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Selection: with tag rcp85 [45 articles] 

 

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

  
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, No. 5. (01 May 2018), 054006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827

Abstract

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over ...

 

Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (14 May 2018), 201713628, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713628115

Abstract

[Significance] This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change ...

 

Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

  
Science, Vol. 346, No. 6211. (13 November 2014), pp. 851-854, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259100

Abstract

[Abstract] Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water ...

 

A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, No. 3. (12 February 2018), pp. 210-213, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0072-6

Abstract

Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1,2,3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5,6,7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new ...

 

Wildfires

  
In Present and future probability of meteorological and hydrological hazards in Europe (2016), pp. 112-118

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] Uncontrolled forest fires impact both natural and built-up environments as well as humans. The occurrence of a forest fire requires the same basic elements as any fire: heat, oxygen and fuel. Preceding and prevailing weather conditions are crucial for setting conditions susceptible to fire in a forest. Drought, high temperatures and pronounced evaporation dry off organic material in forests, i.e. the fuel. Strong wind during/after ignition substantially intensifies spreading of the fire and raises the likelihood of the surface ...

 

Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty

  
Keywords: adaptation   array-of-factors   biodiversity   biodiversity-impacts   burnt-area   climate-change   climate-extremes   communicating-uncertainty   data-transformation-modelling   data-uncertainty   downscaling   droughts   dynamic-system   ecosystem-resilience   emergent-property   euro-cordex   europe   extreme-events   extreme-weather   fire-damage   fire-danger-rating   fire-management   fire-weather-index   forest-fires   forest-management   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-scientific-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   human-behaviour   humidity   ipcc-scenarios   mastrave-modelling-library   mitigation   modelling-uncertainty   no-analog-pattern   peseta-series   precipitation   rcp85   resilience   resilience-vs-resistance   review   robust-modelling   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   scientific-communication   semantic-array-programming   spatial-pattern   species-richness   species-specific-effects   temperature   vegetation-changes   wildfires   wind  

Abstract

Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate. [\n] For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end ...

References

  1. de Rigo, D., Bosco, C., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Houston Durrant, T., Barredo, J. I., Strona, G., Caudullo, G., Di Leo, M., Boca, R., 2016. Forest resources in Europe: an integrated perspective on ecosystem services, disturbances and threats. In: San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Houston Durrant, T., Mauri, A. (Eds.), European Atlas of Forest Tree Species. Publ. Off. EU, Luxembourg, pp. e015b50+. https://w3id.org/mtv/FISE-Comm/v01/e015b50 .
  2. Alberdi Asensio, I., Baycheva-Merger, T., Bouvet, A., Bozzano,
 

Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections - Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

  
Vol. 28547 EN (2017), https://doi.org/10.2760/622174

Abstract

[Executive summary] This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the Peseta III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the Peseta III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe. [\n] The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most ...

 

Change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s - PESETA-3 project, final sector report on Task 9: Droughts

  
Vol. 28990 EN (2017), https://doi.org/10.2760/282880

Abstract

[Executive summary] This document reports the results of the analyses performed within the framework of the PESETA3 project regarding the Task 9 - Droughts. The main objective of this task is to provide robust scientific-based information to stakeholders and decision makers on the possible impacts of future climate scenarios on the occurrence of drought events. [\n] This report is focused on the analysis of the variations of soil moisture on the European continent, as well as of a soil moisture-based drought severity indicator ...

 

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

  
International Journal of Climatology (09 October 2017), https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5291

Abstract

As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized ...

 

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

  
Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7683. (6 December 2017), pp. 45-50, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24672

Abstract

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget ...

 

Less than 2 °C? An economic-environmental evaluation of the Paris Agreement

  
Ecological Economics, Vol. 146 (April 2018), pp. 69-84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.10.007

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] 188 countries' INDCs have been analysed from a policies, finance and emissions point of view. [::] Policies and finance are faced up with socio-economic and biophysical constraints. [::] Unilateralism and finance approach lead to mismatches between policies and global objectives. [::] Constraints and mismatches could explain the Paris Agreement ineffectiveness. [Abstract] The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies ...

 

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

  
Nature Geoscience (13 November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8

Abstract

Earth’s midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which ...

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

 

Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 8. (24 July 2017), pp. 568-572, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 17) under a most likely emission scenario, we ...

 

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618765114

Abstract

[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

Global risk of deadly heat

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 7. (19 June 2017), pp. 501-506, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Abstract

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published ...

 

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, No. 1. (21 January 2016), pp. 239-253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016

Abstract

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The ...

 

Annex III: glossary

  
In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465

Abstract

[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...

 

Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change

  
Climatic Change, Vol. 135, No. 3-4. (2016), pp. 409-424, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1586-9

Abstract

Robust decision-making is being increasingly used to support environmental resources decisions and policy analysis under changing climate and society. In this context, a robust decision is a decision that is as much as possible insensitive to a large degree of uncertainty and ensures certain performance across multiple plausible futures. Yet, the concept of robustness is neither unique nor static. Multiple robustness metrics, such as maximin, optimism-pessimism, max regret, have been proposed in the literature, reflecting diverse optimistic/pessimistic attitudes by the decision ...

 

Mediterranean habitat loss under future climate conditions: assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

  
Applied Geography, Vol. 75 (2016), pp. 83-92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.08.003

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] The Mediterranean climate domain is projected to loss 11–25% of its current extent. [::] Projected losses of the Mediterranean climate are due to shifts of the arid domain. [::] The Mediterranean domain is projected to shift by 53–121% of its current size. [::] These changes are projected to affect 15–23% of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 sites. [Abstract] The Mediterranean basin is a global hotspot of biological diversity and the most rich biodiversity region in Europe. Nevertheless, climate-driven habitat loss is one of the most serious ...

 

Terrestrial ecosystems, soil and forests

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 153-182, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] Observed climate change has had many impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, such as changes in soil conditions, advances in phenological stages, altitudinal and latitudinal migration of plant and animal species (generally northwards and upwards), and changes in species interactions and species composition in communities, including local extinctions. [::] The relative importance of climate change as a major driver of biodiversity and ecosystem change is projected to increase further in the future. In addition to climate change, human efforts to mitigate and adapt to ...

References

  1. Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Eickhout, B., 2011. Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: An example for plant species in Europe. Regional Environmental Change 11, 143–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0161-1 .
  2. Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A.,
 

Executive summary

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 12-30, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation ...

References

  1. Ciscar, J.-C., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A. K., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Van Doorslaer, B., Barrios, S., Ibáñez, N., Forzieri, G., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J. I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Van Regemorter, D., Revesz, T., Vandyck, T.,
 

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report

  
Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive summary] Key messages [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy ...

 

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: a comparison of two fire-vegetation models

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, No. 11. (1 November 2015), pp. 2256-2272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jg003036

Abstract

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semi-empirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a ...

 

Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, No. 5. (21 March 2016), pp. 520-525, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2964

Abstract

Evidence suggests that several elements of the climate system could be tipped into a different state by global warming, causing irreversible economic damages. To address their policy implications, we incorporated five interacting climate tipping points into a stochastic-dynamic integrated assessment model, calibrating their likelihoods and interactions on results from an existing expert elicitation. Here we show that combining realistic assumptions about policymakers’ preferences under uncertainty, with the prospect of multiple future interacting climate tipping points, increases the present social cost of ...

 

US exposure to multiple landscape stressors and climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 16, No. 7. (2016), pp. 2129-2140, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0934-2

Abstract

We examined landscape exposure to wildfire potential, insects and disease risk, and urban and exurban development for the conterminous US (CONUS). Our analysis relied on spatial data used by federal agencies to evaluate these stressors nationally. We combined stressor data with a climate change exposure metric to identify when temperature is likely to depart from historical conditions and become “unprecedented.” We used a neighborhood analysis procedure based on key stressor thresholds within a geographic information system to examine the extent of ...

 

Uncertainties in projecting future changes in atmospheric rivers and their impacts on heavy precipitation over Europe

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, No. 18. (24 June 2016), pp. 6711-6726, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0088.1

Abstract

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multimodel ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large intermodel variability strongly correlated with the intermodel spread of historical near-surface westerly jet position. Under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), AR frequency is projected to increase significantly by the end of ...

 

Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 15. (19 May 2015), pp. 6193-6203, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00779.1

Abstract

Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative ...

 

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 119, No. 22. (27 November 2014), pp. 12,500-12,512, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022098

Abstract

An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is ...

 

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1. (2 December 2012), pp. 4-6, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783

Abstract

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term. ...

 

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, No. 1. (15 January 2016), pp. 267-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016

Abstract

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather ...

 

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

  
Landscape Ecology (2016), pp. 1-13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0414-6

Abstract

[Context] Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. [Objectives] We used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas. [Methods] We assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of ...

 

RCP 8.5 - A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 33-57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y

Abstract

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE ...

 

Wildfires in a warmer climate: emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, No. 7. (16 April 2016), pp. 3195-3223, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024142

Abstract

Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ...

 

Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts and response strategies

  
(2008)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusion] This section summarizes the ways in which the parallel process for development of climate change scenarios described in this report relates to the six general questions introduced in Section I. [::1. Can new integrated scenarios that meet user needs be produced with the available resources and completed in time for consideration in a possible future IPCC assessment?] Earlier approaches to the use of scenarios in climate change science have followed the sequence of development of a complete set of emissions scenarios, development of the corresponding ...

 

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

  
Scientific Reports, Vol. 6 (27 July 2016), 30294, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30294

Abstract

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate ...

 

The sensitivity of global wildfires to simulated past, present, and future lightning frequency

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, No. 3. (March 2014), pp. 312-322, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jg002502

Abstract

In this study, components of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model were used to explore how changes in lightning induced by climate change alter wildfire activity. To investigate how climate change alters global flash frequency, simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 were performed for the time periods preindustrial, present-day, and three future scenarios. The effect of changes in lightning activity on fire occurrence was derived from simulations with the land surface vegetation model JSBACH. Global cloud-to-ground lightning activity ...

 

The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 3. (1 March 2014), pp. 164-166, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2148

Abstract

It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures are likely to rise above the 2 °C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate. ...

 

Wildfire suppression costs for Canada under a changing climate

  
PLoS ONE, Vol. 11, No. 8. (11 August 2016), e0157425, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0157425

Abstract

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned ...

 

Increasing daily wildfire risk in the Acadian Forest Region of Nova Scotia, Canada, under future climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 7. (2015), pp. 1447-1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0698-5

Abstract

A conceptual system dynamic model of the impact of future climate change on fire risk in the Nova Scotian Acadian Forest Region (NS AFR) was developed, clarifying the influence of positive and negative drivers of future fire risk. Weights of relative importance for seven wildfire risk drivers identified in the conceptual model were elicited through an analytical hierarchy process. Expert participants identified precipitation, temperature, and local tree species composition as the most important determinants of future fire risk. Fire weather variables ...

 

Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 24, No. 7. (2015), pp. 892-899, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf15083

Abstract

Very large fires (VLFs) have important implications for communities, ecosystems, air quality and fire suppression expenditures. VLFs over the contiguous US have been strongly linked with meteorological and climatological variability. Building on prior modelling of VLFs (>5000 ha), an ensemble of 17 global climate models were statistically downscaled over the US for climate experiments covering the historic and mid-21st-century periods to estimate potential changes in VLF occurrence arising from anthropogenic climate change. Increased VLF potential was projected across most historically fire-prone ...

 

Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

  
Nature, Vol. 529, No. 7587. (20 January 2016), pp. 477-483, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542

Abstract

Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries. ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 33

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   pyrus-tamamschianae   pyrus-theodorovii   pyrus-vallis-demonis   pyrus-voronovii   python   q-learning   qualitative-research   quantile-95   quantitive-variation   quantity-calculus   quantum-computing   quantum-gis   quarantine   quaternary   quercus-agrifolia   quercus-alnifolia   quercus-borealis   quercus-calliprinos   quercus-canariensis   quercus-castaneifolia   quercus-cerrioides   quercus-cerris   quercus-chrysolepis   quercus-coccifera   quercus-coccinea   quercus-crenata   quercus-dalechampii   quercus-douglasii   quercus-emoryi   quercus-engelmannii   quercus-faginea   quercus-falcata   quercus-frainetto   quercus-gambelii   quercus-garryana   quercus-hartwissiana   quercus-ilex   quercus-imbricaria   quercus-imeretina   quercus-kelloggii   quercus-lanuginosa   quercus-liaotungensis   quercus-lobata   quercus-macranthera   quercus-macrolepis   quercus-mirbeckii   quercus-mongolica   quercus-palustris   quercus-parvula   quercus-pedunculata   quercus-pedunculiflora   quercus-petraea   quercus-polycarpa   quercus-pontica   quercus-prinus   quercus-pubescens   quercus-pyrenaica   quercus-robur   quercus-rotundifolia   quercus-rubra   quercus-sessiflora   quercus-sessiliflora   quercus-sicula   quercus-spp   quercus-suber   quercus-trojana   quercus-variabilis   quercus-virgiliana   quercus-virginiana   quercus-wislizeni   quercus-x-morisii   radar   radial-growth   radiocarbon-chronology   rain-shadow   rainfall   rainfall-deciles   rainforest   rainy-days_daily-rainfall   random-forest   random-forests   random-walk   range-altitude   range-modelling   range-shift   rank-based-analysis   rapid-assessment   rare-events   rarely-observed-plant-species   rasterisation   ravine-forest   rcp26   rcp45   rcp60   rcp85   realised-vs-potential-range   realized-niche   reassuring-learning   receptivity  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2013)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/rcp85

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.