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Selection: with tag integrated-modelling [57 articles] 

 

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 12. (04 December 2017), pp. 2125-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017

Abstract

Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose ...

 

A new definition of complexity in a risk analysis setting

  
Reliability Engineering & System Safety (November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.11.018

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] A new definition of complexity is presented [::] It allows for improved clarity on the links between complexity and risk [::] The idea is to link complexity to activities, and the knowledge about the consequences of these at different levels [Abstract] In this paper, we discuss the concept of complexity in a risk analysis context. Inspired by the work of Johansen and Rausand, a new perspective on complexity is presented which includes several common definitions of complexity as special cases. The idea ...

 

Bias correction in species distribution models: pooling survey and collection data for multiple species

  
Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, No. 4. (1 April 2015), pp. 424-438, https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12242

Abstract

[::] Presence-only records may provide data on the distributions of rare species, but commonly suffer from large, unknown biases due to their typically haphazard collection schemes. Presence–absence or count data collected in systematic, planned surveys are more reliable but typically less abundant. [::] We proposed a probabilistic model to allow for joint analysis of presence-only and survey data to exploit their complementary strengths. Our method pools presence-only and presence–absence data for many species and maximizes a joint likelihood, simultaneously estimating and adjusting ...

 

Strengthening protected areas for biodiversity and ecosystem services in China

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 7. (14 February 2017), pp. 1601-1606, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620503114

Abstract

[Significance] Following severe environmental degradation from rapid economic development, China is now advancing policies to secure biodiversity and ecosystem services. We report the first nationwide assessment, showing that protected areas (PAs) are not well delineated to protect either biodiversity or key ecosystem services. This serious deficiency exists in many countries. We propose creating a national park system in China to help guide development along a path of green growth, improving the well-being of both people and nature. This involves establishing new, strictly ...

 

Sequential disturbance effects of hailstorm and fire on vegetation in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

  
Ecosystems, Vol. 18, No. 7. (2015), pp. 1121-1134, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9886-5

Abstract

Frequency and intensity of disturbance is projected to increase for many ecosystems globally, with uncertain consequences, particularly when disturbances occur in rapid succession. We quantified community response (52 shrub species and the tree Eucalyptus todtiana) to a severe hailstorm followed 2 months later by prescribed fire for a Mediterranean-type shrubland in southwestern Australia. Partial overlap of hailstorm path and fire perimeter provided a unique opportunity to compare storm and fire effects along a storm severity gradient (high–moderate–none) with and without fire. ...

 

The trouble with negative emissions

  
Science, Vol. 354, No. 6309. (14 October 2016), pp. 182-183, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4567

Abstract

In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of “negative emissions,” the ...

 

The precision problem in conservation and restoration

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2016), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.08.001

Abstract

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit ...

 

Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

  
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 28, No. 8. (2014), pp. 2015-2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0891-6

Abstract

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous ...

 

Increased wind erosion from forest wildfire: implications for contaminant-related risks

  
Journal of Environment Quality, Vol. 35, No. 2. (2 February 2006), pp. 468-478, https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2005.0112

Abstract

Assessments of contaminant-related human and ecological risk require estimation of transport rates, but few data exist on wind-driven transport rates in nonagricultural systems, particularly in response to ecosystem disturbances such as forest wildfire and also relative to water-driven transport. The Cerro Grande wildfire in May of 2000 burned across ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P.&C. Lawson var. scopulorum Englem.) forest within Los Alamos National Laboratory in northern New Mexico, where contaminant transport and associated post-fire inhalation risks are of concern. ...

 

An assessment of methods and remote-sensing derived covariates for regional predictions of 1 km daily maximum air temperature

  
Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, No. 9. (16 September 2014), pp. 8639-8670, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6098639

Abstract

The monitoring and prediction of biodiversity and environmental changes is constrained by the availability of accurate and spatially contiguous climatic variables at fine temporal and spatial grains. In this study, we evaluate best practices for generating gridded, one-kilometer resolution, daily maximum air temperature surfaces in a regional context, the state of Oregon, USA. Covariates used in the interpolation include remote sensing derived elevation, aspect, canopy height, percent forest cover and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST). Because of missing values, ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 17

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: humidity   humus   hungary   hura-crepitans   hybrid-poplars   hybridisation   hydraulic-conductivity   hydraulic-properties   hydrogeology   hydrology   hydropower-energy   hylastes-cunicularius   hylobius-abietis   hylurgops-palliatus   hymenaea-courbaril   hymenoscyphus-pseudoalbidus   hyper-heuristics   hyphantria-cunea   hypoglycin-a   hypoxylon-mediterraneum   hypsipyla-robusta   iatrogenic-problem   iberian-peninsula   iberian-region   ica   ice-cover   ice-sheet   iceland   idl   ieee   iland   ilarvirus   ilex-aquifolium   ilex-spp   illyrian   ilwis   image-processing-analysis   impact   impact-factor   impacts   impatiens-spp   importance   in-situ-conservation   in-vitro-culture   inaction   inbreeding   incompatibility   incomplete-knowledge   incongruity   india   indian-ocean   indicator-species   indicators   indices   individual-emissions   indonedia   industry   inequality   infiltration   information   information-systems   information-technology-benefits   infrastructure   initial-conditions   innovation   inrmm   inrmm-list-of-tags   inrmm-relationship-schemata   insect-outbreak   insect-outbreaks   insect-resistance   insects   inspire   instability   insurance   integral-modelling   integral-quality-index   integrated-biodiversity-observation-system   integrated-modelling   integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management   integrated-water-resources-management   integration-constraints   integration-techniques   intelligence   inter-specific-crossing   interactions   interception-capacity   interdisciplinary-research   interglacial   international-trade   interoperability   interval-analysis   interview   intra-specific-crossing   intractable-problem   intraspecific-differentiation   intraspecific-variation   introduction   introgression  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

European atlas of forest tree species

  
Keywords: bioeconomy   chorology   classification   climate   constrained-spatial-multi-frequency-analysis   data-heterogeneity   data-integration   data-uncertainty   disasters   disturbances   ecological-zones   ecology   ecosystem-services   europe   floods   forest-fires   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gis   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integrated-modelling   integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management   integration-techniques   knowledge-integration   landslides   mastrave-modelling-library   modelling-uncertainty   open-data   paleoecology   relative-distance-similarity   reproducible-research   review   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   semap   software-uncertainty   soil-erosion   soil-resources   species-distribution   tree-species   uncertainty   water-resources   windstorm  

Abstract

[Excerpt] The European Atlas of Forest Tree Species is the first comprehensive publication of such a unique and essential environmental resource, that is, our trees. Leading scientists and forestry professionals have contributed in the many stages of the production of this atlas, through the collection of ground data on the location of tree species, elaboration of the distribution and suitability maps, production of the photographic material and compilation of the different chapters. The European Atlas of Forest Tree Species is both ...

 

Software Dependencies, Work Dependencies, and Their Impact on Failures

  
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, Vol. 35, No. 6. (November 2009), pp. 864-878, https://doi.org/10.1109/tse.2009.42

Abstract

Prior research has shown that customer-reported software faults are often the result of violated dependencies that are not recognized by developers implementing software. Many types of dependencies and corresponding measures have been proposed to help address this problem. The objective of this research is to compare the relative performance of several of these dependency measures as they relate to customer-reported defects. Our analysis is based on data collected from two projects from two independent companies. Combined, our data set encompasses eight ...

 

The decadal state of the terrestrial carbon cycle: global retrievals of terrestrial carbon allocation, pools, and residence times

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 5. (02 February 2016), pp. 1285-1290, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1515160113

Abstract

[Significance] Quantitative knowledge of terrestrial carbon pathways and processes is fundamental for understanding the biosphere’s response to a changing climate. Carbon allocation, stocks, and residence times together define the dynamic state of the terrestrial carbon cycle. These quantities are difficult to measure and remain poorly quantified on a global scale. Here, we retrieve global 1° × 1° carbon state and process variables by combining a carbon balance model with satellite observations of biomass and leaf area (where and when available) and global ...

Visual summary


  • Figure: http://www.pnas.org/content/113/5/1285/F4.large.jpg
  • Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1515160113
  • Caption: Retrievals of C residence time (RT) in live biomass and dead organic C pools; residence times are retrieved at 1° × 1° using a Bayesian MDF approach (Fig. 1). Brown denotes ecosystems with high residence times for all C pools, green denotes ecosystems with long live biomass C residence times, and orange denotes ecosystems with low live
 

Study of a collaborative repository of semantic metadata and models for regional environmental datasets' multivariate transformations

  
(2015)
edited by Giorgio Guariso

Abstract

A semantic modelling procedure is introduced to ease array-based multivariate transformations of public environmental data, along with the architecture of a collaborative repository of modelling meta-information based on the procedure. [\n] The procedure, Semantic Array Programming (SemAP), is intended as a lightweight paradigm to support integrated natural resources modelling and management (INRMM), in the context of wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe, here tested from catchment up to regional and continental scale). [\n] It is a common experience among computational scientists, ...

References

  1. Aalde, H., Gonzalez, P., Gytarsky, M., Krug, T., Kurz, W. A., Ogle, S., Raison, J., Schoene, D., Ravindranath, N. H., Elhassan, N. G., Heath, L. S., Higuchi, N., Kainja, S., Matsumoto, M., Sanz Sánchez, M. J., Somogyi, Z., 2006. Forest Land. Vol. 4 of IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Ch. 4, 83 pp. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_04_Ch4_Forest_Land.pdf .
 

Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests: case studies on large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella) under present and future climate conditions in European forests

  
EPPO Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 2. (1 August 2015), pp. 273-281, https://doi.org/10.1111/epp.12208

Abstract

Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their negative effects could be exacerbated by climate change. This paper illustrates how species distribution modelling integrated with host tree species distribution data can be used to assess forest vulnerability to this threat. Two case studies are used: large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella Deschka & Dimič) both at pan-European level. The proposed approach integrates information from different sources. Occurrence data of insect pests ...

Visual summary

 

Interactive comment (reply to Anonymous Referee 3) on Modelling soil erosion at European scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility - by Bosco et al

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 2 (2014), pp. C1786-C1795, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1379902

Abstract

Throughout the public discussion of our article Bosco et al. (Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2639-2680, 2014), the Anonymous Referee 3 provided (Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, C1592-C1594, 2014) a variety of insights. This work presents our replies to them. ...

 

Interactive comment (reply to Dino Torri) on Modelling soil erosion at European scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility - by Bosco et al

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 2 (2014), pp. C671-C688, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1379901

Abstract

During the public discussion of our article Bosco et al. (Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 2639-2680, 2014), D. Torri provided numerous insights (Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2, C528-C532, 2014). This work offers our replies to them. ...

 

W(h)ither the Oracle? Cognitive biases and other human challenges of integrated environmental modeling

  
In Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA (2014), 113

Abstract

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) can organize and increase our knowledge of the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control the quality of our environments. Human behavior, however, must be taken into account. Human biases/heuristics reflect adaptation over our evolutionary past to frequently experienced situations that affected our survival and that provided sharply distinguished feedbacks at the level of the individual. Unfortunately, human behavior is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced, less frequently encountered, problems and issues that ...

 

Modelling soil erosion at European scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 15, No. 2. (4 February 2015), pp. 225-245, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-225-2015

Abstract

Soil erosion by water is one of the most widespread forms of soil degradation. The loss of soil as a result of erosion can lead to decline in organic matter and nutrient contents, breakdown of soil structure and reduction of the water-holding capacity. Measuring soil loss across the whole landscape is impractical and thus research is needed to improve methods of estimating soil erosion with computational modelling, upon which integrated assessment and mitigation strategies may be based. Despite the efforts, the ...

 

A component-based framework for simulating agricultural production and externalities

  
In Environmental and Agricultural Modeling: (2010), pp. 63-108, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3619-3_4

Abstract

Although existing simulation tools can be used to study the impact of agricultural management on production activities in specific environments, they suffer from several limitations. They are largely specialized for specific production activities: arable crops/cropping systems, grassland, orchards, agro-forestry, livestock etc. Also, they often have a restricted ability to simulate system externalities which may have a negative environmental impact. Furthermore, the structure of such systems neither allows an easy plug-in of modules for other agricultural production activities, nor the use of ...

 

Integrated assessment of agricultural systems – A component-based framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS)

  
Agricultural Systems, Vol. 96, No. 1-3. (March 2008), pp. 150-165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2007.07.009

Abstract

Agricultural systems continuously evolve and are forced to change as a result of a range of global and local driving forces. Agricultural technologies and agricultural, environmental and rural development policies are increasingly designed to contribute to the sustainability of agricultural systems and to enhance contributions of agricultural systems to sustainable development at large. The effectiveness and efficiency of such policies and technological developments in realizing desired contributions could be greatly enhanced if the quality of their ex-ante assessments were improved. Four ...

 

Ontology for Seamless Integration of Agricultural Data and Models

  
In Metadata and Semantic Research, Vol. 46 (2009), pp. 282-293, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04590-5_27

Abstract

This paper presents a set of ontologies developed in order to facilitate the integration of a variety of combinatorial, simulation and optimization models related to agriculture. The developed ontologies have been exploited in the software lifecycle, by using them to specify data communication across the models, and with a relational database. The Seamless ontologies provide with definitions for crops and crop products, agricultural feasibility filters, agricultural management, and economic valuation of crop products, and agricultural and environmental policy, which are in ...

 

Delivering Environmental Knowledge: a Semantic Approach

  
In EnviroInfo 2007 (Warschau) Environmental Informatics and Systems Research (2007), pp. 43-50

Abstract

Environmental informatics delivers techniques and tools for archiving and processing environmental data. The advent of the Internet had positively affected the availability and ease of access to large and diverse environmental databases, distributed all over the world. On the other hand, similar progress has not been matched by the availability of models and algorithms able to process these data, mostly because of the lack of standards in the annotation of the characteristics of environmental models. In this paper we advocate the need for the semantic ...

 

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

  
IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 7, No. 2. (2014), 908802, https://doi.org/10.1101/011932

Abstract

This paper describes the conceptual design of a regional modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model and a forest owner decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis ...

Visual summary

  • Figure:65%: http://earthzine.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/table112.png
  • Source: http://earthzine.org/?p=908802
  • Caption: Summary of tools in assessing the forest-based sector of the bioeconomy. The core required tools are shaded in grey, while others are extensions of the framework. [It is] an overview of the tools (models and datasets) that could be used for the assessment of the forest-sector related aspects of the bioeconomy. We have separated the tools
 

Estimating the effects of water-induced shallow landslides on soil erosion

  
IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 7, No. 2. (November 2014), 910137, https://doi.org/10.1101/011965

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides and soil erosion are part of a complex system of multiple interacting processes, and both are capable of significantly affecting sediment budgets. These sediment mass movements also have the potential to significantly impact on a broad network of ecosystems, in terms of their health, functionality and the services they provide. To support the integrated assessment of these processes it is necessary to develop reliable modelling architectures. This paper proposes a semi-quantitative integrated methodology for a robust assessment of soil ...

References

  1. W.J. van Asch, "Water erosion on slopes and landsliding in a Mediterranean landscape," Ph.D dissertation, Utrecht Univ., 1980
  2. P.H. Van Beek, "Assessment of the Influence of Changes in Landuse and Climate on Landslide Activity in a Mediterranean Environment," Ph.D dissertation, Utrecht Univ., Utrecht, 200
  3. A. Cochrane, and Acharya, G., "Changes in sediment delivery from hillslopes affected by shallow landslides and soil armouring," Journal of Hydrology (New Zealand), vol. 50, no. 1,
 

Climate impact research: beyond patchwork

  
Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, No. 2. (13 November 2014), pp. 399-408, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-399-2014

Abstract

Despite significant progress in climate impact research, the narratives that science can presently piece together of a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C warmer world remain fragmentary. Here we briefly review past undertakings to characterise comprehensively and quantify climate impacts based on multi-model approaches. We then report on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), a community-driven effort to compare impact models across sectors and scales systematically, and to quantify the uncertainties along the chain from greenhouse gas emissions and climate ...

References

  1. Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Nicholls, R. J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T. M., Rose, G. A., Smith, P., and Warren, R. F.: A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 512–519, 2013.
  2. Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K.
 

Evaluating integrated assessment tools for policy support

  
In Environmental and Agricultural Modelling (2010), pp. 237-256, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3619-3_10

Abstract

Integrated Assessment Modelling tools are complex tools requiring specific evaluation methodologies. Based on the example of the SEAMLESS-Integrated framework, we show how the conceptual, technical and system evaluation steps of the different components (procedures, quantitative models, graphic user interfaces) were performed by a multidisciplinary team. To make the not-yet-available tool real, mock-up and test cases were mobilized throughout the development process in order to integrate final end-users in the evaluation process. The main lessons from the project are that the evaluation ...

 

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions. Innovating for Sustainable Growth: A Bioeconomy for Europe

  
No. COM(2012) 60 final. (2012)

Abstract

[Excerpt] A bioeconomy strategy for Europe In order to cope with an increasing global population, rapid depletion of many resources, increasing environmental pressures and climate change, Europe needs to radically change its approach to production, consumption, processing, storage, recycling and disposal of biological resources. The Europe 2020 Strategy calls for a bioeconomy as a key element for smart and green growth in Europe. Advancements in bioeconomy research and innovation uptake will allow Europe to improve the management of its renewable biological ...

 

Designing and building real environmental decision support systems

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 19, No. 9. (September 2004), pp. 857-873, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2003.03.007

Abstract

The complexity of environmental problems makes necessary the development and application of new tools capable of processing not only numerical aspects, but also experience from experts and wide public participation, which are all needed in decision-making processes. Environmental decision support systems (EDSSs) are among the most promising approaches to confront this complexity. The fact that different tools (artificial intelligence techniques, statistical/numerical methods, geographical information systems, and environmental ontologies) can be integrated under different architectures confers EDSSs the ability to confront complex ...

 

An overview of model integration for environmental applications - components, frameworks and semantics

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 19, No. 3. (March 2004), pp. 219-234, https://doi.org/10.1016/s1364-8152(03)00150-6

Abstract

In recent years, pressure has increased on environmental scientist/modellers to both undertake good science in an efficient and timely manner, under increasing resource constraints, and also to ensure that the science being performed is immediately relevant to a particular environmental management context. At the same time, environmental management is changing, with increasing requirements for multi-scale and multi-objective assessment and decision making that considers economic and social systems, as well as the ecosystem. Integration of management activities, and also of the modelling ...

 

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 39 (January 2013), pp. 116-134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.008

Abstract

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within ...

 

Integrated assessment models for ecologists: the present and the future

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 23, No. 2. (February 2014), pp. 124-143, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12100

Abstract

[Aim] Human impacts on the biosphere are a matter of urgent and growing concern, with ecologists increasingly being asked to project biodiversity futures. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is likely to comprehensively assess such projections, yet despite being widely used and potentially critical tools for analysing socio-environmental futures, integrated assessment models (IAMs) have received little attention from ecological modellers. We aim to raise awareness and understanding of IAMs among ecologists by describing the structure and composition of ...

 

Natural hazard chain research in China: A review

  
Natural Hazards In Natural Hazards, Vol. 70, No. 2. (2014), pp. 1631-1659, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0881-x

Abstract

Most catastrophic disasters are triggered by multi-hazards that occur simultaneously or sequentially rather than singly; this can result in more severe consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the occurrence, development, and transformation of hazard chains and comprehend their rules in order to predict secondary hazards. An effective action for reducing potential losses can be taken to block a hazard chain before it expands and transforms. Many studies have been conducted on hazard chains, some of which are of great significance. ...

 

Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 9. (3 August 2014), pp. 806-810, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2318

Abstract

Disturbances from wind, bark beetles and wildfires have increased in Europe’s forests throughout the twentieth century1. Climatic changes were identified as a key driver behind this increase2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe’s forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget3, 4, and are suggested to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe’s forests5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase ...

 

Environmental risk and assessment modelling - Scientific needs and expected advancements

  
In Air, Water and Soil Quality Modelling for Risk and Impact Assessment (2007), pp. 29-44, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5877-6_3

Abstract

Environmental risk and impact assessment and prediction modelling is one of the most important instruments in the environmental security management and preparedness, and it needs further development in the quickly changing world and society. Most of the previous studies in this field considered, as a rule, only separate aspects of the risk and impact assessments. New realities and problems in the environmental security, supercomputer facilities, request a new generation of the assessments and prediction tools for the risk and impact assessments. ...

 

Remote Sensing and GIS for Natural Hazards Assessment and Disaster Risk Management

  
In Remote Sensing and GIScience in Geomorphology, Vol. 3 (2013), pp. 259-298, https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-374739-6.00051-8

Abstract

The world has experienced an increasing impact of disasters in the past decades. Many regions are exposed to natural hazards, each with unique characteristics. The main causes for this increase can be attributed to a higher frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events, most probably related to climate change and an increase in a vulnerable population. To reduce disaster losses, more efforts should be applied toward disaster-risk management, with a focus on hazard assessment, elements-at-risk mapping, and vulnerability and risk assessment, all of ...

 

Landscape ecology: its role as a trans-disciplinary science for rangeland sustainability

  
The Rangeland Journal, Vol. 35, No. 4. (2013), 363, https://doi.org/10.1071/rj12067

Abstract

The aim is to review landscape ecology and the contribution it can make to sustainable rangeland management, using Australia as an example. An examination is made of how much traditional ecology, as a discipline, influences landscape ecology in Australia. Also evaluated is whether, under this influence, landscape ecology is emerging as effectively as it could be as a trans-disciplinary science that can contribute significantly to rangeland sustainability. Surveys of landscape ecologists in Australia make it possible to classify Australian landscape ecology ...

 

Supplementary materials for: a proposal for an integrated modelling framework to characterise habitat pattern

  
(2014)

Abstract

In Estreguil et al. (Environ Modell Softw 52, 176-191, 2014), an integrated modelling framework is proposed to characterise habitat pattern. The modelling approach is there exemplified by deriving a set of twelve indices aggregated into four categories: general landscape composition, habitat morphology, edge interface and connectivity. The easy and reproducible computability is ensured with the integrated use of publicly available software (GUIDOS free-download software, Conefor free software) and of newly programmed tools. A statistical analysis is then conducted using classical linear ...

 

Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

  
Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 30, No. 21-22. (October 2011), pp. 2930-2947, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.06.012

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Species distribution modeling (SDM) offers new possibilities for paleobiology. [::] Key methods issues include predictors, validation, and integration with genetics. [::] Many SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia. [::] SDM-based studies also address megafaunal extinctions and deep-time biogeography. [::] The equilibrium postulate and niche stability constitute important assumptions. [Abstract] Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for ...

 

Connectivity of Natura 2000 forest sites in Europe

  
F1000Posters, Vol. 2014, No. 5. (Jun 2014), 485, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1063300

Abstract

[Background/Purpose]: In the context of the European Biodiversity policy, the Green Infrastructure Strategy is one supporting tool to mitigate fragmentation, inter-alia to increase the spatial and functional connectivity between protected and unprotected areas. The Joint Research Centre has developed an integrated model to provide a macro-scale set of indices to evaluate the connectivity of Natura 2000 network, which forms the backbone of a Green Infrastructure for Europe. The model allows a wide assessment and comparison to be performed across country in terms ...

References

  1. Bennett, J., 2010. OpenStreetMap. Packt Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-84719-750-4
  2. Bennett, G., Bento Pais, R., Berry, P Didicescu, P. S., Fichter, M., Hlavᡠ, V., Hoellen, K., Jones-Walters, L., Miko, L., Onida, M., Plesník, J., Smith, D., Wakenhut, F., 2010. Green Infrastructure Implementation: Proceedings of the European Commission Conference 19 November 2010. (Ed: Karhu, J.). European Commission, 28 pp. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/ecosystems/green_infrastructure.htm
  3. de Rigo, D., 2012. Applying semantic constraints to array programming: the
 

Modelling soil erosion at European scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 2, No. 4. (11 April 2014), pp. 2639-2680, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2639-2014

Abstract

Soil erosion by water is one of the most widespread forms of soil degradation. The loss of soil as a result of erosion can lead to decline in organic matter and nutrient contents, breakdown of soil structure and reduction of the water holding capacity. Measuring soil loss across the whole landscape is impractical and thus research is needed to improve methods of estimating soil erosion with computational modelling, upon which integrated assessment and mitigation strategies may be based. Despite the efforts, ...

 

The power of biomass: Experts disclose the potential for success of bioenergy technologies

  
Energy Policy, Vol. 65 (February 2014), pp. 94-114, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.015

Abstract

This paper focuses on technologies which use thermo-chemical or biochemical processes to convert biomass into electricity. We present the results from an expert elicitation exercise involving sixteen leading experts coming from different EU Member States. Aim of the elicitation was to assess the potential cost reduction of RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration) efforts and to identify barriers to the diffusion of these technologies. The research sheds light on the future potential of bioenergy technologies both in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation ...

 

Status and ecological effects of the world's largest carnivores

  
Science, Vol. 343, No. 6167. (10 January 2014), 1241484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1241484

Abstract

The largest terrestrial species in the order Carnivora are wide-ranging and rare because of their positions at the top of food webs. They are some of the world’s most admired mammals and, ironically, some of the most imperiled. Most have experienced substantial population declines and range contractions throughout the world during the past two centuries. Because of the high metabolic demands that come with endothermy and large body size, these carnivores often require large prey and expansive habitats. These food requirements ...

 

A proposal for an integrated modelling framework to characterise habitat pattern

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 52 (February 2014), pp. 176-191, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.011

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Habitat pattern characterisation as methodological guidance for fragmentation assessments (applied in Europe). [::] Reproducible integration of three landscape models with GIS and semantic array programming. [::] Four families indices: landscape composition, edge interface, habitat morphology and connectivity. [::] New indices: edge interface context of morphological shapes; Power Weighted Probability of Dispersal family for connectivity. [::] Nonlinear statistical correlation analysis based on Brownian Distance Correlation. [Abstract] Harmonized information on habitat pattern, fragmentation and connectivity is one among the reporting needs of the biodiversity policy agenda. This paper ...

 

Software uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: the role of semantics and open science

  
Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 15 (Nov 2013), 13292, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.155701

Abstract

Computational aspects increasingly shape environmental sciences. Actually, transdisciplinary modelling of complex and uncertain environmental systems is challenging computational science (CS) and also the science-policy interface. Large spatial-scale problems falling within this category - i.e. wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) - often deal with factors for which deep-uncertainty may prevent usual statistical analysis of modelled quantities and need different ways for providing policy-making with science-based support. Here, practical recommendations are proposed for tempering a peculiar - not infrequently underestimated - source of uncertainty. Software errors in complex WSTMe may ...

Visual summary

 

Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest based sector

  
No. COM(2013) 659 final. (20 September 2013)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Guiding principles] [::] Sustainable forest management and the multifunctional role of forests, delivering multiple goods and services in a balanced way and ensuring forest protection; [::] Resource efficiency, optimising the contribution of forests and the forest sector to rural development, growth and job creation. [::] Global forest responsibility, promoting sustainable production and consumption of forest products. [\n] Europe has a long tradition of sustainable forest management, which is reflected in the FOREST EUROPE principles applied by Member States’ policies and supported ...

 

On biodiversity conservation and poverty traps

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, No. 34. (23 August 2011), pp. 13907-13912, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011521108

Abstract

This paper introduces a special feature on biodiversity conservation and poverty traps. We define and explain the core concepts and then identify four distinct classes of mechanisms that define important interlinkages between biodiversity and poverty. The multiplicity of candidate mechanisms underscores a major challenge in designing policy appropriate across settings. This framework is then used to introduce the ensuing set of papers, which empirically explore these various mechanisms linking poverty traps and biodiversity conservation. ...

 

Introduction to land-use and climate change impacts on landslides

  
Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology, Vol. 43, No. 4. (01 November 2010), pp. 367-370, https://doi.org/10.1144/1470-9236/10-035

Abstract

[excerpt] The evidence of a general trend of global warming is overwhelming. It now seems beyond reasonable doubt that increases in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have led to an increase in the global temperature anomaly, which is, in turn, leading to changes and, indeed, instability in the climate (see Dijkstra & Dixon 2010). The Stern Review (Stern 2007) presented an economic argument in favour of action to limit the potential 5–20% loss of global gross domestic product (GDP) each ...

 

IWRM in the Adda basin, Northern Italy

  
Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 9 (2007), 08901

Abstract

The Adda river basin, in Northern Italy, is a 6.500 km2 wide basin which includes the Como Lake. The lake has been used as a regulated multipurpose reservoir for sixty years and its management has been primarily aimed at the satisfaction of downstream water demands for irrigation and hydropower generation, as well as at the control of floods, both on the lake shores and on the outflowing Adda river. Due to the changing legal and hydrological conditions the conflict between these ...

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