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Selection: with tag spatial-spread [33 articles] 


Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 24. (12 June 2018), pp. 6243-6248,


[Significance] This study is a multigeneral circulation model, multiscenario modeling exercise developed to quantify the dengue-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C above preindustrial levels in Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimate the impact of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases and provide insights about the regions and periods most likely affected by changes in the length of the transmission season. Here, we show that future climate change may amplify dengue ...


Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: lessons learned and perspectives

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 294 (April 2013), pp. 11-22,


[Abstract] Extreme fire events, also referred to as “megafires,” are not uncommon events on a global scale; they tend to happen a steady frequency in different parts of the world, although, at a local or regional scale, they constitute unique and severe fire episodes. Even if there is not a complete agreement on the term, megafires often refers to those fire events that cause catastrophic damages in terms of human casualties, economic losses, or both. In this article we analyze some of ...


Predicting climate change effects on wildfires requires linking processes across scales

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, No. 1. (January 2011), pp. 99-112,


Accurate process‐based prediction of climate change effects on wildfires requires coupling processes across orders of magnitude of time and space scales, because climate dynamic processes operate at relatively large scales (e.g., hemispherical and centennial), but fire behavior processes operate at relatively small scales (e.g., molecules and microseconds). In this review, we outline some of the current understanding of the processes by which climate/meteorology controls wildfire behavior by focusing on four critical stages of wildfire development: (1) fuel drying, (2) ignition, (3) ...


New crop pest takes Africa at lightning speed

Science, Vol. 356, No. 6337. (04 May 2017), pp. 473-474,


The fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) is marching across Africa and destroying maize fields with an astonishing speed, after arriving from the Western Hemisphere at least 16 months ago. The damage to maize could total $3 billion in the next 12 months. Eventually, damage could be limited with a range of pest-management techniques, including plant extracts such as neem oil or biopesticides based on viruses that infect armyworms. Parasitoid wasps could serve as biological control. Planting insect-repellant legumes alongside the maize seems ...


How drought-induced forest die-off alters microclimate and increases fuel loadings and fire potentials

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 25, No. 8. (2016), 819,


Forest die-offs associated with drought and heat have recently occurred across the globe, raising concern that associated changes in fuels and microclimate could link initial die-off disturbance to subsequent fire disturbance. Despite widespread concern, little empirical data exist. Following forest die-off in the Northern Jarrah Forest, south-western Australia, we quantified fuel dynamics and associated microclimate for die-off and control plots. Sixteen months post die-off, die-off plots had significantly increased 1-h fuels (11.8 vs 9.8 tonnes ha–1) but not larger fuel classes ...


Fire behaviour knowledge in Australia: a synthesis of disciplinary and stakeholder knowledge on fire spread prediction capability and application



[Executive summary] This project undertook a survey of the fire behaviour knowledge currently used by operational fire behaviour analysts (FBANs) in Australia and New Zealand for the purpose of predicting the behaviour and spread of bushfires. This included a review of the science, applicability and validation of current fire behaviour models, an examination of the fire perimeter propagation software currently being used by FBANs, and a survey of those FBANs to determine current work practices when carrying out fire behaviour predictions. ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 38

(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   soils   solanum-dulcamara   solanum-spp   solar-activity   solar-energy   solar-radiation   solaris   solid-phase-microextraction   somalia   sonneratia-apetala   soot   sophora-chrysophylla   sophora-secundiflora   sophora-spp   sorbus-aria   sorbus-aucuparia   sorbus-caucasigena   sorbus-domestica   sorbus-intermedia   sorbus-spp   sorbus-subfusca   sorbus-torminalis   sorex-spp   south-america   south-asia   southeast-asia   southeastern-europe   southern-africa   southern-alps   southern-annular-mode--antarctic-oscillation   southern-asia   southern-europe   southern-oscillation   spain   spartium-junceum   spathodea-campanulata   spatial-analysis   spatial-disaggregation   spatial-ecology   spatial-interpolation   spatial-pattern   spatial-prioritization   spatial-resolution   spatial-spread   spatio-temporal-disaggregation   spatio-temporal-scale   spatiotemporal-change   species   species-adaptation   species-area-relationships   species-association   species-biology   species-control   species-decline   species-description   species-dispersal   species-distribution   species-distributions   species-diversity   species-ecology   species-evolution   species-extinction   species-identification   species-indicators   species-interactions   species-invasions   species-local-maximum-altitude   species-positive-interaction   species-resistance   species-richness   species-selection   species-specific-effects   species-trial   species-use   species-vulnerability   spectral-analysis   sphaeropsis-sapinea   sphagnum-spp   sphexishness   spiders   spodoptera-frugiperda   spondias-dulcis   spondias-mombin   spondylis-buprestoides   spore   spring   sprouting   spruce   spruce-bark-beetle   spruce-decline   sql   squashing-functions   sres-a1b   sres-a2   sres-b1   sres-b2   srtm   stability-vs-sparsity   stabilization  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Extinction debt of forest plants persists for more than a century following habitat fragmentation

Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 3. (March 2006), pp. 542-548,


Following habitat fragmentation individual habitat patches may lose species over time as they pay off their “extinction debt.” Species with relatively low rates of population extinction and colonization (“slow” species) may maintain extinction debts for particularly prolonged periods, but few data are available to test this prediction. We analyzed two unusually detailed data sets on forest plant distributions and land-use history from Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, and Vlaams-Brabant, Belgium, to test for an extinction debt in relation to species-specific extinction and colonization ...


The Holocene spread of spruce in Scandinavia



The Holocene spread of Picea abies in Scandinavia provides an excellent opportunity for detailed study of the dynamics of tree spread and population expansion. Early- and mid-Holocene macrofossil evidence for the presence of Picea abies in Scandinavia has questioned traditional interpretations of the timing and direction of its spread. This study aims to determine the pattern of the spread of Picea abies in Scandinavia from pollen and other data, to evaluate the significance of possible early outpost populations and to deduce ...


EDITOR'S CHOICE: Stepping stones are crucial for species' long-distance dispersal and range expansion through habitat networks

Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 51, No. 1. (1 February 2014), pp. 171-182,


[:1] Climate and land-use changes will require species to move large distances following shifts in their suitable habitats, which will frequently involve traversing intensively human-modified landscapes. Practitioners will therefore need to evaluate and act to enhance the degree to which habitat patches scattered throughout the landscape may function as stepping stones facilitating dispersal among otherwise isolated habitat areas. [:2] We formulate a new generalized network model of habitat connectivity that accounts for the number of dispersing individuals and for long-distance ...


Acceleration of evolutionary spread by long-range dispersal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 46. (18 November 2014), pp. E4911-E4919,


[Significance] Pathogens, invasive species, rumors, or innovations spread much more quickly around the world nowadays than in previous centuries. The speedup is caused by more frequent long-range dispersal, for example via air traffic. These jumps are crucial because they can generate satellite “outbreaks” at many distant locations, thus rapidly increasing the total rate of spread. We present a simple intuitive argument that captures the resulting spreading patterns. We show that even rare long-range jumps can transform the spread of simple epidemics ...


  1. Ruiz GM, et al. (2000) Global spread of microorganisms by ships. Nature 408(6808):49–50.
  2. Suarez AV, Holway DA, Case TJ (2001) Patterns of spread in biological invasions dominated by long-distance jump dispersal: Insights from argentine ants. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98:1095–1100.
  3. Brockmann D, Hufnagel L, Geisel T (2006) The scaling laws of human travel. Nature 439:462–465.
  4. Gonzalez M, Hidalgo C, Barabási A (2008) Understanding individual human mobility patterns.

Out of Africa

Nature, Vol. 514, No. 7521. (7 October 2014), pp. 139-139,


The Ebola outbreak in West Africa must be shut down now, or the disease will continue to spread. [Excerpt] Ebola is out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Although this has been the case since late spring, the international pledges of help have yet to translate into concerted, rapid action on the ground. The virus still has the upper hand. Between 23 September and 1 October alone, the number of cases rose from 6,500 to almost 7,500, according to ...


GRASS GIS manual: r.horizon

In GRASS Development Team, 2013. GRASS GIS 6.4.3svn Reference Manual (2013)


r.horizon - Horizon angle computation from a digital elevation model. Computes horizon angle height from a digital elevation model. The module has two different modes of operation: 1. Computes the entire horizon around a single point whose coordinates are given with the 'coord' option. The horizon height (in radians). 2. Computes one or more raster maps of the horizon height in a single direction. The input for this is the angle (in degrees), which is measured counterclockwise with east=0, north=90 etc. The ...


Movement of outbreak populations of mountain pine beetle: influences of spatiotemporal patterns and climate

Ecography, Vol. 31, No. 3. (June 2008), pp. 348-358,


Insect outbreaks exert landscape-level influences, yet quantifying the relative contributions of various exogenous and endogenous factors that contribute to their pattern and spread remains elusive. We examine an outbreak of mountain pine beetle covering an 800 thousand ha area on the Chilcotin Plateau of British Columbia, Canada, during the 1970s and early 1980s. We present a model that incorporates the spatial and temporal arrangements of outbreaking insect populations, as well as various climatic factors that influence insect development. Onsets of eruptions ...


Contrasting patterns of historical colonization in white oaks (Quercus spp.) in California and Europe

Molecular Ecology, Vol. 15, No. 13. (18 October 2006), pp. 4085-4093,


Phylogeography allows the inference of evolutionary processes that have shaped the current distribution of genealogical lineages across a landscape. In this perspective, comparative phylogeographical analyses are useful in detecting common historical patterns by either comparing different species within the same area within a continent or by comparing similar species in different areas. Here, we analyse one taxon (the white oak, genus Quercus, subgenus Quercus, section Quercus) that is widespread worldwide, and we evaluate its phylogeographical pattern on two different continents: western ...


Rapid Evolutionary Changes in a Globally Invading Fungal Pathogen (Dutch Elm Disease)

Biological Invasions In Biological Invasions, Vol. 3, No. 3. (2001), pp. 223-233,


Two enormously destructive pandemics of Dutch elm disease occurred in the 20th century, resulting in the death of a majority of mature elms across much of the northern hemisphere. The first pandemic, caused by Ophiostoma ulmi, occurred as this pathogen spread across Europe, North America and Southwest and Central Asia during the 1920s–1940s. The current pandemic is caused by another Ophiostoma species, O. novo-ulmi. Since the 1940s, O. novo-ulmi has been spreading into the regions previously affected by O. ulmi. It ...


Scientific Opinion on the phytosanitary risk associated with some coniferous species and genera for the spread of pine wood nematode

EFSA Journal, Vol. 10, No. 1. (2012), 2553,


The European Commission requested the Panel on Plant Health to deliver a scientific opinion on the phytosanitary risk of plants (other than fruits and seeds) of Pinus pinea and of the genera Chamaecyparis, Cryptomeria and Juniperus for the spread of pine wood nematode (PWN) via movement of infested plants or untreated plant products or by supporting natural spread of PWN in conjunction with European species of the vector. The Panel analysed the data submitted by Portugal regarding surveys on the Tróia ...


Ecological and evolutionary effects of fragmentation on infectious disease dynamics

Science, Vol. 344, No. 6189. (13 June 2014), pp. 1289-1293,


[Abstract] Ecological theory predicts that disease incidence increases with increasing density of host networks, yet evolutionary theory suggests that host resistance increases accordingly. To test the combined effects of ecological and evolutionary forces on host-pathogen systems, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of a plant (Plantago lanceolata)–fungal pathogen (Podosphaera plantaginis)relationship for 12 years in over 4000 host populations. Disease prevalence at the metapopulation level was low, with high annual pathogen extinction rates balanced by frequent (re-)colonizations. Highly connected host populations experienced less ...


Climate change and the migration capacity of species

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 21, No. 3. (2006), pp. 111-113,


In a recent paper, McLachlan et al. presented evidence that migration rates of two tree species at the end of the last glacial (c. 10–20 thousand years ago) were much slower than was previously thought. These results provide an important insight for climate-change impacts studies and suggest that the ability of species to track future climate change is limited. However, the detection of late-glacial refugia close to modern range limits also implies that some of our most catastrophic projections might be ...


European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) dieback - A conservation biology challenge

Biological Conservation, Vol. 158 (February 2013), pp. 37-49,


[Abstract] Common ash (Fraxinus excelsior) is a keystone tree species throughout temperate Europe whose future existence is threatened by an emerging invasive fungal disease. Ash dieback, which first appeared in Poland in the 1990s, has rapidly spread to most eastern, central and northern European countries. The causal agent of the disease, the ascomycete Hymenoscyphus pseudoalbidus (anamorph Chalara fraxinea), was recently described as a new species. Given that the disease lethally affects ash trees of all age classes, and that ash tree ...


Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests under current and future climatic conditions in European forests using host data

In EFSA-EPPO Joint Workshop on Data collection and information sharing in plant health (April 2014), 16


In this study we propose a methodology for assessing forest vulnerability to insect pests at pan-European level. Two insect pests are used for testing and validating a methodology that could be extended to other forest insect pests. Our results highlight the strengths of the approach, facilitate information sharing with decision makers and discuss the limitations, including data availability of forests insect pests. Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their effects could be exacerbated by warmer climatic conditions. ...


Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range

Ecology Letters, Vol. 4, No. 5. (14 August 2001), pp. 500-510,


Global warming is expected to have a major impact on plant distributions, an issue of key importance in biological conservation. However, very few models are able to predict species distribution accurately, although we know species respond individually to climate change. Here we show, using a process-based model (PHENOFIT), that tree species distributions can be predicted precisely if the biological processes of survival and reproductive success only are incorporated as a function of phenology. These predictions showed great predictive power when tested ...


Long-Distance Dispersal of Plants

Science, Vol. 313, No. 5788. (11 August 2006), pp. 786-788,


Long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plants poses challenges to research because it involves rare events driven by complex and highly stochastic processes. The current surge of renewed interest in LDD, motivated by growing recognition of its critical importance for natural populations and communities and for humanity, promises an improved, quantitatively derived understanding of LDD. To gain deep insights into the patterns, mechanisms, causes, and consequences of LDD, we must look beyond the standard dispersal vectors and the mean trend of the distribution ...


Unlikely Yet Pivotal Long Dispersals

Science, Vol. 344, No. 6180. (11 April 2014), pp. 153-154,


[Excerpt] Long-distance dispersal can enable a species to colonize new areas far from its range, with potentially drastic consequences for ecology, evolution, and biogeography. In The Monkey's Voyage, Alan de Queiroz argues that long-distance dispersals are necessary to explaining the evolutionary histories of many animals and plants across the world. Although Charles Darwin (1) and Alfred Russel Wallace (2) came to the same conclusion over a century ago, the dispersalist view has long been strongly resisted. In particular, the acceptance of ...


Inferring shifts in tree species distribution using asymmetric distribution curves: a case study in the Iberian mountains

Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 25, No. 1. (January 2014), pp. 147-159,


Questions The objectives of this study were to examine altitudinal shifts in tree species distributions over one decade to quantify the potential for tree migration. Location Spain. Methods We analysed presence–absence data using two successive surveys of the Spanish Forest Inventory in five Fagaceae tree species (two temperate: Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea, one sub-Mediterranean: Q. faginea and two Mediterranean: Q. suber and Q. ilex) in two mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Iberian system). Half of the fitted altitudinal distributions were skewed and required use ...


Stochastic model of lake system invasion and its optimal control: neurodynamic programming as a solution method

Natural Resource Modeling, Vol. 22, No. 2. (08 December 2008), pp. 257-288,


We develop a stochastic model for the process of spread of an aquatic invader in a lake system. The invader is transported along with recreation boats, and treatment of boats allows one to control the invader spread. Optimization of invasion and control costs leads to a dynamic programming problem. However, standard stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) algorithms allow us to solve the problem for at most 13–14 lakes, which is significantly less than the size of systems arising in applications. We have ...


Glacial Refugia: Hotspots But Not Melting Pots of Genetic Diversity

Science, Vol. 300, No. 5625. (06 June 2003), pp. 1563-1565,


Glacial refuge areas are expected to harbor a large fraction of the intraspecific biodiversity of the temperate biota. To test this hypothesis, we studied chloroplast DNA variation in 22 widespread European trees and shrubs sampled in the same forests. Most species had genetically divergent populations in Mediterranean regions, especially those with low seed dispersal abilities. However, the genetically most diverse populations were not located in the south but at intermediate latitudes, a likely consequence of the admixture of divergent lineages colonizing ...


Inefficient epidemic spreading in scale-free networks

Physical Review E, Vol. 77, No. 2. (Feb 2008), 026113,


Highly heterogeneous degree distributions yield efficient spreading of simple epidemics through networks, but can be inefficient with more complex epidemiological processes. We study diseases with nonlinear force of infection whose prevalences can abruptly collapse to zero while decreasing the transmission parameters. We find that scale-free networks can be unable to support diseases that, on the contrary, are able to persist at high endemic levels in homogeneous networks with the same average degree. ...


Success in the demographic expansion of Fraxinus excelsior L.

Trees In Trees, Vol. 15, No. 1. (2000), pp. 1-13,


This review examines the ecological traits and ecophysiological characteristics of the common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) that help to explain the current spread of ash communities in Europe. As a consequence of anthropogenic disturbance, the common ash has experienced new environmental conditions and the frequency of the species has fluctuated over space and time. Owing to its ubiquity, over the last few decades the common ash has been greatly favoured in areas abandoned by agriculture and also along impounded rivers. F. ...


Rapid Invasion of Fraxinus ornus L. Along the Herault River System in Southern France: The Importance of Seed Dispersal by Water

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 18, No. 1. (January 1991), pp. 7-12,


To document the range extension of a plant species in a region in which it was previously absent, we have examined the distribution pattern of Fraxinus ornus L. 65 years after its introduction to the Hérault River in southern France. Censuses of flowering individuals showed that Fraxinus ornus successfully colonized, but remained mainly restricted to, flood-disturbed riparian habitats in the Hérault River system. The present distribution of this species showed that it spread along the river system at an average rate ...


GRASS GIS manual: r.sun

In GRASS Development Team, 2013. GRASS GIS 6.4.3svn Reference Manual (2007)


r.sun - Solar irradiance and irradiation model. Computes direct (beam), diffuse and reflected solar irradiation raster maps for given day, latitude, surface and atmospheric conditions. ...


GRASS GIS manual: r.ros

In GRASS Development Team, 2013: GRASS GIS 6.4.3svn Reference Manual (2009)


r.ros - Generates three, or four raster map layers showing 1) the base (perpendicular) rate of spread (ROS), 2) the maximum (forward) ROS, 3) the direction of the maximum ROS, and optionally 4) the maximum potential spotting distance. ...


GRASS GIS manual: r.spread

In GRASS Development Team, 2013. GRASS GIS 6.4.3svn Reference Manual (2006)


r.spread - Simulates elliptically anisotropic spread on a graphics window and generates a raster map of the cumulative time of spread, given raster maps containing the rates of spread (ROS), the ROS directions and the spread origins. It optionally produces raster maps to contain backlink UTM coordinates for tracing spread paths. ...

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Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database.

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Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.