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Selection: with tag uncertainty [at least 200 articles] 

 

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 12. (04 December 2017), pp. 2125-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017

Abstract

Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose ...

 

A new definition of complexity in a risk analysis setting

  
Reliability Engineering & System Safety (November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.11.018

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] A new definition of complexity is presented [::] It allows for improved clarity on the links between complexity and risk [::] The idea is to link complexity to activities, and the knowledge about the consequences of these at different levels [Abstract] In this paper, we discuss the concept of complexity in a risk analysis context. Inspired by the work of Johansen and Rausand, a new perspective on complexity is presented which includes several common definitions of complexity as special cases. The idea ...

 

Environmental and geographic variables are effective surrogates for genetic variation in conservation planning

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 48. (28 November 2017), pp. 12755-12760, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711009114

Abstract

[Significance] To protect biodiversity for the long term, nature reserves and other protected areas need to represent a broad range of different genetic types. However, genetic data are expensive and time-consuming to obtain. Here we show that freely available environmental and geographic variables can be used as effective surrogates for genetic data in conservation planning. This means that conservation planners can, with some confidence, design protected area systems to represent intraspecific genetic diversity without investing in expensive programs to obtain and analyze ...

 

Rules of thumb for judging ecological theories

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 19, No. 3. (March 2004), pp. 121-126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2003.11.004

Abstract

An impressive fit to historical data suggests to biologists that a given ecological model is highly valid. Models often achieve this fit at the expense of exaggerated complexity that is not justified by empirical evidence. Because overfitted theories complement the traditional assumption that ecology is `messy', they generally remain unquestioned. Using predation theory as an example, we suggest that a fit-driven appraisal of model value is commonly misdirected; although fit to historical data can be important, the simplicity and generality of ...

 

The strategy of model building in population biology

  
American Scientist, Vol. 54, No. 4. (1966), pp. 421-431

Abstract

[Excerpt: Cluster of models] A mathematical model is neither an hypothesis nor a theory. Unlike the scientific hypothesis, a model is not verifiable directly by experiment. For all models are both true and false. Almost any plausible proposed relation among aspects of nature is likely to be true in the sense that it occurs (although rarely and slightly). Yet all models leave out a lot and are in that sense false, incomplete, inadequate. The validation of a model is not that it ...

 

Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes

  
The American Naturalist, Vol. 142, No. 6. (1 December 1993), pp. 911-927, https://doi.org/10.1086/285580

Abstract

Stochastic factors affecting the demography of a single population are analyzed to determine the relative risks of extinction from demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and random catastrophes. Relative risks are assessed by comparing asymptotic scaling relationships describing how the average time to extinction, T, increases with the carrying capacity of a population, K, under each stochastic factor alone. Stochastic factors are added to a simple model of exponential growth up to K. A critical parameter affecting the extinction dynamics is the ...

 

Open geospatial data: an assessment of global boundary datasets

  
In Proceedings of the 20th annual GIS Research UK (GISRUK 2012) (2012), 35

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusion] Through comparison of GAUL, GADM and UNSALB boundary datasets we found that each dataset has advantages and drawbacks in terms of accuracy and usability, but overall GAUL was the best dataset due to the accuracy and completeness of the dataset. While UNSALB boundaries have the highest rate of accuracy because of validation with national mapping agencies, it is limited in geographic scope. Although GADM has a global scale, many of the boundaries are outdated and it is unclear whether GADM organizers have utilized public feedback ...

 

Global carbon budget 2017

  
Earth System Science Data Discussions (13 November 2017), pp. 1-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production ...

 

Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 12. (13 November 2017), pp. 848-850, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. [\n] Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry did not change from 2014 to 2016, yet there was a record increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This apparent inconsistency is explained by the response of the natural carbon cycle to the 2015–2016 El Niño event, but it raises ...

 

Bias correction in species distribution models: pooling survey and collection data for multiple species

  
Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, No. 4. (1 April 2015), pp. 424-438, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12242

Abstract

[::] Presence-only records may provide data on the distributions of rare species, but commonly suffer from large, unknown biases due to their typically haphazard collection schemes. Presence–absence or count data collected in systematic, planned surveys are more reliable but typically less abundant. [::] We proposed a probabilistic model to allow for joint analysis of presence-only and survey data to exploit their complementary strengths. Our method pools presence-only and presence–absence data for many species and maximizes a joint likelihood, simultaneously estimating and adjusting ...

 

Point process models for presence-only analysis

  
Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, No. 4. (1 April 2015), pp. 366-379, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12352

Abstract

[::] Presence-only data are widely used for species distribution modelling, and point process regression models are a flexible tool that has considerable potential for this problem, when data arise as point events. [::] In this paper, we review point process models, some of their advantages and some common methods of fitting them to presence-only data. [::] Advantages include (and are not limited to) clarification of what the response variable is that is modelled; a framework for choosing the number and location of quadrature ...

 

How have past fire disturbances contributed to the current carbon balance of boreal ecosystems?

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, No. 3. (04 February 2016), pp. 675-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016

Abstract

Boreal fires have immediate effects on regional carbon budgets by emitting CO2 into the atmosphere at the time of burning, but they also have legacy effects by initiating a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. Quantifying these different effects on the current-day pan-boreal (44–84° N) carbon balance and quantifying relative contributions of legacy sinks by past fires is important for understanding and predicting the carbon dynamics in this region. Here we used the global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE–SPITFIRE (Organising Carbon and ...

 

The most recent view of vulnerability

  
In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 70-84

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] Over the past decades, vulnerability research has made considerable progress in understanding some of the root causes and dynamic pressures that influence the progression of vulnerability and raised awareness that disasters are not natural but predominantly a product of social, economic and political conditions (Wisner et al., 2004). [\n] Vulnerability assessments are a response to the call for evidence by decision- makers for use in pre-disaster risk assessment, prevention and reduction, as well as the development and implementation of appropriate preparedness and effective disaster response strategies by providing information on people, communities or regions at risk. [\n] ...

References

  1. Alexander, D., Magni, M., 2013. Mortality in the L'Aquila ( Central Italy ) Earthquake of 6 April 2009. PLOS Current Disasters, (April 2009).
  2. Alexander, D., 2010. The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2(4), 325–342.
  3. Alexander, D., 2013. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: An etymological journey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13 (11), 2707–2716.
 

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible

  
Nature (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22627

Abstract

Analysis suggests that researchers have underestimated how much carbon humanity can emit before reaching this level of warming. [Excerpt] A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will ...

 

The concept of potential natural vegetation: an epitaph?

  
Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 21, No. 6. (December 2010), pp. 1172-1178, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2010.01218.x

Abstract

We discuss the usefulness of the concept of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV), which describes the expected state of mature vegetation in the absence of human intervention. We argue that it is impossible to model PNV because of (i) the methodological problems associated to its definition and (ii) the issues related to the ecosystems dynamics.We conclude that the approach to characterizing PNV is unrealistic and provides scenarios with limited predictive power. In places with a long-term human history, interpretations of PNV need ...

 

Fears rise for US climate report as Trump officials take reins

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (1 August 2017), pp. 15-16, https://doi.org/10.1038/548015a

Abstract

Officials at the US Environmental Protection Agency are consulting global-warming sceptics as they weigh up a technical review. ...

 

Big names in statistics want to shake up much-maligned P value

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (26 July 2017), pp. 16-17, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22375

Abstract

One of scientists’ favourite statistics — the P value — should face tougher standards, say leading researchers. [Excerpt] Science is in the throes of a reproducibility crisis, and researchers, funders and publishers are increasingly worried that the scholarly literature is littered with unreliable results. Now, a group of 72 prominent researchers is targeting what they say is one cause of the problem: weak statistical standards of evidence for claiming new discoveries. [\n] In many disciplines the significance of findings is judged by ...

 

Little evidence for fire-adapted plant traits in Mediterranean climate regions

  
Trends in Plant Science, Vol. 16, No. 2. (20 February 2011), pp. 69-76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tplants.2010.10.007

Abstract

As climate change increases vegetation combustibility, humans are impacted by wildfires through loss of lives and property, leading to an increased emphasis on prescribed burning practices to reduce hazards. A key and pervading concept accepted by most environmental managers is that combustible ecosystems have traditionally burnt because plants are fire adapted. In this opinion article, we explore the concept of plant traits adapted to fire in Mediterranean climates. In the light of major threats to biodiversity conservation, we recommend caution in ...

 

An empirical comparison of model validation techniques for defect prediction models

  
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 43, No. 1. (1 January 2017), pp. 1-18, https://doi.org/10.1109/tse.2016.2584050

Abstract

Defect prediction models help software quality assurance teams to allocate their limited resources to the most defect-prone modules. Model validation techniques, such as k -fold cross-validation, use historical data to estimate how well a model will perform in the future. However, little is known about how accurate the estimates of model validation techniques tend to be. In this paper, we investigate the bias and variance of model validation techniques in the domain of defect prediction. Analysis of 101 public defect datasets ...

 

Resampling methods for meta-model validation with recommendations for evolutionary computation

  
Evolutionary Computation, Vol. 20, No. 2. (16 February 2012), pp. 249-275, https://doi.org/10.1162/evco_a_00069

Abstract

Meta-modeling has become a crucial tool in solving expensive optimization problems. Much of the work in the past has focused on finding a good regression method to model the fitness function. Examples include classical linear regression, splines, neural networks, Kriging and support vector regression. This paper specifically draws attention to the fact that assessing model accuracy is a crucial aspect in the meta-modeling framework. Resampling strategies such as cross-validation, subsampling, bootstrapping, and nested resampling are prominent methods for model validation and ...

 

Combining multiple classifiers: an application using spatial and remotely sensed information for land cover type mapping

  
Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 74, No. 3. (December 2000), pp. 545-556, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0034-4257(00)00145-0

Abstract

This article discusses two new methods for increasing the accuracy of classifiers used land cover mapping. The first method, called the product rule, is a simple and general method of combining two or more classification rules as a single rule. Stacked regression methods of combining classification rules are discussed and compared to the product rule. The second method of increasing classifier accuracy is a simple nonparametric classifier that uses spatial information for classification. Two data sets used for land cover mapping ...

 

Bagging ensemble selection for regression

  
In AI 2012: Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 7691 (2012), pp. 695-706, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35101-3_59

Abstract

Bagging ensemble selection (BES) is a relatively new ensemble learning strategy. The strategy can be seen as an ensemble of the ensemble selection from libraries of models (ES) strategy. Previous experimental results on binary classification problems have shown that using random trees as base classifiers, BES-OOB (the most successful variant of BES) is competitive with (and in many cases, superior to) other ensemble learning strategies, for instance, the original ES algorithm, stacking with linear regression, random forests or boosting. Motivated by ...

 

Bagging ensemble selection

  
In AI 2011: Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Vol. 7106 (2011), pp. 251-260, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-25832-9_26

Abstract

Ensemble selection has recently appeared as a popular ensemble learning method, not only because its implementation is fairly straightforward, but also due to its excellent predictive performance on practical problems. The method has been highlighted in winning solutions of many data mining competitions, such as the Netflix competition, the KDD Cup 2009 and 2010, the UCSD FICO contest 2010, and a number of data mining competitions on the Kaggle platform. In this paper we present a novel variant: bagging ensemble selection. ...

 

When the appeal of a dominant leader is greater than a prestige leader

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 26. (27 June 2017), pp. 6734-6739, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617711114

Abstract

[Significance] We examine why dominant/authoritarian leaders attract support despite the presence of other admired/respected candidates. Although evolutionary psychology supports both dominance and prestige as viable routes for attaining influential leadership positions, extant research lacks theoretical clarity explaining when and why dominant leaders are preferred. Across three large-scale studies we provide robust evidence showing how economic uncertainty affects individuals’ psychological feelings of lack of personal control, resulting in a greater preference for dominant leaders. This research offers important theoretical explanations for why, around ...

 

Global environmental issues and the emergence of Second Order Science

  
Vol. 12803 (1990)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] The fundamental achievements of science, like those of all creative activities, have a timeless quality. The social activity of science, like any other, evolves in response to its changing circumstances, in its objects, methods and social functions. In the high Middle Ages, the independence of secular learning was established in the universities, removed from the monasteries; and the boundary between the sacred and private on the one hand, and the secular and public on the other, was set for ...

 

Fuzziness vs. probability

  
International Journal of General Systems, Vol. 17, No. 2-3. (June 1990), pp. 211-240, https://doi.org/10.1080/03081079008935108

Abstract

Fuzziness is explored as an alternative to randomness for describing uncertainty. The new sets-as-points geometric view of fuzzy sets is developed. This view identifies a fuzzy set with a point in a unit hypercube and a nonfuzzy set with a vertex of the cube. Paradoxes of two-valued logic and set theory, such as Russell's paradox, correspond to the midpoint of the fuzzy cube. The fundamental questions of fuzzy theory—How fuzzy is a fuzzy set? How much is one fuzzy set a ...

 

Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit

  
WIREs Clim Change, Vol. 8, No. 3. (1 May 2017), n/a, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.454

Abstract

Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modeling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of ‘model fit’; that is, how well model results ...

 

Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises

  
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 5, No. 9. (November 2007), pp. 475-482, https://doi.org/10.1890/070037

Abstract

No-analog communities (communities that are compositionally unlike any found today) occurred frequently in the past and will develop in the greenhouse world of the future. The well documented no-analog plant communities of late-glacial North America are closely linked to “novel” climates also lacking modern analogs, characterized by high seasonality of temperature. In climate simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 and B1 emission scenarios, novel climates arise by 2100 AD, primarily in tropical and subtropical regions. These future novel ...

 

Multispecies coalescent delimits structure, not species

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 7. (14 February 2017), pp. 1607-1612, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607921114

Abstract

[Significance] Despite its widespread application to the species delimitation problem, our study demonstrates that what the multispecies coalescent actually delimits is structure. The current implementations of species delimitation under the multispecies coalescent do not provide any way for distinguishing between structure due to population-level processes and that due to species boundaries. The overinflation of species due to the misidentification of general genetic structure for species boundaries has profound implications for our understanding of the generation and dynamics of biodiversity, because any ecological ...

 

A review of the combination among global change factors in forests, shrublands and pastures of the Mediterranean Region: beyond drought effects

  
Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 148 (January 2017), pp. 42-54, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.012

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Different global change factors combine causing unprecedented ecological effects. [::] Much more complex interactions arise when combinations occur together. [::] Drought should be considered when designing and applying management policies. [::] Conserving Mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems is a collective effort. [Abstract] Climate change, alteration of atmospheric composition, land abandonment in some areas and land use intensification in others, wildfires and biological invasions threaten forests, shrublands and pastures all over the world. However, the impacts of the combinations between global change factors are not well understood despite ...

 

Viewing forests through the lens of complex systems science

  
Ecosphere, Vol. 5, No. 1. (January 2014), art1, https://doi.org/10.1890/es13-00182.1

Abstract

Complex systems science provides a transdisciplinary framework to study systems characterized by (1) heterogeneity, (2) hierarchy, (3) self-organization, (4) openness, (5) adaptation, (6) memory, (7) non-linearity, and (8) uncertainty. Complex systems thinking has inspired both theory and applied strategies for improving ecosystem resilience and adaptability, but applications in forest ecology and management are just beginning to emerge. We review the properties of complex systems using four well-studied forest biomes (temperate, boreal, tropical and Mediterranean) as examples. The lens of complex systems ...

 

From management to stewardship: viewing forests as complex adaptive systems in an uncertain world

  
Conservation Letters, Vol. 8, No. 5. (September 2015), pp. 368-377, https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12156

Abstract

The world's forests and forestry sector are facing unprecedented biological, political, social, and climatic challenges. The development of appropriate, novel forest management and restoration approaches that adequately consider uncertainty and adaptability are hampered by a continuing focus on production of a few goods or objectives, strong control of forest structure and composition, and most importantly the absence of a global scientific framework and long-term vision. Ecosystem-based approaches represent a step in the right direction, but are limited in their ability to ...

 

The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions

  
Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, No. 12. (1 December 2006), pp. 2272-2281, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01256.x

Abstract

Climate envelope models (CEMs) have been used to predict the distribution of species under current, past, and future climatic conditions by inferring a species' environmental requirements from localities where it is currently known to occur. CEMs can be evaluated for their ability to predict current species distributions but it is unclear whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally successful in predicting distributions under different climates (i.e. different regions or time periods). We evaluated the ability of CEMs ...

 

Ecological responses to recent climate change

  
Nature, Vol. 416 (2002), pp. 389-395, https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a

Abstract

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological ...

 

Keep it complex

  
Nature, Vol. 468, No. 7327. (23 December 2010), pp. 1029-1031, https://doi.org/10.1038/4681029a

Abstract

When knowledge is uncertain, experts should avoid pressures to simplify their advice. Render decision-makers accountable for decisions, says Andy Stirling. ...

 

Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data

  
Ecological Applications, Vol. 19, No. 1. (January 2009), pp. 181-197, https://doi.org/10.1890/07-2153.1

Abstract

Most methods for modeling species distributions from occurrence records require additional data representing the range of environmental conditions in the modeled region. These data, called background or pseudo-absence data, are usually drawn at random from the entire region, whereas occurrence collection is often spatially biased toward easily accessed areas. Since the spatial bias generally results in environmental bias, the difference between occurrence collection and background sampling may lead to inaccurate models. To correct the estimation, we propose choosing background data with ...

 

Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1704-1711, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x

Abstract

[Aim]  Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. [Location]  The Western Cape of South Africa. [Methods]  We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential ...

 

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 12, No. 5. (1 September 2003), pp. 361-371, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2003.00042.x

Abstract

Modelling strategies for predicting the potential impacts of climate change on the natural distribution of species have often focused on the characterization of a species’ bioclimate envelope. A number of recent critiques have questioned the validity of this approach by pointing to the many factors other than climate that play an important part in determining species distributions and the dynamics of distribution changes. Such factors include biotic interactions, evolutionary change and dispersal ability. This paper reviews and evaluates criticisms of bioclimate ...

 

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1729-1749, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x

Abstract

Abstract Aim  This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location  State of Vaud, ...

 

Modeling the probability of resource use: the effect of, and dealing with, detecting a species imperfectly

  
Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 70, No. 2. (1 April 2006), pp. 367-374, https://doi.org/10.2193/0022-541x(2006)70[367:mtporu]2.0.co;2

Abstract

Resource-selection probability functions and occupancy models are powerful methods of identifying areas within a landscape that are highly used by a species. One common design/analysis method for estimation of a resource-selection probability function is to classify a sample of units as used or unused and estimate the probability of use as a function of independent variables using, for example, logistic regression. This method requires that resource units are correctly classified as unused (i.e., the species is never undetected in a used ...

 

The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forests ecosystems: an overview

  
International Journal of Biometeorology, Vol. 44, No. 2. (2000), pp. 67-75, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840000066

Abstract

An overview is presented of the phenological models relevant for boreal coniferous, temperate-zone deciduous and Mediterranean coniferous forest ecosystems. The phenology of the boreal forests is mainly driven by temperature, affecting the timing of the start of the growing season and thereby its duration, and the level of frost hardiness and thereby the reduction of foliage area and photosynthetic capacity by severe frost events. The phenology of temperate-zone forests is also mainly driven by temperature. Since temperate-zone forests are mostly mixed-species ...

 

Estimating abundance from repeated presence-absence data or point counts

  
Ecology, Vol. 84, No. 3. (March 2003), pp. 777-790, https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0777:eafrpa]2.0.co;2

Abstract

We describe an approach for estimating occupancy rate or the proportion of area occupied when heterogeneity in detection probability exists as a result of variation in abundance of the organism under study. The key feature of such problems, which we exploit, is that variation in abundance induces variation in detection probability. Thus, heterogeneity in abundance can be modeled as heterogeneity in detection probability. Moreover, this linkage between heterogeneity in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability allows one to exploit a heterogeneous ...

 

Soil erosion assessment - Mind the gap

  
Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 43, No. 24. (28 December 2016), 2016GL071480, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071480

Abstract

Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors—long studied and referred to as “geomorphic external variability”, and microscale effects, introduced as “geomorphic internal variability.” The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at ...

 

BIOMOD - A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

  
Ecography, Vol. 32, No. 3. (1 June 2009), pp. 369-373, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x

Abstract

BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions ...

 

Multi-dimensional weighted median: the module "wmedian" of the Mastrave modelling library

  
In Semantic Array Programming with Mastrave - Introduction to Semantic Computational Modelling (2012)

Abstract

Weighted median (WM) filtering is a well known technique for dealing with noisy images and a variety of WM-based algorithms have been proposed as effective ways for reducing uncertainties or reconstructing degraded signals by means of available information with heterogeneous reliability. Here a generalized module for applying weighted median filtering to multi-dimensional arrays of information with associated multi-dimensional arrays of corresponding weights is presented. Weights may be associated to single elements or to groups of elements along given dimensions of the ...

 

Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods

  
Global Change Biology, Vol. 10, No. 9. (September 2004), pp. 1618-1626, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x

Abstract

Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using ...

 

The global methane budget 2000–2012

  
Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, No. 2. (12 December 2016), pp. 697-751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016

Abstract

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety ...

 

Five selfish reasons to work reproducibly

  
Genome Biology, Vol. 16, No. 1. (8 December 2015), 274, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13059-015-0850-7

Abstract

And so, my fellow scientists: ask not what you can do for reproducibility; ask what reproducibility can do for you! Here, I present five reasons why working reproducibly pays off in the long run and is in the self-interest of every ambitious, career-oriented scientist. [Excerpt] [::Reproducibility: what's in it for me?] In this article, I present five reasons why working reproducibly pays off in the long run and is in the self-interest of every ambitious, career-oriented scientist. [::] Reason number 1: reproducibility helps to avoid ...

 

Statistical analysis

  
In Science: editorial policies (2016)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Statistical analysis] Generally, authors should describe statistical methods with enough detail to enable a knowledgeable reader with access to the original data to verify the results. [::] Data pre-processing steps such as transformations, re-coding, re-scaling, normalization, truncation, and handling of below detectable level readings and outliers should be fully described; any removal or modification of data values must be fully acknowledged and justified. [::] [...] [::] The number of sampled units, N, upon which each reported statistic is based must be stated. [::] For continuous ...

 

Welcome to postnormal times

  
Futures, Vol. 42, No. 5. (20 June 2010), pp. 435-444, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.028

Abstract

All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks ...

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