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Selection: with tag uncertainty-propagation [22 articles] 

 

The importance of being modular

  
Science, Vol. 357, No. 6347. (14 July 2017), pp. 128-129, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan8075

Abstract

In the 1970s, ecologists began to speculate that modular systems—which are organized into blocks or modules—can better contain perturbations and are therefore more resilient against external damage. This simple concept can be applied to any networked system, be it an ecosystem, cellular metabolism, traffic flows, human disease contagion, a power grid, or an economy. However, experimental evidence has been lacking. On page 199 of this issue, Gilarranz et al. provide empirical evidence showing that modular networked systems do indeed have an ...

 

Effects of network modularity on the spread of perturbation impact in experimental metapopulations

  
Science, Vol. 357, No. 6347. (14 July 2017), pp. 199-201, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4122

Abstract

[Modularity limits disturbance effects] The networks that form natural, social, and technological systems are vulnerable to the spreading impacts of perturbations. Theory predicts that networks with a clustered or modular structure—where nodes within a module interact more frequently than they do with nodes in other modules—might contain a perturbation, preventing it from spreading to the entire network. Gilarranz et al. conducted experiments with networked populations of springtail (Folsomia candida) microarthropods to show that modularity limits the impact of a local extinction on ...

 

Fuzziness vs. probability

  
International Journal of General Systems, Vol. 17, No. 2-3. (June 1990), pp. 211-240, https://doi.org/10.1080/03081079008935108

Abstract

Fuzziness is explored as an alternative to randomness for describing uncertainty. The new sets-as-points geometric view of fuzzy sets is developed. This view identifies a fuzzy set with a point in a unit hypercube and a nonfuzzy set with a vertex of the cube. Paradoxes of two-valued logic and set theory, such as Russell's paradox, correspond to the midpoint of the fuzzy cube. The fundamental questions of fuzzy theory—How fuzzy is a fuzzy set? How much is one fuzzy set a ...

 

Modeling the probability of resource use: the effect of, and dealing with, detecting a species imperfectly

  
Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 70, No. 2. (1 April 2006), pp. 367-374, https://doi.org/10.2193/0022-541x(2006)70[367:mtporu]2.0.co;2

Abstract

Resource-selection probability functions and occupancy models are powerful methods of identifying areas within a landscape that are highly used by a species. One common design/analysis method for estimation of a resource-selection probability function is to classify a sample of units as used or unused and estimate the probability of use as a function of independent variables using, for example, logistic regression. This method requires that resource units are correctly classified as unused (i.e., the species is never undetected in a used ...

 

Take the time and effort to correct misinformation

  
Nature, Vol. 540, No. 7632. (6 December 2016), pp. 171-171, https://doi.org/10.1038/540171a

Abstract

Scientists should challenge online falsehoods and inaccuracies — and harness the collective power of the Internet to fight back, argues Phil Williamson. [Excerpt] [...] Most researchers who have tried to engage online with ill-informed journalists or pseudoscientists will be familiar with Brandolini’s law (also known as the Bullshit Asymmetry Principle): the amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than that needed to produce it. Is it really worth taking the time and effort to challenge, correct and clarify ...

 

Accuracy of cited references: the role of citation databases

  
College & Research Libraries, Vol. 67, No. 4. (01 July 2006), pp. 292-303, https://doi.org/10.5860/crl.67.4.292

Abstract

The nature and extent of errors made by Science Citation Index ExpandedTM (SCIE) and SciFinder® ScholarTM (SFS) during data entry have been characterized by analysis of more than 5,400 cited articles from 204 randomly selected cited-article lists published in three core chemistry journals. Failure to map cited articles to target-source articles was due to transcription errors, target-source article errors, omitted cited articles, and reason unknown. Mapping error rates ranged from 1.2 to 6.9 percent. SCIE and SFS also were found to ...

 

Characteristics of doctoral students who commit citation errors

  
Library Review, Vol. 55, No. 3. (March 2006), pp. 195-208, https://doi.org/10.1108/00242530610655993

Abstract

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to investigate the citation error rate and quality of reference lists in doctoral dissertation proposals. This research also sought to examine the relationship between perfectionism and frequency of citation errors and the adherence of the reference list to the fidelity of the chosen citation style among doctoral students. Also of interest was to determine which demographic variables predict citation errors and quality of the reference list. [Design/methodology/approach] Participants were 64 doctoral students from various disciplines enrolled in ...

 

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 9. (23 May 2016), pp. 885-890, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3039

Abstract

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios ...

 

Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations

  
Nature Communications, Vol. 7 (21 June 2016), 11872, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11872

Abstract

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny, unlike the influence of soil data. Here we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected for GGCM simulations to weather-induced yield variability. Without fertilizer application, soil-type-related yield variability generally outweighs the simulated inter-annual variability in yield due to weather. Increasing applications of ...

 

An assessment of methods and remote-sensing derived covariates for regional predictions of 1 km daily maximum air temperature

  
Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, No. 9. (16 September 2014), pp. 8639-8670, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6098639

Abstract

The monitoring and prediction of biodiversity and environmental changes is constrained by the availability of accurate and spatially contiguous climatic variables at fine temporal and spatial grains. In this study, we evaluate best practices for generating gridded, one-kilometer resolution, daily maximum air temperature surfaces in a regional context, the state of Oregon, USA. Covariates used in the interpolation include remote sensing derived elevation, aspect, canopy height, percent forest cover and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST). Because of missing values, ...

 

Reality check on reproducibility

  
Nature, Vol. 533, No. 7604. (25 May 2016), pp. 437-437, https://doi.org/10.1038/533437a

Abstract

A survey of Nature readers revealed a high level of concern about the problem of irreproducible results. Researchers, funders and journals need to work together to make research more reliable. [Excerpt] Is there a reproducibility crisis in science? Yes, according to the readers of Nature. Two-thirds of researchers who responded to a survey by this journal said that current levels of reproducibility are a major problem. [\n] [...] [\n] What does ‘reproducibility’ mean? Those who study the science of science joke that the definition ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 37

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   tropics   trunk-sucker   tsuga-canadensis   tsuga-chinensis   tsuga-heterophylla   tsuga-mertensiana   tsuga-spp   tundra   turing-completeness   turkey   tuscany   tuta-absoluta   twig-dieback   two-dimensional-gas-chromatography   two-stage-peer-review   udig   ukraine   ulex-europaeus   ulmus   ulmus-americana   ulmus-carpinifolia   ulmus-glabra   ulmus-laevis   ulmus-minor   ulmus-parvifolia   ulmus-procera   ulmus-pumila   ulmus-rubra   ulmus-spp   ulmus-thomasii   umbellularia-californica   umbrella-species   uncertainty   uncertainty-propagation   underfitting   understorey   understorey-species   undisturbed-habitat   uneven-aged-forest   unexpected-effect   ungulate   ungulate-browsing   united-kingdom   united-states   universal-approximation   unknown   unrealistic-expectations   unsupervised-training   upper-treeline   uprooting   urban-areas   urban-forest   urban-habitats   urban-trees   urgent-hpc   url-decay   urocerus-gigas   ursus-arctos   usda   ushahidi   usle   usped   utilization   vaccination   vaccinium-myrtillus   vaccinium-oxycoccos   vaccinium-spp   vaccinium-uliginosum   vaccinium-vitis-idaea   vaccinum-myrtillus   validation   valsa-melanodiscus   variability   variable-selection   variance-partitioning   variation   vascular-plants   vascular-system   vauable   vegetation   vegetation-buffer   vegetation-changes   vegetation-composition   vegetation-diversity   vegetation-dynamics   vegetation-types   vegetative-propagation   veneer   venice   verification-vs-corroboration   veronica-officinalis   vertebrate   verticillium-dahliae   vgi   viburnum-lantana   viburnum-opalus   viburnum-opulus   viburnum-spp   vietnam  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Reproducibility: a tragedy of errors

  
Nature, Vol. 530, No. 7588. (3 February 2016), pp. 27-29, https://doi.org/10.1038/530027a

Abstract

Mistakes in peer-reviewed papers are easy to find but hard to fix, report David B. Allison and colleagues. [Excerpt: Three common errors] As the influential twentieth-century statistician Ronald Fisher (pictured) said: “To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of.” [\n] [...] Frequent errors, once recognized, can be kept out of the literature with targeted education and policies. Three of the most common are ...

 

On the extinction of craft skills with numbers - The case of “Overall, 7.9% of species are predicted to become extinct from climate change.”

  
(December 2015)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] [\n] This paper is about craft skills with numbers and, in particular, about problems with the use of numbers of unknown pedigree. As an example, I will discuss a very striking number that appeared in the mainstream press in early May 20152: a new scientific study was reported to have found that 7.9% of species would become extinct as a result of climate change. What was quite remarkable about this number is that it had two digits: not 10%, not ...

 

The science myths that will not die

  
Nature, Vol. 528, No. 7582. (16 December 2015), pp. 322-325, https://doi.org/10.1038/528322a

Abstract

False beliefs and wishful thinking about the human experience are common. They are hurting people - and holding back science. [Excerpt] [...] Scientists should work to discredit myths, but they also have a responsibility to try to prevent new ones from arising, says Paul Howard-Jones, who studies neuroscience and education at the University of Bristol, UK. “We need to look deeper to understand how they come about in the first place and why they're so prevalent and persistent.” [\n] Some dangerous myths get plenty ...

 

Top tips to make your research irreproducible

  
(8 Apr 2015)

Abstract

It is an unfortunate convention of science that research should pretend to be reproducible; our top tips will help you mitigate this fussy conventionality, enabling you to enthusiastically showcase your irreproducible work. [Excerpt] [...] Irreproducibility is the default setting for all of science, and irreproducible research is particularly common across the computational sciences. [...] By following our starter tips, you can ensure that if your work is wrong, nobody will be able to check it; if it is correct, you will make everyone else do disproportionately ...

 

Read before you cite!

  
Complex Systems, Vol. 14, No. 3. (2003), pp. 269-274

Abstract

We report a method of estimating what percentage of people who cited a paper had actually read it. The method is based on a stochastic modeling of the citation process that explains empirical studies of misprint distributions in citations (which we show follows a Zipf law). Our estimate is only about 20% of citers read the original. ...

 

Verification of citations: fawlty towers of knowledge?

  
Interfaces, Vol. 38, No. 2. (April 2008), pp. 125-139, https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1070.0317

Abstract

The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions of relevant papers, incorrect references, and quotation errors that misreport findings. We discuss key studies in these areas. We then examine citations to “Estimating nonresponse bias in mail surveys,” one of the most frequently cited papers from the Journal of Marketing Research, to illustrate these issues. This paper is especially useful in testing for quotation errors because it provides specific operational recommendations on adjusting for nonresponse ...

 

Retraction challenges

  
Nature, Vol. 514, No. 7520. (1 October 2014), pp. 5-5, https://doi.org/10.1038/514005a

Abstract

[Excerpt] A key responsibility of any journal is to correct erroneous information that it has published, and as quickly as possible. [\n] Easily said! It is straightforward enough for authors to correct a paper. But if it becomes clear after publication that the conclusions are fundamentally flawed, a retraction is appropriate — and things can then get a lot more challenging. [...] [\n] That is why the literature of retractions in high-impact journals might be skewed towards misconduct that has been proved through ...

 

Academic urban legends

  
Social Studies of Science, Vol. 44, No. 4. (1 August 2014), pp. 638-654, https://doi.org/10.1177/0306312714535679

Abstract

Many of the messages presented in respectable scientific publications are, in fact, based on various forms of rumors. Some of these rumors appear so frequently, and in such complex, colorful, and entertaining ways that we can think of them as academic urban legends. The explanation for this phenomenon is usually that authors have lazily, sloppily, or fraudulently employed sources, and peer reviewers and editors have not discovered these weaknesses in the manuscripts during evaluation. To illustrate this phenomenon, I draw upon ...

 

Obituary: Sandy Island (1876-2012)

  
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 94, No. 15. (09 April 2013), pp. 141-142, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013eo150001

Abstract

In October 2012, scientists investigating the tectonic evolution of the eastern Coral Sea aboard the R/V Southern Surveyor uncovered a quirky discrepancy in maps of seafloor topography during their 25-day voyage. While on a transit leg between dredge sites, the ship passed near a purported island between the Chesterfield Islands and Nereus Reef that appeared in numerous scientific data sets and in Google Earth™ with the label “Sandy Island.” However, this 25-kilometer-long and 5-kilometer-wide feature was absent from the hydrographic charts ...

 

Assessing the accuracy of land cover change with imperfect ground reference data

  
Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 114, No. 10. (19 October 2010), pp. 2271-2285, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.05.003

Abstract

The ground data used as a reference in the validation of land cover change products are often not an ideal gold standard but degraded by error. The effects of ground reference data error on the accuracy of land cover change detection and the accuracy of estimates of the extent of change were evaluated. Twelve data sets were simulated to allow the exploration of the impacts of a spectrum of ground data imperfections on the estimation of the producer's and user's accuracy ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/uncertainty-propagation

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.