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Selection: with tag meteorology [25 articles] 


Medium-range, monthly, and seasonal prediction for Europe and the use of forecast information

Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 23. (December 2006), pp. 6025-6046,


Operational probabilistic (ensemble) forecasts made at ECMWF during the European summer heat wave of 2003 indicate significant skill on medium (3–10 day) and monthly (10–30 day) time scales. A more general “unified” analysis of many medium-range, monthly, and seasonal forecasts confirms a high degree of probabilistic forecast skill for European temperatures over the first month. The unified analysis also identifies seasonal predictability for Europe, which is not yet realized in seasonal forecasts. Interestingly, the initial atmospheric state appears to be important ...


A lightning parameterization for the ECMWF integrated forecasting system

Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 144, No. 9. (September 2016), pp. 3057-3075,
Keywords: ecmwf   forecast   lightning   meteorology  


A new parameterization able to diagnose lightning flash densities is proposed for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System, including its tangent-linear and adjoint versions. Total lightning densities are expressed as a function of hydrometeors contents, convective available potential energy, and cloud-base height output by the convective parameterization. Potential future applications range from the computation of NOx emissions by lightning in atmospheric chemistry models, severe convection forecasting, and data assimilation. In this study, a decade-long experiment is used to calibrate the simulated global ...


How much does weather control fire size and intensity in the Mediterranean region?

Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 33, No. 7. (30 July 2015), pp. 931-939,


This study investigates the synoptic conditions favorable to wildfires in the Mediterranean region, in terms of fire intensity and burnt area. As reported in the literature, Mediterranean large wildfires are associated with a blocking situation. However, this study shows the existence of two types of wildfires controlled by the blocking high intensity: (1) fast build-up of a weak blocking produces intense wildfires associated with strong winds which allow propagation over long distances; (2) longer build-up of strong blocking situation produces less ...


Size of wildfires in the Euro-Mediterranean region: observations and theoretical analysis

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 15, No. 6. (23 June 2015), pp. 1331-1341,


MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite observations of fire size and ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis are used to derive a relationship between burnt area and wind speed over the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe. The largest wildfire size does not show a strong response with respect to wind speed in Eastern Europe. In the Mediterranean, as intuitively expected, the burnt area associated with the largest wildfires is an increasing function of wind speed for moderate temperature anomalies. In situations of severe heatwaves, ...


Meteorological risk: extra-tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones and convective storms

In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 246-256


[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] [::Partnership] Collaboration between forecast providers and end users in real time is essential during DRM, since the interpretation of the available information, the uncertainty associated with it and how this changes as new information becomes available should be made in consultation with qualified meteorologists and National Meteorological Services in particular. Information sharing, particularly observational, impact and warning data across national boundaries in real time, is of key importance. Improvements in forecasts will in part be driven by the interaction between fundamental atmosphere and ocean science with operational forecasting, so continued collaboration between forecasting centres and universities and ...


  1. AIR Worldwide, 2015. Preparing for Europe's Winter Storm Season with a Look Back at Niklas and Kyrill. .
  2. Anderson, G., Klugmann, D., 2014. A European lightning density analysis using 5 years of ATDnet data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14(4), 815-829.
  3. Antonescu, B., Schultz, D.M., Lomas, F., Kühne, T., 2016. Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the observational datasets. Monthly Weather Review.
  4. Bauer, P., Thorpe,

The Australian flammability monitoring system

In Brisbane 2016: annual conference (2016)


Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is one of the primary variables affecting bushfire flammability. We have developed the first Australia-wide flammability monitoring system for operational prediction of LFMC and flammability using satellite data. [Excerpt: Conclusion and future work] [::] We developed the prototype of the first Australia-wide Flammability Monitoring System for operational prediction of LFMC and flammability using satellite observations. [::] LFMC is not the only variable that is related to fire occurrence, and therefore the importance of other factors (e.g. fire weather and ...


The potential predictability of fire danger provided by numerical weather prediction

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 55, No. 11. (5 August 2016), pp. 2469-2491,


A global fire danger rating system driven by atmospheric model forcing has been developed with the aim of providing early warning information to civil protection authorities. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the US Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian forest service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (MARK-5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting ...


Stability of atmospheric flow and low-level jets influencing forest fire behavior - An EFFIS report

Vol. EUR 27362 EN (2015),


During the past years, there have been a considerable number of occasions that a forest fire burns with such strong intensity that seems far out of proportion to apparent burning conditions. This proved to be the case for the Sweden fire "blow-up" that took place during 4 August 2014 between Sala and Surahammar municipalities. The fire broke out after an unusual spell of hot, dry summer weather in northern Europe and proved to be the Sweden's largest wildfire in 40 years ...


  1. Anderson, H.E., 1982. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behaviors. General Technical Report INT - 122. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. .
  2. Andersson, E., Fisher, M., Hólm, E., Isaksen, L., Radnóti, G., Trémolet, Y., 2005. Will the 4D-Var approach be defeated by nonlinearity? ECMWF Tech Memo 479. .
  3. Bally, J., 1995. The Haines Index as a predictor of fire activity in

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 24

(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   mass-extinction   mass-spectrometry   mast-fruiting   mastixioideae   mastrave-modelling-library   mathematical-reasoning   mathematics   mating-pattern   matlab   matsucoccus-feytaudi   mattesia-schwenkei   mature-forest   mauritia-flexuosa   max-temperature   maxent   maximum-habitat-suitability   maxwell-quantity-notation   mcarthur-mark-5   mcd43   mcd43a   mcpfe   meadow   meadows   meat-consumption   mechanical-testing   mechanics   mechanistic-approach   medetera-signaticornis   median   mediawiki   medicago-arborea   medical-herb   medicinal-plants   mediterranean-pines   mediterranean-region   medium-resolution   megastigmus-brevicaudis   megastigmus-spp   megastigmus-wachtli   mekong-river-basin   melaleuca-quinquenervia   melampsora   melampsora-larici-populina   melanophila-picta   meles-meles   melia-azedarach   melia-spp   melting-acceleration   memory   mercurialis-perennis   mercury   merit-dem   mersenne-twister   mesoamerica   mesophilous   mesophytic-species   mespilus-germanica   messerschmidia-argentea   meta-analysis   metacommunities   metadata   metadata-mining   metaecosystems   metaknowledge   metal-pollution   metamaterial   metapopulations   metaprogramming   metasequoia-glyptostroboides   meteorology   methane   methods   metopium-toxiferum   metrology   metrosideros-polymorpha   mexico   mic   micology   microalgae   microclimate   micropterus-salmoides   microsatellite   microsite   microsoft-academic-search   mid-holocene   middle-east   migration   migration-history   migration-pattern   migration-rate   milicia-excelsa   millennium-ecosystem-assessment   milliferous-plant   milvus-migrans   milvus-milvus   min-max   min-temperature   mineralization   minimal-predicted-area  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Weather in the Canadian forest fire danger rating system - A user guide to national standards and practices

No. BC-X-177. (1978)


Weather elements affecting the calculation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) are described. How to choose an adequate weather station site for fire danger rating observations, how to expose each weather instrument correctly, and the consequences of errors in weather data on the FWI are outlined. Weather instrument standards of accuracy and required precision in taking fire weather readings are described. Adjustment procedures are provided to users for such things as anemometers exposed in clearings too small to give representative ...


NASA’s modern era retrospective-analysis for research and applications: integrating Earth observations

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 1, No. 1-4. (2008), 82367


[Excerpt] To gain the benefit of the many types of meteorological observations for weather forecasts, the data are analyzed (or assimilated) to provide initial conditions for numerical weather forecast models. The resulting analyses are the merger of model and many types of observed data. Weather forecasts greatly benefitted from the assimilation of satellite remotely sensed observations. After years of these analyses had been produced, researchers hoped they would yield insight on many aspects of the Earth’s climate. For example, a consistent ...


Large storm effects on total soil erosion

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol. 46, No. 1. (01 January 1991), pp. 75-78


Soil erosion measurements on small upland watersheds totaling 229 watershed-years show that most of the total erosion occurring over a long-term period of record comes from a few large storms. Nine 1-ha (2.5-acre) watersheds containing residual soils with silt loam surfaces on B and C slopes were farmed under a corn-wheat-meadow-meadow rotation with moldboard plowing, disking, and harrowing in April of the corn years for seedbed preparation and cultivation for weed control. After corn harvest, stalks were disked prior to winter ...


Use of Meteorological data sets at European level for input to the PESERA Grid Model

No. QLKS-CT-1999-01323. (2003)


[Objectives] This document analyses some problems associated with the use of meteorological data sets prepared for use at European level for environmental assessments. The data – rainfall, temperature, radiation and evapotranspiration – were prepared at 1km x 1km resolution for input to the PESERA grid model for estimating soil loss by erosion. Soil (CEC, 1985) and land use (CORINE) data have also been prepared at the same resolution. ...


The Operational Global Icosahedral–Hexagonal Gridpoint Model GME: Description and High-Resolution Tests

Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 130, No. 2. (1 February 2002), pp. 319-338,<0319:togihg>;2


Abstract The German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has recently developed a new operational global numerical weather prediction model, named GME, based on an almost uniform icosahedral?hexagonal grid. The GME gridpoint approach avoids the disadvantages of spectral techniques as well as the pole problem in latitude?longitude grids and provides a data structure extremely well suited to high efficiency on distributed memory parallel computers. The formulation of the discrete operators for this grid is described and evaluations that demonstrate their second-order accuracy are ...


The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System)

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 133, No. 624. (April 2007), pp. 681-695,
Keywords: europe   forecast   meteorology  


The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VAREPS) is a system designed to provide skilful predictions of small-scale, severe-weather events in the early forecast range, and accurate large-scale forecast guidance in the extended forecast range (say beyond forecast day 7). In this work, first the rationale behind VAREPS is presented, and then the performance of VAREPS with a truncation at forecast day 7, i.e. TL399L40(d0–7) and TL255L40(d7–15), is discussed and compared to the performance of ...


On the distributions of seasonal river flows: Lognormal or power law?

Water Resour. Res., Vol. 48, No. 5. (1 May 2012), pp. W05536-n/a,


Distributional analysis of river discharge time series is an important task in many areas of hydrological engineering, including optimal design of water storage and drainage networks, management of extreme events, risk assessment for water supply, and environmental flow management, among many others. Having diverging moments, heavy-tailed power law distributions have attracted widespread attention, especially for the modeling of the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts. However, straightforward distributional analysis does not connect well with the complicated dynamics of ...


Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 30. (23 July 2013), pp. 12219-12224,


A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that ...


Dynamic data driven ensemble for wildfire behaviour assessment: a case study

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 413 (2013), pp. 11-22,


Wildfire information has long been collected in Europe, with particular focus on forest fires. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of the European Commission complements and harmonises the information collected by member countries and covers the forest fire management cycle. This latter ranges from forest fire preparedness to post-fire impact analysis. However, predicting and simulating fire event dynamics requires the integrated modelling of several sources of uncertainty. Here we present a case study of a novel conceptualization based on a Semantic ...


The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation

Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., Vol. 122, No. 529. (1 January 1996), pp. 73-119,
Keywords: ensemble   forecast   mathematics   meteorology  


The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each ensemble comprises 32 10-day forecasts starting from initial conditions in which dynamically defined perturbations have been added to the operational analysis. The perturbations are constructed from singular vectors of a time-evolution operator linearized around the short-range-forecast trajectory. These singular vectors approximately determine the most unstable phase-space directions in the early part of the forecast period, and are estimated using ...


Description of the indices implemented in EUDIC software for the European meteorological forest fire risk mapping

(May 2000)


EUDIC is a software developed in the frame of a collaboration between the Department AGROSELVITER of the University of Turin and the Space Application Institute of the Joint Research Centre. The software is aimed to compute daily a number of meteorological fire danger indices in Europe, using as input either measured meteorological data from the MARS database or forecasted weather data from MeteoFrance. The output are raster maps of the European Mediterranean basin or other portions of the European territory, ...


A data-driven model for large wildfire behaviour prediction in Europe

Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 18 (2013), pp. 1861-1870,


The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) has been established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment (DG ENV) of the European Commission (EC) in close collaboration with the Member States and neighbour countries. EFFIS is intended as complementary system to national and regional systems in the countries, providing harmonised information required for international collaboration on forest fire prevention and fighting and in cases of trans-boundary fire events. However, one missing component in the system is ...


Toward a monitoring and forecasting system for atmospheric composition: The GEMS project

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society In Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, No. 8. (1 August 2008), pp. 1147-1164,


Abstract The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a comprehensive monitoring and forecasting system for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, aerosol, and regional air quality. The project is funded by the European Commission as part of the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) framework. GEMS has extended the data assimilation system of the European ...


The Météo-France NWP system: description, recent changes and plans

(April 2010)
Keywords: meteorology   modelling  

The concept of fire environment

Fire Management today, Vol. 64, No. 1. (2004), pp. 49-52


Fire environment is the complex of fuel, topographic, and airmass factors that influences or modifies the inception, growth, and behavior of fire. ...


Parametric study of an eruptive fire behaviour model

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 15, No. 2. (2006), 169,


The application of a mathematical model to predict dynamic fire behaviour with different types of fuels is explored. This model predicts the occurrence of eruptive fire behaviour that is observed mainly in steep slopes and canyons. The practical range of the parameters involved in the model is estimated and their average values for four main fuel types are presented. The predicted differences in dynamic fire behaviour between light and heavy fuels are justified by observations. Given the importance of time as ...

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Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
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INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.