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Selection: with tag extreme-events [39 articles] 


Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

New Phytologist, Vol. 178, No. 4. (1 June 2008), pp. 719-739,


Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced ...


Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436,<0427:tiewac>;2


Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...


Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

Science In Science, Vol. 289, No. 5487. (22 September 2000), pp. 2068-2074,


One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense ...


Global risk of deadly heat

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 7. (19 June 2017), pp. 501-506,


Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published ...


Annex III: glossary

In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465


[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...


Long-term changes in extreme air pollution meteorology and the implications for air quality

Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, No. 23792. (2016)


Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air ...


Simulating the impact of extreme heat and frost events on wheat crop production: a review

Field Crops research, Vol. 171 (2015), pp. 109-119,
Keywords: crop-yield   extreme-events   frost   heat-shock  


Extreme weather events (frost and heat shock), already a significant challenge for grain producers, are predicted to increase under future climate scenarios. This paper reviews the current knowledge on the impacts of extreme heat (heat shock) and frost on crop production and how these impacts are incorporated into contemporary process-based crop models. Heat shock and frost result in a range of physiological impacts on wheat. Based on the literature we conclude that the greatest impacts on production from frost are associated ...


Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change



[Excerpt: Preface] This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science of climate change and continues to broaden the view of that science, following on from previous Working Group I assessments. The results presented here are based on the extensive scientific literature that has become available since completion of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, together with expanded data sets, new analyses, and more sophisticated climate modelling capabilities. [\n] This report has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures ...


Uncertainties in projecting future changes in atmospheric rivers and their impacts on heavy precipitation over Europe

Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, No. 18. (24 June 2016), pp. 6711-6726,


This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multimodel ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large intermodel variability strongly correlated with the intermodel spread of historical near-surface westerly jet position. Under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), AR frequency is projected to increase significantly by the end of ...


Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 15. (19 May 2015), pp. 6193-6203,


Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative ...


Discussing the role of tropical and subtropical moisture sources in cold season extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region from a climate change perspective

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, No. 1. (27 January 2016), pp. 269-285,


This paper presents a review of a large number of research studies performed during the last few decades that focused on the investigation of cold season extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Mediterranean region (MR). The publications demonstrate the important role of anomalously intense transports of moist air from the tropical and subtropical Atlantic in the occurrence of EPEs in the MR. EPEs in the MR are directly or indirectly connected to narrow bands with a high concentration of moisture in ...


Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 119, No. 22. (27 November 2014), pp. 12,500-12,512,


An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is ...


On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894-2010)

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 22, No. 4. (2013), 493,


Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air ...


Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal

International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 26, No. 13. (15 November 2006), pp. 1741-1757,


The summer of 2003 was characterised by exceptional warm weather in Europe, particularly during the first two weeks of August, when a devastating sequence of large fires was observed, reaching an amount of circa 450 000 ha, the largest figure ever recorded in Portugal in modern times. They were concentrated in two relatively confined regions of Portugal and a considerable proportion of burnt area was due to fires started on the 2nd and 3rd of August. [\n] It is shown that the ...


A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003

Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 40, No. 4. (9 March 2010), pp. 267-306,


This paper reviews the European summer heat wave of 2003, with special emphasis on the first half of August 2003, jointly with its significant societal and environmental impact across Western and Central Europe. We show the pattern of record-breaking temperature anomalies, discuss it in the context of the past, and address the role of the main contributing factors responsible for the occurrence and persistence of this event: blocking episodes, soil moisture deficit, and sea surface temperatures. We show that the anticyclonic ...


Meteorology: air particles boost rain extremes

Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7620. (14 September 2016), pp. 282-282,


[Excerpt] As the climate warms, tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere may have a greater effect than greenhouse gases on increasing the frequency of extreme rain and snowfall. [\n] Greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols both drive extreme precipitation, which is expected to increase with climate change. [...] ...


Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols

Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 43, No. 18. (28 September 2016), 2016GL070869,


Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present-day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar ...


Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 28, No. 8. (2014), pp. 2015-2025,


Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous ...


Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest

Science, Vol. 323, No. 5919. (06 March 2009), pp. 1344-1347,


Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. ...


Will a warmer world be stormier?

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 4, No. 2. (2011), 291714


[Excerpt] Increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have almost certainly played a major role in the observed temperature increases of the 20th Century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Global climate model (GCM) projections suggest that continued 21st Century increases in greenhouse gases will further warm the climate by a few degrees. A temperature change this small may not seem very serious, since local weather can fluctuate by much more than this from ...


Adjustment of forest management strategies to changing climate

In Forest Management and the Water Cycle, Vol. 212 (2011), pp. 313-329,


Research work on the influence of global warming on forests predicts a rise in air temperature and changes in precipitation for a large part of Europe. Climate change has been forecast to increase runoff and nutrient leaching from the boreal catchments. Windiness, cloudiness and more frequent extreme-weather events are expected in the temperate region. The Mediterranean region is expected to suffer considerable impacts because of increased drought conditions. The need to understand and control the hydrological role of forests is rising, ...


Technical note: comparing and ranking soil drought indices performance over Europe, through remote-sensing of vegetation

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, No. 2. (12 February 2010), pp. 271-277,


In the past years there have been many attempts to produce and improve global soil-moisture datasets and drought indices. However, comparing and validating these various datasets is not straightforward. Here, interannual variations in drought indices are compared to interannual changes in vegetation, as captured by NDVI. By comparing the correlations of the different indices with NDVI we evaluated which drought index describes most realistically the actual changes in vegetation. Strong correlation between NDVI and the drought indices were found in areas ...


Response of vegetation to the 2003 European drought was mitigated by height

Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, No. 11. (4 June 2014), pp. 2897-2908,


The effects on climate of land-cover change, predominantly from the conversion of forests to crops or grassland, are reasonably well understood for low and high latitudes but are largely unknown for temperate latitudes. The main reason for this gap in our knowledge is that there are compensating effects on the energy and water balance that are related to changes in land-surface albedo, soil evaporation and plant transpiration. We analyse how vegetation height affected the response of vegetation during the 2003 European ...


Extreme hydrometeorological events and climate change predictions in Europe

Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 518 (October 2014), pp. 206-224,


[Highlights] [::] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. [::] Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. [::] Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. [::] Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. [::] Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. [Abstract] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over ...


Runoff production and erosion processes on a dehesa in Western Spain

Geographical Review, Vol. 92, No. 3. (2002), pp. 333-353,


Runoff generation and soil erosion were investigated at the Guadalperalon experimental watershed (western Spain), within the land-use system known as dehesa, or open, managed evergreen forests. Season and type of surface were found to control runoff and soil-loss rates. Five soil units were selected as representative of surface types found in the study area: hillslope grass, bottom grass, tree cover, sheep trails, and shrub cover. Measurements were made in various conditions with simulated rainfall to gain an idea of the annual ...


More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century

Science, Vol. 305, No. 5686. (13 August 2004), pp. 994-997,


A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America ...


Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change



[Excerpt: Preface] The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive ...


Large storm effects on total soil erosion

Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol. 46, No. 1. (01 January 1991), pp. 75-78


Soil erosion measurements on small upland watersheds totaling 229 watershed-years show that most of the total erosion occurring over a long-term period of record comes from a few large storms. Nine 1-ha (2.5-acre) watersheds containing residual soils with silt loam surfaces on B and C slopes were farmed under a corn-wheat-meadow-meadow rotation with moldboard plowing, disking, and harrowing in April of the corn years for seedbed preparation and cultivation for weed control. After corn harvest, stalks were disked prior to winter ...


Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

Nature, Vol. 512, No. 7515. (27 August 2014), pp. 416-418,


Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate1, 2, 3, 4. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts5, 6, 7. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures3, 4. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing ...


Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate

Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 125, No. 3-4. (2014), pp. 381-398,


With record breaking heat waves, dryness, and floods in several parts of the world in recent years the question arises whether and to what extent the hazard of hydrometeorological extreme weather events has changed, and if changes can be attributed to specific causes. The methodology of probabilistic event attribution allows to evaluate such potential changes in the occurence probabilities of particular types of extreme events. We show that such a probabilistic assessment not only provides information on changing hazards in hydrometerological ...


Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, No. 42. (10 October 2005), pp. 15144-15148,


Future drought is projected to occur under warmer temperature conditions as climate change progresses, referred to here as global-change-type drought, yet quantitative assessments of the triggers and potential extent of drought-induced vegetation die-off remain pivotal uncertainties in assessing climate-change impacts. Of particular concern is regional-scale mortality of overstory trees, which rapidly alters ecosystem type, associated ecosystem properties, and land surface conditions for decades. Here, we quantify regional-scale vegetation die-off across southwestern North American woodlands in 2002-2003 in response to drought and ...


Canopy recovery after drought dieback in holm-oak Mediterranean forests of Catalonia (NE Spain)

Global Change Biology, Vol. 10, No. 12. (December 2004), pp. 2092-2099,


Climate change is likely to produce more frequent and longer droughts in the Mediterranean region, like that of 1994, which produced important changes in the Quercus ilex forests, with up to 76% of the trees showing complete canopy dieback. At the landscape level, a mosaic of responses to the drought was observed, linked to the distribution of lithological substrates. Damage to the dominant tree species (Q. ilex) and the most common understorey shrub (Erica arborea) was more noticeable on the compact ...


Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations

Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, No. D19. (08 October 2008), D19105,


[1] Global warming is generally expected to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events, which may lead to more intense and frequent river flooding. This work assesses the implications of climate change for future flood hazard in Europe. Regional climate simulations from the HIRHAM model with 12-km horizontal resolution were used to drive the hydrological model LISFLOOD, and extreme value techniques were applied to the results to estimate the probability of extreme discharges. It was found that by the ...


The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters

Disasters, Vol. 30, No. 1. (March 2006), pp. 5-18,


Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change ...


Why soil erosion models over-predict small soil losses and under-predict large soil losses

CATENA, Vol. 32, No. 1. (February 1998), pp. 15-22,


Evaluation of various soil erosion models with large data sets have consistently shown that these models tend to over-predict soil erosion for small measured values, and under-predict soil erosion for larger measured values. This trend appears to be consistent regardless of whether the soil erosion value of interest is for individual storms, annual totals, or average annual soil losses, and regardless of whether the model is empirical or physically based. The hypothesis presented herein is that this phenomenon is not necessarily ...


Mechanism behind mega-heatwaves pinpointed



Two recent record hot spells traced to feedback loop between dry soils and trapped air. [Excerpt] The 'mega-heatwaves' that parched Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010 were exacerbated by a vicious feedback loop between soil and atmosphere, researchers report today in Nature Geoscience1. Drying ground added more heat into air close to Earth's surface, a process that repeated over time to produce record-breaking warmth that shrivelled crops, set forests ablaze and claimed tens of thousands of lives. Without the extraordinarily dry ...


Even for Slide-Prone Region, Landslide Was Off the Chart

Science, Vol. 344, No. 6179. (4 April 2014), pp. 16-17,


The rugged terrain inland of Seattle is prone to landslides. Yet the latest Oso landslide, which killed at least 27 people on 22 March, stands out as an anomaly. Calculations suggest that it flowed three times farther than slides of similar size and elevation drop, most likely due to the effect of heavy rains on the region's glacier-deposited soils. ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 13

(February 2014)
Keywords: extrapolation-error   extreme-events   extreme-weather   f-script   fabaceae   factor-analysis   fagus-crenata   fagus-engleriana   fagus-grandifolia   fagus-hayatae   fagus-japonica   fagus-longipetiolata   fagus-lucida   fagus-mexicana   fagus-moesiaca   fagus-multinervis   fagus-orientalis   fagus-silvatica   fagus-spp   fagus-sylvatica   fagus-taurica   faidherbia-albida   fallopia-spp   false-observations-propagation   false-positive   family-heritability   fao-ecozones   faostat   fapar   feather-moss   featured-publication   feedback   feedforward-networks   fennoscandia   fertile-islands   fertilization   ficus-altissima   ficus-aurea   ficus-benghalensis   ficus-carica   ficus-citrifolia   ficus-elastica   ficus-macrophylla   ficus-religiosa   field-measurements   filbert   financial-modelling   fine-roots   finland   fir-decline   fire   fire-ecology   fire-emissions   fire-fuel   fire-regimes   fire-season   fire-severity   fise   fish-resources   fitness   fitzroya-cupressoides   flagship-species   flammability   flash-flood   fleshy-fruit   flood-control   flood-frequency   flood-tolerance   flooding-tolerance   floodplain   floodplain-forest   floods   flora   floss   flow-accumulation   flowering-period   flowering-phenology   fluvial   fodder-tree   foliage   food-plant   food-security   food-web   forecast   forest-bioeconomy   forest-biomass   forest-classification   forest-communities   forest-conservation   forest-conversion   forest-damage   forest-degradation   forest-disturbance   forest-dynamics   forest-ecology   forest-ecosystem   forest-ecosystems   forest-edges   inrmm-list-of-tags   postfire-recovery  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

Nature, Vol. 500, No. 7462. (14 August 2013), pp. 287-295,


The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial ...

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Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.