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Selection: with tag global-warming [124 articles] 


Fears rise for US climate report as Trump officials take reins

Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (1 August 2017), pp. 15-16,


Officials at the US Environmental Protection Agency are consulting global-warming sceptics as they weigh up a technical review. ...


Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017),


The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...


A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index

Journal of Climate In Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, No. 7. (19 November 2009), pp. 1696-1718,


The authors propose a new climatic drought index: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The SPEI is based on precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. The procedure to calculate the index is detailed and involves a climatic water balance, the accumulation of deficit/surplus at different time scales, and adjustment to a log-logistic probability distribution. Mathematically, the SPEI is similar to the ...


Three years to safeguard our climate

Nature, Vol. 546, No. 7660. (28 June 2017), pp. 593-595,


Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020. [Excerpt] [...] According to an April report1 (prepared by Carbon Tracker in London, the Climate Action Tracker consortium, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut), should emissions continue to rise beyond 2020, or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable. The UN Sustainable Development Goals that were agreed ...


Silver fir defoliation likelihood is related to negative growth trends and high warming sensitivity at their southernmost distribution limit

ISRN Forestry, Vol. 2012 (2012), pp. 1-8,


Changes in radial growth have been used to estimate tree decline probability since they may indicate tree responses to long- and short-term stressors. We used visual assessments of crown defoliation, an indicator of decline, and retrospective tree-ring analyses to determine whether climate-growth sensitivity and tree growth rates may be used as predictors of tree die-off probability in Abies alba (silver fir) at the Spanish Pyrenees. We used climatic data to calculate standardized temperature and precipitation data and drought indexes. Basal area ...


Annex III: glossary

In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465


[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...


Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: approaches and challenges

Journal of Ecology, Vol. 103, No. 1. (January 2015), pp. 5-15,


[::] Anthropogenic global change compromises forest resilience, with profound impacts to ecosystem functions and services. This synthesis paper reflects on the current understanding of forest resilience and potential tipping points under environmental change and explores challenges to assessing responses using experiments, observations and models. [::] Forests are changing over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales, but it is often unclear whether these changes reduce resilience or represent a tipping point. Tipping points may arise from interactions across scales, as processes such as ...


Ecological responses to recent climate change

Nature, Vol. 416 (2002), pp. 389-395,


There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological ...


Distinct effects of climate warming on populations of silver fir (Abies alba) across Europe

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 42, No. 6. (June 2015), pp. 1150-1162,


[Aim] Climate change is expected to modify growth trends of forests around the world. However, this modification may vary in strength and intensity across a species' biogeographical range. Here, we study European populations of silver fir (Abies alba) across its southern distribution limits in Spain, Italy and Romania. We hypothesized that growth trends of silver fir will differ across its distribution range, with a marked decline in growth in drought-prone regions near the species' southernmost biogeographical limits. [Location] Europe (Spain, Italy, Romania). [Methods] We collected tree-ring ...


Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe

Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 3. (June 2004), pp. 366-380,


The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible consequences of climate change on a representative sample of forest herbs in Europe. A fuzzy climatic envelope was used to predict the location of suitable climatic conditions under two climatic change scenarios. Expected consequences in terms of lost and gained range size and shift in distribution for 26 forest herbs were estimated. These results were combined in an Index of Predicted Range Change for each species. Finally, the effects of habitat ...


Climate-induced forest dieback: an escalating global phenomenon?

Unasylva, Vol. 60, No. 231-232. (2009), pp. 43-49


Forests, which today cover 30 percent of the world’s land surface (FAO, 2006), are being rapidly and directly transformed in many areas by the impacts of expanding human populations and economies. Less evident are the pervasive effects of ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Recent examples of drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback (defined here as tree mortality noticeably above usual mortality levels) are being documented from all forested continents, making it possible ...


Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change



[Excerpt: Preface] This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science of climate change and continues to broaden the view of that science, following on from previous Working Group I assessments. The results presented here are based on the extensive scientific literature that has become available since completion of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, together with expanded data sets, new analyses, and more sophisticated climate modelling capabilities. [\n] This report has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures ...


The global methane budget 2000–2012

Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, No. 2. (12 December 2016), pp. 697-751,


The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety ...


Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 7. (18 May 2015), pp. 669-672,


Nature Climate Change | Letter Print Share/bookmark Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming Nathan G. McDowell & Craig D. Allen Affiliations Contributions Corresponding author Nature Climate Change 5, 669–672 (2015) Received 23 July 2014 Accepted 07 April ...


The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1. (2 December 2012), pp. 4-6,


The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term. ...


Wildfires in a warmer climate: emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, No. 7. (16 April 2016), pp. 3195-3223,


Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ...


Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming

Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 9, No. 4. (August 1998), pp. 469-476,


Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850), wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency. Simulations of present and future fire regimes, using daily outputs from the General Circulation Model (GCM), were in good agreement with recent trends observed ...


High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

Scientific Reports, Vol. 6 (27 July 2016), 30294,


The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate ...


The trouble with negative emissions

Science, Vol. 354, No. 6309. (14 October 2016), pp. 182-183,


In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of “negative emissions,” the ...


The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 3. (26 February 2014), pp. 164-166,


It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures are likely to rise above the 2 °C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate. ...


Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (10 October 2016), 201607171,


[Significance] Increased forest fire activity across the western United States in recent decades has contributed to widespread forest mortality, carbon emissions, periods of degraded air quality, and substantial fire suppression expenditures. Although numerous factors aided the recent rise in fire activity, observed warming and drying have significantly increased fire-season fuel aridity, fostering a more favorable fire environment across forested systems. We demonstrate that human-caused climate change caused over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and doubled the ...


The maximum climate ambition needs a firm research backing

Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7622. (28 September 2016), pp. 585-586,


We need to know what the 1.5 °C warming target will involve — even if we don’t reach it. [Excerpt] [...] The 2015 Paris climate agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the preindustrial level. But warming has already passed the 1-degree mark, and some estimates suggest that even if current commitments are fully implemented, they would allow temperatures to rise nearly 3 °C. If the 2-degree goal seems implausible, given current politics, 1.5 °C is ...


Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity

Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, No. 1. (2016), pp. 1-14,


Fire is an integral component of the Earth system that will critically affect how terrestrial carbon budgets and living systems respond to climate change. Paleo and observational records document robust positive relationships between fire activity and aridity in many parts of the world on interannual to millennial timescales. Observed increases in fire activity and aridity in many areas over the past several decades motivate curiosity as to the degree to which anthropogenic climate change will alter global fire regimes and subsequently ...


Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western U.S.?

Ecological Applications (August 2016),


Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across ...


GECO 2015 - Global energy and climate outlook: road to Paris

Vol. EUR 27239 EN (2015),


This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020" in the EU's Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, ...


  1. Arezki, R., Blanchard, O., 2014. Seven Questions about the Recent Oil Price Slump. .
  2. AR5 database, 2015. IPCC Assessment Report 5 database. .
  3. Assunção, J., Gandour, C., Rocha, R., 2015. Deforestation slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: prices or policies?. Environment and Development Economics, available on CJO2015. .
  4. BGR (German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources) 2013. Energy Study 2013.

Biomass collapse in Amazonian forest fragments

Science, Vol. 278, No. 5340. (7 November 1997), pp. 1117-1118,


Rain forest fragments in central Amazonia were found to experience a dramatic loss of above-ground tree biomass that is not offset by recruitment of new trees. These losses were largest within 100 meters of fragment edges, where tree mortality is sharply increased by microclimatic changes and elevated wind turbulence. Permanent study plots within 100 meters of edges lost up to 36 percent of their biomass in the first 10 to 17 years after fragmentation. Lianas (climbing woody vines) increased near edges ...


Climate confusion among U.S. teachers

Science, Vol. 351, No. 6274. (11 February 2016), pp. 664-665,


Although more than 95% of active climate scientists attribute recent global warming to human causes (1, 2) and most of the general public accepts that climate change is occurring, only about half of U.S. adults believe that human activity is the predominant cause (3), which is the lowest among 20 nations polled in 2014 (4). We examine how this societal debate affects science classrooms and find that, whereas most U.S. science teachers include climate science in their courses, their insufficient grasp ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 15

(February 2014)
Keywords: generalized-linear-models   genetic-adaptation   genetic-algorithms   genetic-conservation   genetic-correlations   genetic-differentiation   genetic-diversity   genetic-drift   genetic-resources   genetic-structure   genetic-variability   genetic-variation   genetically-modified-organism   genetics   genipa-americana   genomics   genotype-environment-interaction   genotypic-diversity   geobotany   geoffroea-decorticans   geographic-variation   geographical-range-limit   geographical-structure   geography-markup-language   geogrphical-range   geology   geomorphology   geonetwork   geopolitics   georgia   geospatial   geospatial-information-services   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   geostatistics   geothermal-energy   geranium-robertianum   germany   germination   ghg   gibberella-circinata   gibbsiella-quercinecans   gibraltar   ginkgo-biloba   ginkgoopsida   gis   glacial   glacial-refugia   glaciers   gleditsia-spp   gleditsia-triacanthos   gliricidia-sepium   glis-glis   global-biodiversity-information-facility   global-change   global-climate-models   global-scale   global-trend   global-warming   glossary   glyptostrobus-pensilis   gmelina-arborea   gnetopsida   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-make   gnu-octave   gnu-project   gnu-r   gold-open-access   google-scholar   government-policy   gplv2   gplv2orlater   gplv3   gplv3orlater   gplv3orlaterstatistics   graffenrieda-emarginata   grain   graph-theory   grass-gis   grass-gis-manual   grasslands   grazing   greece   green-alder   green-infrastructure   green-open-access   green-water   greenland   gregarina-typographi   gremmeniella-abietina   grevillea-robusta   gridded-data   ground-vegetation   groundwater   groundwater-table-depth   growing-stock   growth   growth-model   inrmm-list-of-tags  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations

Science, Vol. 331, No. 6015. (2011), pp. 324-327,


Uphill shifts of species' distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species' optimum elevations. This downhill shift is counter to what would be expected ...


Historical trends in lake and river ice cover in the Northern hemisphere

Science, Vol. 289, No. 5485. (2000), pp. 1743-1746,


Freeze and breakup dates of ice on lakes and rivers provide consistent evidence of later freezing and earlier breakup around the Northern Hemisphere from 1846 to 1995. Over these 150 years, changes in freeze dates averaged 5.8 days per 100 years later, and changes in breakup dates averaged 6.5 days per 100 years earlier; these translate to increasing air temperatures of about 1.2°C per 100 years. Interannual variability in both freeze and breakup dates has increased since 1950. A few longer ...


Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security

Science, Vol. 335, No. 6065. (2012), pp. 183-189,


Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 ...


The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera

Science, Vol. 333, No. 6040. (2011), pp. 332-335,


In western North America, snowpack has declined in recent decades, and further losses are projected through the 21st century. Here, we evaluate the uniqueness of recent declines using snowpack reconstructions from 66 tree-ring chronologies in key runoff-generating areas of the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri River drainages. Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north-south synchrony across the cordillera. Both the snowpack declines and their synchrony result ...


Will a warmer world be stormier?

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 4, No. 2. (2011), 291714


[Excerpt] Increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have almost certainly played a major role in the observed temperature increases of the 20th Century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Global climate model (GCM) projections suggest that continued 21st Century increases in greenhouse gases will further warm the climate by a few degrees. A temperature change this small may not seem very serious, since local weather can fluctuate by much more than this from ...


Host-specific insect herbivores as sensors of climate change in arctic and Alpine environments

Arctic and Alpine Research, Vol. 30, No. 1. (1998), pp. 78-83,


The distributions of host-specific herbivorous insects along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, particularly within arctic and alpine environments, provide useful analogs for predicted future changes that are likely to occur over time at any one location, given a gradually changing thermal environment. It is suggested that selected examples of these insect/plant systems can serve as highly responsive sensors of changing climatic temperatures. Distributions of insects that show a restricted occurrence within the overall range of their host plant are predicted to respond ...


Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo

Nature, Vol. 408, No. 6809. (9 November 2000), pp. 187-190,


Carbon uptake by forestation is one method proposed1 to reduce net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and so limit the radiative forcing of climate change2. But the overall impact of forestation on climate will also depend on other effects associated with the creation of new forests. In particular, the albedo of a forested landscape is generally lower than that of cultivated land, especially when snow is lying3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and decreasing albedo exerts a positive radiative ...


Europe’s forest management did not mitigate climate warming

Science, Vol. 351, No. 6273. (2016), pp. 597-600,


[Europe's managed forests contribute to warming] For most of the past 250 years, surprisingly it seems that Europe's managed forests have been a net source of carbon, contributing to climate warming rather than mitigating it. Naudts et al. reconstructed the history of forest management in Europe in the context of a land-atmosphere model. The release of carbon otherwise stored in litter, dead wood, and soil carbon pools in managed forests was one key factor contributing to climate warming. Second, the conversion of ...


Reviving extinct Mediterranean forest communities may improve ecosystem potential in a warmer future

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 13, No. 7. (2015), pp. 356-362,


The Mediterranean Basin is the region of Europe most vulnerable to negative climate-change impacts, including forest decline, increased wildfire, and biodiversity loss. Because humans have affected Mediterranean ecosystems for millennia, it is unclear whether the region’s native ecosystems were more resilient to climate change than current ecosystems, and whether they would provide sustainable management options if restored. We simulated vegetation with the LANDCLIM model, using present-day climate as well as future climate-change scenarios, in three representative areas that encompass a broad ...


BVOCs: plant defense against climate warming?

Trends in Plant Science, Vol. 8, No. 3. (16 June 2015), pp. 105-109,


Plants emit a substantial amount of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) into the atmosphere. These BVOCs represent a large carbon loss and can be up to ∼10% of that fixed by photosynthesis under stressful conditions and up to 100 g C m−2 per year in some tropical ecosystems. Among a variety of proven and unproven BVOC functions in plants and roles in atmospheric processes, recent data intriguingly link emission of these compounds to climate. Ongoing research demonstrates that BVOCs could protect ...


Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 366, No. 1885. (28 December 2008), pp. 4613-4626,


Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei ...


Climate-change ‘hiatus’ disappears with new data



US agency’s updated temperature records suggest that global warming continues apace. [Excerpt] An apparent pause in global warming might have been a temporary mirage, according to recent analysis. Global average temperatures have continued to rise throughout the first part of the 21st century, researchers report on 5 June in Science1. [\n] That finding, which contradicts the 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is based on an update of the global temperature records maintained by the US National Oceanic and ...


Tree-rings reflect the impact of climate change on Quercus ilex L. along a temperature gradient in Spain over the last 100 years

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 262, No. 9. (November 2011), pp. 1807-1816,


[Highlights] [::] We study the oak response to climate along a temperature gradient using tree-rings. [::] Stand competition history was reconstructed and growth trends discussed. [::] Just warmer stands have reduced productivity responding to water stress increase. [::] The relationship between growth and precipitation was non-linear (sigmoidal). [::] The sigmoid response reflected biogeographically meaningful thresholds. [Abstract] We analyzed tree rings over the past 100 years to understand the response of Quercus ilex L. to climate change at four different sites along a temperature gradient in a highly ...


Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus

Nature Geosci, Vol. 8, No. 6. (18 June 2015), pp. 445-449,


Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Niña-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the ...


Indian Ocean may be key to global warming 'hiatus'



Upper ocean may be storing heat, giving atmosphere a break. [Excerpt] The Indian Ocean may be the dark horse in the quest to explain the puzzling pause in global warming, researchers report on 18 May in Nature Geoscience. The study finds that the Indian Ocean may hold more than 70% of all heat absorbed by the upper ocean in the past decade. [\n] Scientists have long suspected that oceans have played a crucial role in the so-called warming hiatus by storing heat trapped ...


Climate warming will reduce growth and survival of Scots pine except in the far north

Ecology Letters, Vol. 11, No. 6. (2008), pp. 588-597,


Tree growth and survival were assessed in 283 populations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) originating from a broad geographic range and grown at 90 common-garden experimental sites across Europe, and in 101 populations grown at 14 sites in North America. Growth and survival were analysed in response to climatic transfer distance, the difference in mean annual temperature (MAT) between the site and the population origin. Differences among populations at each site, and across sites for regional groups of populations, were ...


Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 1. (5 August 2012), pp. 52-58,


Historical records of precipitation, streamflow and drought indices all show increased aridity since 1950 over many land areas1, 2. Analyses of model-simulated soil moisture3, 4, drought indices1, 5, 6 and precipitation-minus-evaporation7 suggest increased risk of drought in the twenty-first century. There are, however, large differences in the observed and model-simulated drying patterns1, 2, 6. Reconciling these differences is necessary before the model predictions can be trusted. Previous studies8, 9, 10, 11, 12 show that changes in sea surface temperatures have large ...


Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 12. (24 March 2015), pp. 3752-3757,


[Significance] As the climate warms, the carbon balance of arctic ecosystems will respond in two opposing ways: Plants will grow faster, leading to a carbon sink, while thawing permafrost will lead to decomposition and loss of soil carbon. However, thawing permafrost also releases nitrogen that fertilizes plant growth, offsetting some carbon losses. The balance of these processes determines whether these ecosystems will act as a stabilizing or destabilizing feedback to climate change. We show that this balance is determined by the rate ...


Forest pathogens with higher damage potential due to climate change in Europe

Canadian Journal of Plant Pathology, Vol. 30, No. 2. (1 April 2008), pp. 177-195,
Keywords: abies-alba   alnus-cordata   alnus-glutinosa   alnus-incana   alnus-viridis   alpine-region   armillaria-spp   biscogniauxia-mediterranea   biscogniauxia-nummularia   carpinus-betulus   castanea-sativa   ceratocystis-platani   climate-change   corylus-avellana   cryphonectria-parasitica   cupressus-arizonica   cupressus-macrocarpa   cupressus-sempervirens   diplodia-pinea   dothistroma-pini   dothistroma-septosporum   droughts   dutch-elm-disease   europe   fagus-sylvatica   forest-pests   global-warming   gremmeniella-abietina   heterobasidion   heterobasidion-abietinum   heterobasidion-annosum   leptographium-spp   megastigmus-wachtli   mycosphaerella-pini   oak-decline   olea-europaea   ophiostoma-novo-ulmi   ophiostoma-ulmi   phytophthora-alni   phytophthora-cinnamomi   phytophthora-polonica   picea-abies   pinus-banksiana   pinus-cembra   pinus-contorta   pinus-halepensis   pinus-nigra   pinus-pallasiana   pinus-pinaster   pinus-pinea   pinus-radiata   pinus-spp   pinus-sylvestris   platanus-spp   pseudotsuga   quercus-cerris   quercus-ilex   quercus-petraea   quercus-pubescens   quercus-robur   quercus-rotundifolia   quercus-spp   quercus-suber   scirrhia-pini   secondary-opportunistic-pest   seiridium-cardinale   seiridium-spp   silver-fir-decline   species-decline   sphaeropsis-sapinea   temperate-mountain-system   ulmus-glabra  


Abstract Most atmospheric scientists agree that climate changes are going to increase the mean temperature in Europe with increased frequency of climatic extremes, such as drought, floods, and storms. Under such conditions, there is high probability that forests will be subject to increased frequency and intensity of stress due to climatic extremes. Therefore, impacts of climate change on forest health should be carefully evaluated. Given these assumptions, several fungal diseases on trees may become more devastating because of the following factors: ...


Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change



[Excerpt: Preface] The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive ...


Expansion of geographic range in the pine processionary moth caused by increased winter temperatures

Ecological Applications, Vol. 15, No. 6. (December 2005), pp. 2084-2096,


Global warming is predicted to cause distributional changes in organisms whose geographic ranges are controlled by temperature. We report a recent latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, whose larvae build silk nests and feed on pine foliage in the winter. In north-central France (Paris Basin), its range boundary has shifted by 87 km northwards between 1972 and 2004; in northern Italy (Alps), an altitudinal shift of 110–230 m upwards occurred between 1975 and 2004. By experimentally ...


The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 [deg]C

Nature, Vol. 517, No. 7533. (8 January 2015), pp. 187-190,


Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2 °C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times. It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2). However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of ...

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