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Selection: with tag forecast [8 articles] 

 

Meteorological risk: extra-tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones and convective storms

  
In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 246-256

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] [::Partnership] Collaboration between forecast providers and end users in real time is essential during DRM, since the interpretation of the available information, the uncertainty associated with it and how this changes as new information becomes available should be made in consultation with qualified meteorologists and National Meteorological Services in particular. Information sharing, particularly observational, impact and warning data across national boundaries in real time, is of key importance. Improvements in forecasts will in part be driven by the interaction between fundamental atmosphere and ocean science with operational forecasting, so continued collaboration between forecasting centres and universities and ...

References

  1. AIR Worldwide, 2015. Preparing for Europe's Winter Storm Season with a Look Back at Niklas and Kyrill. http://www.air-worldwide.com/Publications/AIR-Currents/2015/Preparing-for-Europe-s-Winter-Storm-Season-with-a-Look-Back-at-Niklas-and-Kyrill/ .
  2. Anderson, G., Klugmann, D., 2014. A European lightning density analysis using 5 years of ATDnet data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14(4), 815-829.
  3. Antonescu, B., Schultz, D.M., Lomas, F., Kühne, T., 2016. Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the observational datasets. Monthly Weather Review.
  4. Bauer, P., Thorpe,
 

Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase

  
Nature Clim. Change, Vol. 4, No. 9. (20 September 2014), pp. 835-840, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2310

Abstract

The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with ...

 

El Niño tests forecasters

  
Nature, Vol. 508, No. 7494. (2 April 2014), pp. 20-21, https://doi.org/10.1038/508020a

Abstract

[Excerpt] As hints emerge of a major weather event this year, poor data could thwart attempts to improve predictions. The first sign of a brewing El Niño weather pattern came in January, as trade winds that normally blow from the east reversed course near Papua New Guinea. Barrelling back across the tropical Pacific Ocean, they began to push warm water towards South America. Now climate scientists and forecasters are on high alert. A major El Niño event — a periodic warming of waters ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 13

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: extrapolation-error   extreme-events   extreme-weather   f-script   fabaceae   factor-analysis   fagus-crenata   fagus-engleriana   fagus-grandifolia   fagus-hayatae   fagus-japonica   fagus-longipetiolata   fagus-lucida   fagus-mexicana   fagus-moesiaca   fagus-multinervis   fagus-orientalis   fagus-silvatica   fagus-spp   fagus-sylvatica   fagus-taurica   faidherbia-albida   fallopia-spp   false-observations-propagation   false-positive   family-heritability   fao-ecozones   faostat   fapar   feather-moss   featured-publication   feedback   feedforward-networks   fennoscandia   fertile-islands   fertilization   ficus-altissima   ficus-aurea   ficus-benghalensis   ficus-carica   ficus-citrifolia   ficus-elastica   ficus-macrophylla   ficus-religiosa   field-measurements   filbert   financial-modelling   fine-roots   finland   fir-decline   fire   fire-ecology   fire-emissions   fire-fuel   fire-regimes   fire-season   fire-severity   fise   fish-resources   fitness   fitzroya-cupressoides   flagship-species   flammability   flash-flood   fleshy-fruit   flood-control   flood-frequency   flood-tolerance   flooding-tolerance   floodplain   floodplain-forest   floods   flora   floss   flow-accumulation   flowering-period   flowering-phenology   fluvial   fodder-tree   foliage   food-plant   food-security   food-web   forecast   forest-bioeconomy   forest-biomass   forest-classification   forest-communities   forest-conservation   forest-conversion   forest-damage   forest-degradation   forest-disturbance   forest-dynamics   forest-ecology   forest-ecosystem   forest-ecosystems   forest-edges   inrmm-list-of-tags   postfire-recovery  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts

  
Vol. 48, No. EPFL-BOOK-172964. (2011)

Abstract

In alpine valleys with strong urban development, river training works for flood safety become more and more difficult to implement because of economic and environmental constraints. Thus flood management has a great importance especially in river basins equipped with storage power plants having a large retention potential. To reduce the flood risk in the Upper Rhone River basin in the Cantons of Vaud and Valais, the MINERVE flood forecast system was developed. It aims an optimized flood management by taking advantage ...

 

The Operational Global Icosahedral–Hexagonal Gridpoint Model GME: Description and High-Resolution Tests

  
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 130, No. 2. (1 February 2002), pp. 319-338, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0319:togihg>2.0.co;2

Abstract

Abstract The German Weather Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has recently developed a new operational global numerical weather prediction model, named GME, based on an almost uniform icosahedral?hexagonal grid. The GME gridpoint approach avoids the disadvantages of spectral techniques as well as the pole problem in latitude?longitude grids and provides a data structure extremely well suited to high efficiency on distributed memory parallel computers. The formulation of the discrete operators for this grid is described and evaluations that demonstrate their second-order accuracy are ...

 

The new ECMWF VAREPS (Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System)

  
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 133, No. 624. (April 2007), pp. 681-695, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.75
Keywords: europe   forecast   meteorology  

Abstract

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VAREPS) is a system designed to provide skilful predictions of small-scale, severe-weather events in the early forecast range, and accurate large-scale forecast guidance in the extended forecast range (say beyond forecast day 7). In this work, first the rationale behind VAREPS is presented, and then the performance of VAREPS with a truncation at forecast day 7, i.e. TL399L40(d0–7) and TL255L40(d7–15), is discussed and compared to the performance of ...

 

The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Methodology and validation

  
Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., Vol. 122, No. 529. (1 January 1996), pp. 73-119, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712252905
Keywords: ensemble   forecast   mathematics   meteorology  

Abstract

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) is described. In addition to an unperturbed (control) forecast, each ensemble comprises 32 10-day forecasts starting from initial conditions in which dynamically defined perturbations have been added to the operational analysis. The perturbations are constructed from singular vectors of a time-evolution operator linearized around the short-range-forecast trajectory. These singular vectors approximately determine the most unstable phase-space directions in the early part of the forecast period, and are estimated using ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/forecast

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.