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Selection: with tag rcp26 [19 articles] 

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

 

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618765114

Abstract

[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

Global risk of deadly heat

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 7. (19 June 2017), pp. 501-506, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Abstract

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published ...

 

Annex III: glossary

  
In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465

Abstract

[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...

 

Terrestrial ecosystems, soil and forests

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 153-182, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] Observed climate change has had many impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, such as changes in soil conditions, advances in phenological stages, altitudinal and latitudinal migration of plant and animal species (generally northwards and upwards), and changes in species interactions and species composition in communities, including local extinctions. [::] The relative importance of climate change as a major driver of biodiversity and ecosystem change is projected to increase further in the future. In addition to climate change, human efforts to mitigate and adapt to ...

References

  1. Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Eickhout, B., 2011. Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: An example for plant species in Europe. Regional Environmental Change 11, 143–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0161-1 .
  2. Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A.,
 

Executive summary

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 12-30, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation ...

References

  1. Ciscar, J.-C., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A. K., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Van Doorslaer, B., Barrios, S., Ibáñez, N., Forzieri, G., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J. I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Van Regemorter, D., Revesz, T., Vandyck, T.,
 

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report

  
Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive summary] Key messages [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy ...

 

Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography: a comparison of two fire-vegetation models

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, No. 11. (1 November 2015), pp. 2256-2272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jg003036

Abstract

Global environmental changes and human activity influence wildland fires worldwide, but the relative importance of the individual factors varies regionally and their interplay can be difficult to disentangle. Here we evaluate projected future changes in burned area at the European and sub-European scale, and we investigate uncertainties in the relative importance of the determining factors. We simulated future burned area with LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE, a patch-dynamic global vegetation model with a semi-empirical fire model, and LPJmL-SPITFIRE, a dynamic global vegetation model with a ...

 

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 119, No. 22. (27 November 2014), pp. 12,500-12,512, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022098

Abstract

An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is ...

 

Wildfires in a warmer climate: emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, No. 7. (16 April 2016), pp. 3195-3223, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024142

Abstract

Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ...

 

Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts and response strategies

  
(2008)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusion] This section summarizes the ways in which the parallel process for development of climate change scenarios described in this report relates to the six general questions introduced in Section I. [::1. Can new integrated scenarios that meet user needs be produced with the available resources and completed in time for consideration in a possible future IPCC assessment?] Earlier approaches to the use of scenarios in climate change science have followed the sequence of development of a complete set of emissions scenarios, development of the corresponding ...

 

The sensitivity of global wildfires to simulated past, present, and future lightning frequency

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, No. 3. (March 2014), pp. 312-322, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013jg002502

Abstract

In this study, components of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model were used to explore how changes in lightning induced by climate change alter wildfire activity. To investigate how climate change alters global flash frequency, simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 were performed for the time periods preindustrial, present-day, and three future scenarios. The effect of changes in lightning activity on fire occurrence was derived from simulations with the land surface vegetation model JSBACH. Global cloud-to-ground lightning activity ...

 

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

  
Nature, Vol. 502, No. 7470. (9 October 2013), pp. 183-187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an ...

 

Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation

  
Energy Economics, Vol. 31 (21 December 2009), pp. S152-S162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.010

Abstract

In this article we explore several scenarios that aim at meeting radiative forcing targets at 4.5, 3.7, 2.9 and 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100. These scenarios are run under the assumption of participation of all countries by 2012 in climate policy and under the assumption of a significant delay in the participation of Russia and non-Annex I countries (up to 2030 and 2050). The study finds the lowest radiative forcing categories to be feasible under full participation, certainly if overshoot of ...

 

Wildfire suppression costs for Canada under a changing climate

  
PLoS ONE, Vol. 11, No. 8. (11 August 2016), e0157425, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0157425

Abstract

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned ...

 

Increasing daily wildfire risk in the Acadian Forest Region of Nova Scotia, Canada, under future climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 7. (2015), pp. 1447-1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0698-5

Abstract

A conceptual system dynamic model of the impact of future climate change on fire risk in the Nova Scotian Acadian Forest Region (NS AFR) was developed, clarifying the influence of positive and negative drivers of future fire risk. Weights of relative importance for seven wildfire risk drivers identified in the conceptual model were elicited through an analytical hierarchy process. Expert participants identified precipitation, temperature, and local tree species composition as the most important determinants of future fire risk. Fire weather variables ...

 

Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

  
Nature, Vol. 529, No. 7587. (20 January 2016), pp. 477-483, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542

Abstract

Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries. ...

 

Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2013)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive ...

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