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Selection: with tag environmental-modelling [at least 200 articles] 


Modelling post-fire soil erosion hazard using ordinal logistic regression: a case study in South-eastern Spain

Geomorphology, Vol. 232 (March 2015), pp. 117-124,


[Highlights] [::] A method to identify most vulnerable areas towards soil erosion has been proposed. [::] Slope steepness, aspect and fire severity were the inputs. [::] The field data were successfully fit to the model in 60% of cases after 50 runs. [::] North-facing slopes were shown to be less prone to soil erosion than the rest. [Abstract] Treatments that minimize soil erosion after large wildfires depend, among other factors, on fire severity and landscape configuration so that, in practice, most of them are applied according to ...


New temperature-based models for predicting global solar radiation

Applied Energy, Vol. 179 (October 2016), pp. 437-450,


[Highlights] [::] New temperature-based models for estimating solar radiation are investigated. [::] The models are validated against 20-years measured data of global solar radiation. [::] The new temperature-based model shows the best performance for coastal sites. [::] The new temperature-based model is more accurate than the sunshine-based models. [::] The new model is highly applicable with weather temperature forecast techniques. [Abstract] This study presents new ambient-temperature-based models for estimating global solar radiation as alternatives to the widely used sunshine-based models owing to the unavailability of sunshine data at ...


Archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems in Europe

Regional Environmental Change (2015), pp. 1-18,


Assessments of land-system change have dominantly focused on conversions among broad land-use categories, whereas intensity changes within these categories have received less attention. Considering that both modes of land change typically result in diverse patterns and trajectories of land-system change, there is a need to develop approaches to reduce this complexity. Using Europe as a case study, we applied a clustering approach based on self-organising maps and 12 land-use indicators to map (1) land-system archetypes for the year 2006, defined as ...


Linking plant strategies and plant traits derived by radiative transfer modelling

Journal of Vegetation Science (12 April 2017),


[Question] Do spatial gradients of plant strategies correspond to patterns of plant traits obtained from a physically based model and hyperspectral imagery? It has previously been shown that reflectance can be used to map plant strategies according to the established CSR scheme. So far, these approaches have been based on empirical links and lacked transferability. Therefore, we test if physically based derivations of plant traits may help in finding gradients in traits that are linked to strategies. [Location] A raised bog and minerotrophic fen ...


Building Rothermel fire behaviour fuel models by genetic algorithm optimisation

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 24, No. 3. (2015), 317,


A method to build and calibrate custom fuel models was developed by linking genetic algorithms (GA) to the Rothermel fire spread model. GA randomly generates solutions of fuel model parameters to form an initial population. Solutions are validated against observations of fire rate of spread via a goodness-of-fit metric. The population is selected for its best members, crossed over and mutated within a range of model parameter values, until a satisfactory fitness is reached. We showed that GA improved the performance ...


Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit

WIREs Clim Change, Vol. 8, No. 3. (1 May 2017), n/a,


Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modeling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of ‘model fit’; that is, how well model results ...


A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 12. (01 December 2016), 124013,


We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement ...


Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

Keywords: abies-alba   array-of-factors   artificial-neural-networks   bioclimatic-predictors   change-factor   climate-change   data-uncertainty   diversity   environmental-modelling   europe   extrapolation-uncertainty   featured-publication   forest-resources   free-scientific-knowledge   free-scientific-software   free-software   fuzzy   gdal   genetic-diversity   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integration-techniques   mastrave-modelling-library   maximum-habitat-suitability   modelling-uncertainty   multiplicity   peseta-series   python   regional-climate-models   relative-distance-similarity   robust-modelling   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   spatial-disaggregation   sres-a1b   supervised-training   unsupervised-training  


[::] In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, their complex interaction with climate change is not yet well understood. [::] The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. [::] Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). [::] Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as case study: a main European tree ...


  1. European Commission, 2013. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest based sector. No. COM(2013) 659 final. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. , INRMM-MiD:12642065 .
  2. European Commission, 2013. Commission staff working document accompanying the document: Communication from the commission to

Mapping wood production in European forests

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 357 (December 2015), pp. 228-238,


[Highlights] [::] We constructed high-resolution wood production maps for Europe. [::] Productivity, tree species and ruggedness affect wood production patterns. [::] Using these factors improves disaggregation of wood production statistics. [Abstract] Wood production is an important forest use, impacting a range of other ecosystem services. However, information on the spatial patterns in wood production is limited and often available only for larger administrative units. In this study, we developed high-resolution wood production maps for European forests. We collected wood production statistics for 29 European countries from ...


Do hypervolumes have holes?

The American Naturalist, Vol. 187, No. 4. (15 February 2016), pp. E93-E105,


Hypervolumes are used widely to conceptualize niches and trait distributions for both species and communities. Some hypervolumes are expected to be convex, with boundaries defined by only upper and lower limits (e.g., fundamental niches), while others are expected to be maximal, with boundaries defined by the limits of available space (e.g., potential niches). However, observed hypervolumes (e.g., realized niches) could also have holes, defined as unoccupied hyperspace representing deviations from these expectations that may indicate unconsidered ecological or evolutionary processes. Detecting ...


Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems

Nature, Vol. 449, No. 7159. (13 September 2007), pp. 213-217,


Humans and climate affect ecosystems and their services1, which may involve continuous and discontinuous transitions from one stable state to another2. Discontinuous transitions are abrupt, irreversible and among the most catastrophic changes of ecosystems identified1. For terrestrial ecosystems, it has been hypothesized that vegetation patchiness could be used as a signature of imminent transitions3, 4. Here, we analyse how vegetation patchiness changes in arid ecosystems with different grazing pressures, using both field data and a modelling approach. In the modelling approach, ...


Niches and distributional areas: concepts, methods, and assumptions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. Supplement 2. (17 November 2009), pp. 19644-19650,


Estimating actual and potential areas of distribution of species via ecological niche modeling has become a very active field of research, yet important conceptual issues in this field remain confused. We argue that conceptual clarity is enhanced by adopting restricted definitions of “niche” that enable operational definitions of basic concepts like fundamental, potential, and realized niches and potential and actual distributional areas. We apply these definitions to the question of niche conservatism, addressing what it is that is conserved and showing ...


What does ecological modelling model? A proposed classification of ecological niche models based on their underlying methods

Ecological Modelling, Vol. 222, No. 8. (01 April 2011), pp. 1343-1346,


Species distribution model is the term most frequently used in ecological modelling, but other authors used instead predictive habitat distribution model or species-habitat models. A consensual ecological modelling terminology that avoids misunderstandings and takes into account the ecological niche theory does not exist at present. Moreover, different studies differ in the type of niche that is represented by similar distribution models. I propose to use as standard ecological modelling terminology the terms “ecological niche”, “potential niche”, “realized niche” models (for modelling ...


The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions

Global Change Biology, Vol. 12, No. 12. (1 December 2006), pp. 2272-2281,


Climate envelope models (CEMs) have been used to predict the distribution of species under current, past, and future climatic conditions by inferring a species' environmental requirements from localities where it is currently known to occur. CEMs can be evaluated for their ability to predict current species distributions but it is unclear whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally successful in predicting distributions under different climates (i.e. different regions or time periods). We evaluated the ability of CEMs ...


Sample selection bias and presence-only distribution models: implications for background and pseudo-absence data

Ecological Applications, Vol. 19, No. 1. (January 2009), pp. 181-197,


Most methods for modeling species distributions from occurrence records require additional data representing the range of environmental conditions in the modeled region. These data, called background or pseudo-absence data, are usually drawn at random from the entire region, whereas occurrence collection is often spatially biased toward easily accessed areas. Since the spatial bias generally results in environmental bias, the difference between occurrence collection and background sampling may lead to inaccurate models. To correct the estimation, we propose choosing background data with ...


Habitat, environment and niche: what are we modelling?

Oikos, Vol. 115, No. 1. (October 2006), pp. 186-191,


The terms 'habitat', 'environment' and 'niche' are used inconsistently, and with some confusion, within the ecological literature on species distribution and abundance modelling. Here I suggest interrelated working definitions of these terms whereby the concept of habitat remains associated with descriptive/correlative analyses of the environments of organisms, while the niche concept is reserved for mechanistic analyses. To model the niche mechanistically, it is necessary to understand the way an organism's morphology, physiology, and especially behaviour, determine the kinds of environment it ...


BIOMOD - A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

Ecography, Vol. 32, No. 3. (1 June 2009), pp. 369-373,


BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions ...


Connecting models, data, and concepts to understand fragmentation's ecosystem-wide effects

Ecography, Vol. 40, No. 1. (January 2017), pp. 1-8,


[Excerpt: Conclusions] The body of experimental and theoretical work that has accumulated on the problem of habitat fragmentation has slowly matured over the years, and this Special Issue highlights this growth. Yet, it also provides a springboard to the new frontiers in fragmentation research. These areas include in particular the interplay between evolutionary and metacommunity dynamics with fragments, and this interface should be the subject of inquiry that integrates theory, experiment, and observation with resources at hand. New large-scale, experimental research should ...


Analyzing spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure across a Mediterranean fire-prone area

Natural Hazards In Natural Hazards, Vol. 71, No. 3. (2014), pp. 1389-1418,


We evaluated the spatiotemporal changes in wildfire regime and exposure in a fire-prone Mediterranean area (Sardinia, Italy) in relation to changes in ignition patterns, weather, suppression activities, and land uses. We also used wildfire simulations to identify fine-scale changes in wildfire exposure of important features on the island. Sardinia experienced a sharp reduction in fire number and area burned between the periods 1980–1994 and 1995–2009. Despite this decrease, losses and fatalities from wildfires continue. This suggests that localized areas and seasons ...


Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 187, No. 1. (2014), pp. 1-20,


In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame ...


Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

Ecological Processes In Ecological Processes, Vol. 1, No. 1. (2012), pp. 2-15,


[Introduction] Evaluating the environmental impacts of climate change on water resources and biological components of the landscape is an integral part of hydrologic and ecological investigations, and the resultant land and resource management in the twenty-first century. Impacts of both climate and simulated hydrologic parameters on ecological processes are relevant at scales that reflect the heterogeneity and complexity of landscapes. At present, simulations of climate change available from global climate models [GCMs] require downscaling for hydrologic or ecological applications. [Methods] Using statistically ...


Interpreting the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System

In Fourth Central Regional Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, Proceedings (1987), pp. 3-14


[Excerpt] [::] A presentation made at the Fourth Central Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, April 2, 1987, Winnipeg, Manitoba. [\n] Fire danger is defined by the Canadian Committee on Forest Fire Management (Merrill and Alexander 1987) as: [::] A general term used to express an assessment of both fixed and variable factors of the fire environment which determine the ease of ignition, rate of spread, difficulty of control and fire impact. [\n] The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is the national system for ...


Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Science, Vol. 310, No. 5752. (25 November 2005), pp. 1333-1337,


Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, “surplus land” ...


Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

(21 Sep 2016)


High resolution information of climatic conditions is essential to many application in environmental sciences. Here we present the CHELSA algorithm to downscale temperature and precipitation estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) climatic reanalysis interim (ERA-Interim) to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The algorithm for temperature is based on a statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperature from the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors such as wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, ...


CHELSA climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas (Version 1.1)



CHELSA_v1.1 ( is a high resolution (30 arc sec, ~1 km) climate data set for the earth land surface areas. It includes monthly and annual mean temperature and precipitation patterns as well as derived bioclimatic and interannual parameters for the time period 1979-2013. CHELSA_v1.1 is based on a quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling of the ERA interim global circulation model ( with a GPCC ( and GHCN ( bias correction. ...


Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System

Vol. 35 (1987)


The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System was first issued in 1970 after several years' work by a number of fire researchers in the Canadian Forestry Service. The best features of the former fire danger index were incorporated in the FWI, and a link was preserved between old and new. The FWI is based on the moisture content of three classes of forest fuel plus the effect of wind on fire behavior. The system consists of six components: three primary ...


Simple dynamical models capturing the key features of the Central Pacific El Niño

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 42. (18 October 2016), pp. 11732-11737,


[Significance] The Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) has been frequently observed in recent decades. The phenomenon is characterized by an anomalous warm sea surface temperature (SST) confined to the central Pacific and has different teleconnections from the traditional El Niño with major societal impact. Here, a simple modeling framework is developed and shown to capture the key mechanisms of the CP El Niño. In addition to the SST, other major characteristics of the CP El Niño such as the rising ...


The development of environmental thinking in economics

Environmental Values, Vol. 8, No. 4. (November 1999), pp. 413-435,


There has always been a sub-group of established economists trying to convey an environmental critique of the mainstream. This paper traces their thinking into the late 20th century via the development of associations and journals in the USA and Europe. There is clearly a divergence between the conformity to neo-classical economics favoured by resource and environmental economists and the acceptance of more radical critiques apparent in ecological economics. Thus, the progressive elements of ecological economics are increasingly incompatible with those practising ...


Fire behaviour knowledge in Australia: a synthesis of disciplinary and stakeholder knowledge on fire spread prediction capability and application



[Executive summary] This project undertook a survey of the fire behaviour knowledge currently used by operational fire behaviour analysts (FBANs) in Australia and New Zealand for the purpose of predicting the behaviour and spread of bushfires. This included a review of the science, applicability and validation of current fire behaviour models, an examination of the fire perimeter propagation software currently being used by FBANs, and a survey of those FBANs to determine current work practices when carrying out fire behaviour predictions. ...


A multi-criteria optimisation of scenarios for the protection of water resources in Europe: support to the EU blueprint to safeguard Europe's waters



A modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient ...


Analysis of the energetic flows through the SEBAL application to the assessment of the actual evapotranspiration in a Napa Valley vineyard California (USA)

In Clima e agricoltura: strategie di adattamento e mitigazione, Vol. 12 (June 2009), 56


The use of water resources is constantly growing in agriculture industry and the reduction of the this resource is due by both anthropogenic and climate factors. Under this perspective it is necessary to develop monitoring systems able to forecast the consumption of water. The knowledge of the actual water demand of a crop is therefore strategic for the rational use of resources and to improve the quality of the crop production. Recent applications of remote sensing in agriculture provide a valuable contribution to release this purpose, besides the integration of remotely sensed ...


Novel quantitative indicators to characterize the protective effect of mountain forests against rockfall

Ecological Indicators, Vol. 67 (August 2016), pp. 98-107,


[Highlights] [::] We modelled rockfall events on 3886 different forests located in all the French Alps. [::] We proposed two indicators to assess reductions of rockfall frequency and intensity. [::] We defined one indicator to evaluate the overall rockfall protection of each forest. [::] The indicators are easily and accurately predicted with three forest characteristics. [::] This approach has direct applications in forest management and rockfall assessment. [Abstract] Natural hazards are frequent in mountain areas where they regularly cause casualties and damages to human infrastructures. Mountain forests contribute ...


Modeling airborne laser scanning data for the spatial generation of critical forest parameters in fire behavior modeling

Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 86, No. 2. (30 July 2003), pp. 177-186,


Methods for using airborne laser scanning (also called airborne LIDAR) to retrieve forest parameters that are critical for fire behavior modeling are presented. A model for the automatic extraction of forest information is demonstrated to provide spatial coverage of the study area, making it possible to produce 3-D inputs to improve fire behavior models. [\n] The Toposys I airborne laser system recorded the last return of each footprint (0.30–0.38 m) over a 2000 m by 190 m flight line. Raw data ...


Development of a framework for fire risk assessment using remote sensing and geographic information system technologies

Ecological Modelling, Vol. 221, No. 1. (10 January 2010), pp. 46-58,


Forest fires play a critical role in landscape transformation, vegetation succession, soil degradation and air quality. Improvements in fire risk estimation are vital to reduce the negative impacts of fire, either by lessen burn severity or intensity through fuel management, or by aiding the natural vegetation recovery using post-fire treatments. This paper presents the methods to generate the input variables and the risk integration developed within the Firemap project (funded under the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology) to map wildland ...


Integrating geospatial information into fire risk assessment

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 23, No. 5. (2014), 606,


Fire risk assessment should take into account the most relevant components associated to fire occurrence. To estimate when and where the fire will produce undesired effects, we need to model both (a) fire ignition and propagation potential and (b) fire vulnerability. Following these ideas, a comprehensive fire risk assessment system is proposed in this paper, which makes extensive use of geographic information technologies to offer a spatially explicit evaluation of fire risk conditions. The paper first describes the conceptual model, then ...


Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 28, No. 8. (2014), pp. 2015-2025,


Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous ...


Wildfire modeling in GRASS GIS

(April 2014)


[Description] This paper introduces implementation of wildfire modeling tool for GRASS GIS named based on existing r.ros and r.spread modules which were reviewed as part of this project. The new tools was tested in the Lewis Mountain study area in Shenandoah National Park in Virginia and compared to an actual fire which happened in the area in April 2006. [Excerpt: Introduction] The core of wildre spread modeling in GRASS GIS [Neteler et al. 2012] consists of two modules r.ros and r.spread [Xu 1994]. ...


  1. Anderson, H.E., 1982. Aids to determining fuel models for estimating fire behavior. In: The Bark Beetles, Fuels, and Fire Bibliography, p.143. , INRMM-MiD:12114185 .
  2. Clements, C.B., Perna, R., Jang, M., Lee, D., Patel, M., Street, S., Zhong, S., Goodrick, S., Li, J., Potter, B.E., Bian, X., 2007. Observing the dynamics of wildland grass fires: FireFlux-A field validation experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88(9), 1369-1382. .

Size asymmetry of resource competition and the structure of plant communities

Journal of Ecology, Vol. 104, No. 4. (July 2016), pp. 899-910,


Plant communities show two general responses to gradients of soil resources: a decrease in species richness at high levels of resource availability and an associated shift in species composition from small and slow-growing species to large and fast-growing species. Models attempting to explain these responses have usually focused on a single pattern and provided contradicting predictions concerning the underlying mechanisms. [\n] We use an extension of Tilman's resource competition model to investigate the hypothesis that both patterns may ...


Size asymmetry of resource competition and the structure of plant communities: commentary on DeMalach et al 2016

Journal of Ecology, Vol. 104, No. 4. (July 2016), pp. 911-912,


[Excerpt] The hump-back relationship between diversity and productivity is one of the well-known patterns in ecology that have defied unequivocal explanation (Mittelbach et al. 2001; Šímová, Li & Storch 2013). While it has often been argued that the decline of species richness under high productivity is due to more intense competition, it has never been made fully clear why extinction under high productivity should be more likely compared to low productivity. DeMalach et al. (2016) present a simple and elegant explanation: it ...


A climate-based model to predict potential treeline position around the globe

Alpine Botany, Vol. 124, No. 1. (2014), pp. 1-12,


In situ temperature measurements revealed that the position of the high-elevation treeline is associated with a minimum seasonal mean air temperature within a temperature-defined minimum season length across latitudes. Here, we build upon this experience and present the results of a global statistical analysis and a predictive model for low temperature treeline positions. We identified 376 natural treelines from satellite images across the globe, and searched for their closest climatic proxies using a climate database. The analysis included a snow and ...


Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory

EFSA Supporting Publications, Vol. 13, No. 8. (1 August 2016), pp. n/a-n/a,


This report demonstrates a probabilistic quantitative pathway analysis model that can be used in risk assessment for plant pest introduction into EU territory on a range of edible commodities (apples, oranges, stone fruits and wheat). Two types of model were developed: a general commodity model that simulates distribution of an imported infested/infected commodity to and within the EU from source countries by month; and a consignment model that simulates the movement and distribution of individual consignments from source countries to destinations in the EU. The general ...


Development of probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pests introduction for the EU territory

EFSA Supporting Publications, Vol. 12, No. 9. (1 September 2015), pp. n/a-n/a,


The aim of this report is to provide EFSA with probabilistic models for quantitative pathway analysis of plant pest introduction for the EU territory through non-edible plant products or plants. [\n] We first provide a conceptualization of two types of pathway models. The individual based PM simulates an individual consignment (or a population of such consignment) by describing the stochastic change in the state of the individual consignment over time and space. The flow-based PM, simulates the flow of infested product over ...


MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions (30 May 2016), pp. 1-38,


Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of time scale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim ...


Linking ecological information and radiative transfer models to estimate fuel moisture content in the Mediterranean region of Spain: solving the ill-posed inverse problem

Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 113, No. 11. (16 November 2009), pp. 2403-2411,


Live fuel moisture content (FMC) is a key factor required to evaluate fire risk and its operative and accurate estimation is essential for allocating pre-fire resources as a part of fire prevention. This paper presents an operative and accurate procedure to estimate FMC though MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectrometer) data and simulation models. The new aspects of the method are its consideration of several ecological criteria to parameterize the models and consistently avoid simulating unrealistic spectra which might produce indetermination (ill-posed) ...


Evaluation of optical remote sensing to estimate actual evapotranspiration and canopy conductance

Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 129 (February 2013), pp. 250-261,


[Abstract] We compared estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) produced with six different vegetation measures derived from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and three contrasting estimation approaches using measurements from eddy covariance flux towers at 16 FLUXNET sites located over six different land cover types. The aim was to assess optimal approaches in using optical remote sensing to estimate ET. The first two approaches directly regressed various MODIS vegetation indices (VIs) and products such as leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of ...


Predicting plant species richness in a managed forest

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 180, No. 1-3. (July 2003), pp. 583-593,


This paper describes an attempt to predict ground flora species richness under various forest management scenarios. The approach is based on a geographic information system (GIS) and uses three standard map layers of topography, soils and stands to derive environmental gradients of light, nutrients, water and disturbance. A simple floristic survey provides the data necessary to relate plant distribution with environmental variables. The potential distribution of 60 understorey plant species is modelled based on the four derived gradients. The sum of ...


Predicting the impacts of edge effects in fragmented habitats

Biological Conservation, Vol. 55, No. 1. (1991), pp. 77-92,


We propose a protocol for assessing the ecological impacts of edge effects in fragments of natural habitat surrounded by induced (artificial) edges. The protocol involves three steps: (1) identification of focal taxa of particular conservation or management interest, (2) measurement of an ‘edge function’ that describes the response of these taxa to induced edges, and (3) use of a ‘Core-Area Model’ to extrapolate edge function parameters to existing or novel situations. The Core-Area Model accurately estimates the total area of pristine ...


Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 24, No. 1. (2015), 14,


We related measurements of annual burned area in the southwest United States during 1984–2013 to records of climate variability. Within forests, annual burned area correlated at least as strongly with spring–summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as with 14 other drought-related metrics, including more complex metrics that explicitly represent fuel moisture. Particularly strong correlations with VPD arise partly because this term dictates the atmospheric moisture demand. Additionally, VPD responds to moisture supply, which is difficult to measure and model regionally due to ...


Solar radiation and forest fuel moisture

Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol. 67, No. 4. (1943), pp. 149-176


A major contribution to progress in forest fire prevention and control during the past 10 years has been the development and widespread application of methods of rating forest fire danger. Fire danger rating systems are now in use in all the forest regions of the United States. They have been described by Gisborne, Brown and Davis, Curry et al., Matthews, Jemison, and others. Under each of these systems the major factors affecting fire danger are measured and the measurements are integrated ...


Near-global freshwater-specific environmental variables for biodiversity analyses in 1 km resolution

Scientific Data, Vol. 2 (8 December 2015), 150073,


The lack of freshwater-specific environmental information at sufficiently fine spatial grain hampers broad-scale analyses in aquatic biology, biogeography, conservation, and ecology. Here we present a near-global, spatially continuous, and freshwater-specific set of environmental variables in a standardized 1 km grid. We delineate the sub-catchment for each grid cell along the HydroSHEDS river network and summarize the upstream climate, topography, land cover, surface geology and soil to each grid cell using various metrics (average, minimum, maximum, range, sum, inverse distance-weighted average and sum). ...

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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.