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Selection: with tag peseta-series [10 articles] 


Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections - Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Vol. 28547 EN (2017),


[Executive summary] This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the Peseta III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the Peseta III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe. [\n] The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most ...


Change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s - PESETA-3 project, final sector report on Task 9: Droughts

Vol. 28990 EN (2017),


[Executive summary] This document reports the results of the analyses performed within the framework of the PESETA3 project regarding the Task 9 - Droughts. The main objective of this task is to provide robust scientific-based information to stakeholders and decision makers on the possible impacts of future climate scenarios on the occurrence of drought events. [\n] This report is focused on the analysis of the variations of soil moisture on the European continent, as well as of a soil moisture-based drought severity indicator ...


Seventh national communication and third biennial report from the European Union under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - Required under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

(December 2017)


[Executive summary] [::Introduction] The European Union (EU) and its Member States, both jointly and individually, have engaged in domestic and international action on climate change for a number of years and this has resulted in significant emission reductions. The staff working documents accompanying this report constitute the EU’s seventh national communication as required under Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol, and its third biennial report as required under Decision 2/CP.17 of the ...


Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

Keywords: abies-alba   array-of-factors   artificial-neural-networks   bioclimatic-predictors   change-factor   climate-change   data-uncertainty   diversity   environmental-modelling   europe   extrapolation-uncertainty   featured-publication   forest-resources   free-scientific-knowledge   free-scientific-software   free-software   fuzzy   gdal   genetic-diversity   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integration-techniques   mastrave-modelling-library   maximum-habitat-suitability   modelling-uncertainty   multiplicity   peseta-series   python   regional-climate-models   relative-distance-similarity   robust-modelling   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   spatial-disaggregation   sres-a1b   supervised-training   unsupervised-training  


[::] In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, their complex interaction with climate change is not yet well understood. [::] The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. [::] Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). [::] Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as case study: a main European tree ...


  1. European Commission, 2013. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest based sector. No. COM(2013) 659 final. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. , INRMM-MiD:12642065 .
  2. European Commission, 2013. Commission staff working document accompanying the document: Communication from the commission to

Modeling the impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in Europe: sectorial results of the PESETA II Project



This constitutes a sectorial analysis of the PESETA II project of the European Commission Joint Research Center in the area of wildfires. [\n] Wildfires are a serious threat to European forests, and climate is the most important driving factor affecting wildfire potential over time (Flannigan et al., 2000). Wildfires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, ...


Modelling impacts of climate change on forest fire danger

No. JRC78846. (2013)


Forest fires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On the other hand, active forest management and wildfire management practices have some potential to counteract the impacts of a changing climate. Meteorological fire danger indices evaluate and summarize the fire danger considering ...


  1. Alexander, M.E., 2008. Proposed revision of fire danger class criteria for forest and rural areas in New Zealand. Christchurch: National Rural Fire Authority, Wellington, in association with the Scion Rural Fire Research Group.
  2. Balshi, M.S., McGuire, A.D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Walsh, J., Melillo, J., 2009. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Global Change Biology, 15, 578-600.

Predicting future forest ranges using array-based geospatial semantic modelling

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 7, No. 2. (2014), 827545,


Studying the impacts of climate change requires looking at a multitude of variables across a broad range of sectors . Information on the variables involved is often unevenly available or offers different uncertainties, and a lack of uniform terminology and methods further complicates the process of analysis, resulting in communication gaps when research enterprises span different sectors. For example, models designed by experts in one given discipline might assume conventions in language or oversimplify cross-disciplinary links in a way that is ...

Visual summary


Implementation of the IPCC SRES Scenario A1B with the Land Use Modelling Platform contribution to the JRC PESETA II project



The Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP) has been chosen to simulate land-use changes under a subset of scenarios (A1B). The modular structure of this platform, together with its high spatial resolution (100m), makes LUMP a suitable tool in the context of PESETAII. First, it guarantees high flexibility in adapting to the input/output interface required by the macro-economic models developed within this project. Moreover, an important added value to the modelling chain of PESETAII is the capability of taking into account specific ...


  1. Baruth, B., Genovese, G., Montanarella, L., (Eds). 2006. New soil information for the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System. JRC Report. ISBN 92-79-03376-X.
  2. Batista e Silva F., Koomen E., Diogo V., Lavalle C., 2013. Estimating demand for industrial and commercial land use given economic forecasts. PLOS ONE. In review.
  3. Batista e Silva, F., Lavalle, C., Koomen, E., 2013. A procedure to obtain a refined European land use/cover map. Journal of Land Use

Climate impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project

edited by J. C. Ciscar


The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison ...


  1. Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., Wei, T., 2012. Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in European Economies. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 959-968. .
  2. Alley, R.B., Whillans, I.M., 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254 (5034), 959–963. .
  3. Anstey, J., Davini, P., Gray, L., Woollings, T., 2012. Multi-model analysis of winter blocking and tropospheric jet variability: The roles of horizontal and vertical resolution. Submitted to J.

Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment

In Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects (May 2013), pp. 87-96,


The JRC PESETA II study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic CGE model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure). The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across EU regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific ...


  1. Brown,S., Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A., Hinkel, J., Watkiss, P., 2011. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise in Europe and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation. Summary of Results from the EC RTD ClimateCost Project. In Watkiss, P., (Editor), 2011. The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. Published by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, 2011. ISBN 978-91-86125-35-6.
  2. Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2012. Modelling impacts of climate change on forest
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