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Selection: with tag decision-making [30 articles] 


Global environmental issues and the emergence of Second Order Science

Vol. 12803 (1990)


[Excerpt: Introduction] The fundamental achievements of science, like those of all creative activities, have a timeless quality. The social activity of science, like any other, evolves in response to its changing circumstances, in its objects, methods and social functions. In the high Middle Ages, the independence of secular learning was established in the universities, removed from the monasteries; and the boundary between the sacred and private on the one hand, and the secular and public on the other, was set for ...


Italy rebuked for failure to prevent olive-tree tragedy

Nature, Vol. 546, No. 7657. (7 June 2017), pp. 193-194,


European Commission reveals widespread delays by the country’s authorities to halt spread of deadly plant disease. [Excerpt] A vicious pathogen that is destroying historic olive groves in Puglia, southern Italy, is marching north and threatens to reach the rest of Europe. Yet Italian authorities last year failed to track the infection’s spread, and didn’t follow containment plans agreed with the European Commission, according to an audit released last week by the commission. [...] The pathogen — for which there is no cure ...


Collaborative influence - Develop five skills

Leadership Excellence, Vol. 22, No. 3. (March 2005), pp. 20-20


[Excerpt] Organizations live or die on relationships. Your ability to create successful collaborative relationships can make or break your career. Effective executives have one skill in common — collaborative influence — the ability to get things done by getting people to collaborate and building strong collaborative networks. [Five Essential Skills] Five skills are essential to increasing your collaborative influence. [::1. Collaborative Intention] Maintaining a non-defensive presence and making a conscious personal commitment to seeking mutual gains in your relationships. [...] [::2. Truthfulness] Committing to ...


Review of the main developments in the analytic hierarchy process

Expert Systems with Applications (May 2011),


[Abstract] In this paper the authors review the developments of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) since its inception. The focus of this paper is a neutral review on the methodological developments rather than reporting its applications that have appeared since its introduction. In particular, we discuss problem modelling, pair-wise comparisons, judgement scales, derivation methods, consistency indices, incomplete matrix, synthesis of the weights, sensitivity analysis and group decisions. All have been important areas of research in AHP. [Highlights] [::] Methodological developments of the analytic hierarchy ...


Towards a web-based collaborative weighting method in project

In IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (2002), 6,


For the purpose of a product design or a project in general, weighting a set of comparable criteria has been proven to be of utmost importance (e.g. weighting product functions in value analysis - VA -, and allocating a budget in a Design-To-Cost project). Moreover the weighting problem is related to basic properties in the field of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) through the notions of ordinal transitivity and rationality in the designers' mind. How should designers or project agents decide in ...


Uncalculating cooperation is used to signal trustworthiness

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 31. (02 August 2016), pp. 8658-8663,


[Significance] Human prosociality presents an evolutionary puzzle, and reciprocity has emerged as a dominant explanation: cooperating today can bring benefits tomorrow. Reciprocity theories clearly predict that people should only cooperate when the benefits outweigh the costs, and thus that the decision to cooperate should always depend on a cost–benefit analysis. Yet human cooperation can be very uncalculating: good friends grant favors without asking questions, romantic love “blinds” us to the costs of devotion, and ethical principles make universal moral prescriptions. Here, we ...


Bring climate change back from the future

Nature, Vol. 534, No. 7608. (21 June 2016), pp. 437-437,


The ‘shock’ over an Australian extinction shows that we still don’t accept that global warming is a problem for now, says James Watson. [Excerpt] Climate change has claimed its first mammal casualty, with the reported extinction of the Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola). The last of these Australian marsupials is thought to have disappeared around 2009, but the release last week of a report by the Queensland government stating the probable extinction of the species and the cause — sea-level rise induced ...


Forestry application of the AHP by use of MPC© software

Forest Systems, Vol. 21, No. 3. (28 November 2012), 418,


We present an example of the application of the AHP decision-making approach to forest management, by use of MPC© 2.0 software. The example considered is that of a forest services company interested in buying a timber harvester. The company had preselected four different machines as possible alternatives, and established 11 different criteria involved in the decision, grouped into four categories (economic, environmental, social and technical). The decision-making process was undertaken using MPC© 2.0 software tools, which enable establishment of criteria on ...


A new modeling approach for water resources policy analysis

Water Resources Research, Vol. 35, No. 1., null,


Water resources policy analysis deals with the protection of people from the harmful effects of water and assurance of a consistent, adequate supply of usable water. Population and regulatory pressures, political and economic instabilities, and climatic variations can all be expected to further stress water supply resources. Developing policy for managing water systems for human needs in such an environment is difficult, slow, and very costly. The approach to water resources policy analysis developed in this paper is that of the ...


A thirsty world

Science, Vol. 313, No. 5790. (2006), pp. 1067-1067,


[Excerpt] The search for fresh water—to drink, to bathe in, to irrigate crops—is a problem as old as civilization. Across the ages, cities have thrived where the supply is abundant and collapsed in the face of drought. Remarkably, despite the technological progress characterizing the modern era and the fact that most of Earth's surface is covered by oceans, the availability of fresh water remains a pressing concern throughout the world. In this special section, we highlight some of the diverse contemporary ...


Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative

Science, Vol. 293, No. 5530. (2001), pp. 657-660,


Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving ...


Global freshwater resources: soft-path solutions for the 21st century

Science, Vol. 302, No. 5650. (2003), pp. 1524-1528,


Twentieth-century water policies relied on the construction of massive infrastructure in the form of dams, aqueducts, pipelines, and complex centralized treatment plants to meet human demands. These facilities brought tremendous benefits to billions of people, but they also had serious and often unanticipated social, economical, and ecological costs. Many unsolved water problems remain, and past approaches no longer seem sufficient. A transition is under way to a 'soft path' that complements centralized physical infrastructure with lower cost community-scale systems, decentralized and ...


Mixed messages on prices and food security

Science, Vol. 335, No. 6067. (2012), pp. 405-406,


[Summary] Spikes in food prices have pushed food security to the top of the global policy agenda. Price increases have mixed effects on poverty and hunger: They increase the cost of food for consumers but increase incomes of farmers, who represent the bulk of the world's poor. Net effects will differ depending on whether poor households or countries buy or import, or sell or export food (infrastructure, institutions, and market imperfections will play roles, as well) (1–4). Policies to influence prices imply ...


Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs

(01 July 1993)


Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing tradeoffs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like ...


Equality bias impairs collective decision-making across cultures

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 12. (24 March 2015), pp. 3835-3840,


[Significance] When making decisions together, we tend to give everyone an equal chance to voice their opinion. To make the best decisions, however, each opinion must be scaled according to its reliability. Using behavioral experiments and computational modelling, we tested (in Denmark, Iran, and China) the extent to which people follow this latter, normative strategy. We found that people show a strong equality bias: they weight each other’s opinion equally regardless of differences in their reliability, even when this strategy was at ...


Ensemble based systems in decision making

Circuits and Systems Magazine, IEEE, Vol. 6, No. 3. (2006), pp. 21-45,


In matters of great importance that have financial, medical, social, or other implications, we often seek a second opinion before making a decision, sometimes a third, and sometimes many more. In doing so, we weigh the individual opinions, and combine them through some thought process to reach a final decision that is presumably the most informed one. The process of consulting "several experts" before making a final decision is perhaps second nature to us; yet, the extensive benefits of such a ...


Out of Africa

Nature, Vol. 514, No. 7521. (7 October 2014), pp. 139-139,


The Ebola outbreak in West Africa must be shut down now, or the disease will continue to spread. [Excerpt] Ebola is out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. Although this has been the case since late spring, the international pledges of help have yet to translate into concerted, rapid action on the ground. The virus still has the upper hand. Between 23 September and 1 October alone, the number of cases rose from 6,500 to almost 7,500, according to ...


Complex decisions made simple: a primer on stochastic dynamic programming

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 4, No. 9. (1 September 2013), pp. 872-884,


* Under increasing environmental and financial constraints, ecologists are faced with making decisions about dynamic and uncertain biological systems. To do so, stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is the most relevant tool for determining an optimal sequence of decisions over time. * Despite an increasing number of applications in ecology, SDP still suffers from a lack of widespread understanding. The required mathematical and programming knowledge as well as the absence of introductory material provide plausible explanations for this. * Here, we fill ...


Supporting environmental and energy decisions through an open software structure

In Proceedings of the iEMSs Third Biennial Meeting: "Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software" (July 2006)


Public participation to environmental planning and management decisions, as suggested by local Agenda 21 processes, can be supported by software tools developed with a cyclic interaction with all the stakeholders and simple enough to be quickly operated by a large set of heterogeneous users. This also helps preventing their rapid aging and their excessive dependence on changing technologies. We experimented the development of such software tools using an Office type environment to store data, analyse, and geographically represent the effects of ...


An integrated simulation and optimization modelling environment for decision support

Decision Support Systems, Vol. 16, No. 2. (February 1996), pp. 103-117,


A general framework and a specific implementation of a software environment for model prototyping, simulation and optimization are presented. The integration of simulation and optimization, and the possibility of comparing experimental results under complete user control represent the central parts of the proposed approach. Optimization is performed by repetitive simulation runs under the control of an optimization method. The integration of simulation and optimization as well as the post processing facilities offer an effective support to the classical phases of the ...


Decision Evaluation of Response Strategies in Emergency Management Using Imprecise Assessments

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 7, No. 1. (1 January 2010),


This paper focuses on the decision evaluation of different response strategies in emergency management utilizing decision analysis with imprecise information. A method for the selection of response strategies in emergency management, as well as a model for the representation of catastrophic consequences, are proposed. In emergency management decision problems, the available estimates of probabilities, utilities, costs, and priority weights are often subject to large degrees of uncertainty and imprecision. When uncertainty prevails in the input data and large societal values are ...


Context effects produced by question orders reveal quantum nature of human judgments

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 26. (01 July 2014), pp. 9431-9436,


[Significance] In recent years, quantum probability theory has been used to explain a range of seemingly irrational human decision-making behaviors. The quantum models generally outperform traditional models in fitting human data, but both modeling approaches require optimizing parameter values. However, quantum theory makes a universal, nonparametric prediction for differing outcomes when two successive questions (e.g., attitude judgments) are asked in different orders. Quite remarkably, this prediction was strongly upheld in 70 national surveys carried out over the last decade (and in ...


Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem

Safety Science, Vol. 27, No. 2-3. (November 1997), pp. 183-213,


In spite of all efforts to design safer systems, we still witness severe, large-scale accidents. A basic question is: Do we actually have adequate models of accident causation in the present dynamic society? The socio-technical system involved in risk management includes several levels ranging from legislators, over managers and work planners, to system operators. This system is presently stressed by a fast pace of technological change, by an increasingly aggressive, competitive environment, and by changing regulatory practices and public pressure. Traditionally, ...


(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 10

(February 2014)
Keywords: database   dataset   dating   dddas   de-facto-standard   dead-wood   debris   debris-floods   debris-flows   deciduous   deciduous-forest   decision-making   decision-making-procedure   decision-support-system   decline   decline-effect   decline-symptomology   deep-reproducible-research   deep-uncertainty   definition   deforestation   degenerated-soil   deglaciation   degradation   degradation-velocity   dehesas   delonix-regia   democracy   dendrochronology   dendroctonus   dendroctonus-frontalis   dendroctonus-micans   dendroctonus-ponderosae   dendroctonus-pseudotsugae   dendroecology   dendrology   denmark   density-related-behaviour   deposition   derived-data   desalinisation   description   desertification   deserts   design-diversity   devil-in-details   diabetes   diabetes-mellitus   diagram-data   diameter-differentiation   dictionary   die-off   dieback   diesel   differentiation   digital-preservation   digital-society   dimensional-analysis   dimensionality-reduction   dimensionless   dioryctria-splendidella   diospyros-kaki   diospyros-spp   diospyros-virginiana   diplodia-pinea   diprion-pini   dipteryx-panamensis   direct-reciprocity   disaster-recovery   disaster-response   disasters   discharge   disciplinary-barrier   disconcerting-learning   discount-rate   disease   diseases   disjunction   dispersal   dispersal-limitation   dispersal-models   dissent   distance-analysis   distance-correlation   distilled-gin   distribution   distribution-limit   disturbance-ecology   disturbance-interactions   disturbances   diversity   django   dna   dna-fingerprinting   dobrogea   dodonaea-viscosa   dormancy   dormouse   inrmm-list-of-tags  


List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( ). ...


Democratic decisions establish stable authorities that overcome the paradox of second-order punishment

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 2. (23 January 2013), pp. 201315273-756,


[Significance] Humans usually punish free riders but refuse to sanction those who cooperate but do not punish. However, such second-order punishment is essential to maintain cooperation. The central authorities established in modern societies punish both free riders and tax evaders. This is a paradox: would individuals who do not engage in second-order punishment strive for an authority that does? We address this puzzle with a mathematical model and an economic experiment. When individuals can choose between authorities by migrating between different ...


Modelling the effects of subjective and objective decision making in scientific peer review

Nature, Vol. 506, No. 7486. (6 February 2014), pp. 93-96,


The objective of science is to advance knowledge, primarily in two interlinked ways: circulating ideas, and defending or criticizing the ideas of others. Peer review acts as the gatekeeper to these mechanisms. Given the increasing concern surrounding the reproducibility of much published research, it is critical to understand whether peer review is intrinsically susceptible to failure, or whether other extrinsic factors are responsible that distort scientists' decisions. Here we show that even when scientists are motivated to promote the truth, their ...


IPCC: the climate chairman

Nature, Vol. 501, No. 7467. (18 September 2013), pp. 303-305,


Getting hundreds of experts to agree is never easy. Ottmar Edenhofer takes a firm, philosophical approach to the task. ...


Decision making by hybrid probabilistic: Possibilistic utility theory

Panoeconomicus, Vol. 56, No. 4. (2009), pp. 421-433,


It is presented an approach to decision theory based upon nonprobabilistic uncertainty. There is an axiomatization of the hybrid probabilistic possibilistic mixtures based on a pair of triangular conorm and triangular norm satisfying restricted distributivity law, and the corresponding non-additive Smeasure. This is characterized by the families of operations involved in generalized mixtures, based upon a previous result on the characterization of the pair of continuous t-norm and t-conorm such that the former is restrictedly distributive over the latter. The obtained ...


Success Factors in Integrated Natural Resource Management R&D: Lessons from Practice

Ecology and Society, Vol. 5, No. 2. (2001), 29+


This paper analyzes integrated natural resource management (INRM) lessons and success factors based on a practical case study over more than 10 years in Zimbabwe. The work was geared toward enhancing the adaptive management capacity of the stakeholders in their resource-use systems. One main result was the development and institutionalization of an approach for participatory and integrated NRM research and extension. The INRM approach described is grounded in a learning paradigm and a combination of theories: the constructivist perspective to development, ...


Participatory decision making in reservoir planning

In 1st biennial meeting of the IEMSS (2002), pp. 34-44


The technologies and methods for integrated planning and management of water resource systems have matured considerably over the past decades. However, relatively few of them have been actually and regularly applied in real world decisional processes. We feel this is essentially due to a general lack of engagement of stakeholders and decision makers at every stage of the decisional process. Innovative methodologies and tools to improve participation are presented, with focus on water reservoir systems. ...


  1. Anthony, R. Planning and controlsystems: a framework for analysis. PhD thesis, Harvard University Graduate School of Business Administration, 1965.
  2. Aufiero, A., R. Soncini-Sessa, and E. Weber. Setvalued control laws in minmax control problem. In IFAC Workshop Modelling and Control in Environmental Issues, August 22-23, Yokohama, Japan, 2001a. Elsevier.
  3. Aufiero, A., R. Soncini-Sessa, and E. Weber. Setvalued control laws in TEV-DC control problem. Technical Report 2001.60, Dip. Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di
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