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Selection: with tag mitigation [98 articles] 


The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Nature, Vol. 558, No. 7708. (6 June 2018), pp. 41-49,


The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. ...


Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies

Nature Climate Change (13 April 2018),


Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, ...


A sensible climate solution for the boreal forest

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, No. 1. (2 January 2018), pp. 11-12,


Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation–adaption strategy with multiple benefits. ...


Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure

Ecography, Vol. 40, No. 8. (1 August 2017), pp. 913-929,


Ecological data often show temporal, spatial, hierarchical (random effects), or phylogenetic structure. Modern statistical approaches are increasingly accounting for such dependencies. However, when performing cross-validation, these structures are regularly ignored, resulting in serious underestimation of predictive error. One cause for the poor performance of uncorrected (random) cross-validation, noted often by modellers, are dependence structures in the data that persist as dependence structures in model residuals, violating the assumption of independence. Even more concerning, because often overlooked, is that structured data also ...


The interaction of fire, fuels, and climate across Rocky Mountain forests

BioScience, Vol. 54, No. 7. (2004), pp. 661-676,[0661:tioffa];2


Understanding the relative influence of fuels and climate on wildfires across the Rocky Mountains is necessary to predict how fires may respond to a changing climate and to define effective fuel management approaches to controlling wildfire in this increasingly populated region. The idea that decades of fire suppression have promoted unnatural fuel accumulation and subsequent unprecedentedly large, severe wildfires across western forests has been developed primarily from studies of dry ponderosa pine forests. However, this model is being applied uncritically across ...


Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty

Keywords: adaptation   array-of-factors   biodiversity   biodiversity-impacts   burnt-area   climate-change   climate-extremes   communicating-uncertainty   data-transformation-modelling   data-uncertainty   downscaling   droughts   dynamic-system   ecosystem-resilience   emergent-property   euro-cordex   europe   extreme-events   extreme-weather   fire-damage   fire-danger-rating   fire-management   fire-weather-index   forest-fires   forest-management   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-scientific-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   human-behaviour   humidity   ipcc-scenarios   mastrave-modelling-library   mitigation   modelling-uncertainty   no-analog-pattern   peseta-series   precipitation   rcp85   resilience   resilience-vs-resistance   review   robust-modelling   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   scientific-communication   semantic-array-programming   spatial-pattern   species-richness   species-specific-effects   temperature   vegetation-changes   wildfires   wind  


Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate. [\n] For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end ...


  1. de Rigo, D., Bosco, C., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Houston Durrant, T., Barredo, J. I., Strona, G., Caudullo, G., Di Leo, M., Boca, R., 2016. Forest resources in Europe: an integrated perspective on ecosystem services, disturbances and threats. In: San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Houston Durrant, T., Mauri, A. (Eds.), European Atlas of Forest Tree Species. Publ. Off. EU, Luxembourg, pp. e015b50+. .
  2. Alberdi Asensio, I., Baycheva-Merger, T., Bouvet, A., Bozzano,

Empirical models of annual post-fire erosion on mulched and unmulched hillslopes

CATENA, Vol. 163 (April 2018), pp. 276-287,


[Highlights] [::] Measured hillslope erosion with and without mulch following the 2012 High Park Fire. [::] Mulched slopes had fourfold lower erosion rates during the first year after fire. [::] Bare soil was the strongest control on erosion rates. [::] Empirical models predict erosion using bare soil, precipitation, and flow length. [::] Empirical model performance ranged from poor to good for different fires. [Abstract] Erosion is one of the primary land management concerns following wildfire. This study examines controls on post-fire hillslope-scale erosion for the 2012 High Park ...


A wildfire risk management concept based on a social-ecological approach in the European Union: Fire Smart Territory

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 18 (September 2016), pp. 138-153,


The current wildfire policies in European Union countries have not solved the wildfire problem and probably will not be effective in the future, as all the initiatives focus on suppression and minimize the use of fire embedded in the Traditional Ecologic Knowledge of European communities. The traditional fire use as a tool for land management has been handled and almost criminalized by an urban-centric perspective and anti-fire bias. These policies are poorly adapted to, and cannot cope with, the complex nature ...


The role of community policies in defensible space compliance

Forest Policy and Economics, Vol. 11, No. 8. (02 December 2009), pp. 570-578,


Recently enacted federal and state policies provide incentives, including financial assistance, for local jurisdictions to manage risks associated with wildland fire. This has led to an array of local-level policies designed to encourage homeowners to create fire-safe landscapes. This qualitative study collected data from focus group interviews with homeowners in three diverse communities and used the theory of reasoned action to interpret dimensions of local-level wildland fire policies that are associated with homeowner acceptance of or compliance with defensible space guidelines ...


Thinking of wildfire as a natural hazard

Society & Natural Resources, Vol. 17, No. 6. (1 July 2004), pp. 509-516,


Natural hazards theory with its emphasis on understanding the human–hazard interaction has much to offer in better understanding how individuals respond to the wildfire hazard. Ironically, very few natural hazards studies have actually looked at wildfires, despite the insights the field might offer. This report is structured around four interrelated questions that are often heard from individuals involved with wildfire management. Examining these four items through the natural hazards lens can demonstrate just a few of the ways the field can ...


Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 46. (14 November 2017), pp. 12338-12343,


[Significance] We investigate how future population growth is relevant to climate change policy. The answer depends importantly on ethical questions about whether our ultimate goal should be to increase the number of people who are happy or rather to increase the average level of people’s happiness. We calculate the best (optimal) emissions reduction pathway given each of these two different goals that society might have and calculate how much cheaper it would be to avoid dangerous interference with the climate given a ...


Spreading like wildfire

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 11. (November 2017), pp. 755-755,


The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come? [Excerpt] During January and February, Chile experienced what their president Michelle Bachelet called “The greatest forest disaster in our history”. The nation was not adequately equipped to tackle these fires, leading the government to enact a state of emergency and accept ...


Prepare for larger, longer wildfires



Climate change makes land management more urgent than ever, says Kathie Dello. [Excerpt] [...] Scientists must walk a careful line when attributing specific events to climate change. Wildfires are part of a healthy ecosystem and a fact of life in the western United States. Many aspects of a landscape affect them, including past fire suppression, land use and human carelessness. [\n] But climate change increases the threat: fires that do start are larger and last longer. Warmer summer temperatures mean more evaporation. Overall, ...


Natural climate solutions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 44. (31 October 2017), pp. 11645-11650,


[Significance] Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize ...


Climatological risk: wildfires

In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 294-305


[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] There is a vast amount of information on wildfires at local, regional and global scales. However, problems remain at different scales in terms of harmonising or standardising practices for the assessment and management of wildfire risk. [\n] Resilience theory is providing a suitable framework by which to explain abrupt changes in socioecological systems. The importance of community participation and building social capital through collective learning and governance mechanisms has been highlighted as a required basis for building disaster resilience (Aldunce et al., 2015; Aldunce et al., 2016; Montiel and Kraus, 2010; O’Brien et al., ...


  1. SCION, 2009. Fire behavioiur app. .
  2. NFPA, 2016 Firewise Communities Program. .
  3. GOV.UK, n.d. LH1: Management of lowland heathland .
  4. KWFW, 2014. Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA):NERC-funded scoping project with Forestry Commission. .
  5. HM Tresaury, 2013. Orange book: management of risk - principles and concepts. .
  6. Cabinet Office, 2015. National Risk

General introduction and methodological overview

In Ph.D. Thesis: Integrating infra-specific variation of Mediterranean conifers in species distribution models - Applications for vulnerability assessment and conservation (2017), pp. 19-54


[Excerpt] [:Forests ecosystems, climate change and conservation] [...] Despite their importance, we have lost approximately 1.3 % of the total forest area during the last decade, and although deforestation rates are decreasing, they are still high (data for the period 2000-2010 [...]). Nevertheless, fortunately, in some regions, such as Europe, we find an inverse trend with an increasing forest cover [...]. In Europe, 33 % of the total land area (215 million ha) are covered by forests from which more than half ...


  1. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. a., Wang, T., Curtis-McLane, S., 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95–111.
  2. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.H., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and

Well below 2 °C: mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 39. (26 September 2017), pp. 10315-10323,


The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 ...


Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017),


The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...


Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible

Nature (18 September 2017),


Analysis suggests that researchers have underestimated how much carbon humanity can emit before reaching this level of warming. [Excerpt] A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will ...


Effects of network modularity on the spread of perturbation impact in experimental metapopulations

Science, Vol. 357, No. 6347. (14 July 2017), pp. 199-201,


[Modularity limits disturbance effects] The networks that form natural, social, and technological systems are vulnerable to the spreading impacts of perturbations. Theory predicts that networks with a clustered or modular structure—where nodes within a module interact more frequently than they do with nodes in other modules—might contain a perturbation, preventing it from spreading to the entire network. Gilarranz et al. conducted experiments with networked populations of springtail (Folsomia candida) microarthropods to show that modularity limits the impact of a local extinction on ...


Piano regionale di previsione, prevenzione e lotta attiva contro gli incendi boschivi 2011-2013 - Revisione 2013



[Excerpt] [:(Original language): Introduzione e quadro normativo] Il Piano Regionale Antincendi (P.R.AI.) è redatto in conformità a quanto sancito dalla legge quadro nazionale in materia di incendi boschivi (legge n. 353/2000) e alle relative linee guida emanate dal Ministro Delegato per il Coordinamento della Protezione Civile (D.M. 20 dicembre 2001). In attesa di una normativa regionale di recepimento, la materia è disciplinata, anche in Sardegna, dalla citata legge quadro n. 353/2000. [\n] Il Piano è volto a programmare e coordinare l’attività antincendio degli Enti Pubblici e di ...


Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth

Science (25 May 2017), eaal1727,


[The vegetation-climate loop] Just as terrestrial plant biomass is growing in response to increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and other anthropogenic influences, so is climate affected by those variations in vegetation. Forzieri et al. used satellite observations to analyze how changes in leaf area index (LAI), a measure of vegetation density, have influenced the terrestrial energy balance and local climates over the past several decades. An increase in LAI has helped to warm boreal zones through a reduction of surface albedo and ...


At the nexus of fire, water and society

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 371, No. 1696. (23 May 2016), 20150172,


The societal risks of water scarcity and water-quality impairment have received considerable attention, evidenced by recent analyses of these topics by the 2030 Water Resources Group, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum. What are the effects of fire on the predicted water scarcity and declines in water quality? Drinking water supplies for humans, the emphasis of this exploration, are derived from several land cover types, including forests, grasslands and peatlands, which are vulnerable to fire. In the last two ...


Stressing mental health

Science, Vol. 356, No. 6340. (25 May 2017), pp. 878-878,


[Excerpt] [...] Stress is an ingrained and unavoidable aspect of scientific practice. In some unfortunate cases, lab culture can make it worse. In many others, however, it is simply the nature of research. Deadlines, tight funding, and the pressure to “publish or perish” all create chronic stress. There is no avoiding these issues. [...] Personally, I realized that self-imposed deadlines and goals created much of the stress I was feeling, and that tempering my expectations was an easy way to reduce ...


A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 12. (01 December 2016), 124013,


We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement ...


Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe

Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 3. (June 2004), pp. 366-380,


The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible consequences of climate change on a representative sample of forest herbs in Europe. A fuzzy climatic envelope was used to predict the location of suitable climatic conditions under two climatic change scenarios. Expected consequences in terms of lost and gained range size and shift in distribution for 26 forest herbs were estimated. These results were combined in an Index of Predicted Range Change for each species. Finally, the effects of habitat ...


Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 187, No. 1. (2014), pp. 1-20,


In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame ...


Landscape - wildfire interactions in southern Europe: Implications for landscape management

Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 92, No. 10. (October 2011), pp. 2389-2402,


[Abstract] Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with ...


Dam-building threatens Mekong fisheries

Science, Vol. 354, No. 6316. (02 December 2016), pp. 1084-1085,


[Excerpt] Every April, the pa nyawn catfish would make their way up the Mekong River to spawn, crowding through a narrow channel that skirts Khone Falls in southern Laos. Villagers netted the thumb-sized fish by the hundreds of thousands. Then, in 2014, work started on Don Sahong Dam, which straddles the channel. Although the dam won't be completed for another 2 years, construction has already cut off the migration and destroyed the fishing sites, says Zeb Hogan, a biologist with the ...


Introduced or native tree species to maintain forest ecosystem services in a hotter and drier future?

In Introduced tree species in European forests: opportunities and challenges (2016), pp. 236-246


[Excerpt] Climate change might profoundly alter patterns and processes in forest ecosystems that have consequences on the biogeochemical cycling, biodiversity and productivity (e.g. Lindner et al. 2014). Temperature- and drought-related changes have been identified as important triggers of forest decline and vegetation shifts worldwide (Allen et al. 2010). In Europe, several native tree species such as Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) are showing increased sensitivities to recent increases in temperature and extreme droughts resulting ...


  1. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Gonzales, P., Hogg, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Kitzberger, T., Lim, J.-H., Castro, J., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 660–684. .
  2. Allen, C.D., Breshears, D.D., McDowell, N.G., 2015. On underestimation of global vulnerability

Health impacts of wildfires

PLoS Currents Disasters (2012), 1881,


[Introduction] Wildfires are common globally. Although there has been considerable work done on the health effects of wildfires in countries such as the USA where they occur frequently there has been relatively little work to investigate health effects in the United Kingdom. Climate change may increase the risk of increasing wildfire frequency, therefore there is an urgent need to further understand the health effects and public awareness of wildfires. This study was designed to review current evidence about the health effects of ...


Adapting to climate change

In Climate Change and United States Forests, Vol. 57 (2014), pp. 183-222,


Federal agencies have led the development of adaptation principles and tools in forest ecosystems over the past decade. Successful adaptation efforts generally require organizations to: (1) develop science-management partnerships, (2) provide education on climate change science, (3) provide a toolkit of methods and processes for vulnerability assessment and adaptation, (4) use multiple models to generate projections of climate change effects, (5) incorporate risk and uncertainty, (6) integrate with multiple management objectives, (7) prioritize no-regrets decision making, (8) support flexibility and adaptive ...


Welcome to postnormal times

Futures, Vol. 42, No. 5. (20 June 2010), pp. 435-444,


All that was ‘normal’ has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks ...


Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 7. (18 May 2015), pp. 669-672,


Nature Climate Change | Letter Print Share/bookmark Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming Nathan G. McDowell & Craig D. Allen Affiliations Contributions Corresponding author Nature Climate Change 5, 669–672 (2015) Received 23 July 2014 Accepted 07 April ...


The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1. (2 December 2012), pp. 4-6,


The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term. ...


Changing the resilience paradigm

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 6. (28 May 2014), pp. 407-409,


Resilience management goes beyond risk management to address the complexities of large integrated systems and the uncertainty of future threats, especially those associated with climate change. [Excerpt] In summary, risk analysis and risk management based on probabilistic quantitative methods have been widely adopted and have been useful for dealing with foreseeable and calculable stress situations. Benchmarks and thresholds for risk analysis are built into the regulations and policies of organizations and nations; however, this approach is no longer sufficient to address the ...


Repression of competition and the evolution of cooperation

Evolution, Vol. 57, No. 4. (April 2003), pp. 693-705,


Repression of competition within groups joins kin selection as the second major force in the history of life shaping the evolution of cooperation. When opportunities for competition against neighbors are limited within groups, individuals can increase their own success only by enhancing the efficiency and productivity of their group. Thus, characters that repress competition within groups promote cooperation and enhance group success. Leigh first expressed this idea in the context of fair meiosis, in which each chromosome has an equal chance ...


How chimpanzees cooperate in a competitive world

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 36. (06 September 2016), pp. 10215-10220,


[Significance] Competitive tendencies may make it hard for members of a group to cooperate with each other. Humans use many different “enforcement” strategies to keep competition in check and favor cooperation. To test whether one of our closest relatives uses similar strategies, we gave a group of chimpanzees a cooperative problem that required joint action by two or three individuals. The open-group set-up allowed the chimpanzees a choice between cooperation and competitive behavior like freeloading. The chimpanzees used a combination of partner ...


A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2016

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 31, No. 1. (January 2016), pp. 44-53,


This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic ...


Curbing an onslaught of 2 billion cars



Nature could soon be imperiled by twice as many vehicles and enough new roads to encircle the planet more than 600 times. [Excerpt] By 2010, our planet had reached a remarkable milestone: one billion cars—or, to be precise, one billion motorized vehicles, including cars, trucks, buses, and motorcycles but excluding off-road vehicles such as tractors and bulldozers. Of course, the overwhelming majority of these vehicles are powered by fossil fuels. And if that figure isn’t troubling enough, by 2030, it’s projected that ...


GECO 2015 - Global energy and climate outlook: road to Paris

Vol. EUR 27239 EN (2015),


This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020" in the EU's Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, ...


  1. Arezki, R., Blanchard, O., 2014. Seven Questions about the Recent Oil Price Slump. .
  2. AR5 database, 2015. IPCC Assessment Report 5 database. .
  3. Assunção, J., Gandour, C., Rocha, R., 2015. Deforestation slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: prices or policies?. Environment and Development Economics, available on CJO2015. .
  4. BGR (German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) 2013. Energy Study 2013.

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 25

(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   miocene   mires   miridae   missing-full-author-list   mistletoe   misuse-of-modelling-tools-by-nonexperts   mitigation   mitochondrial-dna   mixed-forest   mixed-models   mixed-species-stand   mobile-communication   mobility   mode   model   model-assessment   model-comparison   model-drift   modelling   modelling-uncertainty   modelling-vs-management   moderate-floods   modern-analogue   modis   modularization   moist-convection   molinia-caerulea   molluscs   monetarisation   mongolia   monitoring   monochamus-galloprovincialis   monochamus-spp   monography   monoterpenes   monsoon   montane-belt   monte-carlo   monte-carlo-trajectory   monumental-trees   moorland   mordwilkoja-vagabundus   morinda-citrifolia   moringa-oleifera   morocco   morphological-adaptations   morphological-traits   morphology   mortality   morus-alba   morus-nigra   morus-spp   motor-vehicles   mountainous-areas   mozambique   muddy-floods   multi-criteria-decision-analysis   multi-objective-planning   multi-scale   multi-stakeholder-decision-making   multiauthor   multiple-adaptive-regression-splines   multiplicative-structure   multiplicity   mushrooms   mutualism   mycorrhizal-fungi   mycosphaerella-dearnessii   mycosphaerella-pini   myopic-heuristics   myrica-cerifera   myrica-gale   myricaria-germanica   myristica-fragrans   myrrhoides-nodosa   myrtus-communis   myths   mytilus-edulis   myzocallis-coryli   nanoparticles   nasa   natech   national-fire-danger-rating-system   native-vegetation   natura-2000   natural-disaster   natural-disasters   natural-disturbance   natural-ecosystems   natural-hazard-triggering-technological-disasters   natural-hazards   natural-loss   natural-product-herbicides   natural-resources-interactions   naturalised-species   nauclea-diderichii   ndvi   neanderthals   near-surface-flowpaths  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Climate change impacts on global food security

Science, Vol. 341, No. 6145. (2013), pp. 508-513,


Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable ...


Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security

Science, Vol. 335, No. 6065. (2012), pp. 183-189,


Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 ...


Working with four villages to end soil erosion in an entire river basin



[Excerpt] The entire catchment area of a river and its tributaries is a large, complex, interaction of ecosystems. In Albania, the Drini River basin is a Key Biodiversity Area that provides multiple services to the inhabitants of northern Albania. But currently rain is washing bare soil away into the river, and all of the beneficial ecosystem services along with it – like nutrients to provide crop fertility, water storage by forests, fresh water filtration and flood protection. [Soil erosion is a big problem ...


Reframing ecosystem management in the era of climate change: issues and knowledge from forests

Biological Conservation, Vol. 165 (September 2013), pp. 115-127,


We discuss “ecosystem management (EM)” to face contemporary climate change issues. EM focuses on sustaining ecosystems to meet both ecological and human needs. EM plans have been largely developed independent of concerns about climate change. However, EM is potentially effective for climate change mitigation and adaptation. We provide the principle guidelines based on EM to adaptively tackle the issues. Climate change is one of the significant concerns in land and resource management, creating an urgent need to build social–ecological capacity to ...


Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty

Ecological Applications, Vol. 17, No. 8. (December 2007), pp. 2145-2151,


We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches ...


The true loss caused by biodiversity offsets

Biological Conservation, Vol. 192 (December 2015), pp. 552-559,


Biodiversity offsets aim to achieve a “no-net-loss” of biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services due to development. The “no-net-less” objective assumes that the multi-dimensional values of biodiversity in complex ecosystems can be isolated from their spatial, evolutionary, historical, social, and moral context. We examine the irreplaceability of ecosystems, the limits of restoration, and the environmental values that claim to be compensated through ecosystem restoration. We discuss multiple ecological, instrumental, and non-instrumental values of ecosystems that should be considered in offsetting calculations. Considering ...


Planted forests and water in perspective

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 251, No. 1-2. (October 2007), pp. 1-9,


Afforestation is increasingly considered as a land use activity that threatens water resources security. At the same time, it is advocated for a wide range of other water-related benefits. We review the contributions to this special issue and the wider literature, intended as a contribution towards a framework for predicting the impact on water resources and other water-related issues of afforestation in agricultural landscapes. Current evidence suggests that afforestation will typically reduce local average water yield as well as low flows. ...


Soil characteristics and landcover relationships on soil hydraulic conductivity at a hillslope scale: a view towards local flood management

Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 497 (August 2013), pp. 208-222,


We evaluate woodland/grassland cover and soil types to reduce local flooding. We measured field saturated hydraulic conductivity under grassland and woodland. Established broadleaf woodland had significantly higher infiltration rates than grassland. 1 in 10 year storm events would cause infiltration-excess overland flow on grassland. We suggest deciduous shelterbelts upslope could locally reduce overland flow. There are surprisingly few studies in humid temperate forests which provide reliable evidence that soil permeability is enhanced under forests. This work addresses this research gap through a ...

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