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Selection: with tag extreme-events [59 articles] 

 

Extreme wildfire events are linked to global-change-type droughts in the northern Mediterranean

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, No. 3. (16 March 2018), pp. 847-856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018

Abstract

Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large and high-intensity wildfires. However, our understanding of the impact of increasing drought on extreme wildfires events remains incomplete. Here, we analyzed the weather conditions associated with the extreme wildfires events that occurred in Mediterranean France during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016. We identified that these fires were related to two distinct shifts in the fire weather space towards fire weather conditions that ...

 

Portugal wildfire management in a new era assessing fire risks, resources and reforms

  
(February 2018)

Abstract

[Executive summary] Portugal has one of the highest forest fire risk rankings in Europe. Fire researchers all point to the same combination of contributing factors: shifting demographics with population moving from rural to urban areas, changes in land use with more agricultural and forested areas left unattended and not being maintained, and fragmentation of land ownership patterns that discourage investment in forest management and fire planning. The trend of annual burned area for the last four decades confirms a new level in fire activity in Portugal, despite ...

References

  1. Almeida, J., Relvas, P., Silva, L., Catry, F., Rego, F., Santos, T. 2007. Portuguese lookout towers network optimization using automatic positioning algorithms. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Wildland Fire Conference, 13-17 May, Seville, Spain. https://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/sevilla-2007/contributions/doc/cd/SESIONES_TEMATICAS/ST4/Almeida_et_al_PORTUGAL.pdf .
  2. Beighley, M., Hyde, A. C., 2009. Systemic risk and Portugal's forest fire defense strategy - An assessment of wildfire management and response capability.
  3. Beighley, M., Quesinberry, M., 2004. USA-Portugal wildland fire technical
 

Droughts, floods, and wildfire

  
In Climate science special report: fourth national climate assessment, volume I (2017), pp. 231-253, https://doi.org/10.7930/J0CJ8BNN

Abstract

[Excerpt:Key findings] [::1] Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to ...

 

Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty

  
Keywords: adaptation   array-of-factors   biodiversity   biodiversity-impacts   burnt-area   climate-change   climate-extremes   communicating-uncertainty   data-transformation-modelling   data-uncertainty   downscaling   droughts   dynamic-system   ecosystem-resilience   emergent-property   euro-cordex   europe   extreme-events   extreme-weather   fire-damage   fire-danger-rating   fire-management   fire-weather-index   forest-fires   forest-management   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-scientific-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   human-behaviour   humidity   ipcc-scenarios   mastrave-modelling-library   mitigation   modelling-uncertainty   no-analog-pattern   peseta-series   precipitation   rcp85   resilience   resilience-vs-resistance   review   robust-modelling   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   scientific-communication   semantic-array-programming   spatial-pattern   species-richness   species-specific-effects   temperature   vegetation-changes   wildfires   wind  

Abstract

Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate. [\n] For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end ...

References

  1. de Rigo, D., Bosco, C., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Houston Durrant, T., Barredo, J. I., Strona, G., Caudullo, G., Di Leo, M., Boca, R., 2016. Forest resources in Europe: an integrated perspective on ecosystem services, disturbances and threats. In: San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Houston Durrant, T., Mauri, A. (Eds.), European Atlas of Forest Tree Species. Publ. Off. EU, Luxembourg, pp. e015b50+. https://w3id.org/mtv/FISE-Comm/v01/e015b50 .
  2. Alberdi Asensio, I., Baycheva-Merger, T., Bouvet, A., Bozzano,
 

Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections - Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

  
Vol. 28547 EN (2017), https://doi.org/10.2760/622174

Abstract

[Executive summary] This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the Peseta III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the Peseta III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe. [\n] The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most ...

 

Change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s - PESETA-3 project, final sector report on Task 9: Droughts

  
Vol. 28990 EN (2017), https://doi.org/10.2760/282880

Abstract

[Executive summary] This document reports the results of the analyses performed within the framework of the PESETA3 project regarding the Task 9 - Droughts. The main objective of this task is to provide robust scientific-based information to stakeholders and decision makers on the possible impacts of future climate scenarios on the occurrence of drought events. [\n] This report is focused on the analysis of the variations of soil moisture on the European continent, as well as of a soil moisture-based drought severity indicator ...

 

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

  
International Journal of Climatology (09 October 2017), https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5291

Abstract

As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized ...

 

Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first time

  
Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7685. (2017), pp. 291-292, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-017-08808-y

Abstract

Scientists take the bold step of saying phenomena wouldn’t have happened without global warming. [Excerpt] [...] Now, for the first time, climate researchers are reporting that some weather events would have been outright impossible without the warming influence of humanity’s greenhouse-gas emissions. [\n] This kind of confident assertion rarely makes its way into the scientific literature. Yet it appeared in three studies included in a special annual edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) dedicated to attributing the causes of ...

 

Anthropogenic forcings and associated changes in fire risk in Western North America and Australia during 2015-2016

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective, Vol. 99, No. 1. (January 2018), pp. S60-S64, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0096.1

Abstract

Extreme vapor pressure deficits (VPD) have been associated with enhanced wildfire risk. Using one model, we found for 2015/16 that human influences quintupled the risk of extreme VPD for western North America and increased the risk for extratropical Australia. [Excerpt: Introduction] In 2016, about 3.6 million hectares of land burned in the United States and Canada (NIFC 2017; NFD 2017). In Canada, a wildfire southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, caused the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta’s history and destroyed 2400 homes ...

 

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 12. (04 December 2017), pp. 2125-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017

Abstract

Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose ...

 

Spreading like wildfire

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 11. (November 2017), pp. 755-755, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3432

Abstract

The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come? [Excerpt] During January and February, Chile experienced what their president Michelle Bachelet called “The greatest forest disaster in our history”. The nation was not adequately equipped to tackle these fires, leading the government to enact a state of emergency and accept ...

 

How much does weather control fire size and intensity in the Mediterranean region?

  
Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 33, No. 7. (30 July 2015), pp. 931-939, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-33-931-2015

Abstract

This study investigates the synoptic conditions favorable to wildfires in the Mediterranean region, in terms of fire intensity and burnt area. As reported in the literature, Mediterranean large wildfires are associated with a blocking situation. However, this study shows the existence of two types of wildfires controlled by the blocking high intensity: (1) fast build-up of a weak blocking produces intense wildfires associated with strong winds which allow propagation over long distances; (2) longer build-up of strong blocking situation produces less ...

 

Size of wildfires in the Euro-Mediterranean region: observations and theoretical analysis

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 15, No. 6. (23 June 2015), pp. 1331-1341, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1331-2015

Abstract

MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite observations of fire size and ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis are used to derive a relationship between burnt area and wind speed over the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe. The largest wildfire size does not show a strong response with respect to wind speed in Eastern Europe. In the Mediterranean, as intuitively expected, the burnt area associated with the largest wildfires is an increasing function of wind speed for moderate temperature anomalies. In situations of severe heatwaves, ...

 

Daily synoptic conditions associated with large fire occurrence in Mediterranean France: evidence for a wind-driven fire regime

  
International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 37, No. 1. (January 2017), pp. 524-533, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4680

Abstract

Changes in wildfire activity in the Mediterranean area over recent decades increase the need for a better understanding of the fire–weather relationships and for the development of reliable models to improve fire danger prediction. This study analyses daily synoptic and local weather conditions associated with the occurrence of summer large fires (LFs) in Mediterranean France during recent decades (1973–2013). The links between large fire occurrence and synoptic conditions are analysed with composites of sea level pressure and winds at 925 hPa ...

 

Large wildland fires and extreme temperatures in Sardinia (Italy)

  
iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, Vol. 7, No. 3. (02 June 2014), pp. 162-169, https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor1090-007

Abstract

Heat-wave events are commonly recognized as adverse impacts on agriculture, forests, and economic activities. Several studies showed that future climate changes in the western Mediterranean Basin will lead to an increase in extreme weather events, mainly in the summer season. For this reason, it is crucial to improve our knowledge and investigate the effects of extreme temperature events on wildland fire activity. This work analyses the relation between high temperature days (air temperature higher than 25°C at 850hPa) and large wildland ...

 

The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

  
Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 67, No. 3-4. (June 2009), pp. 227-236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.013

Abstract

Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in ...

 

Meteorological risk: extra-tropical cyclones, tropical cyclones and convective storms

  
In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 246-256

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] [::Partnership] Collaboration between forecast providers and end users in real time is essential during DRM, since the interpretation of the available information, the uncertainty associated with it and how this changes as new information becomes available should be made in consultation with qualified meteorologists and National Meteorological Services in particular. Information sharing, particularly observational, impact and warning data across national boundaries in real time, is of key importance. Improvements in forecasts will in part be driven by the interaction between fundamental atmosphere and ocean science with operational forecasting, so continued collaboration between forecasting centres and universities and ...

References

  1. AIR Worldwide, 2015. Preparing for Europe's Winter Storm Season with a Look Back at Niklas and Kyrill. http://www.air-worldwide.com/Publications/AIR-Currents/2015/Preparing-for-Europe-s-Winter-Storm-Season-with-a-Look-Back-at-Niklas-and-Kyrill/ .
  2. Anderson, G., Klugmann, D., 2014. A European lightning density analysis using 5 years of ATDnet data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14(4), 815-829.
  3. Antonescu, B., Schultz, D.M., Lomas, F., Kühne, T., 2016. Tornadoes in Europe: Synthesis of the observational datasets. Monthly Weather Review.
  4. Bauer, P., Thorpe,
 

A new kind of drought: US record low windiness in 2015

  
IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 9 (2016), 1412470

Abstract

Widespread calming of the wind sapped U.S. wind energy power output in 2015, driven by the same weather patterns responsible for California’s severe drought. [Excerpt: Summary and conclusions] 2015 was a year of records: [::] It was the warmest year on record globally. [::] A highly anomalous ocean warming event in the northeast Pacific (NPM) strongly controlled the weather and climate over North America. [::] A high amplitude ridge of unparalleled strength and longevity over western North America dominated until April 2015. [::] Record low ...

 

Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 8. (24 July 2017), pp. 568-572, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 17) under a most likely emission scenario, we ...

 

Legal threat exposes gaps in climate-change planning

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7669. (29 August 2017), pp. 508-509, https://doi.org/10.1038/548508a

Abstract

Australian lawsuit highlights how difficult it is to turn global warming data into useful advice. [Excerpt] [...] Climate scientist Andy Pitman at the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in Sydney, Australia, says that researchers have been warning companies and governments for years about the need to invest in climate modelling and the related field of climate services, which provides forecasts and other information to public and private users. [...] To be useful, he says, the forecasts would need to be ...

 

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 178, No. 4. (1 June 2008), pp. 719-739, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x

Abstract

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced ...

 

Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:tiewac>2.3.co;2

Abstract

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...

 

Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

  
Science In Science, Vol. 289, No. 5487. (22 September 2000), pp. 2068-2074, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

Abstract

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense ...

 

Global risk of deadly heat

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 7. (19 June 2017), pp. 501-506, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Abstract

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published ...

 

Annex III: glossary

  
In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465

Abstract

[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...

 

Long-term changes in extreme air pollution meteorology and the implications for air quality

  
Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, No. 23792. (2016)

Abstract

Extreme air pollution meteorological events, such as heat waves, temperature inversions and atmospheric stagnation episodes, can significantly affect air quality. Based on observational data, we have analyzed the long-term evolution of extreme air pollution meteorology on the global scale and their potential impacts on air quality, especially the high pollution episodes. We have identified significant increasing trends for the occurrences of extreme air pollution meteorological events in the past six decades, especially over the continental regions. Statistical analysis combining air ...

 

Simulating the impact of extreme heat and frost events on wheat crop production: a review

  
Field Crops research, Vol. 171 (2015), pp. 109-119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.010
Keywords: crop-yield   extreme-events   frost   heat-shock  

Abstract

Extreme weather events (frost and heat shock), already a significant challenge for grain producers, are predicted to increase under future climate scenarios. This paper reviews the current knowledge on the impacts of extreme heat (heat shock) and frost on crop production and how these impacts are incorporated into contemporary process-based crop models. Heat shock and frost result in a range of physiological impacts on wheat. Based on the literature we conclude that the greatest impacts on production from frost are associated ...

 

Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2007)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science of climate change and continues to broaden the view of that science, following on from previous Working Group I assessments. The results presented here are based on the extensive scientific literature that has become available since completion of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, together with expanded data sets, new analyses, and more sophisticated climate modelling capabilities. [\n] This report has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures ...

 

Uncertainties in projecting future changes in atmospheric rivers and their impacts on heavy precipitation over Europe

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, No. 18. (24 June 2016), pp. 6711-6726, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0088.1

Abstract

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multimodel ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large intermodel variability strongly correlated with the intermodel spread of historical near-surface westerly jet position. Under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), AR frequency is projected to increase significantly by the end of ...

 

Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 15. (19 May 2015), pp. 6193-6203, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00779.1

Abstract

Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative ...

 

Discussing the role of tropical and subtropical moisture sources in cold season extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean region from a climate change perspective

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, No. 1. (27 January 2016), pp. 269-285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-269-2016

Abstract

This paper presents a review of a large number of research studies performed during the last few decades that focused on the investigation of cold season extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Mediterranean region (MR). The publications demonstrate the important role of anomalously intense transports of moist air from the tropical and subtropical Atlantic in the occurrence of EPEs in the MR. EPEs in the MR are directly or indirectly connected to narrow bands with a high concentration of moisture in ...

 

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 119, No. 22. (27 November 2014), pp. 12,500-12,512, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022098

Abstract

An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is ...

 

On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894-2010)

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 22, No. 4. (2013), 493, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf12003

Abstract

Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air ...

 

Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal

  
International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 26, No. 13. (15 November 2006), pp. 1741-1757, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1333

Abstract

The summer of 2003 was characterised by exceptional warm weather in Europe, particularly during the first two weeks of August, when a devastating sequence of large fires was observed, reaching an amount of circa 450 000 ha, the largest figure ever recorded in Portugal in modern times. They were concentrated in two relatively confined regions of Portugal and a considerable proportion of burnt area was due to fires started on the 2nd and 3rd of August. [\n] It is shown that the ...

 

A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003

  
Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 40, No. 4. (9 March 2010), pp. 267-306, https://doi.org/10.1080/10643380802238137

Abstract

This paper reviews the European summer heat wave of 2003, with special emphasis on the first half of August 2003, jointly with its significant societal and environmental impact across Western and Central Europe. We show the pattern of record-breaking temperature anomalies, discuss it in the context of the past, and address the role of the main contributing factors responsible for the occurrence and persistence of this event: blocking episodes, soil moisture deficit, and sea surface temperatures. We show that the anticyclonic ...

 

Meteorology: air particles boost rain extremes

  
Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7620. (14 September 2016), pp. 282-282, https://doi.org/10.1038/537282b

Abstract

[Excerpt] As the climate warms, tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere may have a greater effect than greenhouse gases on increasing the frequency of extreme rain and snowfall. [\n] Greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols both drive extreme precipitation, which is expected to increase with climate change. [...] ...

 

Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols

  
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, No. 18. (28 September 2016), pp. 9860-9868, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070869

Abstract

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present-day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar ...

 

Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

  
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 28, No. 8. (2014), pp. 2015-2025, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0891-6

Abstract

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous ...

 

Drought sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest

  
Science, Vol. 323, No. 5919. (06 March 2009), pp. 1344-1347, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1164033

Abstract

Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 14

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: errors   erwinia-amylovora   erwinia-salicis   eryobotria-japonica   erythrina-abyssinica   erythrina-poeppigiana   erythrina-sandwicensis   erythrina-variegata   escarpment   esdac   essential-oils   estonia   ethics   etics   eu-27   eucaliptus-camaldulensis   eucalyptus-camaldulensis   eucalyptus-citriodora   eucalyptus-coccifera   eucalyptus-diversicolor   eucalyptus-globulus   eucalyptus-gunii   eucalyptus-marginata   eucalyptus-nitens   eucalyptus-regnans   eucalyptus-spp   eucalyptus-todtiana   eucalyptus-viminalis   euclystis-spp   eucryphia-cordifolia   eugenia-malaccensis   euonymus-europaea   euonymus-europaeus   euonymus-latifolia   euonymus-spp   euonymus-verrucosa   euphorbia-austriaca   euproctis-chrysorrhoea   euro-cordex   europe   europe-2020   european-atlas-of-forest-tree-species   european-black-poplar   european-commission   european-conifer   european-council   european-parliament   european-research-council   european-soil-data-centre   european-union   euterpe-oleracea   eutrophication   evaporation   evapotranspiration   even-aged-forest   evergreen   evolution   evolutionary-techniques   evolutionary-tools   evonymus-europaea   ex-situ-conservation   exotic-plants   expat   experimental-approach   experimental-mathematics   expert-judgement   expert-parameterisation   expert-systems   extinction   extrapolation-error   extrapolation-uncertainty   extreme-events   extreme-frost   extreme-weather   f-script   fabaceae   factor-analysis   fagus-crenata   fagus-engleriana   fagus-grandifolia   fagus-hayatae   fagus-japonica   fagus-longipetiolata   fagus-lucida   fagus-mexicana   fagus-moesiaca   fagus-multinervis   fagus-orientalis   fagus-silvatica   fagus-spp   fagus-sylvatica   fagus-taurica   faidherbia-albida   falco-berigora   falco-tinnunculus   fallopia-spp   false-observations-propagation   false-positive   family-heritability   inrmm-list-of-tags  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Will a warmer world be stormier?

  
IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 4, No. 2. (2011), 291714

Abstract

[Excerpt] Increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have almost certainly played a major role in the observed temperature increases of the 20th Century, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Global climate model (GCM) projections suggest that continued 21st Century increases in greenhouse gases will further warm the climate by a few degrees. A temperature change this small may not seem very serious, since local weather can fluctuate by much more than this from ...

 

Adjustment of forest management strategies to changing climate

  
In Forest Management and the Water Cycle, Vol. 212 (2011), pp. 313-329, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9834-4_17

Abstract

Research work on the influence of global warming on forests predicts a rise in air temperature and changes in precipitation for a large part of Europe. Climate change has been forecast to increase runoff and nutrient leaching from the boreal catchments. Windiness, cloudiness and more frequent extreme-weather events are expected in the temperate region. The Mediterranean region is expected to suffer considerable impacts because of increased drought conditions. The need to understand and control the hydrological role of forests is rising, ...

 

Technical note: comparing and ranking soil drought indices performance over Europe, through remote-sensing of vegetation

  
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, No. 2. (12 February 2010), pp. 271-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-271-2010

Abstract

In the past years there have been many attempts to produce and improve global soil-moisture datasets and drought indices. However, comparing and validating these various datasets is not straightforward. Here, interannual variations in drought indices are compared to interannual changes in vegetation, as captured by NDVI. By comparing the correlations of the different indices with NDVI we evaluated which drought index describes most realistically the actual changes in vegetation. Strong correlation between NDVI and the drought indices were found in areas ...

 

Response of vegetation to the 2003 European drought was mitigated by height

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, No. 11. (4 June 2014), pp. 2897-2908, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2897-2014

Abstract

The effects on climate of land-cover change, predominantly from the conversion of forests to crops or grassland, are reasonably well understood for low and high latitudes but are largely unknown for temperate latitudes. The main reason for this gap in our knowledge is that there are compensating effects on the energy and water balance that are related to changes in land-surface albedo, soil evaporation and plant transpiration. We analyse how vegetation height affected the response of vegetation during the 2003 European ...

 

Extreme hydrometeorological events and climate change predictions in Europe

  
Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 518 (October 2014), pp. 206-224, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. [::] Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over the Western Basin. [::] Accumulated water vapour can feed Vb tracks and produce floods in Central Europe. [::] Greenhouse heating of water vapour increases Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature. [::] Higher SST augments torrential rains on Mediterranean coasts and islands in autumn. [Abstract] Summer storms around the Mediterranean are affected by land-use changes. Their loss leads to an accumulation mode of water vapour over ...

 

Runoff production and erosion processes on a dehesa in Western Spain

  
Geographical Review, Vol. 92, No. 3. (2002), pp. 333-353, https://doi.org/10.2307/4140914

Abstract

Runoff generation and soil erosion were investigated at the Guadalperalon experimental watershed (western Spain), within the land-use system known as dehesa, or open, managed evergreen forests. Season and type of surface were found to control runoff and soil-loss rates. Five soil units were selected as representative of surface types found in the study area: hillslope grass, bottom grass, tree cover, sheep trails, and shrub cover. Measurements were made in various conditions with simulated rainfall to gain an idea of the annual ...

 

More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century

  
Science, Vol. 305, No. 5686. (13 August 2004), pp. 994-997, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1098704

Abstract

A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America ...

 

Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2013)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive ...

 

Large storm effects on total soil erosion

  
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol. 46, No. 1. (01 January 1991), pp. 75-78

Abstract

Soil erosion measurements on small upland watersheds totaling 229 watershed-years show that most of the total erosion occurring over a long-term period of record comes from a few large storms. Nine 1-ha (2.5-acre) watersheds containing residual soils with silt loam surfaces on B and C slopes were farmed under a corn-wheat-meadow-meadow rotation with moldboard plowing, disking, and harrowing in April of the corn years for seedbed preparation and cultivation for weed control. After corn harvest, stalks were disked prior to winter ...

 

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

  
Nature, Vol. 512, No. 7515. (27 August 2014), pp. 416-418, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13625

Abstract

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate1, 2, 3, 4. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts5, 6, 7. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures3, 4. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/extreme-events

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Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.