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Selection: with tag dynamic-system [14 articles] 


Economic value of ecological information in ecosystem-based natural resource management depends on exploitation history

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 7. (13 February 2018), pp. 1658-1663,


[Significance] Natural resource management is evolving toward a more holistic approach that acknowledges ecological connections among species. To date, there has been no demonstration of where or when this approach provides economic benefits. Here we find only modest economic benefits from having detailed knowledge of ecological linkages between species. However, the costs of incomplete or incorrect knowledge are unevenly distributed across user groups and are greater after historical overfishing. The ecosystem approach to natural resource management might therefore provide the greatest benefit ...


Fire-induced deforestation in drought-prone Mediterranean forests: drivers and unknowns from leaves to communities

Ecological Monographs (22 January 2018),


Over the past 15 years, 3 million hectares of forests have been converted into shrublands or grasslands in the Mediterranean countries of the European Union. Fire and drought are the main drivers underlying this deforestation. Here we present a conceptual framework for the process of fire-induced deforestation based on the interactive effects of fire and drought across three hierarchical scales: resistance in individuals, resilience in populations, and transitions to a new state. At the individual plant level, we review the traits ...


Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty

Keywords: adaptation   array-of-factors   biodiversity   biodiversity-impacts   burnt-area   climate-change   climate-extremes   communicating-uncertainty   data-transformation-modelling   data-uncertainty   downscaling   droughts   dynamic-system   ecosystem-resilience   emergent-property   euro-cordex   europe   extreme-events   extreme-weather   fire-damage   fire-danger-rating   fire-management   fire-weather-index   forest-fires   forest-management   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-scientific-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   human-behaviour   humidity   ipcc-scenarios   mastrave-modelling-library   mitigation   modelling-uncertainty   no-analog-pattern   peseta-series   precipitation   rcp85   resilience   resilience-vs-resistance   review   robust-modelling   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   scientific-communication   semantic-array-programming   spatial-pattern   species-richness   species-specific-effects   temperature   vegetation-changes   wildfires   wind  


Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate. [\n] For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end ...


  1. de Rigo, D., Bosco, C., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Houston Durrant, T., Barredo, J. I., Strona, G., Caudullo, G., Di Leo, M., Boca, R., 2016. Forest resources in Europe: an integrated perspective on ecosystem services, disturbances and threats. In: San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Houston Durrant, T., Mauri, A. (Eds.), European Atlas of Forest Tree Species. Publ. Off. EU, Luxembourg, pp. e015b50+. .
  2. Alberdi Asensio, I., Baycheva-Merger, T., Bouvet, A., Bozzano,

Understanding systems science: a visual and integrative approach

Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Vol. 30, No. 5. (September 2013), pp. 580-595,


Systems thinking is considered a much-needed competence to deal better with an increasingly interlinked and complex world. The many streams within systems science have diversified perspectives, theories and methods, but have also complicated the field as a whole. This makes it difficult to understand and master the field. Short introductions to fundamental questions of systems science are rare. This paper is divided into three parts and aims to do the following: (1) to provide a broad overview of the structure and ...


System dynamics, the basic elements of

In Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (2009), pp. 856-862,


[Excerpt: Glossary] [::Endogenous] Generated from within. Contrasting with “exogenous,” meaning generated by forces external to a system or point of view. [::Feedback loop] A closed path of causal influences and information, forming a circular-causal loop of information and action. [::System dynamics] System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to theory-building, policy analysis and strategic decision support emerging from an endogenous point of view. [Definition of the Subject] System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to theory building, policy analysis, and strategic decision support emerging from an endogenous point of view [...]. It applies to dynamic problems arising in ...



In Complex dynamical systems in education - Concepts, methods and applications (2016), pp. 395-404,


[Excerpt] [...] [::Complex Dynamic Systems Theory] The theory that describes how open or closed systems develop through complex processes in which the behavior of the system in its entirety cannot be reduced to the behavior of individual elements of that system. [\n] [...] [::Dynamical System] A system that changes over time. At any given time, the system is in a particular state, and follows an evolution rule that describes how it changes states over time. Generally, a continuous dynamical system will be described by differential equations. [\n] [...] [::Emergent Behavior] Aggregate-level attributes of ...


Regulation and stability of host-parasite population interactions: II - Destabilizing processes

Journal of Animal Ecology, Vol. 47, No. 1. (February 1978), pp. 249-267,


[::1] Three categories of biological processes are shown to have a destabilizing influence on the dynamical behaviour of model host-parasite associations: parasite induced reduction in host reproductive potential, parasite reproduction within a host which directly increases parasite population size and time delays in parasite reproduction and transmission. [::2] The importance of parasitic species as regulators of host population growth is examined in light of empirical evidence. Data from two particular laboratory studies used to indicate the magnitude of this regulatory influence. ...


The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: what have we learned in 20 years?

Ecology Letters, Vol. 16 (1 May 2013), pp. 4-16,


Over the past 20 years, major advances have clarified how ecological patterns inform theory, and how in turn theory informs applied ecology. Also, there has been an increased recognition that the problem of scale at which ecological processes should be considered is critical if we are to produce general predictions. Ecological dynamics is always stochastic at small scales, but variability is conditional on the scale of description. The radical changes in the scope and aims of ecology over the past decades reflect ...


The population dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 291, No. 1054. (27 April 1981), pp. 451-524,


We show how directly transmitted microparasites, broadly defined to include viruses, bacteria, protozoans and fungi, may regulate natural populations of invertebrate hosts. The study combines elements of conventional epidemiology (where the host population is assumed constant) with elements of prey-predator studies (which conventionally emphasize how prey and predator populations may be regulated by their interaction). To this end, we construct simple models embodying the essentials of the dynamical interaction between invertebrate hosts and their directly transmitted microparasites. In successive refinements, these ...


The drought code component of the Canadian forest fire behavior system

Vol. 1316 (1972)


Development of the Drought Code component of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior System is described. The scale of available moisture used in the original Stored Moisture Index developed for coastal British Columbia was transformed to one of cumulative drying and incorporated as a component of the National Index. Drought Code values are related to availability of surface water, and to fire behavior and effects. Procedures are developed for improving estimated starting values, taking into account the carry-over of drought from the ...


Behavioral self-organization underlies the resilience of a coastal ecosystem

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 30. (25 July 2017), pp. 8035-8040,


[Significance] Theoretical models suggest that spatial self-organization enhances the resistance of ecosystems to disturbance. However, experiments investigating this important prediction are lacking. Our paper provides clear experimental evidence that spatial self-organization profoundly increases the ability of ecosystems to persist in the face of disturbance. The mechanisms underlying this positive impact of self-organization are driven by the combination of ecological and behavioral processes. Specifically, large-scale banded patterns in mussel beds created by ecological feedback processes facilitate fast behavioral aggregation of individual mussels into ...


Regular patterns link individual behavior to population persistence

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 30. (25 July 2017), pp. 7747-7749,


[Excerpt] Resisting and recovering from disturbances is a necessity for most species. The strategy is sometimes collective, depending on the aggregation of interacting individuals into regular patterns. However, relating patterns of abundance across scales to both individual behavior and population persistence remains a major challenge for ecology. Such patterns are found in many ecosystems, ranging from microbes to forests, with their regularity taking the form of evenly sized and spaced bands and patches of aggregated individuals. Regular patterns are said to ...


System crash as dynamics of complex networks

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 42. (18 October 2016), pp. 11726-11731,


[Significance] System crash, as an essential part of system evolution, sometimes happens in peculiar manners: Weakened systems may survive for a surprisingly long time before suddenly meeting their final ends, whereas seemingly unbeatable giants may drastically crash to virtual nonexistence. We propose a model that describes system crash as a consequence of some relatively simple local information-based individual behaviors: Individuals leave networks according to some most straightforward assessment of current and future benefits/risks. Of note, such a simple rule may enable a ...


Simple dynamical models capturing the key features of the Central Pacific El Niño

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 42. (18 October 2016), pp. 11732-11737,


[Significance] The Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) has been frequently observed in recent decades. The phenomenon is characterized by an anomalous warm sea surface temperature (SST) confined to the central Pacific and has different teleconnections from the traditional El Niño with major societal impact. Here, a simple modeling framework is developed and shown to capture the key mechanisms of the CP El Niño. In addition to the SST, other major characteristics of the CP El Niño such as the rising ...

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