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Selection: with tag scenario-analysis [29 articles] 

 

The most recent view of vulnerability

  
In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 70-84

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] Over the past decades, vulnerability research has made considerable progress in understanding some of the root causes and dynamic pressures that influence the progression of vulnerability and raised awareness that disasters are not natural but predominantly a product of social, economic and political conditions (Wisner et al., 2004). [\n] Vulnerability assessments are a response to the call for evidence by decision- makers for use in pre-disaster risk assessment, prevention and reduction, as well as the development and implementation of appropriate preparedness and effective disaster response strategies by providing information on people, communities or regions at risk. [\n] ...

References

  1. Alexander, D., Magni, M., 2013. Mortality in the L'Aquila ( Central Italy ) Earthquake of 6 April 2009. PLOS Current Disasters, (April 2009).
  2. Alexander, D., 2010. The L'Aquila Earthquake of 6 April 2009 and Italian Government Policy on Disaster Response. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 2(4), 325–342.
  3. Alexander, D., 2013. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: An etymological journey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13 (11), 2707–2716.
 

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618765114

Abstract

[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

Keep it complex

  
Nature, Vol. 468, No. 7327. (23 December 2010), pp. 1029-1031, https://doi.org/10.1038/4681029a

Abstract

When knowledge is uncertain, experts should avoid pressures to simplify their advice. Render decision-makers accountable for decisions, says Andy Stirling. ...

 

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 50. (13 December 2016), pp. 14294-14299, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1611386113

Abstract

[Significance] The future of world population growth matters for future human well-being and interactions with the natural environment. We show the extent to which world population growth could be reduced by fully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) whose health and education targets have direct and indirect consequences on future mortality and fertility trends. Although this assessment is consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change context, it is inconsistent with the prediction range of ...

 

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

  
Science, Vol. 310, No. 5752. (25 November 2005), pp. 1333-1337, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1115233

Abstract

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, “surplus land” ...

 

Education: animating possible worlds

  
Science, Vol. 308, No. 5718. (01 April 2005), pp. 29e-29e, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.308.5718.29e

Abstract

Global warming's future impact depends on factors such as human population growth and fossil fuel use. High school and introductory college classes can learn how these and other variables might influence temperatures, sea levels, and more at a new tutorial hosted by California State University, Los Angeles. The Java applet helps students work through scenarios for the future sketched by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For example, animations illustrate flooding in areas such as Florida and Indonesia under different sets ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 31

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   root-growth   root-rot   root-sucker   root-suckers   root-system   rooting-depth   roots   roptrocerus-xylophagorum   rosa-canina   rosa-pendulina   rosa-pimpinellifolia   rosa-rugosa   rosa-spp   rosaceae   rothermel   rough-set   routes   roystonea-regia   rros   rspread   rubik   rubus-caesius   rubus-fruticosus   rubus-idaeus   rubus-spp   ruby   runoff   ruscus-aculeatus   rusle   russia   rwanda   saass   sabal-palmetto   saga   salicaceae   salinization   salix-alba   salix-appendiculata   salix-aurita   salix-babylonica   salix-caprea   salix-cinera   salix-cinerea   salix-daphnoides   salix-elaeagnos   salix-fragilis   salix-glabra   salix-lasiandra   salix-matsudana   salix-myrsinifolia-nigricans   salix-nigricans   salix-pentandra   salix-purpurea   salix-repens   salix-reticulata   salix-rosmarinifolia   salix-salviifolia   salix-scouleriana   salix-smithiana   salix-spp   salix-triandra   salix-viminalis   salt-tolerance   salvage-logging   salzmannii   samanea-saman   sambucus-canadensis   sambucus-nigra   sambucus-racemosa   sambucus-spp   san-francesco-del-deserto   san-lorenzo-di-castello   sand-soil   santalum-album   saperda-scalaris   saproxylic-beetles   sapwood   saraca-asoca   sassafras-albidum   sassafras-spp   satellites   saudi-arabia   savannas   saxony   scalability   scale-free-network   scale-invariance   scale-vs-pixel   scandinavia   scarcity   scenario-analysis   schima-superba   schinopsis-balansae   schinus-molle   schinus-terebinthifolius   scholarly-poor   science-2-0   science-based-decision-making   science-ethics  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

  
Nature Communications, Vol. 7 (19 April 2016), 11382, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11382

Abstract

Safeguarding the world’s remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even ...

Visual summary



 

On the extinction of craft skills with numbers - The case of “Overall, 7.9% of species are predicted to become extinct from climate change.”

  
(December 2015)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] [\n] This paper is about craft skills with numbers and, in particular, about problems with the use of numbers of unknown pedigree. As an example, I will discuss a very striking number that appeared in the mainstream press in early May 20152: a new scientific study was reported to have found that 7.9% of species would become extinct as a result of climate change. What was quite remarkable about this number is that it had two digits: not 10%, not ...

 

20th Century Portuguese climate and climate change scenarios

  
In Climate change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (2002), pp. 23-83
 

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 5-31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Abstract

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and ...

 

Spatial patterns of European droughts under a moderate emission scenario

  
Advances in Science and Research, Vol. 12 (24 July 2015), pp. 179-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015

Abstract

Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981–2010, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × ...

References

  1. Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., Smith, M., 1998. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper, 56, FAO, Rome, 15 pp..
  2. Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Reig, F., Latorre, B., 2014. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited: parameter fitting, evapotranspiration models, tools, datasets and drought monitoring, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 3001–3023.
  3. Blenkinsop, S., Fowler, H. J., 2007. Changes in European
 

Determining Short Term Responses of Irish Dairy Farms under Climate Change

  
German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 63, No. 3. (2014), pp. 143-155

Abstract

This study aimed to determine short term farm responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change. The Irish National Farm Survey data and Irish weather data were the main datasets used in this study. A set of simulation models were used to determine grass yields and field time under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. An optimising farm level model which maximises farm net income under limiting farm resources was then run under these scenarios. Changes in farm net ...

References

  1. Abdalla, M., Jones, M., Yeluripati, J., Smith, P., Burke, J., Williams, M., 2010. Testing DayCent and DNDC model simulations of N2O fluxes and assessing the impacts of climate change on the gas flux and biomass production from a humid pasture. Atmospheric Environment, 44 (25), pp. 2961-2970
  2. Adams, R.M., Hurd, B.H., Lenahart, S., Leary, N., 1998. Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review. Climate Research, 11 (1), pp. 19-30
 

Approximate Dynamic Programming for Large-Scale Resource Allocation Problems

  
In TutORials in Operations Research: Models, Methods, and Applications for Innovative Decision Making (2006), pp. 123-147

Abstract

We present modeling and solution strategies for large-scale resource allocation problems that take place over multiple time periods under uncertainty. In general, the strategies we present formulate the problem as a dynamic program and replace the value functions with tractable approximations. The approximations of the value functions are obtained by using simulated trajectories of the system and iteratively improving on (possibly naive) initial approximations; we propose several improvement algorithms for this purpose. As a result, the resource allocation problem decomposes into ...

 

Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process – A framework and guidance

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 22, No. 11. (November 2007), pp. 1543-1556, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004

Abstract

A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader water management process and the role of uncertainty at different stages in the modelling processes. Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly complementary) methods commonly used in uncertainty assessment and characterisation: data uncertainty engine (DUE), error propagation equations, expert elicitation, extended peer review, inverse modelling (parameter estimation), inverse modelling (predictive uncertainty), Monte Carlo analysis, multiple model simulation, NUSAP, ...

 

Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 16, No. 1. (2016), pp. 21-30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with ...

 

Climate impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project

  
edited by J. C. Ciscar

Abstract

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison ...

References

  1. Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., Wei, T., 2012. Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in European Economies. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 959-968. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.005 .
  2. Alley, R.B., Whillans, I.M., 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254 (5034), 959–963. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.254.5034.959 .
  3. Anstey, J., Davini, P., Gray, L., Woollings, T., 2012. Multi-model analysis of winter blocking and tropospheric jet variability: The roles of horizontal and vertical resolution. Submitted to J.
 

Tree species composition in European pristine forests: comparison of stand data to model predictions

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 51, No. 3-4. (1 December 2001), pp. 307-347, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1012577612155

Abstract

The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and ...

 

A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

  
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment In Scenario-Based Studies of Future Land Use in Europe, Vol. 114, No. 1. (May 2006), pp. 57-68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.027

Abstract

This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation ...

 

Taking a bite out of biodiversity

  
Science, Vol. 343, No. 6173. (21 February 2014), pp. 838-838, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6173.838-a

Abstract

[excerpt] In the Review “Status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores” (10 January, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1241484), W. J. Ripple et al. claim that meat consumption by humans is one of many threats to carnivores and biodiversity. We argue that human carnivory is in fact the single greatest threat to overall biodiversity. Livestock production accounts for up to 75% of all agricultural lands and 30% of Earth's land surface, making it the single largest anthropogenic land use. Meat and feedstock production ...

 

Modelling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 78, No. 2-4. (October 2006), pp. 381-406, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9030-1

Abstract

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 ...

 

Reversing climate warming by artificial atmospheric carbon-dioxide removal: Can a Holocene-like climate be restored?

  
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, No. 20. (28 October 2013), pp. 5480-5485, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013gl057467

Abstract

Most climate modelling studies of future climate have focused on the affects of carbon emissions in the present century or the long-term fate of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, after carbon emissions cease there may be a desire to return to a“safe" CO 2 concentration within this millennium. Realistically this implies artificially removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. In this study experiments are conducted using the University of Victoria Earth system climate model forced with novelfuture scenarios to explore the reversibility of ...

 

Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 37. (10 August 2013), pp. E3477-E3486, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220351110

Abstract

Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation’s irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle production. So far, 30% of the groundwater has been ...

 

Spatially explicit scenario analysis for reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection, and carbon conservation in Indonesia

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, No. 24. (15 June 2010), pp. 11140-11144, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1000530107

Abstract

Palm oil is the world's most important vegetable oil in terms of production quantity. Indonesia, the world's largest palm-oil producer, plans to double its production by 2020, with unclear implications for the other national priorities of food (rice) production, forest and biodiversity protection, and carbon conservation. We modeled the outcomes of alternative development scenarios and show that every single-priority scenario had substantial tradeoffs associated with other priorities. The exception was a hybrid approach wherein expansion targeted degraded and agricultural lands that ...

 

Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

  
Carbon Balance and Management, Vol. 8, No. 1. (2013), 2, https://doi.org/10.1186/1750-0680-8-2

Abstract

[Background] Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are ...

 

A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios

  
Management Science, Vol. 52, No. 4. (01 April 2006), pp. 514-528, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0472

Abstract

Robustness is a key criterion for evaluating alternative decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. However, no systematic, general approach exists for finding robust strategies using the broad range of models and data often available to decision makers. This study demonstrates robust decision making (RDM), an analytic method that helps design robust strategies through an iterative process that first suggests candidate robust strategies, identifies clusters of future states of the world to which they are vulnerable, and then evaluates the trade-offs in ...

 

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 81, No. 0. (1 May 2007), pp. 123-143, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1

Abstract

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance ...

 

Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate

  
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, No. 2. (March 2011), pp. 220-237, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.102

Abstract

The need for pest and pathogen management will increase as the intensification of food production proceeds to feed the burgeoning human population. Climate is a significant driver of pest population dynamics, so climate change will require adaptive management strategies to cope with the altered status of pests and pathogens. A hierarchy of analytical tools is required to conduct risk assessments, inform policy and design pest management on scales from regions to landscapes and fields. Such tools include models for predicting potential ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/scenario-analysis

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.