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Selection: with tag ipcc-scenarios [15 articles] 

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 50. (13 December 2016), pp. 14294-14299, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1611386113

Abstract

[Significance] The future of world population growth matters for future human well-being and interactions with the natural environment. We show the extent to which world population growth could be reduced by fully implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) whose health and education targets have direct and indirect consequences on future mortality and fertility trends. Although this assessment is consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change context, it is inconsistent with the prediction range of ...

 

Special report on emissions scenarios

  
(2000)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations] In summary, the SRES scenarios [SRES is for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] lead to the following findings: [::] Alternative combinations of driving forces can lead to similar levels and structure of energy and land-use patterns, as illustrated by different scenarios and groups. Hence, even for a given scenario outcome (e.g., in terms of GHG emissions) there are alternative combinations of driving forces and pathways that could lead to that outcome. For instance, significant global changes could ...

 

RCP 8.5 - A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 33-57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y

Abstract

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE ...

 

Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts and response strategies

  
(2008)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusion] This section summarizes the ways in which the parallel process for development of climate change scenarios described in this report relates to the six general questions introduced in Section I. [::1. Can new integrated scenarios that meet user needs be produced with the available resources and completed in time for consideration in a possible future IPCC assessment?] Earlier approaches to the use of scenarios in climate change science have followed the sequence of development of a complete set of emissions scenarios, development of the corresponding ...

 

Projections of climate change indices of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of bias-adjusted high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 121, No. 10. (27 May 2016), pp. 2015JD024411-5511, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024411

Abstract

Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate ...

 

Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation

  
Energy Economics, Vol. 31 (21 December 2009), pp. S152-S162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.010

Abstract

In this article we explore several scenarios that aim at meeting radiative forcing targets at 4.5, 3.7, 2.9 and 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100. These scenarios are run under the assumption of participation of all countries by 2012 in climate policy and under the assumption of a significant delay in the participation of Russia and non-Annex I countries (up to 2030 and 2050). The study finds the lowest radiative forcing categories to be feasible under full participation, certainly if overshoot of ...

 

Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

  
Climatic Change, Vol. 122, No. 1-2. (2014), pp. 185-199, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z

Abstract

We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System—recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827–840, 2013)—we ...

 

Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

  
Nature, Vol. 529, No. 7587. (20 January 2016), pp. 477-483, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542

Abstract

Targets for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide are related to regional changes in climate extremes rather than to changes in global mean temperature, in order to convey their urgency better to individual countries. ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 18

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: inrmm-list-of-tags   intsia-palembanica   invariance   invasion   invasive-pathogens   invasive-plant   invasive-species   inventories   invertebrates   invisible-hand-myth   ipcc   ipcc-scenarios   ipcc-tier-1   ips-acuminatus   ips-cembrae   ips-confusus   ips-duplicatus   ips-paraconfusus   ips-pini   ips-sexdentatus   ips-spp   ips-subelongatus   ips-typographus   iran   iraq   ireland   iron   irreversibility   irvingia-gabonensis   islands   iso   isochrone   isoenzyme   isolation   isolation-by-distance   isolation-frequency   isoprene   isozyme-analysis   isozyme-variation   isozymes   israel   italian-alps   italy   iucn   iucn-critically-endangered-cr   iucn-data-deficient-dd   iucn-endangered-en   iucn-extinct-in-the-wild-ew   iucn-least-concern-lc   iucn-lower-risk-least-concern-lrlc   iucn-lower-risk-near-threatened-lrnt   iucn-near-threatened-nt   iucn-vulnerable-vu   iverson-bracket   janus-abbreviatus   japan   jatropha-curcas   joint-research-centre   journal-ranking   jrc   jubaea-chilensis   juglans-jamaicensis   juglans-mandshurica   juglans-nigra   juglans-regia   juglans-spp   juniper-wood   juniperus-californica   juniperus-cedrus   juniperus-communis   juniperus-deppeana   juniperus-drupacea   juniperus-excelsa   juniperus-foetidissima   juniperus-monosperma   juniperus-occidentalis   juniperus-osteosperma   juniperus-oxycedrus   juniperus-phoenicea   juniperus-rigida   juniperus-silicicola   juniperus-spp   juniperus-thurifera   kalmia-latifolia   kalopanax-septemlobus   kappa   kazdaglari   kenya   kk10   knn-distance   knowledge-engineering   knowledge-freedom   knowledge-integration   knowledge-management   kolkwitzia-amabilis   koompassia-excelsa   kosovo   la-nina   laburnum-alpinum   laburnum-anagyroides  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 5-31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Abstract

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and ...

 

Climate impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project

  
edited by J. C. Ciscar

Abstract

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison ...

References

  1. Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., Wei, T., 2012. Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in European Economies. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 959-968. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.005 .
  2. Alley, R.B., Whillans, I.M., 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254 (5034), 959–963. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.254.5034.959 .
  3. Anstey, J., Davini, P., Gray, L., Woollings, T., 2012. Multi-model analysis of winter blocking and tropospheric jet variability: The roles of horizontal and vertical resolution. Submitted to J.
 

Modelling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 78, No. 2-4. (October 2006), pp. 381-406, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9030-1

Abstract

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 ...

 

Forest Land

  
In Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use, Vol. 4 (2006)

Abstract

Introduction. This chapter provides methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and removals due to changes in biomass, dead organic matter and soil organic carbon on Forest Land and Land Converted to Forest Land . It builds on the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories ( 1996 IPCC Guidelines ) and the Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, La nd-Use Change and Forestry ( GPG-LULUCF ). The chapter: • addresses all five carbon pools identified in Chapter 1 and ...

 

Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change

  
Ecological Applications, Vol. 20, No. 2. (March 2010), pp. 554-565, https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0173.1

Abstract

ssessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2° × 2° or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/ipcc-scenarios

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.