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Selection: with tag temperature [142 articles] 

 

Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics

  
The American Naturalist, Vol. 101, No. 919. (1 May 1967), pp. 233-249, https://doi.org/10.1086/282487

Abstract

This paper is designed to draw attention to the relation between tropical climatic uniformity at a given site and the effectiveness of topographic barriers adjacent to the site in preventing movements of plants and animals. This is not an attempt to explain tropical species diversity (see Pianka, 1966, for a review of this subject), but rather to discuss a factor that should be considered in any discussion of the relation between topographic and climatic diversity, and population isolation. Simpson (1964) states ...

 

Stay or go - How topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change

  
Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics (November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2017.09.008

Abstract

In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options − they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (“stay”), or they can move to track their climatic niches (“go”). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the ...

 

Effects of slope angle and aspect on plant cover and species richness in a humid Mediterranean badland

  
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 39, No. 13. (October 2014), pp. 1705-1716, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3549

Abstract

Soil erosion is one of the most severe land degradation processes in the Mediterranean region. Although badlands occupy a relatively small fraction of the Mediterranean area, their erosion rates are very high. Many studies have investigated to what extent vegetation controls soil erosion rates. This study, however, deals with the impact of erosion on vegetation establishment. In semi-arid badlands of the Mediterranean, soil water availability constitutes the main limiting factor for vegetation development. As a consequence, south-facing slopes are typically less ...

 

Large wildland fires and extreme temperatures in Sardinia (Italy)

  
iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Vol. 7, No. 3. (02 June 2014), pp. 162-169, https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor1090-007

Abstract

Heat-wave events are commonly recognized as adverse impacts on agriculture, forests, and economic activities. Several studies showed that future climate changes in the western Mediterranean Basin will lead to an increase in extreme weather events, mainly in the summer season. For this reason, it is crucial to improve our knowledge and investigate the effects of extreme temperature events on wildland fire activity. This work analyses the relation between high temperature days (air temperature higher than 25°C at 850hPa) and large wildland ...

 

The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

  
Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 67, No. 3-4. (June 2009), pp. 227-236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.013

Abstract

Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in ...

 

Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 14, No. 1. (23 January 2014), pp. 143-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-143-2014

Abstract

Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean ...

 

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 178, No. 4. (1 June 2008), pp. 719-739, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x

Abstract

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced ...

 

Oak decline as illustrated through plant–climate interactions near the northern edge of species range

  
The Botanical Review, Vol. 82, No. 1. (2016), pp. 1-23, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12229-016-9160-3

Abstract

This paper investigates historical growth and climate records among the oak sites representing the northern edge of species range in northernmost Europe (Finland). This is to characterize plant–climate interactions for a multitude of sites where oak decline has recently been observed and understand this most recent decline in the context of the past decline studies elsewhere. Further, our paper demonstrates the procedures the tree-ring data can be used in isolating those factors significantly contributing to decline. Our findings point towards complex ...

 

Climate-driven tree mortality: insights from the piñon pine die-off in the United States

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 200, No. 2. (October 2013), pp. 301-303, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12464

Abstract

The global climate is changing, and a range of negative effects on plants has already been observed and will likely continue into the future. One of the most apparent consequences of climate change is widespread tree mortality (Fig. 1). Extensive tree die-offs resulting from recent climate change have been documented across a range of forest types on all forested continents (Allen et al., 2010). The exact physiological mechanisms causing this mortality are not yet well understood (e.g. McDowell, 2011), but they ...

 

Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:tiewac>2.3.co;2

Abstract

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...

 

Why input matters: selection of climate data sets for modelling the potential distribution of a treeline species in the Himalayan region

  
Ecological Modelling, Vol. 359 (2017), pp. 92-102

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Generalized Linear Models were used to model the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the Himalayan region. [::] Evaluation of predictive ability between climate data sets derived from different statistical methods. [::] Comparison of ‘interpolated’ (i.e. WORLDCLIM) and ‘quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling’ (i.e. CHELSA) climate data. [::] Models based CHELSA climate data had higher predictive power, WORLDCLIM consistently overpredicted the potential habitat. [::] Unmindful usage of climatic variables for environmental niche models may potentially cause misleading projections. [Abstract] Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ...

 

Modelling the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the Himalaya

  
Global Ecology and Conservation, Vol. 11 (July 2017), pp. 69-83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2017.04.003

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] We modelled for the first time potential distribution of Betula utilis in the Himalayan mountains on a broad scale. [::] Two temperature and three precipitation variables are useful for predicting the current potential distribution of B. utilis. [::] We applied Generalized Linear Models and evaluated model performance using a multi-faceted approach. [::] Comparison between the current predictions and the distribution range decribed in the vegetation map of Schweinfurth (1957). [::] New starting point for modelling treeline dynamics and treeline shifts in the Himalaya under ...

 

Global risk of deadly heat

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 7. (19 June 2017), pp. 501-506, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Abstract

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published ...

 

New temperature-based models for predicting global solar radiation

  
Applied Energy, Vol. 179 (October 2016), pp. 437-450, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.006

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. [::] The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. [::] The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. [::] The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. [::] The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. [Abstract] This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at ...

 

WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas

  
International Journal of Climatology (15 May 2017), https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086

Abstract

We created a new dataset of spatially interpolated monthly climate data for global land areas at a very high spatial resolution (approximately 1 km2). We included monthly temperature (minimum, maximum and average), precipitation, solar radiation, vapour pressure and wind speed, aggregated across a target temporal range of 1970–2000, using data from between 9000 and 60 000 weather stations. Weather station data were interpolated using thin-plate splines with covariates including elevation, distance to the coast and three satellite-derived covariates: maximum and minimum land surface ...

 

Silver fir defoliation likelihood is related to negative growth trends and high warming sensitivity at their southernmost distribution limit

  
ISRN Forestry, Vol. 2012 (2012), pp. 1-8, https://doi.org/10.5402/2012/437690

Abstract

Changes in radial growth have been used to estimate tree decline probability since they may indicate tree responses to long- and short-term stressors. We used visual assessments of crown defoliation, an indicator of decline, and retrospective tree-ring analyses to determine whether climate-growth sensitivity and tree growth rates may be used as predictors of tree die-off probability in Abies alba (silver fir) at the Spanish Pyrenees. We used climatic data to calculate standardized temperature and precipitation data and drought indexes. Basal area ...

 

Do changes in spatial distribution, structure and abundance of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) indicate its decline?

  
Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 261, No. 4. (08 February 2011), pp. 844-854, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.12.014

Abstract

Silver fir decline was investigated based on changes in spatial distribution of fir, fir abundance in forest stands, dbh (age) structure of fir, and abundance of fir regeneration. The authors used a large-scale approach to study the dynamics of silver fir over nearly 40 years. Based on Silva-SI, a spatial information system, the majority of total forest area in Slovenia was analysed for changes in the distribution of silver fir in the period 1970–2008 using artificial neural networks (ANNs), with respect ...

 

Meteorological droughts in Europe: events and impacts - Past trends and future projections

  

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive Summary] Observational records from 1950 onwards and climate projections for the 21st century provide evidence that droughts are a recurrent climate feature in large parts of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean, but also in western, south-eastern and central Europe. Trends over the past 60 years show an increasing frequency, duration and intensity of droughts in these regions, while a negative trend has been observed in north-eastern Europe. With a changing climate, this tendency is likely to be reinforced during the 21st century, affecting a wide range of ...

 

Evidence of divergent selection for drought and cold tolerance at landscape and local scales in Abies alba Mill. in the French Mediterranean Alps

  
Molecular Ecology, Vol. 25, No. 3. (February 2016), pp. 776-794, https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13516

Abstract

Understanding local adaptation in forest trees is currently a key research and societal priority. Geographically and ecologically marginal populations provide ideal case studies, because environmental stress along with reduced gene flow can facilitate the establishment of locally adapted populations. We sampled European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees in the French Mediterranean Alps, along the margin of its distribution range, from pairs of high- and low-elevation plots on four different mountains situated along a 170-km east–west transect. The analysis of 267 ...

 

Environmental versus geographical determinants of genetic structure in two subalpine conifers

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 201, No. 1. (January 2014), pp. 180-192, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12476

Abstract

[::] Alpine ecosystems are facing rapid human-induced environmental changes, and so more knowledge about tree adaptive potential is needed. This study investigated the relative role of isolation by distance (IBD) versus isolation by adaptation (IBA) in explaining population genetic structure in Abies alba and Larix decidua, based on 231 and 233 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) sampled across 36 and 22 natural populations, respectively, in the Alps and Apennines. [::] Genetic structure was investigated for both geographical and environmental groups, using analysis of ...

 

Temperature extremes: effect on plant growth and development

  
Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 10, Part A (2015), pp. 4-10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001

Abstract

Temperature is a primary factor affecting the rate of plant development. Warmer temperatures expected with climate change and the potential for more extreme temperature events will impact plant productivity. Pollination is one of the most sensitive phenological stages to temperature extremes across all species and during this developmental stage temperature extremes would greatly affect production. Few adaptation strategies are available to cope with temperature extremes at this developmental stage other than to select for plants which shed pollen during the cooler ...

 

Terrestrial ecosystems, soil and forests

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 153-182, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] Observed climate change has had many impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, such as changes in soil conditions, advances in phenological stages, altitudinal and latitudinal migration of plant and animal species (generally northwards and upwards), and changes in species interactions and species composition in communities, including local extinctions. [::] The relative importance of climate change as a major driver of biodiversity and ecosystem change is projected to increase further in the future. In addition to climate change, human efforts to mitigate and adapt to ...

References

  1. Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Eickhout, B., 2011. Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: An example for plant species in Europe. Regional Environmental Change 11, 143–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0161-1 .
  2. Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A.,
 

Executive summary

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 12-30, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation ...

References

  1. Ciscar, J.-C., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A. K., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Van Doorslaer, B., Barrios, S., Ibáñez, N., Forzieri, G., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J. I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Van Regemorter, D., Revesz, T., Vandyck, T.,
 

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report

  
Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive summary] Key messages [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy ...

 

Spatial and seasonal variations of air temperature lapse rates in Alpine regions

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 16, No. 7. (1 April 2003), pp. 1032-1046, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<1032:sasvoa>2.0.co;2

Abstract

Air temperature decrease with altitude was estimated by simple linear regression for several regions around northern Italy for minimum, maximum, and mean monthly temperatures. The comparison of the gradients with previous works revealed the absence of a lapse rate seasonal pattern in most earlier studies. Such inconsistencies in other analyses were demonstrated to be largely due to insufficient climatic stations in each area, and incomplete temporal coverage. These problems were solved here by using 269 stations in northern Italy, 205 in ...

 

Role of geographical provenance in the response of silver fir seedlings to experimental warming and drought

  
Tree Physiology, Vol. 36, No. 10. (October 2016), pp. 1236-1246, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpw049

Abstract

Changes in climate can alter the distribution and population dynamics of tree species by altering their recruitment patterns, especially at range edges. However, geographical patterns of genetic diversity could buffer the negative consequences of changing climate at rear range edges where populations might also harbour individuals with drought-adapted genotypes. Silver fir ( Abies alba Mill.) reaches its south-western distribution limit in the Spanish Pyrenees, where recent climatic dieback events have disproportionately affected westernmost populations. We hypothesized that silver fir populations from ...

 

Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria

  
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 104, No. 4. (15 September 2000), pp. 255-271, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-1923(00)00170-2

Abstract

Using daily observations of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and humidity from 24 stations spanning a large elevation gradient in Austria, we tested several previously defined algorithms for estimating daily radiation and humidity. The estimation algorithms were first tested independently, and then combined, resulting in a combined algorithm for estimating both radiation and humidity that relies only on temperature and precipitation inputs. Mean absolute errors (MAE) for joint radiation and humidity estimates were 2.52 MJ m −2 per day and 85.6 Pa, respectively, close to values ...

 

Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity

  
Science, Vol. 313, No. 5789. (18 August 2006), pp. 940-943, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128834

Abstract

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and ...

 

Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure across a Mediterranean fire-prone area

  
Natural Hazards In Natural Hazards, Vol. 71, No. 3. (2014), pp. 1389-1418, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0951-0

Abstract

We evaluated the spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure in a fire-prone Mediterranean area (Sardinia, Italy) in relation to changes in ignition patterns, weather, suppression activities, and land uses. We also used wildfire simulations to identify fine-scale changes in wildfire exposure of important features on the island. Sardinia experienced a sharp reduction in fire number and area burned between the periods 1980–1994 and 1995–2009. Despite this decrease, losses and fatalities from wildfires continue. This suggests that localized areas and seasons ...

 

On the relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature

  
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 31, No. 2. (May 1984), pp. 159-166, https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(84)90017-0

Abstract

A relationship between atmospheric transmittance and the daily range of air temperature is developed. The relationship is T t = A [1— exp (— BΔT c )] where T t is the daily total atmospheric transmittance, ΔT is the daily range of air temperature, and A, B, and C are empirical coefficients, determined for a particular location from measured solar radiation data. Tests on three data sets indicate that 70–90% of the variation in daily solar radiation can be accounted for ...

 

Climate-induced forest dieback: an escalating global phenomenon?

  
Unasylva, Vol. 60, No. 231-232. (2009), pp. 43-49

Abstract

Forests, which today cover 30 percent of the world’s land surface (FAO, 2006), are being rapidly and directly transformed in many areas by the impacts of expanding human populations and economies. Less evident are the pervasive effects of ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Recent examples of drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback (defined here as tree mortality noticeably above usual mortality levels) are being documented from all forested continents, making it possible ...

 

Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

  
Evolutionary Applications, Vol. 1, No. 1. (1 February 2008), pp. 95-111, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00013.x

Abstract

Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small ...

 

Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient

  
Ecology, Vol. 92, No. 1. (2011), pp. 121-132, https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1843.1

Abstract

We provide an empirical, global test of the varying constraints hypothesis, which predicts systematic heterogeneity in the relative importance of biomass resources to burn and atmospheric conditions suitable to burning (weather/climate) across a spatial gradient of long-term resource availability. Analyses were based on relationships between monthly global wildfire activity, soil moisture, and mid-tropospheric circulation data from 2001 to 2007, synthesized across a gradient of long-term averages in resources (net primary productivity), annual temperature, and terrestrial biome.We demonstrate support for the varying ...

 

Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, No. 45. (09 November 2010), pp. 19167-19170, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003669107

Abstract

Recent bursts in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence climate change and humans might have on future fire activity. Comparatively little is known, however, about the relative importance of these factors in shaping global fire history. Here we use fire and climate modeling, combined with land cover and population estimates, to gain a better understanding of the forces driving global fire trends. Our model successfully reproduces global fire activity record over the last millennium and ...

 

Current methods to assess fire danger potential

  
In Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping, Vol. 4 (1 September 2003), pp. 21-61, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812791177_0002

Abstract

Abstract A review of the main operational systems for fire risk/danger rating is presented in this chapter. The systems included in the revision are a European proposal based on the Fire Potential Index and a structural risk index, the US National Fire Danger Rating System, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, the Australian and the New Zealand systems. The basis and different components of these danger rating methods are presented and commented. ...

 

The National Fire-Danger Rating System: basic equations

  
Vol. PSW-82 (1985)

Abstract

Updating the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) was completed in 1977, and operational use of it was begun the next year. The System provides a guide to wildfire control and suppression by its indexes that measure the relative potential of initiating fires. Such fires do not behave erratically–they spread without spotting through continuous ground fuels. Estimates of fire potential have a basis in the mathematical models used for fire behavior. The fire manager must select the fuel model that best represents ...

 

Meteorological aspects of forest fire danger rating

  
Journal of the South African Forestry Association, Vol. 29, No. 1. (1 January 1957), pp. 31-38, https://doi.org/10.1080/03759873.1957.9630816

Abstract

The effect of past weather conditions on inflammability and the influence of weather on fire behaviour are discussed. Using a method of deriving inflammability from rainfall, temperature and humidity data the frequency of days of high inflammability in January, February and March in the Cape over eight years is derived and shows a maximum in mid-February. With the use of a burning index meter daily values of fire danger rating at the Cape for the same months in 1953–1955 are derived. ...

 

US exposure to multiple landscape stressors and climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 16, No. 7. (2016), pp. 2129-2140, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0934-2

Abstract

We examined landscape exposure to wildfire potential, insects and disease risk, and urban and exurban development for the conterminous US (CONUS). Our analysis relied on spatial data used by federal agencies to evaluate these stressors nationally. We combined stressor data with a climate change exposure metric to identify when temperature is likely to depart from historical conditions and become “unprecedented.” We used a neighborhood analysis procedure based on key stressor thresholds within a geographic information system to examine the extent of ...

 

On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894-2010)

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 22, No. 4. (2013), 493, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf12003

Abstract

Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air ...

 

Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire

  
Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 409, No. 18. (August 2011), pp. 3472-3481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032

Abstract

Identifying and quantifying the statistical relationships between climate and anthropogenic drivers of fire is important for global biophysical modelling of wildfire and other Earth system processes. This study used regression tree and random forest analysis on global data for various climatic and human variables to establish their relative importance. The main interactions found at the global scale also apply regionally: greatest wildfire burned area is associated with high temperature (> 28 °C), intermediate annual rainfall (350–1100 mm), and prolonged dry periods (which varies by ...

 

A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80)

  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 4. (1 April 1988), pp. 441-452, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1988)027<0441:asotro>2.0.co;2

Abstract

The relation between meteorological variables and the monthly area burned by wildfire from May to August 1953–80 in nine Canadian “provinces” was investigated. A purely statistical approach to estimating the monthly provincial area burned, using meteorological variables as predictors, succeeded in explaining 30% of the variance west of Lake Nipigon and about 11% east of Lake Nipigon. [\n] Long sequences of days with less than 1.5 mm of rain or days with relative humidities less than 60% proved to have the highest ...

 

Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

  
Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 90, No. 8. (25 June 2009), pp. 2642-2651, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.02.011

Abstract

Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. A probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week ...

 

Climate change: the 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems

  
Science, Vol. 354, No. 6311. (28 October 2016), pp. 465-468, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah5015

Abstract

[A warming limit for the Mediterranean basin] Pollen cores from sediments provide rich detail on the history of vegetation and climate in the Mediterranean during the Holocene (the most recent ~10,000 years). Guiot and Cramer used this information as a baseline against which to compare predictions of future climate and vegetation under different climate-change scenarios. Vegetation and land-use systems observed in the Holocene records may persist under a 1.5°C warming above preindustrial temperature levels. A 2°C warming, however, is likely over the ...

 

Regional climate hindcast simulations within EURO-CORDEX: evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble

  
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, No. 3. (16 March 2015), pp. 603-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015

Abstract

In the current work we present six hindcast WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) simulations for the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) domain with different configurations in microphysics, convection and radiation for the time period 1990–2008. All regional model simulations are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and have the same spatial resolution (0.44°). These simulations are evaluated for surface temperature, precipitation, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface and total cloud cover. The analysis of the WRF ensemble ...

 

Projections of climate change indices of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of bias-adjusted high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 121, No. 10. (27 May 2016), pp. 2015JD024411-5511, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024411

Abstract

Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate ...

 

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

  
Scientific Data, Vol. 4 (Sep 2017), 170122, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122

Abstract

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. ...

 

CHELSA climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas (Version 1.1)

  

Abstract

CHELSA_v1.1 (http://chelsa-climate.org/) is a high resolution (30 arc sec, ~1 km) climate data set for the earth land surface areas. It includes monthly and annual mean temperature and precipitation patterns as well as derived bioclimatic and interannual parameters for the time period 1979-2013. CHELSA_v1.1 is based on a quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling of the ERA interim global circulation model (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim) with a GPCC (https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/gpcc/gpcc.html) and GHCN (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnm/) bias correction. ...

 

Increasing daily wildfire risk in the Acadian Forest Region of Nova Scotia, Canada, under future climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 7. (2015), pp. 1447-1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0698-5

Abstract

A conceptual system dynamic model of the impact of future climate change on fire risk in the Nova Scotian Acadian Forest Region (NS AFR) was developed, clarifying the influence of positive and negative drivers of future fire risk. Weights of relative importance for seven wildfire risk drivers identified in the conceptual model were elicited through an analytical hierarchy process. Expert participants identified precipitation, temperature, and local tree species composition as the most important determinants of future fire risk. Fire weather variables ...

 

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (10 October 2016), 201607171, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113

Abstract

[Significance] Increased forest fire activity across the western United States in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. Although numerous factors aided the recent rise in fire activity, observed warming and drying have significantly increased fire-season fuel aridity, fostering a more favorable fire environment across forested systems. We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the ...

 

Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

  
Nature, Vol. 529, No. 7587. (20 January 2016), pp. 477-483, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542

Abstract

Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries. ...

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