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Selection: with tag science-based-decision-making [47 articles] 

 

Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 39 (January 2013), pp. 3-23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.09.006

Abstract

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to ...

 

Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

  
EFSA Journal, Vol. 8, No. 2. (1 February 2010), 1495, https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2010.1495

Abstract

The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on assessment practices and approaches when assessing risks to plant health to support the decision-making process under Council Directive 2000/29/EC. The framework aims at implementing the fundamental principles of risk assessment as laid down in Regulation (EC) ...

 

Science of preparedness

  
Science, Vol. 357, No. 6356. (14 September 2017), pp. 1073-1073, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aap9025

Abstract

Our hearts go out to those affected by hurricanes Harvey and Irma and by earlier monsoons across South Asia. These events are compelling reminders of the important role that science must play in preparing for disasters. But preparation is challenging, as reflected in the many facets of the “science of preparedness.” Certainly, modeling and forecasting storms are critical, but so are analyses of how agencies, communities, and individuals interact to understand and implement preparedness initiatives. [Excerpt] [...] Long-range estimates of the number ...

 

Keep it complex

  
Nature, Vol. 468, No. 7327. (23 December 2010), pp. 1029-1031, https://doi.org/10.1038/4681029a

Abstract

When knowledge is uncertain, experts should avoid pressures to simplify their advice. Render decision-makers accountable for decisions, says Andy Stirling. ...

 

Towards a web-based collaborative weighting method in project

  
In IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (2002), 6, https://doi.org/10.1109/icsmc.2002.1173335

Abstract

For the purpose of a product design or a project in general, weighting a set of comparable criteria has been proven to be of utmost importance (e.g. weighting product functions in value analysis - VA -, and allocating a budget in a Design-To-Cost project). Moreover the weighting problem is related to basic properties in the field of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) through the notions of ordinal transitivity and rationality in the designers' mind. How should designers or project agents decide in ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 31

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   root-growth   root-rot   root-sucker   root-suckers   root-system   rooting-depth   roots   roptrocerus-xylophagorum   rosa-canina   rosa-pendulina   rosa-pimpinellifolia   rosa-rugosa   rosa-spp   rosaceae   rothermel   rough-set   routes   roystonea-regia   rros   rspread   rubik   rubus-caesius   rubus-fruticosus   rubus-idaeus   rubus-spp   ruby   runoff   ruscus-aculeatus   rusle   russia   rwanda   saass   sabal-palmetto   saga   salicaceae   salinization   salix-alba   salix-appendiculata   salix-aurita   salix-babylonica   salix-caprea   salix-cinera   salix-cinerea   salix-daphnoides   salix-elaeagnos   salix-fragilis   salix-glabra   salix-lasiandra   salix-matsudana   salix-myrsinifolia-nigricans   salix-nigricans   salix-pentandra   salix-purpurea   salix-repens   salix-reticulata   salix-rosmarinifolia   salix-salviifolia   salix-scouleriana   salix-smithiana   salix-spp   salix-triandra   salix-viminalis   salt-tolerance   salvage-logging   salzmannii   samanea-saman   sambucus-canadensis   sambucus-nigra   sambucus-racemosa   sambucus-spp   san-francesco-del-deserto   san-lorenzo-di-castello   sand-soil   santalum-album   saperda-scalaris   saproxylic-beetles   sapwood   saraca-asoca   sassafras-albidum   sassafras-spp   satellites   saudi-arabia   savannas   saxony   scalability   scale-free-network   scale-invariance   scale-vs-pixel   scandinavia   scarcity   scenario-analysis   schima-superba   schinopsis-balansae   schinus-molle   schinus-terebinthifolius   scholarly-poor   science-2-0   science-based-decision-making   science-ethics  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Europe’s forest management did not mitigate climate warming

  
Science, Vol. 351, No. 6273. (2016), pp. 597-600, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad7270

Abstract

[Europe's managed forests contribute to warming] For most of the past 250 years, surprisingly it seems that Europe's managed forests have been a net source of carbon, contributing to climate warming rather than mitigating it. Naudts et al. reconstructed the history of forest management in Europe in the context of a land-atmosphere model. The release of carbon otherwise stored in litter, dead wood, and soil carbon pools in managed forests was one key factor contributing to climate warming. Second, the conversion of ...

 

Study of a collaborative repository of semantic metadata and models for regional environmental datasets' multivariate transformations

  
(2015)
edited by Giorgio Guariso

Abstract

A semantic modelling procedure is introduced to ease array-based multivariate transformations of public environmental data, along with the architecture of a collaborative repository of modelling meta-information based on the procedure. [\n] The procedure, Semantic Array Programming (SemAP), is intended as a lightweight paradigm to support integrated natural resources modelling and management (INRMM), in the context of wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe, here tested from catchment up to regional and continental scale). [\n] It is a common experience among computational scientists, ...

References

  1. Aalde, H., Gonzalez, P., Gytarsky, M., Krug, T., Kurz, W. A., Ogle, S., Raison, J., Schoene, D., Ravindranath, N. H., Elhassan, N. G., Heath, L. S., Higuchi, N., Kainja, S., Matsumoto, M., Sanz Sánchez, M. J., Somogyi, Z., 2006. Forest Land. Vol. 4 of IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Ch. 4, 83 pp. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_04_Ch4_Forest_Land.pdf .
 

Italian scientists vilified in wake of olive-tree deaths

  

Abstract

[Excerpt] [...] plant scientists at various institutes in Bari, the capital of the Puglia region, [southern Italy, ...] have been subject to a police investigation about whether they are responsible for the introduction of the bacterium, Xylella fastidiosa, into Puglia, or for allowing its subsequent spread. Police have called in several researchers involved in Xylella research for questioning and confiscated computers and documents from scientific institutes. “We’d just like to be left to do our work without this suspicion and this ...

 

Watchdogs of the European system

  
Science, Vol. 348, No. 6238. (29 May 2015), pp. 947-947, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac6092

Abstract

Henry Kissinger, as U.S Secretary of State, is famously said to have asked: “If I want to call Europe, who do I call?” Until recently, the scientific community thought it had an answer to this question: the chief scientific adviser (CSA) to the president of the European Commission (EC). Two weeks ago, that changed. [Excerpt] President Juncker insisted that he was still committed to scientific advice and asked Carlos Moedas, the Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation, to lead a review of ...

 

Equality bias impairs collective decision-making across cultures

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 12. (24 March 2015), pp. 3835-3840, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1421692112

Abstract

[Significance] When making decisions together, we tend to give everyone an equal chance to voice their opinion. To make the best decisions, however, each opinion must be scaled according to its reliability. Using behavioral experiments and computational modelling, we tested (in Denmark, Iran, and China) the extent to which people follow this latter, normative strategy. We found that people show a strong equality bias: they weight each other’s opinion equally regardless of differences in their reliability, even when this strategy was at ...

 

The value of valuing nature

  
Science, Vol. 346, No. 6209. (31 October 2014), pp. 549-551, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255997

Abstract

The complex ways in which humans depend on their natural environment are increasingly expressed in terms of ecosystem services, which are often assigned economic values to assist decision-making. The key attraction of the ecosystem services concept to conservationists lies in the potential for win-win outcomes (1), where the value of an ecosystem service depends on high biological diversity and cannot be increased by modifying it. Such outcomes are possible. For example, in Costa Rican coffee plantations, retention of forest patches doubled ...

 

Precaution, foresight and sustainability: reflection and reflexivity in the governance of science and technology

  
In Reflexive Governance for Sustainable Development (2006), pp. 225-273, https://doi.org/10.4337/9781847200266.00020

Abstract

[Excerpt] The introductory chapter to this volume demonstrates how the advent of the ‘sustainability agenda’ holds crucial significance for the prospects of more reflexive governance. (Voß and Kemp, this volume). Nowhere is this truer than in the governance of science and technology. Discourses on sustainability are dominated by understandings and possibilities mediated by science. They are pervaded by the aims and potentialities associated with different forms of technology. It is also the experience of the unfolding implications of twentieth-century science ...

 

More is not always better: coping with ambiguity in natural resources management

  
Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 92, No. 1. (29 January 2011), pp. 78-84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.08.029

Abstract

Coping with ambiguities in natural resources management has become unavoidable. Ambiguity is a distinct type of uncertainty that results from the simultaneous presence of multiple valid, and sometimes conflicting, ways of framing a problem. As such, it reflects discrepancies in meanings and interpretations. Under the presence of ambiguity it is not clear what problem is to be solved, who should be involved in the decision processes or what is an appropriate course of action. Despite the extensive literature about methodologies and ...

 

Complex decisions made simple: a primer on stochastic dynamic programming

  
Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 4, No. 9. (1 September 2013), pp. 872-884, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12082

Abstract

* Under increasing environmental and financial constraints, ecologists are faced with making decisions about dynamic and uncertain biological systems. To do so, stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is the most relevant tool for determining an optimal sequence of decisions over time. * Despite an increasing number of applications in ecology, SDP still suffers from a lack of widespread understanding. The required mathematical and programming knowledge as well as the absence of introductory material provide plausible explanations for this. * Here, we fill ...

 

Supporting environmental and energy decisions through an open software structure

  
In Proceedings of the iEMSs Third Biennial Meeting: "Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software" (July 2006)

Abstract

Public participation to environmental planning and management decisions, as suggested by local Agenda 21 processes, can be supported by software tools developed with a cyclic interaction with all the stakeholders and simple enough to be quickly operated by a large set of heterogeneous users. This also helps preventing their rapid aging and their excessive dependence on changing technologies. We experimented the development of such software tools using an Office type environment to store data, analyse, and geographically represent the effects of ...

 

The drama of uncertainty

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 100, No. 1. (1 May 2010), pp. 77-85, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9841-6

Abstract

[Excerpt] Concluding remarks. We do not have consensus among stakeholders/decision makers, climate scientists, and social scientists on the relative importance of reducing uncertainty about future regional climate change for decision making. And we may never have such consensus. In this regard we are faced with an instance of meta-deep uncertainty. While it makes sense that there may be different perspectives on this issue based on what aspect of regional adaptation to climate change one is considering, it is also clear that perspectives are still too far apart. ...

 

Scientific advice: crisis counsellors

  
Nature, Vol. 512, No. 7515. (27 August 2014), pp. 360-363, https://doi.org/10.1038/512360a

Abstract

[Excerpt] Volcanic eruptions, oil spills and bacterial outbreaks all land in the laps of government science advisers, and put them to the test. [...] When scientists enter government in the role of a scientific adviser or as the head of a science agency, they need to be prepared for the unexpected. Some of their most crucial contributions come during crises, a theme that will be explored on 28–29 August at a global summit of science advisers in Auckland, New Zealand. On ...

 

Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns

  
Ecology Letters, Vol. 13, No. 11. (1 November 2010), pp. 1325-1337, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01514.x

Abstract

Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1325–1337 Abstract There is a growing view that to make efficient use of resources, ecological monitoring should be hypothesis-driven and targeted to address specific management questions. ‘Targeted’ monitoring has been contrasted with other approaches in which a range of quantities are monitored in case they exhibit an alarming trend or provide ad hoc ecological insights. The second form of monitoring, described as surveillance, has been criticized because it does not usually aim to discern between competing hypotheses, ...

 

IPCC report under fire

  
Nature, Vol. 508, No. 7496. (15 April 2014), pp. 298-298, https://doi.org/10.1038/508298a

Abstract

Critics attack panel’s lack of specific guidance on how countries should lower emissions. [Excerpt] [...] The document, a policy summary prepared by Working Group III of the IPCC, is the third instalment of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. It follows reports on the science of climate and the impacts of climate change, released in the past few months. Compiled by hundreds of lead and reviewing authors over several years, the report warns that without substantial policy and technology changes, the world is ...

 

Making use of the ecosystem services concept in regional planning - trade-offs from reducing water erosion

  
Landscape Ecology In Landscape Ecology (2014), pp. 1-15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-014-9992-3

Abstract

In this article we demonstrate how to integrate the ecosystem services concept into regional planning using the example of a case study in Saxony, Germany. We analysed how the reduction of water erosion as a regulating service impacts six other ecosystem services. Ecological integrity, provisioning services (provision of food and fibre, provision of biomass), regulating services (soil erosion protection, drought-risk regulation, flood regulation), and the cultural service landscape aesthetics are taken into account. Using a decision support software, we found that ...

 

Democratic decisions establish stable authorities that overcome the paradox of second-order punishment

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 2. (23 January 2013), pp. 201315273-756, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1315273111

Abstract

[Significance] Humans usually punish free riders but refuse to sanction those who cooperate but do not punish. However, such second-order punishment is essential to maintain cooperation. The central authorities established in modern societies punish both free riders and tax evaders. This is a paradox: would individuals who do not engage in second-order punishment strive for an authority that does? We address this puzzle with a mathematical model and an economic experiment. When individuals can choose between authorities by migrating between different ...

 

The Adaptive Decision-Making Process as a Tool for Integrated Natural Resource Management: Focus, Attitudes, and Approach

  
Ecology and Society, Vol. 5, No. 2. (2001), 11+

Abstract

Integrated natural resource management (INRM) and its many closely related approaches are generally considered to be more effective than single-disciplinary approaches for managing the complex resource issues currently facing many countries. INRM approaches aim to integrate several disciplines and involve different stakeholders operating in their own subsystems across different spatial and temporal scales. These approaches focus on identifying management strategies for sustaining natural resource stocks and flows of goods and services as well as their underlying ecological processes. Changes in the ...

 

The evolution of error: error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 28, No. 8. (August 2013), pp. 474-481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014

Abstract

Counterintuitively, biases can improve decision making. Numerous studies have identified biases as an effective way to manage errors. Given cognitive and evolutionary constraints, psychological biases can be adaptive. EMT has a wide scope of application for modern challenges. Counterintuitively, biases in behavior or cognition can improve decision making. Under conditions of uncertainty and asymmetric costs of ‘false-positive’ and ‘false-negative’ errors, biases can lead to mistakes in one direction but – in so doing – steer us away from more costly mistakes ...

 

Determining benefits and costs for future generations

  
Science, Vol. 341, No. 6144. (26 July 2013), pp. 349-350, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235665

Abstract

In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also ...

 

Soil information in support of policy making and awareness raising

  
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 4, No. 5. (November 2012), pp. 552-558, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2012.07.001

Abstract

Soils play an important role in defining sustainable land-use options when facing major global environmental challenges such as food security, climate change, fresh water scarcity and biodiversity loss. Facing these problems, the 2006 EU Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection (TSSP), provides an important focal point for soil research and awareness raising. Unfortunately, the TSSP has not yet been followed up with a legally binding Framework Directive mainly because of political barriers. Two approaches are discussed to overcome these barriers: First, we ...

 

Uncertainties in landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessment

  
Journal of Environmental Management (January 2013), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.12.002

Abstract

Landscape analysis and ecosystem service assessment have drawn increasing concern from research and application at the landscape scale. Thanks to the continuously emerging assessments as well as studies aiming at evaluation method improvement, policy makers and landscape managers have an increasing interest in integrating ecosystem services into their decisions. However, the plausible assessments carry numerous sources of uncertainties, which regrettably tend to be ignored or disregarded by the actors or researchers. In order to cope with uncertainties and make them more ...

 

Precisely incorrect? Monetising the value of ecosystem services

  
Ecological Complexity, Vol. 7, No. 3. (September 2010), pp. 327-337, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2010.04.007

Abstract

Environmental scientists employ political and economic arguments to argue for the conservation of biodiversity and the maintenance of ecosystem services. However, the economic terminology has a number of connotations which makes its usefulness for the intended effect questionable. On the one hand, the basic assumptions underlying economic valuation are far from realistic and represent rather a caricature of human behaviour. On the other hand, the methods based on these assumptions are manifold and lead to wildly diverging results. Thus the calculated ...

 

Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysis

  
Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 10. (1 October 2012), pp. 1607-1629, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01792.x

Abstract

How can risk analysts help to improve policy and decision making when the correct probabilistic relation between alternative acts and their probable consequences is unknown? This practical challenge of risk management with model uncertainty arises in problems from preparing for climate change to managing emerging diseases to operating complex and hazardous facilities safely. We review constructive methods for robust and adaptive risk analysis under deep uncertainty. These methods are not yet as familiar to many risk analysts as older statistical and ...

 

Case study: multicriteria assessment of drought mitigation measures

  
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 131, No. 6. (November 2005), pp. 449-457, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(2005)131:6(449)

Abstract

The proactive approach to drought management is based on measures devised and implemented before, during, and after the drought event, according to a planning strategy rather than within an emergency framework. The measures taken before the initiation of a drought event consist of long-term measures oriented to improve the reliability of the water supply system to meet future demands under drought conditions. The measures taken after a drought is forecasted or starts are short-term measures that try to mitigate the impacts ...

 

Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

  
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change In Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 17, No. 7. (21 March 2012), pp. 805-819, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9345-3

Abstract

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify ...

 

Benefits and limitations of the ecosystem services concept in environmental policy and decision making: some stakeholder perspectives

  
Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 25 (January 2013), pp. 13-21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.08.001

Abstract

[Abstract] The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is increasingly being used in environmental policy and decision making. We report here on the empirical results which emerged from stakeholder discussions within the PRESS (PEER Research on EcoSystem Services) project on certain unresolved challenges related to the use of the ES concept in decision making. The results show that the occurrence of synergies and trade-offs between different ES and their relevance for decision making depends significantly on the scale involved (in particular regarding the ...

 

A participatory and integrated planning procedure for decision making in water resource systems

  
In Topics on System Analysis and Integrated Water Resources Management (2007), pp. 3-23, https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-008044967-8/50001-4

Abstract

This chapter presents a participatory and integrated planning procedure for decision making in water resource systems. In many parts of the world, water demand is increasing, while at the same time, availability and quality of water resources are decreasing, mainly due to human activities, in connection with the growing world population, ongoing urbanization, industrialization, and the intensification of agriculture. This development is often associated with general reductions in environmental quality and endangers sustainable development. An integrated approach is required to identify ...

 

PIP: a Participatory and Integrated Planning procedure for decision making in water resource systems

  
In Modelling and control for participatory planning and managing water systems (September 2004)

Abstract

There is a wide consensus that integrated planning and management (iwrm) plays a crucial role in the current context of water resources, as well as that any water related decisional process must be participated in order to reach transparent and readily acceptable decisions. At European level the iwrm paradigm has been adopted by the Water Framework Directive that came into force in December 2000. The directive sets out a detailed framework for the improved planning and management of water, including in ...

 

Choice of forest map has implications for policy analysis: a case study on the EU biofuel target

  
Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 22 (October 2012), pp. 13-24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.04.010

Abstract

With the increasing availability of European and global forest maps, users are facing the difficult choice to select the most appropriate map for their purposes. Many of these maps are potential input datasets for forest-related applications for the European Union (EU), due to their spatial extent and harmonised approach at the European level. However, they possess different characteristics in terms of spatial detail or thematic accuracy. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these characteristics on simulation models and ...

 

Forecasting wildland fire behavior: aids, guides, and knowledge-based protocols

  
Fire Management today, Vol. 64, No. 1. (2004), pp. 4-11

Abstract

By systematically reflecting upon our fire behavior forecasts and the tools that helped us prepare them, we become the masters of fire behavior models and not their servants. ...

 

A review of operations research methods applicable to wildfire management

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 21, No. 3. (2012), 189, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf10129

Abstract

Across the globe, wildfire-related destruction appears to be worsening despite increased fire suppression expenditure. At the same time, wildfire management is becoming increasingly complicated owing to factors such as an expanding wildland–urban interface, interagency resource sharing and the recognition of the beneficial effects of fire on ecosystems. Operations research is the use of analytical techniques such as mathematical modelling to analyse interactions between people, resources and the environment to aid decision-making in complex systems. Fire managers operate in a highly challenging ...

 

Defining and classifying ecosystem services for decision making

  
Ecological Economics, Vol. 68, No. 3. (15 January 2009), pp. 643-653, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.09.014

Abstract

The concept of ecosystems services has become an important model for linking the functioning of ecosystems to human welfare. Understanding this link is critical for a wide-range of decision-making contexts. While there have been several attempts to come up with a classification scheme for ecosystem services, there has not been an agreed upon, meaningful and consistent definition for ecosystem services. In this paper we offer a definition of ecosystem services that is likely to be operational for ecosystem service research and ...

 

Adaptive robust design under deep uncertainty

  
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 80, No. 3. (March 2013), pp. 408-418, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.004

Abstract

Developing strategies, or policies, that automatically adapt to changing conditions is called adaptive decision-making, respectively adaptive policy-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative computational model-based approach to support adaptive decision-making under deep uncertainty. This approach combines an adaptive policy-making framework with a computational approach to generate and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques, and robust optimization. The proposed approach, which is very useful for Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) studies, is illustrated on a policy-making case ...

 

A new decision sciences for complex systems

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, No. suppl 3. (14 May 2002), pp. 7309-7313, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.082081699

Abstract

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying ...

 

Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support

  
Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4, No. 1. (1 March 2003), pp. 5-17, https://doi.org/10.1076/iaij.4.1.5.16466

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the modellers? view on uncertainty) ? uncertainty regarding the analytical outcomes and conclusions of the decision support exercise. Within the regulatory and management sciences, there is neither commonly shared terminology ...

 

Future research challenges for incorporation of uncertainty in environmental and ecological decision-making

  
Ecological Modelling, Vol. 219, No. 3-4. (10 December 2008), pp. 383-399, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.015

Abstract

Environmental decision-making is extremely complex due to the intricacy of the systems considered and the competing interests of multiple stakeholders. Additional research is needed to acquire further knowledge and understanding of different types of uncertainty (e.g., knowledge, variability, decision, and linguistic uncertainty) inherent in environmental decision-making, and how these areas of uncertainty affect the quality of decisions rendered. Modeling and decision support tools (e.g., integrated assessment models, optimization algorithms, and multicriteria decision analysis tools) are being used increasingly for comparative analysis ...

 

Ethics in OR/MS: past, present and future

  
4OR: A Quarterly Journal of Operations Research, Vol. 2, No. 2. (1 July 2004), pp. 95-110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10288-004-0039-5

Abstract

The pervasiveness and impact on society and on every day human life of technology has led to a growing awareness that science and technology cannot be considered above or beyond the realm of value judgements and hence of ethics. This is especially true for Operations Research / Management Science (OR/MS), that particular science which is concerned with methodologies for scientifically deciding how to design and operate man-machine systems in an optimal way, usually under conditions requiring the allocation of scarce resources. ...

 

Value-focused thinking: a path to creative decisionmaking

  
(01 February 1996)

Abstract

The standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards, says Ralph Keeney: people focus first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values. A problem arises and people react, placing the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of on the objectives that give decisionmaking its meaning. In this book, Keeney shows how recognizing and articulating fundamental values can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and to select ...

 

Some pitfalls of an overemphasis on science in environmental risk management decisions

  
Journal of Risk Research, Vol. 9, No. 7. (1 October 2006), pp. 717-735, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600799895

Abstract

This paper addresses the question whether calls for "more" and "better" science will have the intended effect of improving the quality of decisions about environmental risks. There are reasons to be skeptical: key judgment tasks that fundamentally shape many aspects of decisions about environmental risk management lie outside the domain of science. These tasks include making value judgments explicit, integrating facts and values to create innovative alternatives, and constructively addressing conflicts about uncertainty. To bring new specificity to an old debate, ...

 

Developing a forest data portal to support multi-scale decision making

  
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, Vol. 5, No. 6. (2012), pp. 1692-1699, https://doi.org/10.1109/jstars.2012.2194136

Abstract

Forests play a pivotal role in timber production, maintenance and development of biodiversity and in carbon sequestration and storage in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Policy makers and forest experts therefore require reliable information on forest extent, type and change for management, planning and modeling purposes. It is becoming increasingly clear that such forest information is frequently inconsistent and unharmonised between countries and continents. This paper presents a forest information portal that has been developed in line with the GEOSS ...

 

The biodiversity and ecosystem services science-policy interface

  
Science, Vol. 331, No. 6021. (04 March 2011), pp. 1139-1140, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1202400

Abstract

In recognition of our inability to halt damaging ecosystem change, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was asked in December 2010 to convene a meeting “to determine modalities and institutional arrangements” of a new assessment body, akin to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to track causes and consequences of anthropogenic ecosystem change (5). The “blueprint” for this body, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), lies in recommendations of an intergovernmental conference held in the Republic of ...

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