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Selection: with tag global-warming [148 articles] 

 

Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions

  

Abstract

Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1,2, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of ...

 

A plan to shoot tiny droplets into the sky would cool the planet—but wouldn’t help crops

  
Science (08 August 2018), https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav0467

Abstract

Cooling Earth by injecting tiny particles high into the atmosphere, just as Mount Pinatubo’s 1991 eruption did, probably wouldn’t help crop yields in a warmer world. ...

 

Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, No. 8. (30 July 2018), pp. 699-703, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x

Abstract

Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1,2,3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4,5,6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and ...

 

Trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 33. (14 August 2018), pp. 8252-8259, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Abstract

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the ...

 

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

  
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, No. 5. (01 May 2018), 054006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827

Abstract

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over ...

 

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 24. (12 June 2018), pp. 6243-6248, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718945115

Abstract

[Significance] This study is a multigeneral circulation model, multiscenario modeling exercise developed to quantify the dengue-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C above preindustrial levels in Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimate the impact of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases and provide insights about the regions and periods most likely affected by changes in the length of the transmission season. Here, we show that future climate change may amplify dengue ...

 

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

  
Nature, Vol. 558, No. 7708. (6 June 2018), pp. 41-49, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. ...

 

Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (14 May 2018), 201713628, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713628115

Abstract

[Significance] This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change ...

 

Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations

  
Science, Vol. 358, No. 6370. (21 December 2017), pp. 1610-1614, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao0432

Abstract

[Warming stresses developing countries] Weather-induced conflicts in developing countries spill over to developed countries through asylum applications. One approach to estimating the future impacts of climate change is to look at the effects of weather fluctuations. These transient shocks can be interpreted analytically as randomly distributed treatments applied to countries around the world. Missirian and Schlenker analyzed the relation between these localized shocks to agriculture and applications by that country's migrants for asylum in the European Union. When temperatures in the source ...

 

Temperature accelerates the rate fields become forests

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (16 April 2018), 201716665, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716665115

Abstract

[Significance] The transition of abandoned fields into forests (secondary succession) has long informed ecologists’ understanding of community assembly and species interactions. Intriguingly, rates of secondary succession show a striking latitudinal pattern, with dominance by woody species (>50% cover) taking less than a decade in the southern United States, and up to 60 years in New England. We used a large-scale experimental network to test how multiple drivers (climate, soils, and the identity of dominant species) influence field-to-forest transitions. We found consistent evidence ...

 

Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?

  
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, No. 2119. (13 April 2018), 20160457, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0457

Abstract

We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of ...

 

How cleaner air changes the climate

  
Science, Vol. 360, No. 6385. (13 April 2018), pp. 148-150, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat1723

Abstract

Aerosols have a strong influence on the present climate, but this influence will likely be reduced over the coming decades as air pollution measures are implemented around the world. At a global level, aerosols have helped to reduce the warming effect from greenhouse gas emissions, and necessary reductions in air pollution may thus make it harder to achieve ambitious global climate and environmental aims, such as the Paris Agreement's 2°C target. Furthermore, the local nature of air pollution means that the ...

 

Attribution of recent temperature behaviour reassessed by a neural-network method

  
Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, No. 1. (15 December 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-18011-8

Abstract

Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a ...

 

Droughts, floods, and wildfire

  
In Climate science special report: fourth national climate assessment, volume I (2017), pp. 231-253, https://doi.org/10.7930/J0CJ8BNN

Abstract

[Excerpt:Key findings] [::1] Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to ...

 

Humidity determines snowpack ablation under a warming climate

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 6. (06 January 2018), pp. 1215-1220, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1716789115

Abstract

[Significance] Changes in the amount and timing of snowmelt have large effects on water for society and ecosystems. Using long-term records from across the western United States, we demonstrate that atmospheric humidity is a major control on how seasonal snow responds to warming temperatures. Specifically, we observe an increase in the frequency and magnitude of episodic winter melt events under higher humidity that may alter the timing of water availability. In lower-humidity regions, however, warming is associated with increased sublimation and/or evaporation ...

 

Climate impacts from a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions

  
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, No. 2. (28 January 2018), pp. 1020-1029, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076079

Abstract

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface ...

 

Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first time

  
Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7685. (2017), pp. 291-292, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-017-08808-y

Abstract

Scientists take the bold step of saying phenomena wouldn’t have happened without global warming. [Excerpt] [...] Now, for the first time, climate researchers are reporting that some weather events would have been outright impossible without the warming influence of humanity’s greenhouse-gas emissions. [\n] This kind of confident assertion rarely makes its way into the scientific literature. Yet it appeared in three studies included in a special annual edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) dedicated to attributing the causes of ...

 

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

  
Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7683. (6 December 2017), pp. 45-50, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature24672

Abstract

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget ...

 

Less than 2 °C? An economic-environmental evaluation of the Paris Agreement

  
Ecological Economics, Vol. 146 (April 2018), pp. 69-84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.10.007

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] 188 countries' INDCs have been analysed from a policies, finance and emissions point of view. [::] Policies and finance are faced up with socio-economic and biophysical constraints. [::] Unilateralism and finance approach lead to mismatches between policies and global objectives. [::] Constraints and mismatches could explain the Paris Agreement ineffectiveness. [Abstract] The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies ...

 

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 47. (21 November 2017), pp. E10142-E10150, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708109114

Abstract

[Significance] Climate extremes are major drivers of long-term forest growth trends, but we still lack appropriate knowledge to anticipate their effects. Here, we apply a conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of Circum-Mediterranean Abies refugia in response to climate warming, droughts, and heat waves. Using a tree-ring network and a process-based model, we assess the future vulnerability of Mediterranean Abies forests. Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat ...

 

Natural climate solutions

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 44. (31 October 2017), pp. 11645-11650, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Abstract

[Significance] Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize ...

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

 

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible

  
Nature (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22627

Abstract

Analysis suggests that researchers have underestimated how much carbon humanity can emit before reaching this level of warming. [Excerpt] A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will ...

 

Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 8. (24 July 2017), pp. 568-572, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 17) under a most likely emission scenario, we ...

 

Fears rise for US climate report as Trump officials take reins

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (1 August 2017), pp. 15-16, https://doi.org/10.1038/548015a

Abstract

Officials at the US Environmental Protection Agency are consulting global-warming sceptics as they weigh up a technical review. ...

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index

  
Journal of Climate In Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, No. 7. (19 November 2009), pp. 1696-1718, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2909.1

Abstract

The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the ...

 

Three years to safeguard our climate

  
Nature, Vol. 546, No. 7660. (28 June 2017), pp. 593-595, https://doi.org/10.1038/546593a

Abstract

Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020. [Excerpt] [...] According to an April report1 (prepared by Carbon Tracker in London, the Climate Action Tracker consortium, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut), should emissions continue to rise beyond 2020, or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable. The UN Sustainable Development Goals that were agreed ...

 

Silver fir defoliation likelihood is related to negative growth trends and high warming sensitivity at their southernmost distribution limit

  
ISRN Forestry, Vol. 2012 (2012), pp. 1-8, https://doi.org/10.5402/2012/437690

Abstract

Changes in radial growth have been used to estimate tree decline probability since they may indicate tree responses to long- and short-term stressors. We used visual assessments of crown defoliation, an indicator of decline, and retrospective tree-ring analyses to determine whether climate-growth sensitivity and tree growth rates may be used as predictors of tree die-off probability in Abies alba (silver fir) at the Spanish Pyrenees. We used climatic data to calculate standardized temperature and precipitation data and drought indexes. Basal area ...

 

Annex III: glossary

  
In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465

Abstract

[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...

 

Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: approaches and challenges

  
Journal of Ecology, Vol. 103, No. 1. (January 2015), pp. 5-15, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12337

Abstract

[::] Anthropogenic global change compromises forest resilience, with profound impacts to ecosystem functions and services. This synthesis paper reflects on the current understanding of forest resilience and potential tipping points under environmental change and explores challenges to assessing responses using experiments, observations and models. [::] Forests are changing over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales, but it is often unclear whether these changes reduce resilience or represent a tipping point. Tipping points may arise from interactions across scales, as processes such as ...

 

Ecological responses to recent climate change

  
Nature, Vol. 416 (2002), pp. 389-395, https://doi.org/10.1038/416389a

Abstract

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological ...

 

Distinct effects of climate warming on populations of silver fir (Abies alba) across Europe

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 42, No. 6. (June 2015), pp. 1150-1162, https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12512

Abstract

[Aim] Climate change is expected to modify growth trends of forests around the world. However, this modification may vary in strength and intensity across a species' biogeographical range. Here, we study European populations of silver fir (Abies alba) across its southern distribution limits in Spain, Italy and Romania. We hypothesized that growth trends of silver fir will differ across its distribution range, with a marked decline in growth in drought-prone regions near the species' southernmost biogeographical limits. [Location] Europe (Spain, Italy, Romania). [Methods] We collected tree-ring ...

 

Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe

  
Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 3. (June 2004), pp. 366-380, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2004.03823.x

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible consequences of climate change on a representative sample of forest herbs in Europe. A fuzzy climatic envelope was used to predict the location of suitable climatic conditions under two climatic change scenarios. Expected consequences in terms of lost and gained range size and shift in distribution for 26 forest herbs were estimated. These results were combined in an Index of Predicted Range Change for each species. Finally, the effects of habitat ...

 

Climate-induced forest dieback: an escalating global phenomenon?

  
Unasylva, Vol. 60, No. 231-232. (2009), pp. 43-49

Abstract

Forests, which today cover 30 percent of the world’s land surface (FAO, 2006), are being rapidly and directly transformed in many areas by the impacts of expanding human populations and economies. Less evident are the pervasive effects of ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Recent examples of drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback (defined here as tree mortality noticeably above usual mortality levels) are being documented from all forested continents, making it possible ...

 

Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2007)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science of climate change and continues to broaden the view of that science, following on from previous Working Group I assessments. The results presented here are based on the extensive scientific literature that has become available since completion of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, together with expanded data sets, new analyses, and more sophisticated climate modelling capabilities. [\n] This report has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures ...

 

The global methane budget 2000–2012

  
Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, No. 2. (12 December 2016), pp. 697-751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016

Abstract

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety ...

 

Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 7. (18 May 2015), pp. 669-672, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2641

Abstract

Nature Climate Change | Letter Print Share/bookmark Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming Nathan G. McDowell & Craig D. Allen Affiliations Contributions Corresponding author Nature Climate Change 5, 669–672 (2015) https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2641 Received 23 July 2014 Accepted 07 April ...

 

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1. (2 December 2012), pp. 4-6, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1783

Abstract

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term. ...

 

Wildfires in a warmer climate: emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, No. 7. (16 April 2016), pp. 3195-3223, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024142

Abstract

Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ...

 

Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming

  
Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 9, No. 4. (August 1998), pp. 469-476, https://doi.org/10.2307/3237261

Abstract

Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850), wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency. Simulations of present and future fire regimes, using daily outputs from the General Circulation Model (GCM), were in good agreement with recent trends observed ...

 

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

  
Scientific Reports, Vol. 6 (27 July 2016), 30294, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30294

Abstract

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate ...

 

The trouble with negative emissions

  
Science, Vol. 354, No. 6309. (14 October 2016), pp. 182-183, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah4567

Abstract

In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of “negative emissions,” the ...

 

The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 3. (1 March 2014), pp. 164-166, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2148

Abstract

It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures are likely to rise above the 2 °C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate. ...

 

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (10 October 2016), 201607171, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113

Abstract

[Significance] Increased forest fire activity across the western United States in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. Although numerous factors aided the recent rise in fire activity, observed warming and drying have significantly increased fire-season fuel aridity, fostering a more favorable fire environment across forested systems. We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the ...

 

The maximum climate ambition needs a firm research backing

  
Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7622. (28 September 2016), pp. 585-586, https://doi.org/10.1038/537585b

Abstract

We need to know what the 1.5 °C warming target will involve — even if we don’t reach it. [Excerpt] [...] The 2015 Paris climate agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the preindustrial level. But warming has already passed the 1-degree mark, and some estimates suggest that even if current commitments are fully implemented, they would allow temperatures to rise nearly 3 °C. If the 2-degree goal seems implausible, given current politics, 1.5 °C is ...

 

Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity

  
Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, No. 1. (2016), pp. 1-14, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0031-0

Abstract

Fire is an integral component of the Earth system that will critically affect how terrestrial carbon budgets and living systems respond to climate change. Paleo and observational records document robust positive relationships between fire activity and aridity in many parts of the world on interannual to millennial timescales. Observed increases in fire activity and aridity in many areas over the past several decades motivate curiosity as to the degree to which anthropogenic climate change will alter global fire regimes and subsequently ...

 

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western U.S.?

  
Ecological Applications (August 2016), https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1420

Abstract

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across ...

 

GECO 2015 - Global energy and climate outlook: road to Paris

  
Vol. EUR 27239 EN (2015), https://doi.org/10.2791/198028

Abstract

This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020" in the EU's Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, ...

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Biomass collapse in Amazonian forest fragments

  
Science, Vol. 278, No. 5340. (7 November 1997), pp. 1117-1118, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.278.5340.1117

Abstract

Rain forest fragments in central Amazonia were found to experience a dramatic loss of above-ground tree biomass that is not offset by recruitment of new trees. These losses were largest within 100 meters of fragment edges, where tree mortality is sharply increased by microclimatic changes and elevated wind turbulence. Permanent study plots within 100 meters of edges lost up to 36 percent of their biomass in the first 10 to 17 years after fragmentation. Lianas (climbing woody vines) increased near edges ...

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