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Selection: with tag niche-modelling [74 articles] 


Competing species leave many potential niches unfilled

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 1, No. 10. (18 September 2017), pp. 1495-1501,


A cornerstone of biology is that coexisting species evolve to occupy separate ecological niches. Classical theory predicts that interspecific competition should lead to all potential niches being occupied, yet observational data suggest that many niches are unfilled. Here we show that theory can be reconciled with observational data by reconceptualizing competition in the Hutchinsonian niche space to distinguish between substitutable and non-substitutable resources. When resources are substitutable (for example, seeds of different size), the components of competition along the niche axes ...


Stay or go - How topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change

Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics (November 2017),


In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options − they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (“stay”), or they can move to track their climatic niches (“go”). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the ...


Using citizen science data to estimate climatic niches and species distributions

Basic and Applied Ecology, Vol. 20 (May 2017), pp. 75-85,


Opportunistic citizen data documenting species observations – i.e. observations collected by citizens in a non-standardized way – is becoming increasingly available. In the absence of scientific observations, this data may be a viable alternative for a number of research questions. Here we test the ability of opportunistic species records to provide predictions of the realized distribution of species and if species attributes can act as indicators of the reliability and completeness of these data. We use data for 39 reptile and ...


Using n-dimensional hypervolumes for species distribution modelling: a response to Qiao et al.

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 26, No. 9. (September 2017), pp. 1071-1075,


Hypervolume approaches are used to quantify functional diversity and quantify environmental niches for species distribution modelling. Recently, Qiao et al. ([1]) criticized our geometrical kernel density estimation (KDE) method for measuring hypervolumes. They used a simulation analysis to argue that the method yields high error rates and makes biased estimates of fundamental niches. Here, we show that (a) KDE output depends in useful ways on dataset size and bias, (b) other species distribution modelling methods make equally stringent but different assumptions ...


Concluding remarks

Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology, Vol. 22 (1 January 1957), pp. 415-427,


This concluding survey of the problems considered in the Symposium naturally falls into three sections. In the first brief section certain of the areas in which there is considerable difference in outlook are discussed with a view to ascertaining the nature of the differences in the points of view of workers in different parts of the field; no aspect of the Symposium has been more important than the reduction of areas of dispute. In the second section a rather detailed analysis ...


Multitrait successional forest dynamics enable diverse competitive coexistence

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 13. (28 March 2017), pp. E2719-E2728,


[Significance] Walking through any forest, one is struck by the variety of plant forms coexisting. Given that all plants compete for the same basic resources, why is there not a single winner? Our study shows that when key ingredients common to all forests are accounted for—including disturbance events, competition for light, and two widely observed trait-based tradeoffs—models of niche differentiation predict forests of considerably greater diversity than was previously thought possible. In particular, our model accurately predicts the proliferation of species occupying ...


Individuals and the variation needed for high species diversity in forest trees

Science, Vol. 327, No. 5969. (25 February 2010), pp. 1129-1132,


In the past, explanations for high species diversity have been sought at the species level. Theory shows that coexistence requires substantial differences between species, but species-level data rarely provide evidence for such differences. Using data from forests in the southeastern United States, I show here that variation evident at the individual level provides for coexistence of large numbers of competitors. Variation among individuals within populations allows species to differ in their distributions of responses to the environment, despite the fact that ...


Resolving the biodiversity paradox

Ecology Letters, Vol. 10, No. 8. (August 2007), pp. 647-659,


The paradox of biodiversity involves three elements, (i) mathematical models predict that species must differ in specific ways in order to coexist as stable ecological communities, (ii) such differences are difficult to identify, yet (iii) there is widespread evidence of stability in natural communities. Debate has centred on two views. The first explanation involves tradeoffs along a small number of axes, including ‘colonization-competition’, resource competition (light, water, nitrogen for plants, including the ‘successional niche’), and life history (e.g. high-light growth vs. ...


Competition theory, evolution, and the concept of an ecological niche

Acta Biotheoretica, Vol. 31, No. 3. (1982), pp. 165-179,


This article examines some of the main tenets of competition theory in light of the theory of evolution and the concept of an ecological niche. The principle of competitive exclusion and the related assumption that communities exist at competitive equilibrium - fundamental parts of many competition theories and models - may be violated if non-equilibrium conditions exist in natural communities or are incorporated into competition models. Furthermore, these two basic tenets of competition theory are not compatible with the theory of ...


Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. Supplement 2. (17 November 2009), pp. 19685-19692,


Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models ...


Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 5, No. 9. (November 2007), pp. 475-482,


No-analog communities (communities that are compositionally unlike any found today) occurred frequently in the past and will develop in the greenhouse world of the future. The well documented no-analog plant communities of late-glacial North America are closely linked to “novel” climates also lacking modern analogs, characterized by high seasonality of temperature. In climate simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 and B1 emission scenarios, novel climates arise by 2100 AD, primarily in tropical and subtropical regions. These future novel ...


Do hypervolumes have holes?

The American Naturalist, Vol. 187, No. 4. (15 February 2016), pp. E93-E105,


Hypervolumes are used widely to conceptualize niches and trait distributions for both species and communities. Some hypervolumes are expected to be convex, with boundaries defined by only upper and lower limits (e.g., fundamental niches), while others are expected to be maximal, with boundaries defined by the limits of available space (e.g., potential niches). However, observed hypervolumes (e.g., realized niches) could also have holes, defined as unoccupied hyperspace representing deviations from these expectations that may indicate unconsidered ecological or evolutionary processes. Detecting ...


A cautionary note on the use of hypervolume kernel density estimators in ecological niche modelling

Global Ecology and Biogeography (August 2016),


Blonder et al. (2014, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 23, 595–609) introduced a new multivariate kernel density estimation (KDE) method to infer Hutchinsonian hypervolumes in the modelling of ecological niches. The authors argued that their KDE method matches or outperforms several methods for estimating hypervolume geometries and for conducting species distribution modelling. Further clarification, however, is appropriate with respect to the assumptions and limitations of KDE as a method for species distribution modelling. Using virtual species and controlled environmental scenarios, we show ...


Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 29, No. 7. (July 2014), pp. 390-397,


[Highlights] [::] Understanding of microclimates may revolutionize climate change biology. [::] Microrefugia will be rare under future climate change. [::] Conservation strategies should focus on managing holdouts and stepping stones. [Abstract] Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a ...


Niches and distributional areas: concepts, methods, and assumptions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. Supplement 2. (17 November 2009), pp. 19644-19650,


Estimating actual and potential areas of distribution of species via ecological niche modeling has become a very active field of research, yet important conceptual issues in this field remain confused. We argue that conceptual clarity is enhanced by adopting restricted definitions of “niche” that enable operational definitions of basic concepts like fundamental, potential, and realized niches and potential and actual distributional areas. We apply these definitions to the question of niche conservatism, addressing what it is that is conserved and showing ...


What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods

Ecological Modelling, Vol. 222, No. 8. (01 April 2011), pp. 1343-1346,


Species distribution model is the term most frequently used in ecological modelling, but other authors used instead predictive habitat distribution model or species-habitat models. A consensual ecological modelling terminology that avoids misunderstandings and takes into account the ecological niche theory does not exist at present. Moreover, different studies differ in the type of niche that is represented by similar distribution models. I propose to use as standard ecological modelling terminology the terms “ecological niche”, “potential niche”, “realized niche” models (for modelling ...


Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1704-1711,


[Aim]  Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. [Location]  The Western Cape of South Africa. [Methods]  We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential ...


Habitat, environment and niche: what are we modelling?

Oikos, Vol. 115, No. 1. (October 2006), pp. 186-191,


The terms 'habitat', 'environment' and 'niche' are used inconsistently, and with some confusion, within the ecological literature on species distribution and abundance modelling. Here I suggest interrelated working definitions of these terms whereby the concept of habitat remains associated with descriptive/correlative analyses of the environments of organisms, while the niche concept is reserved for mechanistic analyses. To model the niche mechanistically, it is necessary to understand the way an organism's morphology, physiology, and especially behaviour, determine the kinds of environment it ...


Poisson point process models solve the “pseudo-absence problem” for presence-only data in ecology

The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 4, No. 3. (September 2010), pp. 1383-1402,


Presence-only data, point locations where a species has been recorded as being present, are often used in modeling the distribution of a species as a function of a set of explanatory variables—whether to map species occurrence, to understand its association with the environment, or to predict its response to environmental change. Currently, ecologists most commonly analyze presence-only data by adding randomly chosen “pseudo-absences” to the data such that it can be analyzed using logistic regression, an approach which has weaknesses in ...


Novel three-step pseudo-absence selection technique for improved species distribution modelling

PLOS ONE, Vol. 8, No. 8. (13 August 2013), e71218,


Pseudo-absence selection for spatial distribution models (SDMs) is the subject of ongoing investigation. Numerous techniques continue to be developed, and reports of their effectiveness vary. Because the quality of presence and absence data is key for acceptable accuracy of correlative SDM predictions, determining an appropriate method to characterise pseudo-absences for SDM’s is vital. The main methods that are currently used to generate pseudo-absence points are: 1) randomly generated pseudo-absence locations from background data; 2) pseudo-absence locations generated within a delimited geographical ...


Addition of multiple limiting resources reduces grassland diversity

Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7618. (24 August 2016), pp. 93-96,


Niche dimensionality provides a general theoretical explanation for biodiversitymore niches, defined by more limiting factors, allow for more ways that species can coexist. Because plant species compete for the same set of limiting resources, theory predicts that addition of a limiting resource eliminates potential trade-offs, reducing the number of species that can coexist. Multiple nutrient limitation of plant production is common and therefore fertilization may reduce diversity by reducing the number or dimensionality of belowground limiting factors. At the same time, ...


Grassland species loss resulting from reduced niche dimension

Nature, Vol. 446, No. 7137. (25 March 2007), pp. 791-793,


Intact ecosystems contain large numbers of competing but coexisting species. Although numerous alternative theories have provided potential explanations for this high biodiversity, there have been few field experiments testing between these theories. In particular, theory predicts that higher diversity of coexisting competitors could result from greater niche dimensionality1, for example larger numbers of limiting resources or factors. Alternatively, diversity could be independent of niche dimensionality because large numbers of species can coexist when limited by just one or two factors if ...


Where, why and how? Explaining the low-temperature range limits of temperate tree species

Journal of Ecology, Vol. 104, No. 4. (July 2016), pp. 1076-1088,


Attempts at explaining range limits of temperate tree species still rest on correlations with climatic data that lack a physiological justification. Here, we present a synthesis of a multidisciplinary project that offers mechanistic explanations. Employing climatology, biogeography, dendrology, population and reproduction biology, stress physiology and phenology, we combine results from in situ elevational (Swiss Alps) and latitudinal (Alps vs. Scandinavia) comparisons, from reciprocal common garden and phytotron studies for eight European broadleaf tree species. [\n] We show that ...


Multiscale computation of solar radiation for predictive vegetation modelling

Annals of Forest Science, Vol. 64, No. 8. (2007), pp. 899-909,


The recent development of large environmental databases allow the analysis of the ecological behaviour of species or communities over large territories. Solar radiation is a fundamental component of ecological processes, but is poorly used at this scale due to the lack of available data. Here we present a GIS program allowing to calculate solar radiation as well locally as at large scale, taking into account both topographical (slope, aspect, altitude, shadowing) and global (cloudiness and latitude) parameters. This model was applied ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 26

(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   nectaroscordum-siculum   nectria-coccinea   negative-emission   negative-emissions   negative-learning   negative-studies   neglecting-non-monetary-criteria   negotiation   neighbourhood-analysis   nematus-melanaspis   nematus-oligospilus   nemoral-climate   neocallitropsis-pancheri   neodiprion-sertifer   neofusicoccum-parvum   neogene   neonicotinoid   nepal   nephelium-lappaceum   nerium-oleander   nested-loops-and-conditional-structures   netherlands   network-representation-capability   networks   neural-networks   neuro-dynamic-programming   neuroterus-spp   new-forested-areas   new-species   new-zealand   niche-limits   niche-model   niche-modelling   niche-sourcing   nickel   nigeria   nitrogen   nitrogen-deposition   nitrogen-fixation   nitrogen-leaching   nitrogen-partitioning   no-analog-pattern   no-analogue   no-free-lunch-theorem   nolina-recurvata   non-array-oriented   non-equilibrium   non-linearity   non-semantic-software-errors   non-stationarity   non-wood-products   nonadditive-measures   nonideal-neurons   nonlinear-correlation   nonlinear-response-to-bioclimatic-predictors   nonmarket-impacts   nonsteady-flame-convection   north-africa   north-america   northern-europe   northern-hemisphere   norway   not-automatic-workflow   notation   notation-as-a-tool-of-thought   nothofagus-cunninghamii   nothofagus-glauca   nothofagus-nervosa   nothofagus-procera   nothofagus-pumilio   nothofagus-spp   notholithocarpus-densiflorus   nothotsuga-spp   nreap-2020   nuclear-disasters   numerical-analysis   numpy   nurse-species   nut-producing-plants   nutrient-gradient   nutrient-recommendations   nutrient-rich-soil   nutrients   nutritional-composition   nyssa-spp   nyssa-sylvatica   oak-decline   oak-hornbeam-forest   oak-shake   object-classification   object-detection   object-oriented-programming   occam-razor   occupancy-vs-detection   ocean-acidification   ocean-circulation   oceans   ochroma-pyramidale   oenothera-spp  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 119 (July 2015), pp. 85-93,


[Highlights] [::] ENM can provide statistical quantitative reconstructions of the species history. [::] New insights suggest the past occurrence of cork oak even in the Levantine. [::] Despite several range oscillations many putative refugia were identified. [::] Past species dynamics are informative for the potential responses to future changes. [Abstract] Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of ...


Know your limits – The need for better data on species responses to soil variables

Basic and Applied Ecology, Vol. 16, No. 7. (November 2015), pp. 563-572,


Species distribution modelling has largely focused on larger spatial scales and the significance of climatic variables for future species ranges. In this study, we argue that more attention should be paid to local processes and the responses of species along soil gradients, as habitat destruction and change in terms of an altered edaphic environment are the main factors behind the decline of many plant species in Central Europe. Examples from deciduous forests and calcareous dry grasslands show that response optima and ...


Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change

Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, No. 9. (1 September 2005), pp. 1504-1513,


Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate-change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for events that have not yet occurred. Resubstituition and data partitioning of present-day data sets are, therefore, commonly used to test the predictive ...


Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests: case studies on large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella) under present and future climate conditions in European forests

EPPO Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 2. (1 August 2015), pp. 273-281,


Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their negative effects could be exacerbated by climate change. This paper illustrates how species distribution modelling integrated with host tree species distribution data can be used to assess forest vulnerability to this threat. Two case studies are used: large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella Deschka & Dimič) both at pan-European level. The proposed approach integrates information from different sources. Occurrence data of insect pests ...

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An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 24. (16 June 2015), pp. 7472-7477,
by J. W. Ferry Slik, Víctor Arroyo-Rodríguez, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Luciana F. Alves, Peter Ashton, Patricia Balvanera, Meredith L. Bastian, Peter J. Bellingham, Eduardo van den Berg, Luis Bernacci, Polyanna da Conceição Bispo, Lilian Blanc, Katrin Böhning-Gaese, Pascal Boeckx, Frans Bongers, Brad Boyle, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Mireille Breuer-Ndoundou Hockemba, Sarayudh Bunyavejchewin, Darley Calderado Leal Matos, Miguel Castillo-Santiago, Eduardo L. M. Catharino, Shauna-Lee Chai, Yukai Chen, Robert K. Colwell, Chazdon L. Robin, Connie Clark, David B. Clark, Deborah A. Clark, Heike Culmsee, Kipiro Damas, Handanakere S. Dattaraja, Gilles Dauby, Priya Davidar, Saara J. DeWalt, Jean-Louis Doucet, Alvaro Duque, Giselda Durigan, Karl A. O. Eichhorn, Pedro V. Eisenlohr, Eduardo Eler, Corneille Ewango, Nina Farwig, Kenneth J. Feeley, Leandro Ferreira, Richard Field, Ary T. de Oliveira Filho, Christine Fletcher, Olle Forshed, Geraldo Franco, Gabriella Fredriksson, Thomas Gillespie, Jean-François Gillet, Giriraj Amarnath, Daniel M. Griffith, James Grogan, Nimal Gunatilleke, David Harris, Rhett Harrison, Andy Hector, Jürgen Homeier, Nobuo Imai, Akira Itoh, Patrick A. Jansen, Carlos A. Joly, Bernardus H. J. de Jong, Kuswata Kartawinata, Elizabeth Kearsley, Daniel L. Kelly, David Kenfack, Michael Kessler, Kanehiro Kitayama, Robert Kooyman, Eileen Larney, Yves Laumonier, Susan Laurance, William F. Laurance, Michael J. Lawes, Ieda Leao do Amaral, Susan G. Letcher, Jeremy Lindsell, Xinghui Lu, Asyraf Mansor, Antti Marjokorpi, Emanuel H. Martin, Henrik Meilby, Felipe P. L. Melo, Daniel J. Metcalfe, Vincent P. Medjibe, Jean P. Metzger, Jerome Millet, D. Mohandass, Juan C. Montero, Márcio de Morisson Valeriano, Badru Mugerwa, Hidetoshi Nagamasu, Reuben Nilus, Susana Ochoa-Gaona, Navendu OnrizalPage, Pia Parolin, Marc Parren, Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy, Ekananda Paudel, Andrea Permana, Maria T. F. Piedade, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Lourens Poorter, Axel D. Poulsen, John Poulsen, Jennifer Powers, Rama C. Prasad, Jean-Philippe Puyravaud, Jean-Claude Razafimahaimodison, Jan Reitsma, João R. dos Santos, Wilson R. Spironello, Hugo Romero-Saltos, Francesco Rovero, Andes H. Rozak, Kalle Ruokolainen, Ervan Rutishauser, Felipe Saiter, Philippe Saner, Braulio A. Santos, Fernanda Santos, Swapan K. Sarker, Manichanh Satdichanh, Christine B. Schmitt, Jochen Schöngart, Mark Schulze, Marcio S. Suganuma, Douglas Sheil, Eduardo da Silva Pinheiro, Plinio Sist, Tariq Stevart, Raman Sukumar, Sun, Terry Sunderand, H. S. Suresh, Eizi Suzuki, Marcelo Tabarelli, Jangwei Tang, Natália Targhetta, Ida Theilade, Duncan W. Thomas, Peguy Tchouto, Johanna Hurtado, Renato Valencia, Johan L. C. H. van Valkenburg, Tran Van Do, Rodolfo Vasquez, Hans Verbeeck, Victor Adekunle, Simone A. Vieira, Campbell O. Webb, Timothy Whitfeld, Serge A. Wich, John Williams, Florian Wittmann, Hannsjoerg Wöll, Xiaobo Yang, Yao, Sandra L. Yap, Tsuyoshi Yoneda, Rakan A. Zahawi, Rahmad Zakaria, Runguo Zang, Rafael L. de Assis, Bruno G. Luize, Eduardo M. Venticinque


[Significance] People are fascinated by the amazing diversity of tropical forests and will be surprised to learn that robust estimates of the number of tropical tree species are lacking. We show that there are at least 40,000, but possibly more than 53,000, tree species in the tropics, in contrast to only 124 across temperate Europe. Almost all tropical tree species are restricted to their respective continents, and the Indo-Pacific region appears to be as species-rich as tropical America, with each of these ...


Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 24, No. 3. (February 2015), pp. 276-292,


Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to inform a range of ecological, biogeographical and conservation applications. However, users often underestimate the strong links between data type, model output and suitability for end-use. We synthesize current knowledge and provide a simple framework that summarizes how interactions between data type and the sampling process (i.e. imperfect detection and sampling bias) determine the quantity that is estimated by a SDM. We then draw upon the published literature and simulations to illustrate and evaluate the ...

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Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling implicate coastal refugia and trans-alpine dispersal of a New Zealand fungus beetle

Molecular Ecology, Vol. 18, No. 24. (December 2009), pp. 5126-5142,


The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) severely restricted forest ecosystems on New Zealand’s South Island, but the extent of LGM distribution for forest species is still poorly understood. We used mitochondrial DNA phylogeography (COI) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify LGM refugia for the mycophagous beetle Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae), a forest edge species widely distributed in the South Island. Both the phylogenetic analyses and the ENM indicate that A. labralis refuged in Kaikoura, Nelson, and along much of the South Island’s ...


Modelling potential distribution of the threatened tree species Juniperus oxycedrus: how to evaluate the predictions of different modelling approaches?

Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 22, No. 4. (2011), pp. 647-659,


Questions: How can predictions of potential species distribution derived from presence-only data and different modelling algorithms be compared and evaluated? Where does suitable habitat for Juniperus oxycedrus exist within the study area and which bioclimatic variables prove to be most important in the prediction of J. oxycedrus potential distribution? Location: Central High Atlas, Morocco. Methods: Ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA), maximum entropy approach (MAXENT) and generalized linear models (GLM) were applied to either presence-only data of J. oxycedrus (ENFA and MAXENT) or presence–absence ...


Habitat suitability modelling and niche theory

Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 45, No. 5. (1 October 2008), pp. 1372-1381,


The concept of the ecological niche relates a set of environmental variables to the fitness of species, while habitat suitability models (HSMs) relate environmental variables to the likelihood of occurrence of the species. In spite of this relationship, the concepts are weakly linked in the literature, and there is a strong need for better integration. [\n] We selectively reviewed the literature for habitat suitability studies that directly addressed four common facets of niche theory: niche characteristics, niche interactions, community-wide processes and ...


Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability

Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 4. (August 2004), pp. 437-448,


Habitat suitability models can be generated using methods requiring information on species presence or species presence and absence. Knowledge of the predictive performance of such methods becomes a critical issue to establish their optimal scope of application for mapping current species distributions under different constraints. Here, we use breeding bird atlas data in Catalonia as a working example and attempt to analyse the relative performance of two methods: the Ecological Niche factor Analysis (ENFA) using presence data only and Generalised Linear ...


Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (1 October 2006), pp. 1677-1688,


Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved ...


Climate change and European forests: what do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 146 (December 2014), pp. 69-83,


[Highlights] [::] Uncertainty is inherent to climate change impact assessments. [::] Extreme events are only weakly represented in many assessments. [::] The range of possible impacts has so far been underestimated in most studies. [::] Some general trends are common to all climate projections. [::] Guidance is needed to interpret state-of-the-art knowledge and give helpful advice. [Abstract] The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a ...


Response of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) to soil and atmospheric water deficits under Mediterranean mountain climate

Annals of Forest Science, Vol. 65, No. 3. (2008), pp. 306-306,


The physiological responses to water deficits of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) were studied under Mediterranean mountain climate. Minimum leaf water potentials were −3.2 MPa for oak and −2.1 MPa for pine, with higher predawn values for pubescent oak. Relative sap flow declined in both species when vapour pressure deficit (D) went above ca. 1.2 kPa, but stomatal control was stronger for pine during the 2003 summer drought. P. sylvestris plant hydraulic conductance on a ...


Species-specific climate sensitivity of tree growth in Central-West Germany

Trees - Structure and Function In Trees, Vol. 23, No. 4. (2009), pp. 729-739,


Growth responses to twentieth century climate variability of the three main European tree species Fagus sylvatica, Quercus petraea, and Pinus sylvestris within two temperate low mountain forest sites were analyzed, with particular emphasis on their dependence upon ecological factors and temporal stability in the obtained relationships. While site conditions in Central (~51°N, 9°E, KEL) and West (50.5°N, 6.5°E, EIF) Germany are similar, annual precipitation totals of ≅700 mm and ≅1,000 mm describe a maritime-continental gradient. Ring-width samples from 228 trees were collected and ...


Reproduction of olive tree habitat suitability for global change impact assessment

Ecological Modelling, Vol. 218, No. 1-2. (October 2008), pp. 95-109,


The olive tree is so typical of the Mediterranean climate that its presence in a territory qualifies the climate of this as Mediterranean. Many clues indicated that in the past olive cultivation limits moved northward or southward in the Northern Hemisphere according to warmer or cooler climate, respectively. This makes the olive tree cultivation area a possible biological indicator of changes in climate and the identification of the climatological parameters that limit its cultivation plays an important role for climate change ...


Why does phenology drive species distribution?

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 365, No. 1555. (12 October 2010), pp. 3149-3160,


Despite the numerous studies which have been conducted during the past decade on species ranges and their relationship to the environment, our understanding of how environmental conditions shape species distribution is still far from complete. Yet, some process-based species distribution models have been able to simulate plants and insects distribution at a global scale. These models strongly rely on the completion of the annual cycle of the species and therefore on their accomplished phenology. In particular, they have shown that the ...


Process-based modeling of species' distributions: What limits temperate tree species' range boundaries?

Ecology, Vol. 88, No. 9. (September 2007), pp. 2280-2291,


Niche-based models are widely used to understand what environmental factors determine species' distributions, but they do not provide a clear framework to study the processes involved in defining species' ranges. Here we used a process-based model to identify these processes and to assess the potential distribution of 17 North American boreal/temperate tree species. Using input of only climate and soil properties, the model reproduced the 17 species' distributions accurately. Our results allowed us to identify the climatic factors as well as ...


Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 30, No. 21-22. (October 2011), pp. 2930-2947,


[Highlights] [::] Species distribution modeling (SDM) offers new possibilities for paleobiology. [::] Key methods issues include predictors, validation, and integration with genetics. [::] Many SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia. [::] SDM-based studies also address megafaunal extinctions and deep-time biogeography. [::] The equilibrium postulate and niche stability constitute important assumptions. [Abstract] Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for ...


Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests under current and future climatic conditions in European forests using host data

In EFSA-EPPO Joint Workshop on Data collection and information sharing in plant health (April 2014), 16


In this study we propose a methodology for assessing forest vulnerability to insect pests at pan-European level. Two insect pests are used for testing and validating a methodology that could be extended to other forest insect pests. Our results highlight the strengths of the approach, facilitate information sharing with decision makers and discuss the limitations, including data availability of forests insect pests. Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their effects could be exacerbated by warmer climatic conditions. ...


Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range

Ecology Letters, Vol. 4, No. 5. (14 August 2001), pp. 500-510,


Global warming is expected to have a major impact on plant distributions, an issue of key importance in biological conservation. However, very few models are able to predict species distribution accurately, although we know species respond individually to climate change. Here we show, using a process-based model (PHENOFIT), that tree species distributions can be predicted precisely if the biological processes of survival and reproductive success only are incorporated as a function of phenology. These predictions showed great predictive power when tested ...


Genetic differences in growth of an invasive tree species

Ecology Letters, Vol. 4, No. 6. (4 November 2001), pp. 514-518,


Invasive plants are often more vigorous in their introduced ranges than in their native ranges. This may reflect an innate superiority of plants from some habitats or an escape from their enemies. Another hypothesis proposes that invasive plants evolve increased competitive ability in their introduced range. We present the results of a 14-year common garden experiment with the Chinese Tallow Tree (Sapium sebiferum) from its native range (Asia), place of introduction to North America (Georgia) and areas colonized a century later ...


Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species

Ecology Letters, Vol. 7, No. 7. (01 June 2004), pp. 565-573,


The relative roles of environment and history in controlling large-scale species distributions are important not only theoretically, but also for forecasting range responses to climatic change. Here, we use atlas data to examine the extent to which 55 tree species fill their climatically determined potential ranges in Europe. Quantifying range filling (R/P) as realized/potential range size ratios using bioclimatic envelope modelling we find mean R/P = 38.3% (±30.3% SD). Many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges, providing support for interpreting ...


Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change

Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, No. 9. (September 2006), pp. 1788-1799,


Estimates of species extinction risk under climate change are generally based on differences in present and future climatically suitable areas. However, the locations of potentially suitable future environments (affecting establishment success), and the degree of climatic suitability in already occupied and new locations (affecting population viability) may be equally important determinants of risk. A species considered to be at low risk because its future distribution is predicted to be large, may actually be at high risk if these areas are out ...


Physiological minimum temperatures for root growth in seven common European broad-leaved tree species

Tree Physiology, Vol. 34, No. 3. (01 March 2014), pp. 302-313,


Temperature is the most important factor driving the cold edge distribution limit of temperate trees. Here, we identified the minimum temperatures for root growth in seven broad-leaved tree species, compared them with the species' natural elevational limits and identified morphological changes in roots produced near their physiological cold limit. Seedlings were exposed to a vertical soil-temperature gradient from 20 to 2 °C along the rooting zone for 18 weeks. In all species, the bulk of roots was produced at temperatures above 5 °C. However, ...


Oak seedling survival and growth along resource gradients in Mediterranean forests: implications for regeneration in current and future environmental scenarios

Oikos, Vol. 117, No. 11. (28 October 2008), pp. 1683-1699,


Understanding seedling performance across resource gradients is crucial for defining the regeneration niche of plant species under current environmental conditions and for predicting potential changes under a global change scenario. A 2-year field experiment was conducted to determine how seedling survival and growth of two evergreen and two deciduous Quercus species vary along gradients of light and soil properties in two Mediterranean forests with contrasting soils and climatic conditions. Half the seedlings were subjected to an irrigation treatment during the first ...

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