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Selection: with tag migration-pattern [6 articles] 


General introduction and methodological overview

In Ph.D. Thesis: Integrating infra-specific variation of Mediterranean conifers in species distribution models - Applications for vulnerability assessment and conservation (2017), pp. 19-54


[Excerpt: Forests ecosystems, climate change and conservation] [...] Despite their importance, we have lost approximately 1.3 % of the total forest area during the last decade, and although deforestation rates are decreasing, they are still high (data for the period 2000-2010 [...]). Nevertheless, fortunately, in some regions, such as Europe, we find an inverse trend with an increasing forest cover [...]. In Europe, 33 % of the total land area (215 million ha) are covered by forests from which more than ...


  1. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. a., Wang, T., Curtis-McLane, S., 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95–111.
  2. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.H., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and

Fine-grain modeling of species’ response to climate change: holdouts, stepping-stones, and microrefugia

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 29, No. 7. (July 2014), pp. 390-397,


[Highlights] [::] Understanding of microclimates may revolutionize climate change biology. [::] Microrefugia will be rare under future climate change. [::] Conservation strategies should focus on managing holdouts and stepping stones. [Abstract] Microclimates have played a critical role in past species range shifts, suggesting that they could be important in biological response to future change. Terms are needed to discuss these future effects. We propose that populations occupying microclimates be referred to as holdouts, stepping stones and microrefugia. A holdout is a population that persists in a ...


Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

Evolutionary Applications, Vol. 1, No. 1. (1 February 2008), pp. 95-111,


Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small ...


Range expansions transition from pulled to pushed waves as growth becomes more cooperative in an experimental microbial population

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 25. (21 June 2016), pp. 6922-6927,


[Significance] Species undergo range shifts in response to changing climate or following an introduction to a new environment. Invasions often incur significant economic cost and threaten biodiversity. Ecological theory predicts two distinct types of expansion waves, pulled and pushed, depending on the degree of cooperativity in the population. Although pulled and pushed invasions differ dramatically in how population-level properties such as the expansion rate depend on the organism-level properties such as rates of growth and dispersal, these theoretical predictions have not been ...


Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 23. (07 June 2016), pp. 6460-6465,


[Significance] Projected populations to the end of this century are an important factor in many policy decisions. Population forecasts become less reliable as we look farther into the future, suggesting a probabilistic approach to convey uncertainty. Migration projections have been largely deterministic until now, even in probabilistic population projections. Deterministic migration projections neglect a substantial source of population uncertainty. We incorporate a probabilistic migration model with probabilistic models of fertility and mortality to produce probabilistic population projections for all countries until 2100. ...


Global human capital: integrating education and population

Science, Vol. 333, No. 6042. (28 July 2011), pp. 587-592,


Almost universally, women with higher levels of education have fewer children. Better education is associated with lower mortality, better health, and different migration patterns. Hence, the global population outlook depends greatly on further progress in education, particularly of young women. By 2050, the highest and lowest education scenarios—assuming identical education-specific fertility rates—result in world population sizes of 8.9 and 10.0 billion, respectively. Better education also matters for human development, including health, economic growth, and democracy. Existing methods of multi-state demography can ...

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