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Selection: with tag robust-modelling [38 articles] 


Big names in statistics want to shake up much-maligned P value

Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (26 July 2017), pp. 16-17,


One of scientists’ favourite statistics — the P value — should face tougher standards, say leading researchers. [Excerpt] Science is in the throes of a reproducibility crisis, and researchers, funders and publishers are increasingly worried that the scholarly literature is littered with unreliable results. Now, a group of 72 prominent researchers is targeting what they say is one cause of the problem: weak statistical standards of evidence for claiming new discoveries. [\n] In many disciplines the significance of findings is judged by ...


The importance of being modular

Science, Vol. 357, No. 6347. (14 July 2017), pp. 128-129,


In the 1970s, ecologists began to speculate that modular systems—which are organized into blocks or modules—can better contain perturbations and are therefore more resilient against external damage. This simple concept can be applied to any networked system, be it an ecosystem, cellular metabolism, traffic flows, human disease contagion, a power grid, or an economy. However, experimental evidence has been lacking. On page 199 of this issue, Gilarranz et al. provide empirical evidence showing that modular networked systems do indeed have an ...



In NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods (2012),


[Excerpt: Definitions of order statistics and ranks] For a series of measurements Y1, …, YN, denote the data ordered in increasing order of magnitude by Y〈1〉, …, Y〈N〉. These ordered data are called order statistics. If Y〈j〉 is the order statistic that corresponds to the measurement Yᵢ, then the rank for Yᵢ is j; i.e., [::] Y〈j〉 ∼ Yᵢ, rᵢ=j. [Definition of percentiles] Order statistics provide a way of estimating proportions of the data that should fall above and below a ...


Sample quantiles in statistical packages

The American Statistician, Vol. 50, No. 4. (1 November 1996), pp. 361-365,


There are a large number of different definitions used for sample quantiles in statistical computer packages. Often within the same package one definition will be used to compute a quantile explicitly, while other definitions may be used when producing a boxplot, a probability plot, or a QQ plot. We compare the most commonly implemented sample quantile definitions by writing them in a common notation and investigating their motivation and some of their properties. We argue that there is a need to ...


Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

Keywords: abies-alba   array-of-factors   artificial-neural-networks   bioclimatic-predictors   change-factor   climate-change   data-uncertainty   diversity   environmental-modelling   europe   extrapolation-uncertainty   featured-publication   forest-resources   free-scientific-knowledge   free-scientific-software   free-software   fuzzy   gdal   genetic-diversity   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integration-techniques   mastrave-modelling-library   maximum-habitat-suitability   modelling-uncertainty   multiplicity   peseta-series   python   regional-climate-models   relative-distance-similarity   robust-modelling   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   spatial-disaggregation   sres-a1b   supervised-training   unsupervised-training  


[::] In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, their complex interaction with climate change is not yet well understood. [::] The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. [::] Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). [::] Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as case study: a main European tree ...


  1. European Commission, 2013. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest based sector. No. COM(2013) 659 final. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. , INRMM-MiD:12642065 .
  2. European Commission, 2013. Commission staff working document accompanying the document: Communication from the commission to

Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change

Climatic Change, Vol. 135, No. 3-4. (2016), pp. 409-424,


Robust decision-making is being increasingly used to support environmental resources decisions and policy analysis under changing climate and society. In this context, a robust decision is a decision that is as much as possible insensitive to a large degree of uncertainty and ensures certain performance across multiple plausible futures. Yet, the concept of robustness is neither unique nor static. Multiple robustness metrics, such as maximin, optimism-pessimism, max regret, have been proposed in the literature, reflecting diverse optimistic/pessimistic attitudes by the decision ...


Multi-dimensional weighted median: the module "wmedian" of the Mastrave modelling library

In Semantic Array Programming with Mastrave - Introduction to Semantic Computational Modelling (2012)


Weighted median (WM) filtering is a well known technique for dealing with noisy images and a variety of WM-based algorithms have been proposed as effective ways for reducing uncertainties or reconstructing degraded signals by means of available information with heterogeneous reliability. Here a generalized module for applying weighted median filtering to multi-dimensional arrays of information with associated multi-dimensional arrays of corresponding weights is presented. Weights may be associated to single elements or to groups of elements along given dimensions of the ...


Ten steps to programming mastery



[Excerpt] Here are ten ways you can improve your coding. The overriding principle to improving your skill at coding, as well as almost endeavor, is open your mind and then fill it with better knowledge. Improvement necessarily implies change, yet it is human nature to fear and resist change. But overcoming that fear and embracing change as a way of life will enable you to reach new levels of achievement. [...] [::Big Rule 1: Break your own habits] When you began coding, you were much less experienced ...


Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

Climatic Change, Vol. 122, No. 1-2. (2014), pp. 185-199,


We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System—recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827–840, 2013)—we ...


A (partial) introduction to software engineering practices and methods



[Excerpt: Introduction] Software engineering is concerned with all aspects of software production from the early stages of system specification through to maintaining the system after it has gone into use. [...] [\n] [...] As a discipline, software engineering has progressed very far in a very short period of time, particularly when compared to classical engineering field (like civil or electrical engineering). In the early days of computing, not much more than 50 years ago, computerized systems were quite small. Most of the programming was done by scientists trying to ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 30

(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   receptivity   record-to-update-or-delete   red-list   redd   redistributable-scientific-information   reference-manual   reforestation   refugia   regeneration   regional-climate   regional-climate-models   regional-scale   regression   regression-tree-analysis   regulating-services   reinforcement   reinforcement-learning   reinventing-weels   reiteration   relative-distance-similarity   relative-distance-similarity-ancillary   remote-sensing   renewable-energy   renewable-energy-directive   repeatability   repellent-species   replicability   reporting   representative-concentration-pathways   reproducibility   reproducible-research   reproduction   reproductive-effort   resampling   research-funding   research-funding-vs-public-outcome   research-management   research-metrics   research-team-size   reservoir-management   reservoir-services   resilience   resin   resistance   resources-exploitation   respiration   restoration   resurvey-of-semi-permanent   retraction   review   review-publication   review-scopus-european-biodiversity-indicators   revision-control-system   rewarding-best-research-practices   rhamnus-cathartica   rhamnus-catharticus   rhamnus-frangula   rhamnus-saxatilis   rhamnus-spp   rhizophora-apiculata   rhizophora-mangle   rhododendron   rhododendron-arboreum   rhododendron-ferrugineum   rhododendron-periclymenoides   rhododendron-ponticum   rhododendron-spp   rhododendron-viscosum   rhopalicus-tutela   rhus-spp   rhus-typhina   rhyacionia-buoliana   rhyacionia-frustrana   rhyssa-persuasoria   rhytisma   ribes-alpinum   ribes-rubrum   ribes-uva-crispa   ring-analysis   ring-width-chronologies   ringspot-virus   riparian-ecosystem   riparian-forest   riparian-zones   risk-analysis   risk-assessment   risk-reduction   river-flow   river-networks   river-restoration   roads   robert-hooke   robinia-pseudoacacia   robinia-spp   robust-modelling   rockfalls   rodent   romania   root-deterioration  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Deep uncertainty

In Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (2013), pp. 395-402,


[Excerpt: Introduction] The notion of uncertainty has taken different meanings and emphases in various fields, including the physical sciences, engineering, statistics, economics, finance, insurance, philosophy, and psychology. Analyzing the notion in each discipline can provide a specific historical context and scope in terms of problem domain, relevant theory, methods, and tools for handling uncertainty. Such analyses are given by Agusdinata (2008), van Asselt (2000), Morgan and Henrion (1990), and Smithson (1989). [\n] In general, uncertainty can be defined as limited knowledge about ...

Visual summary


Moving beyond climate change

Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, Vol. 52, No. 3. (30 April 2010), pp. 15-19,


[Excerpt] The rhetoric leading up to the Copenhagen Climate Summit last December (COP15) was deafening. [...] Copenhagen has shown us the limits of what can be achieved on climate change through centralization and hyperbolic multi-lateralism. Climate change—least of all, the Rubik’s cube version of climate change we have chosen to construct—will not be adequately defused through such top-down United Nations processes. Earth-system scientists may have shown us how the physical planetary system functions as a single entity, but we are a long way short of displaying even the minimum attributes necessary for effective earth system ...


Robust regression using repeated medians

Biometrika, Vol. 69, No. 1. (01 April 1982), pp. 242-244,


The repeated median algorithm is a robustified U-statistic in which nested medians replace the single mean. Unlike many generalizations of the univariate median, repeated median estimates maintain the high 50% breakdown value and can resist the effects of outliers even when they comprise nearly half of the data. For bivariate linear regression with symmetric errors, repeated median estimates are unbiased and Fisher consistent, and their efficiency under Gaussian sampling can be comparable to the efficiency of the univariate median. ...


  1. Andrews, D. F., 1974. A robust method for multiple linear regression. Technometrics 16, 523-31.
  2. Brown, G. W., Mood, A. M., 1951. On median tests for linear hypotheses. Proc. 2nd berkeley symp. 159- 66.
  3. Cox, D. R., Hinkley, D. V., 1974. Theoretical statistics. London: Chapman and Hall.
  4. Hoeffding, W., 1948. A class of statistics with asymptotically normal distribution. Ann. Math. Statist. 19, 293-325.

Research priorities for robust and beneficial artificial intelligence

(January 2015)


[Executive Summary] Success in the quest for artificial intelligence has the potential to bring unprecedented benefits to humanity, and it is therefore worthwhile to research how to maximize these benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls. This document gives numerous examples (which should by no means be construed as an exhaustive list) of such worthwhile research aimed at ensuring that AI remains robust and beneficial. [Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: an Open Letter] Artificial intelligence (AI) research has explored a variety of problems and approaches since ...


Ecological relevance of performance criteria for species distribution models

Ecological Modelling, Vol. 221, No. 16. (10 August 2010), pp. 1995-2002,


Species distribution models have often been developed based on ecological data. To develop reliable data-driven models, however, a sound model training and evaluation procedures are needed. A crucial step in these procedures is the assessment of the model performance, with as key component the applied performance criterion. Therefore, we reviewed seven performance criteria commonly applied in presence–absence modelling (the correctly classified instances, Kappa, sensitivity, specificity, the normalised mutual information statistic, the true skill statistic and the odds ratio) and analysed their ...


Architecture of Environmental Risk Modelling: for a faster and more robust response to natural disasters

In 3rd Conference of Computational Interdisciplinary Sciences (2014), pp. 46-57


Demands on the disaster response capacity of the European Union are likely to increase, as the impacts of disasters continue to grow both in size and frequency. This has resulted in intensive research on issues concerning spatially-explicit information and modelling and their multiple sources of uncertainty. Geospatial support is one of the forms of assistance frequently required by emergency response centres along with hazard forecast and event management assessment. Robust modelling of natural hazards requires dynamic simulations under an array of ...

Visual summary


Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: introduction to section 2

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 77, No. 6. (05 July 2010), pp. 917-923,


[Excerpt] In a broad sense, uncertainty can be simply defined as missing knowledge; i.e., the absence of information. With respect to policymaking, uncertainty refers to the gap between available knowledge and the knowledge policymakers would need in order to make the best policy choice. This uncertainty clearly involves subjectivity, since it is related to satisfaction with existing knowledge, which is colored by the underlying values and perspectives of the policymaker (and the various actors involved in the policymaking process). Uncertainty can ...


Supplementary materials for: a proposal for an integrated modelling framework to characterise habitat pattern



In Estreguil et al. (Environ Modell Softw 52, 176-191, 2014), an integrated modelling framework is proposed to characterise habitat pattern. The modelling approach is there exemplified by deriving a set of twelve indices aggregated into four categories: general landscape composition, habitat morphology, edge interface and connectivity. The easy and reproducible computability is ensured with the integrated use of publicly available software (GUIDOS free-download software, Conefor free software) and of newly programmed tools. A statistical analysis is then conducted using classical linear ...


There is no silver bullet: The value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance

Ecological Economics, Vol. 104 (August 2014), pp. 61-72,


[Highlights] [::] We consider short-term surveillance of an invasive pest in a diverse landscape. [::] Our case study is focused on the survey of emerald ash borer expansion in Canada. [::] The spread of the invader is described by distribution-model-based estimates. [::] A portfolio framework was applied to allocate resources for pest surveillance. [::] Diversification makes the survey less subject to errors in spread estimates. [Abstract] In this study we demonstrate how the notion of diversification can be used in broad-scale resource allocation for surveillance of ...


The links between human error diversity and software diversity: implications for fault diversity seeking

Science of Computer Programming (March 2014),


Software diversity is known to improve fault tolerance in N-version software systems by independent development. As the leading cause of software faults, human error is considered an important factor in diversity seeking. However, there is little scientific research focusing on how to seek software fault diversity based on human error mechanisms. A literature review was conducted to extract factors that may differentiate people with respect to human error-proneness. In addition, we constructed a conceptual model of the links between human error ...


Ensemble forecasting of species distributions

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 22, No. 1. (January 2007), pp. 42-47,


Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue ...


The greater good

Nature, Vol. 505, No. 7481. (2 January 2014), pp. 5-5,


Governments, funding agencies and universities must all do their bit to ensure that research is appropriately assessed and rewarded. ...


A proposal for an integrated modelling framework to characterise habitat pattern

Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 52 (February 2014), pp. 176-191,


[Highlights] [::] Habitat pattern characterisation as methodological guidance for fragmentation assessments (applied in Europe). [::] Reproducible integration of three landscape models with GIS and semantic array programming. [::] Four families indices: landscape composition, edge interface, habitat morphology and connectivity. [::] New indices: edge interface context of morphological shapes; Power Weighted Probability of Dispersal family for connectivity. [::] Nonlinear statistical correlation analysis based on Brownian Distance Correlation. [Abstract] Harmonized information on habitat pattern, fragmentation and connectivity is one among the reporting needs of the biodiversity policy agenda. This paper ...


Software uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: the role of semantics and open science

Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 15 (Nov 2013), 13292,


Computational aspects increasingly shape environmental sciences. Actually, transdisciplinary modelling of complex and uncertain environmental systems is challenging computational science (CS) and also the science-policy interface. Large spatial-scale problems falling within this category - i.e. wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) - often deal with factors for which deep-uncertainty may prevent usual statistical analysis of modelled quantities and need different ways for providing policy-making with science-based support. Here, practical recommendations are proposed for tempering a peculiar - not infrequently underestimated - source of uncertainty. Software errors in complex WSTMe may ...

Visual summary


Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions

Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, No. 3. (01 September 2013), 034031,


Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the ...


Interactions between landcover pattern and geospatial processing methods: Effects on landscape metrics and classification accuracy

Ecological Complexity, Vol. 15 (September 2013), pp. 71-82,


[Highlights] [::] Landscape spatial pattern and geospatial processing methods interact. [::] They affect landscape metrics and classification accuracy. [::] The geospatial processing methods tested were aggregation method and pixel size. [::] Absolute values of landscape metrics should be interpreted with caution. [::] Rankings of landscapes differences were consistent for the same processing methods. [Abstract] Landscape spatial pattern and geospatial processing methods interact. They affect landscape metrics and classification accuracy. The geospatial processing methods tested were aggregation method and pixel size. Absolute values of landscape metrics should be interpreted ...


Continental-scale living forest biomass and carbon stock: a robust fuzzy ensemble of IPCC Tier 1 maps for Europe

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 413 (2013), pp. 271-284,


Forest ecosystems play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon are therefore crucial for designing and implementing effective sustainable forest management options and forest related policies. In this contribution, we present European-wide maps of forest biomass and carbon stock spatially disaggregated at 1km x 1km. The maps originated from a spatialisation improvement of the IPCC methodology for estimating the forest biomass at IPCC Tier 1 level (IPCC-T1). [\n] Using a categorical ...

Visual summary


Multi-scale robust modelling of landslide susceptibility: regional rapid assessment and catchment robust fuzzy ensemble

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 413 (2013), pp. 321-335,


Landslide susceptibility assessment is a fundamental component of effective landslide prevention. One of the main challenges in landslides forecasting is the assessment of spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility. Despite the many different approaches, landslide susceptibility assessment still remains a challenge. A semi-quantitative method is proposed combining heuristic, deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a robust catchment scale assessment. A fuzzy ensemble model has been exploited for aggregating an array of different susceptibility zonation maps. Each susceptibility zonation has been obtained by applying ...


Six myths about mathematical modeling in geomorphology

Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 135 (2003), pp. 63-79,


Geomorphologists, geologists and hydrologists have always used models. Unfortunately an artificial schism between modelers and experimentalists (or "observationalists") commonly exists in our fields. This schism is founded on bias, misinterpretation, and myth. The schism is perpetuated by misuse and misrepresentation of data and models. In this paper we have tried to address six of those myths and illustrate, mostly with our experiences, why we think mathematical models are useful and necessary tools of the trade. First we argue for a broad ...


Free and Open Source Software underpinning the European Forest Data Centre

Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 15 (2013), 12101,


Worldwide, governments are growingly focusing on free and open source software (FOSS) as a move toward transparency and the freedom to run, copy, study, change and improve the software. The European Commission (EC) is also supporting the development of FOSS [...]. In addition to the financial savings, FOSS contributes to scientific knowledge freedom in computational science (CS) and is increasingly rewarded in the science-policy interface within the emerging paradigm of open science. Since complex computational science applications may be affected by ...


Toward open science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for integrated environmental modelling

Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 15 (2013), 13245,


[Excerpt] Interfacing science and policy raises challenging issues when large spatial-scale (regional, continental, global) environmental problems need transdisciplinary integration within a context of modelling complexity and multiple sources of uncertainty. This is characteristic of science-based support for environmental policy at European scale, and key aspects have also long been investigated by European Commission transnational research. Approaches (either of computational science or of policy-making) suitable at a given domain-specific scale may not be appropriate for wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) and ...


Software-level soft-error mitigation techniques

In Soft Errors in Modern Electronic Systems, Vol. 41 (2011), pp. 253-285,


Several application domains exist, where the effects of Soft Errors on processor-based systems cannot be faced by acting on the hardware (either by changing the technology, or the components, or the architecture, or whatever else). In these cases, an attractive solution lies in just modifying the software: the ability to detect and possibly correct errors is obtained by introducing redundancy in the code and in the data, without modifying the underlying hardware. This chapter provides an overview of the methods resorting ...


Reverse Engineering of Biological Complexity

Science, Vol. 295, No. 5560. (01 March 2002), pp. 1664-1669,


Advanced technologies and biology have extremely different physical implementations, but they are far more alike in systems-level organization than is widely appreciated. Convergent evolution in both domains produces modular architectures that are composed of elaborate hierarchies of protocols and layers of feedback regulation, are driven by demand for robustness to uncertain environments, and use often imprecise components. This complexity may be largely hidden in idealized laboratory settings and in normal operation, becoming conspicuous only when contributing to rare cascading failures. These ...


A new decision sciences for complex systems

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, No. suppl 3. (14 May 2002), pp. 7309-7313,


Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying ...


A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios

Management Science, Vol. 52, No. 4. (01 April 2006), pp. 514-528,


Robustness is a key criterion for evaluating alternative decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty. However, no systematic, general approach exists for finding robust strategies using the broad range of models and data often available to decision makers. This study demonstrates robust decision making (RDM), an analytic method that helps design robust strategies through an iterative process that first suggests candidate robust strategies, identifies clusters of future states of the world to which they are vulnerable, and then evaluates the trade-offs in ...


Climate-change strategy needs to be robust

Nature, Vol. 412, No. 6845. (26 July 2001), pp. 375-375,

Comparison of uncertainties in carbon sequestration estimates for a tropical and a temperate forest

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 256, No. 3. (July 2008), pp. 237-245,


We compare uncertainty through sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the modelling framework CO2FIX V.2. We apply the analyses to a Central European managed Norway spruce stand and a secondary tropical forest in Central America. Based on literature and experience we use three standard groups to express uncertainty in the input parameters: 5%, 10% and 20%. Sensitivity analyses show that parameters exhibiting highest influence on carbon sequestration are carbon content, wood density and current annual increment of stems. Three main conclusions arise ...

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Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
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