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Selection: with tag dry-spells [7 articles] 


Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436,<0427:tiewac>;2


Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...


Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

Science In Science, Vol. 289, No. 5487. (22 September 2000), pp. 2068-2074,


One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense ...


Relating changes in duff moisture to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System in Populus tremuloides stands in Elk Island National Park

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 37, No. 10. (1 October 2007), pp. 1987-1998


The manner in which trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forest duff moisture changes during the growing season was investigated in Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada. A calibration–validation procedure incorporating one calibration site with moisture sampling across three topographic positions was used to develop predictive models, which were subsequently compared with 12 validation sites across three vegetation types throughout the Park. Duff moisture was modelled against the Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index ...


A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80)

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 4. (1 April 1988), pp. 441-452,<0441:asotro>;2


The relation between meteorological variables and the monthly area burned by wildfire from May to August 1953–80 in nine Canadian “provinces” was investigated. A purely statistical approach to estimating the monthly provincial area burned, using meteorological variables as predictors, succeeded in explaining 30% of the variance west of Lake Nipigon and about 11% east of Lake Nipigon. [\n] Long sequences of days with less than 1.5 mm of rain or days with relative humidities less than 60% proved to have the highest ...


Characterizing extreme fire and weather events in the Boreal Shield ecozone of Ontario

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 133, No. 1-4. (November 2005), pp. 5-16,


Fire frequency is the most commonly used measure to characterize fire regimes for comparisons across geographical areas or time periods. Within the boreal forest region of the Boreal Shield ecozone of Ontario, fire frequency changes over time and across longitudinal gradients have been associated with drought frequency and large-scale climate processes. While providing evidence that fire regimes differ across areas of the Boreal Shield, fire frequency alone provides little insight into the potential for extreme fire events and the extreme fire ...


Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District

Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 90, No. 8. (25 June 2009), pp. 2642-2651,


Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. A probit model is used to assess the chance of fires at different times of the year, days of the week ...


Climate extremes and the carbon cycle

Nature, Vol. 500, No. 7462. (14 August 2013), pp. 287-295,


The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial ...

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