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Selection: with tag paleo-climate [27 articles] 


Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

Nature, Vol. 531, No. 7596. (31 March 2016), pp. 591-597,


Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes ...


Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity

Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, No. 1. (2016), pp. 1-14,


Fire is an integral component of the Earth system that will critically affect how terrestrial carbon budgets and living systems respond to climate change. Paleo and observational records document robust positive relationships between fire activity and aridity in many parts of the world on interannual to millennial timescales. Observed increases in fire activity and aridity in many areas over the past several decades motivate curiosity as to the degree to which anthropogenic climate change will alter global fire regimes and subsequently ...


Strong paleoclimatic legacies in current plant functional diversity patterns across Europe

Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, No. 10. (1 May 2016), pp. 3405-3416,


Numerous studies indicate that environmental changes during the late Quaternary have elicited long-term disequilibria between species diversity and environment. Despite its importance for ecosystem functioning, the importance of historical environmental conditions as determinants of FD (functional diversity) remains largely unstudied. We quantified the geographic distributions of plant FD (richness and dispersion) across Europe using distribution and functional trait information for 2702 plant species. We then compared the importance of historical and contemporary factors to determine the relevance of past conditions as ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 27

(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   off-site-effects   ogc   olea-europaea   olea-spp   oleoresin   olive-decline   olive-oil   ombrotrophic   omphalodes-verna   on-site-effects   ononis-fruticosa   ontologies   open-access   open-access-embargo   open-data   open-field   open-loop-control   open-science   open-source   open-standards   open-woodland   opengis   openlayers   openstreetmap   operating-system   operational-research   operophtera-antiqua   operophtera-brumata   ophiostoma-novo-ulmi   ophiostoma-spp   ophiostoma-ulmi   opportunistic-plant-pests   optimization   opuntia-amyclaea   opuntia-ficus-indica   oregon   organic-carbon   organic-material   ornamental-plant   ornamental-trees   orthotomicus-erosus   orthotomicus-laricis   osmotic-power   ostrya-carpinifolia   ostrya-spp   ostryopsis-spp   otiorhynchus-scaber   out-of-bag   outbreak   outdated-yield-tables   outputs-vs-outcomes   overexploited-fish-stocks   overfitting   overlapping-clustering   overspecialization   overview   overwhelming-uncertainty   oxalis-spp   ozone   p-value   pacific-islands   pacific-northwest-region   paleo-climate   paleo-data   paleobiogeography   paleobiology   paleobotany   paleoclimate-dynamics   paleoclimatic-models   paleoclimatology   paleoecology   paleoenvironment   paleohydrology   paleolithic   paliurus-spina-christi   palynology   pandanus-tectorius   panicum-spp   panthera-pardus   paper   papua-new-guinea   paradox   paragnetina   parallelism   paranthrene-tabaniformis   parasite   parasitism   parasitoid-recruitment   pareto-distribution   pareto-frontier   pareto-principle   parkinsonia-aculeata   parkinsonia-florida   parrotia-persica   parthenolecanium-corni   partial-open-loop-feedback-control   partial-protection   partial-uprooting   participation  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 119 (July 2015), pp. 85-93,


[Highlights] [::] ENM can provide statistical quantitative reconstructions of the species history. [::] New insights suggest the past occurrence of cork oak even in the Levantine. [::] Despite several range oscillations many putative refugia were identified. [::] Past species dynamics are informative for the potential responses to future changes. [Abstract] Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of ...


No-analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st-century predictions by species distribution models

Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, No. 5. (1 May 2012), pp. 1698-1713,


Empirically derived species distributions models (SDMs) are increasingly relied upon to forecast species vulnerabilities to future climate change. However, many of the assumptions of SDMs may be violated when they are used to project species distributions across significant climate change events. In particular, SDM's in theory assume stable fundamental niches, but in practice, they assume stable realized niches. The assumption of a fixed realized niche relative to climate variables remains unlikely for various reasons, particularly if novel future climates open up ...


The European Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) project

Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, Vol. 22, No. 6. (2013), pp. 521-530,
Keywords: data   europe   paleo-climate   paleoecology   pollen   vegetation  


Modern pollen samples provide an invaluable research tool for helping to interpret the quaternary fossil pollen record, allowing investigation of the relationship between pollen as the proxy and the environmental parameters such as vegetation, land-use, and climate that the pollen proxy represents. The European Modern Pollen Database (EMPD) is a new initiative within the European Pollen Database (EPD) to establish a publicly accessible repository of modern (surface sample) pollen data. This new database will complement the EPD, which at present holds ...


The climate of Europe during the Holocene: a gridded pollen-based reconstruction and its multi-proxy evaluation

Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 112 (March 2015), pp. 109-127,


[Highlights] [::] We reconstruct the climate of Europe during the Holocene from pollen data. [::] The data is presented as gridded maps at 1000 year time intervals. [::] The reconstruction is evaluated against those from other proxies/studies. [::] Generally good agreement is shown apart from with Chironomids. [::] Results indicate greater warming in winter than in summer over Northern Europe. [Abstract] We present a new gridded climate reconstruction for Europe for the last 12,000 years based on pollen data. The reconstruction is an update of Davis et ...


Calibrated pollen accumulation rates as a basis for quantitative tree biomass reconstructions

The Holocene, Vol. 19, No. 2. (01 March 2009), pp. 209-220,


Recent investigations show that the pollen accumulation rate (PAR) of the common tree taxa is directly related to the biomass and, by inference, to the population size of the taxa around the study site. Fossil PAR records preserved in lakes provide therefore a potential proxy for quantitative biomass and population reconstructions. We use the high-resolution PAR records obtained from two accurately dated lake sediment cores in Finland to generate quantitative Holocene biomass records for Pinus, Picea and Betula, the most common ...


Atmospheric composition 1 million years ago from blue ice in the Allan Hills, Antarctica

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 22. (02 June 2015), pp. 6887-6891,


[Significance] Bubbles of ancient air trapped in ice cores permit the direct reconstruction of atmospheric composition and allow us to link greenhouse gases and global climate over the last 800 ky. Here, we present new ice core records of atmospheric composition roughly 1 Ma from a shallow ice core drilled in the Allan Hills blue ice area, Antarctica. These records confirm that interglacial CO2 concentrations decreased by 800 ka. They also show that the link between CO2 and Antarctic temperature extended into ...


Placing unprecedented recent fir growth in a European-wide and Holocene-long context

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 12, No. 2. (March 2014), pp. 100-106,


Forest decline played a pivotal role in motivating Europe's political focus on sustainability around 35 years ago. Silver fir (Abies alba) exhibited a particularly severe dieback in the mid-1970s, but disentangling biotic from abiotic drivers remained challenging because both spatial and temporal data were lacking. Here, we analyze 14 136 samples from living trees and historical timbers, together with 356 pollen records, to evaluate recent fir growth from a continent-wide and Holocene-long perspective. Land use and climate change influenced forest growth ...


Formal definition and dating of the GSSP (Global Stratotype Section and Point) for the base of the Holocene using the Greenland NGRIP ice core, and selected auxiliary records

Journal of Quaternary Science, Vol. 24, No. 1. (January 2009), pp. 3-17,


The Greenland ice core from NorthGRIP (NGRIP) contains a proxy climate record across the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary of unprecedented clarity and resolution. Analysis of an array of physical and chemical parameters within the ice enables the base of the Holocene, as reflected in the first signs of climatic warming at the end of the Younger Dryas/Greenland Stadial 1 cold phase, to be located with a high degree of precision. This climatic event is most clearly reflected in an abrupt shift in deuterium ...


The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison

Climate of the Past, Vol. 10, No. 5. (29 October 2014), pp. 1925-1938,


The atmospheric circulation is a key area of uncertainty in climate model simulations of future climate change, especially in mid-latitude regions such as Europe where atmospheric dynamics have a significant role in climate variability. It has been proposed that the mid-Holocene was characterized in Europe by a stronger westerly circulation in winter comparable with a more positive AO/NAO, and a weaker westerly circulation in summer caused by anti-cyclonic blocking near Scandinavia. Model simulations indicate at best only a weakly positive AO/NAO, ...


An Atlas of Past and Present Pollen Maps for Europe, 0-13,000 Years Ago



The present work is a palynological study presenting the synthesis of available pollen-analytical data for the European Late-Glacial and Holocene, and demonstrating the palaeo-ecological value of isopoll mapping of many pollen types at a broad geographical scale. The included maps are concerned with the frequencies of pollen of all the major European trees and shrubs and of many of the important dwarf-shrubs and herbs at 500- or 1000-year intervals. They are shown to provide a number of possible applications in formulating ...


Ice age legacies in the geographical distribution of tree species richness in Europe

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 16, No. 2. (1 March 2007), pp. 234-245,
Keywords: abies-alba   abies-borisii-regis   abies-cephalonica   abies-pinsapo   alnus-cordata   alnus-glutinosa   alnus-incana   betula-pendula   betula-pubescens   carpinus-betulus   castanea-sativa   celtis-australis   climate-change   corylus-colurna   fagus-orientalis   fagus-sylvatica   forest-resources   juglans-regia   juniperus-drupacea   juniperus-excelsa   larix-decidua   laurus-nobilis   ostrya-carpinifolia   paleo-climate   picea-abies   picea-omorika   pinus-brutia   pinus-cembra   pinus-halepensis   pinus-heldreichii   pinus-nigra   pinus-peuce   pinus-pinaster   pinus-pinea   pinus-sylvestris   populus-alba   populus-nigra   populus-tremula   quercus-canariensis   quercus-cerris   quercus-faginea   quercus-frainetto   quercus-ilex   quercus-pedunculiflora   quercus-petraea   quercus-pubescens   quercus-pyrenaica   quercus-robur   quercus-rotundifolia   quercus-sicula   quercus-suber   salix-alba   salix-fragilis   taxus-baccata   ulmus-glabra   ulmus-laevis   ulmus-minor  


Aim  This study uses a high-resolution simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate to assess: (1) whether LGM climate still affects the geographical species richness patterns in the European tree flora and (2) the relative importance of modern and LGM climate as controls of tree species richness in Europe. Location  The parts of Europe that were unglaciated during the LGM. Methods  Atlas data on the distributions of 55 tree species were linked with data on modern and LGM climate and ...


Chloroplast DNA phylogeography of the hornbeam in Europe: Evidence for a bottleneck at the outset of postglacial colonization

Conservation Genetics In Conservation Genetics, Vol. 4, No. 1. (2003), pp. 47-56,


The hornbeam, a shade tolerant tree species,has recolonised Europe very late during theHolocene. In order to investigate whether thispostglacial recolonisation had led to a loss ofchloroplast (cp) DNA diversity, as alreadydescribed for other tree species, andespecially the beech, another late-successionalspecies, we have studied the phylogeography ofthe hornbeam using cpDNA. Three types of cpDNAmarkers were used (PCR-RFLP, microsatellites,sequences) to analyse 36 European populationsof C. betulus and five populations ofC. orientalis. Six haplotypes specific toC. betulus were detected, one of themcompletely fixed in ...


Antarctic sea ice control on ocean circulation in present and glacial climates

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 24. (17 June 2014), pp. 8753-8758,


[Significance] The ocean’s role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide on glacial–interglacial timescales remains an unresolved issue in paleoclimatology. Many apparently independent changes in ocean physics, chemistry, and biology need to be invoked to explain the full signal. Recent understanding of the deep ocean circulation and stratification is used to demonstrate that the major changes invoked in ocean physics are dynamically linked. In particular, the expansion of permanent sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere results in a volume increase of Antarctic-origin abyssal ...


A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 8. (25 February 2014), pp. 2903-2908,


[Significance] This paper describes the production and climatic interpretation of a tree-ring width chronology that is currently the longest, absolutely dated series produced for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and one of the longest in the world. The method of chronology construction enables comparison of variations in precipitation totals over long timescales as well as shorter periods. Precipitation in this region during the last 50 years has been historically high—likely higher than for any equivalent length period in at least 3,500 years, ...


From Past to Future Warming

Science, Vol. 343, No. 6173. (21 February 2014), pp. 844-845,


In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is “extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together” (1). This conclusion was based on an expert assessment drawing on multiple analyses of observed temperature changes. However, substantial uncertainties remain, especially in estimating the human contribution to regional temperature change and ...


Climate change. Atlantic current can shut down for centuries, disrupting climate.

Science (New York, N.Y.), Vol. 343, No. 6173. (21 February 2014), pp. 831-831,


[excerpt] For decades, climate scientists have cast a worried eye at the grand ocean circulation that draws warm southern waters into the North Atlantic. A shutdown due to global warming—a possibility hinted at by some climate models—would not bury Manhattan under a tsunami of ice, as one Hollywood disaster movie had it. But it would unsettle climate around the North Atlantic and beyond. Now, researchers have hard evidence that the real Atlantic circulation did indeed abruptly slow or perhaps even stop ...


Is there memory in precipitation?

Nature Clim. Change, Vol. 3, No. 3. (26 March 2013), pp. 174-175,


[Excerpt] Variability in the total amounts of precipitation is known to affect ecological systems, agricultural yields and human societies among various spatial and temporal scales1. Characterizing and understanding the persistence of wet and dry conditions in the distant past gives new perspectives on contemporary climate change and its causes. Such insights should also help in devising hydro-climatological adaptation and mitigation strategies for the future. The time span of systematic meteorological measurements at the global scale is, however, mainly restricted to the ...


Abrupt Shifts in Horn of Africa Hydroclimate Since the Last Glacial Maximum

Science, Vol. 342, No. 6160. (10 October 2013), pp. 843-846,


The timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the Early Holocene African Humid Period are a subject of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. Here, we provide proxy evidence from the Horn of Africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the African Humid Period in northeast Africa. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate ...


State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 35. (27 August 2013), pp. 14162-14167,


Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find ...


Hot climates, high sensitivity

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 35. (27 August 2013), pp. 14118-14119,


Climate sensitivity is the Holy Grail of climate science; because CO2 is one of the principal control knobs for climate, sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration is of particular interest. This sensitivity is typically characterized by the change in global mean temperature per doubling of concentration. Because the determination of climate sensitivity is plagued by uncertainties about the operation of various feedbacks in the climate system—notably cloud feedback—it is natural to look to the past for clues about how well ...


Bioclimatic and physical characterization of the world’s islands

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 38. (17 September 2013), pp. 15307-15312,


The Earth’s islands harbor a distinct, yet highly threatened, biological and cultural diversity that has been shaped by geographic isolation and unique environments. Island systems are key natural laboratories for testing theory in ecology and evolution. However, despite their potential usefulness for research, a quantitative description of island environments and an environmental classification are still lacking. Here, we prepare a standardized dataset and perform a comprehensive global environmental characterization for 17,883 of the world’s marine islands >1 km2 (∼98% of total ...


Changes in landscape structure in the northwestern Alps over the last 7000 years: lessons from soil charcoal

Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 11, No. 5. (October 2000), pp. 705-714,


Current land-use abandonment and the current rise in temperature in the Alps both suggest that tree limits may change. When it is assumed that the climate of the early mid-Holocene between 8000 and 5000 yr before present is analogous to that of the predicted climate of the late 21st century, palaeo-ecological studies of the early Holocene may provide data for the prediction of the vegetation pattern in a century from now. It appears that mid-Holocene charcoal assemblages can be used to ...


Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 22, No. 3. (1 March 2013), pp. 302-317,


[Aim] Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. [Location]  Europe. [Methods]  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of ...

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