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Selection: with tag precipitation [137 articles] 

 

More rain, less soil: long-term changes in rainfall intensity with climate change

  
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 41, No. 4. (30 March 2016), pp. 563-566, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3868

Abstract

This commentary discusses the role of long-term climate change in driving increases in soil erosion. Assuming that land use and management remain effectively constant, we discuss changes in the ability of rainfall to cause erosion (erosivity), using long daily rainfall data sets from southeast England. An upward trend in mean rainfall per rain day is detected at the century-plus timescale. Implications for soil erosion and sediment delivery are discussed and evidence from other regions reviewed. We conclude that rates of soil ...

 

WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas

  
International Journal of Climatology (15 May 2017), https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086

Abstract

We created a new dataset of spatially interpolated monthly climate data for global land areas at a very high spatial resolution (approximately 1 km2). We included monthly temperature (minimum, maximum and average), precipitation, solar radiation, vapour pressure and wind speed, aggregated across a target temporal range of 1970–2000, using data from between 9000 and 60 000 weather stations. Weather station data were interpolated using thin-plate splines with covariates including elevation, distance to the coast and three satellite-derived covariates: maximum and minimum land surface ...

 

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

  
Global Change Biology (March 2017), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13679

Abstract

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different ...

 

Silver fir defoliation likelihood is related to negative growth trends and high warming sensitivity at their southernmost distribution limit

  
ISRN Forestry, Vol. 2012 (2012), pp. 1-8, https://doi.org/10.5402/2012/437690

Abstract

Changes in radial growth have been used to estimate tree decline probability since they may indicate tree responses to long- and short-term stressors. We used visual assessments of crown defoliation, an indicator of decline, and retrospective tree-ring analyses to determine whether climate-growth sensitivity and tree growth rates may be used as predictors of tree die-off probability in Abies alba (silver fir) at the Spanish Pyrenees. We used climatic data to calculate standardized temperature and precipitation data and drought indexes. Basal area ...

 

Do changes in spatial distribution, structure and abundance of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) indicate its decline?

  
Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 261, No. 4. (08 February 2011), pp. 844-854, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2010.12.014

Abstract

Silver fir decline was investigated based on changes in spatial distribution of fir, fir abundance in forest stands, dbh (age) structure of fir, and abundance of fir regeneration. The authors used a large-scale approach to study the dynamics of silver fir over nearly 40 years. Based on Silva-SI, a spatial information system, the majority of total forest area in Slovenia was analysed for changes in the distribution of silver fir in the period 1970–2008 using artificial neural networks (ANNs), with respect ...

 

Meteorological droughts in Europe: events and impacts - Past trends and future projections

  

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive Summary] Observational records from 1950 onwards and climate projections for the 21st century provide evidence that droughts are a recurrent climate feature in large parts of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean, but also in western, south-eastern and central Europe. Trends over the past 60 years show an increasing frequency, duration and intensity of droughts in these regions, while a negative trend has been observed in north-eastern Europe. With a changing climate, this tendency is likely to be reinforced during the 21st century, affecting a wide range of ...

 

Evidence of divergent selection for drought and cold tolerance at landscape and local scales in Abies alba Mill. in the French Mediterranean Alps

  
Molecular Ecology, Vol. 25, No. 3. (February 2016), pp. 776-794, https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.13516

Abstract

Understanding local adaptation in forest trees is currently a key research and societal priority. Geographically and ecologically marginal populations provide ideal case studies, because environmental stress along with reduced gene flow can facilitate the establishment of locally adapted populations. We sampled European silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) trees in the French Mediterranean Alps, along the margin of its distribution range, from pairs of high- and low-elevation plots on four different mountains situated along a 170-km east–west transect. The analysis of 267 ...

 

Environmental versus geographical determinants of genetic structure in two subalpine conifers

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 201, No. 1. (January 2014), pp. 180-192, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12476

Abstract

[::] Alpine ecosystems are facing rapid human-induced environmental changes, and so more knowledge about tree adaptive potential is needed. This study investigated the relative role of isolation by distance (IBD) versus isolation by adaptation (IBA) in explaining population genetic structure in Abies alba and Larix decidua, based on 231 and 233 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) sampled across 36 and 22 natural populations, respectively, in the Alps and Apennines. [::] Genetic structure was investigated for both geographical and environmental groups, using analysis of ...

 

Terrestrial ecosystems, soil and forests

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 153-182, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] Observed climate change has had many impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, such as changes in soil conditions, advances in phenological stages, altitudinal and latitudinal migration of plant and animal species (generally northwards and upwards), and changes in species interactions and species composition in communities, including local extinctions. [::] The relative importance of climate change as a major driver of biodiversity and ecosystem change is projected to increase further in the future. In addition to climate change, human efforts to mitigate and adapt to ...

References

  1. Alkemade, R., Bakkenes, M., Eickhout, B., 2011. Towards a general relationship between climate change and biodiversity: An example for plant species in Europe. Regional Environmental Change 11, 143–150. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0161-1 .
  2. Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A.,
 

Executive summary

  
In Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report, Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), pp. 12-30, https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Key messages] [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation ...

References

  1. Ciscar, J.-C., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A. K., Fumagalli, D., Niemeyer, S., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Van Doorslaer, B., Barrios, S., Ibáñez, N., Forzieri, G., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J. I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Van Regemorter, D., Revesz, T., Vandyck, T.,
 

Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016 - An indicator-based report

  
Vol. 1/2017 (January 2017), https://doi.org/10.2800/534806

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive summary] Key messages [::] All of the key findings from the 2012 European Environment Agency (EEA) report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe are still valid. [::] Climate change is continuing globally and in Europe. Land and sea temperatures are increasing; precipitation patterns are changing, generally making wet regions in Europe wetter, particularly in winter, and dry regions drier, particularly in summer; sea ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; sea levels are rising; and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, heavy ...

 

The impacts of logging on landslide activity at Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia

  
CATENA, Vol. 38, No. 4. (February 2000), pp. 279-300, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0341-8162(99)00078-8

Abstract

The objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of logging on landslide activity in Clayoquot Sound on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia. A total of 1004 landslides were documented in order to test the hypothesis that areas affected by logging activities show different density, frequency and magnitude characteristics of landsliding than areas unaffected by logging. The frequency of landslides in logged terrain was found to be nine times higher than in undisturbed forest. An exponential increase ...

 

Simultaneous estimation of daily solar radiation and humidity from observed temperature and precipitation: an application over complex terrain in Austria

  
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 104, No. 4. (15 September 2000), pp. 255-271, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0168-1923(00)00170-2

Abstract

Using daily observations of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and humidity from 24 stations spanning a large elevation gradient in Austria, we tested several previously defined algorithms for estimating daily radiation and humidity. The estimation algorithms were first tested independently, and then combined, resulting in a combined algorithm for estimating both radiation and humidity that relies only on temperature and precipitation inputs. Mean absolute errors (MAE) for joint radiation and humidity estimates were 2.52 MJ m −2 per day and 85.6 Pa, respectively, close to values ...

 

Climate and species functional traits influence maximum live tree stocking in the Lake States, USA

  
Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 386 (February 2017), pp. 51-61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.12.007

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Specific gravity and shade tolerance impact maximum stocking of tree species. [::] Temperature and precipitation interact with these traits to govern maximum stocking. [::] The results provide a simple, additive density measure for these complex forests. [Abstract] Quantifying the density of live trees in forest stands and partitioning it between species or other stand components is critical for predicting forest dynamics and responses to management, as well as understanding the impacts of stand composition and structure on productivity. As plant traits such as shade ...

 

Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient

  
Ecology, Vol. 92, No. 1. (2011), pp. 121-132, https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1843.1

Abstract

We provide an empirical, global test of the varying constraints hypothesis, which predicts systematic heterogeneity in the relative importance of biomass resources to burn and atmospheric conditions suitable to burning (weather/climate) across a spatial gradient of long-term resource availability. Analyses were based on relationships between monthly global wildfire activity, soil moisture, and mid-tropospheric circulation data from 2001 to 2007, synthesized across a gradient of long-term averages in resources (net primary productivity), annual temperature, and terrestrial biome.We demonstrate support for the varying ...

 

Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, No. 45. (09 November 2010), pp. 19167-19170, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1003669107

Abstract

Recent bursts in the incidence of large wildfires worldwide have raised concerns about the influence climate change and humans might have on future fire activity. Comparatively little is known, however, about the relative importance of these factors in shaping global fire history. Here we use fire and climate modeling, combined with land cover and population estimates, to gain a better understanding of the forces driving global fire trends. Our model successfully reproduces global fire activity record over the last millennium and ...

 

Hydrological impact of forest fires and climate change in a Mediterranean basin

  
Natural Hazards, Vol. 66, No. 2. (2013), pp. 609-628, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0503-z

Abstract

Forest fire can modify and accelerate the hydrological response of Mediterranean basins submitted to intense rainfall: during the years following a fire, the effects on the hydrological response may be similar to those produced by the growth of impervious areas. Moreover, climate change and global warming in Mediterranean areas can imply consequences on both flash flood and fire hazards, by amplifying these phenomena. Based on historical events and post-fire experience, a methodology to interpret the impacts of forest fire in terms ...

 

Current methods to assess fire danger potential

  
In Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping, Vol. 4 (1 September 2003), pp. 21-61, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789812791177_0002

Abstract

Abstract A review of the main operational systems for fire risk/danger rating is presented in this chapter. The systems included in the revision are a European proposal based on the Fire Potential Index and a structural risk index, the US National Fire Danger Rating System, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, the Australian and the New Zealand systems. The basis and different components of these danger rating methods are presented and commented. ...

 

The National Fire-Danger Rating System: basic equations

  
Vol. PSW-82 (1985)

Abstract

Updating the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) was completed in 1977, and operational use of it was begun the next year. The System provides a guide to wildfire control and suppression by its indexes that measure the relative potential of initiating fires. Such fires do not behave erratically–they spread without spotting through continuous ground fuels. Estimates of fire potential have a basis in the mathematical models used for fire behavior. The fire manager must select the fuel model that best represents ...

 

Meteorological aspects of forest fire danger rating

  
Journal of the South African Forestry Association, Vol. 29, No. 1. (1 January 1957), pp. 31-38, https://doi.org/10.1080/03759873.1957.9630816

Abstract

The effect of past weather conditions on inflammability and the influence of weather on fire behaviour are discussed. Using a method of deriving inflammability from rainfall, temperature and humidity data the frequency of days of high inflammability in January, February and March in the Cape over eight years is derived and shows a maximum in mid-February. With the use of a burning index meter daily values of fire danger rating at the Cape for the same months in 1953–1955 are derived. ...

 

Uncertainties in projecting future changes in atmospheric rivers and their impacts on heavy precipitation over Europe

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, No. 18. (24 June 2016), pp. 6711-6726, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0088.1

Abstract

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multimodel ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large intermodel variability strongly correlated with the intermodel spread of historical near-surface westerly jet position. Under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), AR frequency is projected to increase significantly by the end of ...

 

Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 15. (19 May 2015), pp. 6193-6203, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00779.1

Abstract

Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative ...

 

On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894-2010)

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 22, No. 4. (2013), 493, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf12003

Abstract

Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air ...

 

Exploring the spatial patterns of fire density in southern Europe using geographically weighted regression

  
Applied Geography, Vol. 51 (July 2014), pp. 143-157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.04.002

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] We explored the spatial patterns of fire density in two regions of Southern Europe. [::] Geographically Weighted Regression was applied to investigate main drivers of fire. [::] A strong spatial variability of the explanatory power of the variables was found. [::] Precipitation, livestock and shrubland were significant factors in both regions. [::] Fire prevention strategies can be adjusted to particular fire conditions in an area. [Abstract] The spatial patterns of fire occurrence were analyzed in two regions of Southern Europe, focusing on the long-term factors that ...

 

Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire

  
Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 409, No. 18. (August 2011), pp. 3472-3481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032

Abstract

Identifying and quantifying the statistical relationships between climate and anthropogenic drivers of fire is important for global biophysical modelling of wildfire and other Earth system processes. This study used regression tree and random forest analysis on global data for various climatic and human variables to establish their relative importance. The main interactions found at the global scale also apply regionally: greatest wildfire burned area is associated with high temperature (> 28 °C), intermediate annual rainfall (350–1100 mm), and prolonged dry periods (which varies by ...

 

Relating changes in duff moisture to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Populus tremuloides stands in Elk Island National Park

  
Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 37, No. 10. (1 October 2007), pp. 1987-1998

Abstract

The manner in which trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forest duff moisture changes during the growing season was investigated in Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada. A calibration–validation procedure incorporating one calibration site with moisture sampling across three topographic positions was used to develop predictive models, which were subsequently compared with 12 validation sites across three vegetation types throughout the Park. Duff moisture was modelled against the Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index ...

 

A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80)

  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 4. (1 April 1988), pp. 441-452, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1988)027<0441:asotro>2.0.co;2

Abstract

The relation between meteorological variables and the monthly area burned by wildfire from May to August 1953–80 in nine Canadian “provinces” was investigated. A purely statistical approach to estimating the monthly provincial area burned, using meteorological variables as predictors, succeeded in explaining 30% of the variance west of Lake Nipigon and about 11% east of Lake Nipigon. [\n] Long sequences of days with less than 1.5 mm of rain or days with relative humidities less than 60% proved to have the highest ...

 

Climate change: the 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems

  
Science, Vol. 354, No. 6311. (28 October 2016), pp. 465-468, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah5015

Abstract

[A warming limit for the Mediterranean basin] Pollen cores from sediments provide rich detail on the history of vegetation and climate in the Mediterranean during the Holocene (the most recent ~10,000 years). Guiot and Cramer used this information as a baseline against which to compare predictions of future climate and vegetation under different climate-change scenarios. Vegetation and land-use systems observed in the Holocene records may persist under a 1.5°C warming above preindustrial temperature levels. A 2°C warming, however, is likely over the ...

 

Regional climate hindcast simulations within EURO-CORDEX: evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble

  
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, No. 3. (16 March 2015), pp. 603-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015

Abstract

In the current work we present six hindcast WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) simulations for the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) domain with different configurations in microphysics, convection and radiation for the time period 1990–2008. All regional model simulations are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and have the same spatial resolution (0.44°). These simulations are evaluated for surface temperature, precipitation, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface and total cloud cover. The analysis of the WRF ensemble ...

 

Projections of climate change indices of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of bias-adjusted high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 121, No. 10. (27 May 2016), pp. 2015JD024411-5511, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024411

Abstract

Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate ...

 

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

  
(21 Sep 2016)

Abstract

High resolution information of climatic conditions is essential to many application in environmental sciences. Here we present the CHELSA algorithm to downscale temperature and precipitation estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) climatic reanalysis interim (ERA-Interim) to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The algorithm for temperature is based on a statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperature from the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors such as wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, ...

 

CHELSA climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas (Version 1.1)

  

Abstract

CHELSA_v1.1 (http://chelsa-climate.org/) is a high resolution (30 arc sec, ~1 km) climate data set for the earth land surface areas. It includes monthly and annual mean temperature and precipitation patterns as well as derived bioclimatic and interannual parameters for the time period 1979-2013. CHELSA_v1.1 is based on a quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling of the ERA interim global circulation model (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim) with a GPCC (https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/gpcc/gpcc.html) and GHCN (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnm/) bias correction. ...

 

Increasing daily wildfire risk in the Acadian Forest Region of Nova Scotia, Canada, under future climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 7. (2015), pp. 1447-1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0698-5

Abstract

A conceptual system dynamic model of the impact of future climate change on fire risk in the Nova Scotian Acadian Forest Region (NS AFR) was developed, clarifying the influence of positive and negative drivers of future fire risk. Weights of relative importance for seven wildfire risk drivers identified in the conceptual model were elicited through an analytical hierarchy process. Expert participants identified precipitation, temperature, and local tree species composition as the most important determinants of future fire risk. Fire weather variables ...

 

Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

  
Nature, Vol. 529, No. 7587. (20 January 2016), pp. 477-483, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542

Abstract

Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries. ...

 

Tree cover and seasonal precipitation drive understorey flammability in alpine mountain forests

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 43, No. 9. (September 2016), pp. 1869-1880, https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12745

Abstract

[Aim] Little is known about the understorey flammability of European mountain forests. The aim of this study was to determine the relative effects of climate, vegetation structure and composition on the fuel-driven variation in fire spread and intensity. [Location] The western Alps. [Methods] Fire spread and intensity were simulated under constant moisture and weather conditions for a wide range of understorey fuel parameters measured in the litter, grass and shrub layers. Simulation outputs were used to compare understorey flammability between different forest ecosystem types (FET). The ...

 

Meteorology: air particles boost rain extremes

  
Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7620. (14 September 2016), pp. 282-282, https://doi.org/10.1038/537282b

Abstract

[Excerpt] As the climate warms, tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere may have a greater effect than greenhouse gases on increasing the frequency of extreme rain and snowfall. [\n] Greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols both drive extreme precipitation, which is expected to increase with climate change. [...] ...

 

Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols

  
Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 43, No. 18. (28 September 2016), 2016GL070869, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070869

Abstract

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present-day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar ...

 

Global fire size distribution is driven by human impact and climate

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 24, No. 1. (January 2015), pp. 77-86, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12246

Abstract

[Aim] In order to understand fire's impacts on vegetation dynamics, it is crucial that the distribution of fire sizes be known. We approached this distribution using a power-law distribution, which derives from self-organized criticality theory (SOC). We compute the global spatial variation in the power-law exponent and determine the main factors that explain its spatial distribution. [Location] Global, at 2° grid resolution. [Methods] We use satellite-derived MODIS burned-area data (MCD45) to obtain global individual fire size data for 2002–2010, grouped together for each 2° grid. A ...

 

Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

  
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 28, No. 8. (2014), pp. 2015-2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0891-6

Abstract

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous ...

 

A climate-based model to predict potential treeline position around the globe

  
Alpine Botany, Vol. 124, No. 1. (2014), pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00035-014-0124-0

Abstract

In situ temperature measurements revealed that the position of the high-elevation treeline is associated with a minimum seasonal mean air temperature within a temperature-defined minimum season length across latitudes. Here, we build upon this experience and present the results of a global statistical analysis and a predictive model for low temperature treeline positions. We identified 376 natural treelines from satellite images across the globe, and searched for their closest climatic proxies using a climate database. The analysis included a snow and ...

 

Wildfire-related debris flow from a hazards perspective

  
In Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena (2005), pp. 363-385, https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27129-5_15

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] Wildland fire can have profound effects on the hydrologic response of a watershed. Consumption of the rainfall-intercepting canopy and of the soil-mantling litter and duff, intensive drying of the soil, combustion of soil-binding organic matter, and the enhancement or formation of water-repellent soils can change the infiltration characteristics and erodibility of the soil, leading to decreased rainfall infiltration, subsequent significantly increased overland flow and runoff in channels, and movement of soil (e.g., Swanson, 1981; Spittler, 1995; Doerr et al., 2000; Martin and Moody, 2001; ...

 

The potential predictability of fire danger provided by numerical weather prediction

  
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (5 August 2016), https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0297.1

Abstract

A global fire danger rating system driven by atmospheric model forcing has been developed with the aim of providing early warning information to civil protection authorities. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the US Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian forest service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (MARK-5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting ...

 

Bistability, spatial interaction, and the distribution of tropical forests and savannas

  
Ecosystems (2016), pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0011-1

Abstract

Recent work has indicated that tropical forest and savanna can be alternative stable states under a range of climatic conditions. However, dynamical systems theory suggests that in case of strong spatial interactions between patches of forest and savanna, a boundary between both states is only possible at conditions in which forest and savanna are equally stable, called the ‘Maxwell point.’ Frequency distributions of MODIS tree-cover data at 250 m resolution were used to estimate such Maxwell points with respect to the ...

 

MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

  
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions (30 May 2016), pp. 1-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-236

Abstract

Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of time scale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim ...

 

Spatial downscaling of European climate data

  
Int. J. Climatol., Vol. 36, No. 3. (1 March 2016), pp. 1444-1458, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4436

Abstract

E-OBS(European Observations) is a gridded climate data set which contains maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation on a daily time step. The data can be as fine as 0.25° in resolution and extends over the entire European continent and parts of Africa and Asia. However, for studying regional or local climatic effects, a finer resolution would be more appropriate. A continental data set with resolution would allow research that is large in scale and still locally relevant. Until now, a climate ...

 

Homogenization in forest performance across an environmental gradient – The interplay between rainfall and topographic aspect

  
Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 310 (December 2013), pp. 256-266, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.08.026

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Large- and small-scale factors interact in their effect on forest performance. [::] Performance homogenization across habitats was linearly related to rainfall. [::] Homogenization was associated with drought conditions, both in time and space. [Abstract] This study aimed to investigate the interaction between local and regional environmental factors that affect forest performance during drought periods. In previous studies, contradictory results regarding the effect of aspect on forests performance, under different settings, were reported. However, each study focused on a different forest ecosystem at a different ...

 

Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 24, No. 1. (2015), 14, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf14023

Abstract

We related measurements of annual burned area in the southwest United States during 1984–2013 to records of climate variability. Within forests, annual burned area correlated at least as strongly with spring–summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as with 14 other drought-related metrics, including more complex metrics that explicitly represent fuel moisture. Particularly strong correlations with VPD arise partly because this term dictates the atmospheric moisture demand. Additionally, VPD responds to moisture supply, which is difficult to measure and model regionally due to ...

 

Estimate of the (R)USLE rainfall erosivity factor from monthly precipitation data in mainland Spain

  
Journal of Iberian Geology, Vol. 42, No. 1. (07 June 2016), https://doi.org/10.5209/rev_jige.2016.v42.n1.49120

Abstract

The need for continuous recording rain gauges makes it difficult to determine the rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) of the (R)USLE model in areas without good temporal data coverage. In mainland Spain, the Nature Conservation Institute (ICONA) determined the R-factor at few selected pluviographs, so simple estimates of the R-factor are definitely of great interest. The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify a readily available estimate of the R-factor for mainland Spain; (2) to discuss the applicability of a single ...

 

Comparison between the USLE, the USLE-M and replicate plots to model rainfall erosion on bare fallow areas

  
CATENA, Vol. 145 (October 2016), pp. 39-46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.05.017

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Examines ability of soil losses from a plot to predict those from another [::] Stochastic and systemic variations observed when replicate model used [::] Replicate model tends to perform better that USLE-M when runoff known. [Abstract] It has been proposed that the best physical model of erosion from a plot is provided by a replicate plot (Nearing, 1998). Event data from paired bare fallow plots in the USLE database were used to examine the abilities of replicate plots, the USLE and the USLE-M to ...

 

The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales

  
In Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology (January 1993)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] The definition of drought has continually been a stumbling block for drought monitoring and analysis. Wilhite and Glantz (1985) completed a thorough review of dozens of drought definitions and identified six overall categories: meteorological, climatological, atmospheric, agricultural, hydrologic and water management. Dracup et al. (1980) also reviewed definitions. All points of view seem to agree that drought is a condition of insufficient moisture caused by a deficit in precipitation over some time period. Difficulties are primarily related to the time period over which deficits accumulate and to the connection of the deficit in precipitation to deficits in usable ...

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