From MFKP_wiki

Jump to: navigation, search

Selection: with tag communicating-uncertainty [83 articles] 

 

Big names in statistics want to shake up much-maligned P value

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (26 July 2017), pp. 16-17, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22375

Abstract

One of scientists’ favourite statistics — the P value — should face tougher standards, say leading researchers. [Excerpt] Science is in the throes of a reproducibility crisis, and researchers, funders and publishers are increasingly worried that the scholarly literature is littered with unreliable results. Now, a group of 72 prominent researchers is targeting what they say is one cause of the problem: weak statistical standards of evidence for claiming new discoveries. [\n] In many disciplines the significance of findings is judged by ...

 

Fuzziness vs. probability

  
International Journal of General Systems, Vol. 17, No. 2-3. (June 1990), pp. 211-240, https://doi.org/10.1080/03081079008935108

Abstract

Fuzziness is explored as an alternative to randomness for describing uncertainty. The new sets-as-points geometric view of fuzzy sets is developed. This view identifies a fuzzy set with a point in a unit hypercube and a nonfuzzy set with a vertex of the cube. Paradoxes of two-valued logic and set theory, such as Russell's paradox, correspond to the midpoint of the fuzzy cube. The fundamental questions of fuzzy theory—How fuzzy is a fuzzy set? How much is one fuzzy set a ...

 

Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit

  
WIREs Clim Change, Vol. 8, No. 3. (1 May 2017), n/a, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.454

Abstract

Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modeling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of ‘model fit’; that is, how well model results ...

 

Post-normal institutional identities: quality assurance, reflexivity and ethos of care

  

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Given the current crises of legitimacy and quality in mainstream science, institutions that produce and govern science and those that provide scientific advice to policy need to change their modus operandis; we advocate for an ethos of care. [::] Post-normal science and other frameworks of scientific knowledge production may inspire trustfulness in institutions that provide scientific advice to policy. [::] In Europe, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has the necessary scaffolding to advise policy in view of public interest, ...

 

Keep it complex

  
Nature, Vol. 468, No. 7327. (23 December 2010), pp. 1029-1031, https://doi.org/10.1038/4681029a

Abstract

When knowledge is uncertain, experts should avoid pressures to simplify their advice. Render decision-makers accountable for decisions, says Andy Stirling. ...

 

Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1704-1711, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x

Abstract

[Aim]  Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. [Location]  The Western Cape of South Africa. [Methods]  We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential ...

 

Statistical analysis

  
In Science: editorial policies (2016)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Statistical analysis] Generally, authors should describe statistical methods with enough detail to enable a knowledgeable reader with access to the original data to verify the results. [::] Data pre-processing steps such as transformations, re-coding, re-scaling, normalization, truncation, and handling of below detectable level readings and outliers should be fully described; any removal or modification of data values must be fully acknowledged and justified. [::] [...] [::] The number of sampled units, N, upon which each reported statistic is based must be stated. [::] For continuous ...

 

Review of the main developments in the analytic hierarchy process

  
Expert Systems with Applications (May 2011), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.04.143

Abstract

[Abstract] In this paper the authors review the developments of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) since its inception. The focus of this paper is a neutral review on the methodological developments rather than reporting its applications that have appeared since its introduction. In particular, we discuss problem modelling, pair-wise comparisons, judgement scales, derivation methods, consistency indices, incomplete matrix, synthesis of the weights, sensitivity analysis and group decisions. All have been important areas of research in AHP. [Highlights] [::] Methodological developments of the analytic hierarchy ...

 

More accountability for big-data algorithms

  
Nature, Vol. 537, No. 7621. (21 September 2016), pp. 449-449, https://doi.org/10.1038/537449a

Abstract

To avoid bias and improve transparency, algorithm designers must make data sources and profiles public. [Excerpt] [...] Algorithms, from the simplest to the most complex, follow sets of instructions or learn to accomplish a goal. In principle, they could help to make impartial analyses and decisions by reducing human biases and prejudices. But there is growing concern that they risk doing the opposite, and will replicate and exacerbate human failings [...]. And in an era of powerful computers, machine learning and big data, ...

 

The precision problem in conservation and restoration

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution (2016), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2016.08.001

Abstract

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit ...

 

Do voting advice applications have an effect on electoral participation and voter turnout? Evidence from the 2007 Swiss federal elections

  
In Electronic Participation, Vol. 6229 (2010), pp. 211-224, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-15158-3_18

Abstract

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) render a valuable platform for tackling one of democracy’s central challenges: low voter turnout. Studies indicate that lack of information and cost-benefit considerations cause voters to abstain from voting. VAAs are online voting assistance tools which match own political preferences with those of candidates and parties in elections. By assisting voters in their decision-making process prior to casting their votes, VAAs not only rebut rational choice reasoning against voting but also narrow existing information gaps. In this ...

 

Modelling as a discipline

  
International Journal of General Systems, Vol. 30, No. 3. (1 January 2001), pp. 261-282, https://doi.org/10.1080/03081070108960709

Abstract

Modelling is an essential and inseparable part of all scientific, and indeed all intellectual, activity. How then can we treat it as a separate discipline? The answer is that the professional modeller brings special skills and techniques to bear in order to produce results that are insightful, reliable, and useful. Many of these techniques can be taught formally, such as sophisticated statistical methods, computer simulation, systems identification, and sensitivity analysis. These are valuable tools, but they are not as important as ...

 

Sailing from the seas of chaos into the corridor of stability: practical recommendations to increase the informational value of studies

  
Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, Vol. 9, No. 3. (01 May 2014), pp. 278-292, https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691614528520

Abstract

Recent events have led psychologists to acknowledge that the inherent uncertainty encapsulated in an inductive science is amplified by problematic research practices. In this article, we provide a practical introduction to recently developed statistical tools that can be used to deal with these uncertainties when performing and evaluating research. In Part 1, we discuss the importance of accurate and stable effect size estimates as well as how to design studies to reach a corridor of stability around effect size estimates. In ...

 

Tales of future weather

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, No. 2. (28 January 2015), pp. 107-113, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450

Abstract

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot ...

 

Accuracy assessment of a remote sensing-based, pan-European forest cover map using multi-country national forest inventory data

  
IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, Vol. 6, No. 1. (February 2013), pp. 54-65, https://doi.org/10.1109/jstars.2012.2236079

Abstract

A pan-European forest cover map (FMAP2006) was produced using a novel automated classification approach using remotely sensed data from fine resolution satellite instruments. In contrast to previous classification accuracy assessments of such continental scale land cover products, the current study aimed for a reliable assessment at different geographical levels: pan-European, regional and local level. A unique data set consisting of detailed field inventory plots was provided via a collaboration with the national forest inventories (NFIs) in Europe. Close to 900,000 field ...

 

Expert group and workshop on valuation of forest ecosystem services

  
(2015)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Foreword] Forests create multiple benefits for the society, providing renewable raw materials and play an important role in human wellbeing, biological diversity, the global carbon cycle, water balance, erosion control, combating desertification and the prevention of natural hazards, among others. Forests contribute to environmental stability, economic prosperity and offer social, ecosystem and recreational services. [\n] They improve the knowledge about ecosystem services, its value and natural capital allow us to see the direct ways in which we depend on the natural environment and how local policy makers can address policy challenges in many ...

 

On the extinction of craft skills with numbers - The case of “Overall, 7.9% of species are predicted to become extinct from climate change.”

  
(December 2015)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] [\n] This paper is about craft skills with numbers and, in particular, about problems with the use of numbers of unknown pedigree. As an example, I will discuss a very striking number that appeared in the mainstream press in early May 20152: a new scientific study was reported to have found that 7.9% of species would become extinct as a result of climate change. What was quite remarkable about this number is that it had two digits: not 10%, not ...

 

Consistent and clear reporting of results from diverse modeling techniques: the A3 method

  
Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 66, No. 7. (2015), https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v066.i07

Abstract

The measurement and reporting of model error is of basic importance when constructing models. Here, a general method and an R package, A3, are presented to support the assessment and communication of the quality of a model fit along with metrics of variable importance. The presented method is accurate, robust, and adaptable to a wide range of predictive modeling algorithms. The method is described along with case studies and a usage guide. It is shown how the method can be used ...

 

Accurately measuring model prediction error

  
(2012)

Abstract

When assessing the quality of a model, being able to accurately measure its prediction error is of key importance. Often, however, techniques of measuring error are used that give grossly misleading results. This can lead to the phenomenon of over-fitting where a model may fit the training data very well, but will do a poor job of predicting results for new data not used in model training. Here is an overview of methods to accurately measure model prediction error. ...

Visual summary

 

The role of regional climate projections in managing complex socio-ecological systems

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 1. (2015), pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0631-y

Abstract

Climate is one of many factors to be considered in adapting systems to environmental and societal change and often it is not the most important factor. Moreover, given considerable model inadequacies, irreducible uncertainties, and poor accessibility to model output, we may legitimately ask whether or not regional climate projections ought to have a central role in guiding climate change adaptation decisions. This question is addressed by analysing the value of regional downscaled climate model output in the management of complex socio-ecological ...

Visual summary

 

Communicating thematic data quality with web map services

  
ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, Vol. 4, No. 4. (06 October 2015), pp. 1965-1981, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi4041965

Abstract

Geospatial information of many kinds, from topographic maps to scientific data, is increasingly being made available through web mapping services. These allow georeferenced map images to be served from data stores and displayed in websites and geographic information systems, where they can be integrated with other geographic information. The Open Geospatial Consortium’s Web Map Service (WMS) standard has been widely adopted in diverse communities for sharing data in this way. However, current services typically provide little or no information about the ...

 

Study of a collaborative repository of semantic metadata and models for regional environmental datasets' multivariate transformations

  
(2015)
edited by Giorgio Guariso

Abstract

A semantic modelling procedure is introduced to ease array-based multivariate transformations of public environmental data, along with the architecture of a collaborative repository of modelling meta-information based on the procedure. [\n] The procedure, Semantic Array Programming (SemAP), is intended as a lightweight paradigm to support integrated natural resources modelling and management (INRMM), in the context of wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe, here tested from catchment up to regional and continental scale). [\n] It is a common experience among computational scientists, ...

References

  1. Aalde, H., Gonzalez, P., Gytarsky, M., Krug, T., Kurz, W. A., Ogle, S., Raison, J., Schoene, D., Ravindranath, N. H., Elhassan, N. G., Heath, L. S., Higuchi, N., Kainja, S., Matsumoto, M., Sanz Sánchez, M. J., Somogyi, Z., 2006. Forest Land. Vol. 4 of IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Ch. 4, 83 pp. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/4_Volume4/V4_04_Ch4_Forest_Land.pdf .
 

The statistical crisis in science

  
American Scientist, Vol. 102, No. 6. (2014), 460, https://doi.org/10.1511/2014.111.460

Abstract

Data-dependent analysis—a “garden of forking paths”— explains why many statistically significant comparisons don't hold up. [Excerpt] There is a growing realization that reported “statistically significant” claims in scientific publications are routinely mistaken. Researchers typically express the confidence in their data in terms of p-value: the probability that a perceived result is actually the result of random variation. The value of p (for “probability”) is a way of measuring the extent to which a data set provides evidence against a so-called null hypothesis. ...

 

Deep uncertainty

  
In Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (2013), pp. 395-402, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1153-7_1140

Abstract

[Excerpt: Introduction] The notion of uncertainty has taken different meanings and emphases in various fields, including the physical sciences, engineering, statistics, economics, finance, insurance, philosophy, and psychology. Analyzing the notion in each discipline can provide a specific historical context and scope in terms of problem domain, relevant theory, methods, and tools for handling uncertainty. Such analyses are given by Agusdinata (2008), van Asselt (2000), Morgan and Henrion (1990), and Smithson (1989). [\n] In general, uncertainty can be defined as limited knowledge about ...

Visual summary

 

Misplaced faith

  
Nature, Vol. 522, No. 7554. (2 June 2015), pp. 6-6, https://doi.org/10.1038/522006a

Abstract

The public trusts scientists much more than scientists think. But should it? [Excerpt] [... A] poll by Ipsos MORI this year showed that scientists are among the most trusted professionals in Britain; some nine in ten people said that they trust scientists to follow all of the research rules and regulations relevant to them. How many scientists would say the same? Not many, probably, of the attendees at this week’s 4th World Conference on Research Integrity in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. As we ...

 

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates

  
Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 4, No. 24. (December 2014), pp. 4798-4811, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1319

Abstract

[::] Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions. [::] We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate ...

 

IPCC fifth assessment synthesis report - Climate Change 2014 synthesis report

  
(1 November 2014)

Abstract

The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 (AR4). The SYR synthesizes the main findings of the AR5 (IPCC) based on contributions from Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change), plus two additional IPCC reports ...

 

How to avoid a perfunctory sensitivity analysis

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 25, No. 12. (15 December 2010), pp. 1508-1517, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.012

Abstract

Mathematical modelers from different disciplines and regulatory agencies worldwide agree on the importance of a careful sensitivity analysis (SA) of model-based inference. The most popular SA practice seen in the literature is that of ’one-factor-at-a-time’ (OAT). This consists of analyzing the effect of varying one model input factor at a time while keeping all other fixed. While the shortcomings of OAT are known from the statistical literature, its widespread use among modelers raises concern on the quality of the associated sensitivity ...

 

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework

  
Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 39 (January 2013), pp. 116-134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.02.008

Abstract

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within ...

 

There is no silver bullet: The value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance

  
Ecological Economics, Vol. 104 (August 2014), pp. 61-72, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.04.024

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] We consider short-term surveillance of an invasive pest in a diverse landscape. [::] Our case study is focused on the survey of emerald ash borer expansion in Canada. [::] The spread of the invader is described by distribution-model-based estimates. [::] A portfolio framework was applied to allocate resources for pest surveillance. [::] Diversification makes the survey less subject to errors in spread estimates. [Abstract] In this study we demonstrate how the notion of diversification can be used in broad-scale resource allocation for surveillance of ...

 

IPCC report under fire

  
Nature, Vol. 508, No. 7496. (15 April 2014), pp. 298-298, https://doi.org/10.1038/508298a

Abstract

Critics attack panel’s lack of specific guidance on how countries should lower emissions. [Excerpt] [...] The document, a policy summary prepared by Working Group III of the IPCC, is the third instalment of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. It follows reports on the science of climate and the impacts of climate change, released in the past few months. Compiled by hundreds of lead and reviewing authors over several years, the report warns that without substantial policy and technology changes, the world is ...

 

Global species richness estimates have not converged

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 29, No. 4. (February 2014), pp. 187-188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2014.02.002

Abstract

We demonstrate that after more than six decades, estimates of global species richness have failed to converge, remain highly uncertain, and in many cases, are logically inconsistent. Convergence in these estimates could be accelerated by adaptive learning methods where the estimation of uncertainty is prioritised and used to guide future research. ...

 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 8

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: coldwaves   coleophora-laricella   collaborative-design   collection   collective-intelligence   colli-euganei   collinearity   colombia   colophospermum-mopane   color-photos   colorado   colutea-arborescens   combretum-imberbe   combustion-emission   command-line   common-bird-index   common-name-alder   common-name-ash   common-name-beech   common-name-yew   communicating-uncertainty   community   community-modelling   community-structure   community-structures   comparison   competition   complexes   complexity   complexity-vs-uncertainty   component-based   compsidia-populnea   compsilura-concinnata   computational-science   computational-science-automation   computer-science   cone-crop   conefor-sensinode   conflicts   congo   coniferales   coniferophyta   coniferopsida   conifers   connectivity   conocarpus-erectus   consensus   conservation   conservation-biology   conservation-strategies   console   constrained-innovation   constrained-spatial-multi-frequency-analysis   context-aware   continental-scale   continuity   control-problem   controversial-monetarisation   conyza-canadensis   cooperation   coppice   coppice-forest   coppice-sessile-oak   coppice-stools   copyleft   cordia-boissieri   cordia-sebestena   cork   cornus-florida   cornus-mas   cornus-nuttallii   cornus-officinalis   cornus-sanguinea   cornus-spp   coroebus-florentinus   correlation-analysis   correlative-approach   corridors   corrigenda   corroboration   corsica   corsican-nuthatch   corsican-pine   corylus-avellana   corylus-colurna   corylus-spp   corymbia-calophylla   cosmetic-use   cossus-cossus   cost-benefit-analysis   costal-dunes   costs   cotinus-coggygria   cotoneaster-integerrimus   cotoneaster-nebrodensis   cotoneaster-spp   cotton   couroupita-guianensis   cowania-mexicana   inrmm-list-of-tags  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

  
Nature, Vol. 470, No. 7335. (24 February 2011), pp. 531-534, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09705

Abstract

Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes1, 2, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history3, 4, 5. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we ...

 

Scientist-versus-activist debates mislead the public

  
Nature, Vol. 506, No. 7489. (26 February 2014), pp. 409-409, https://doi.org/10.1038/506409a

Abstract

The UK floods show the need to address the risks of climate change, but news teams still insist on pitching experts against sceptics, says Simon L. Lewis. [Excerpt] The United Kingdom’s December–February rainfall was the highest since records began in 1910. Tracts of southern England have been flooded for weeks. The army has been deployed to build flood defences. Once again, climate change has floated to the top of the UK political agenda. Extreme weather tends to do that — a similar ...

 

Scientific method: statistical errors

  
Nature, Vol. 506, No. 7487. (12 February 2014), pp. 150-152, https://doi.org/10.1038/506150a

Abstract

P values, the 'gold standard' of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume. ...

 

Improving scientific communication

  
Science, Vol. 342, No. 6154. (04 October 2013), pp. 13-13, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1246449

Abstract

Even the most brilliant scientific discovery, if not communicated widely and accurately, is of little value. And with the explosion of science around the globe, the dissemination of scientific information, once the purview of learned societies and a handful of publishers, is now a growth industry. This growth has attracted new models and new providers of services. In the process, the standards for scientific communication are slipping (see the special section on Communication in Science beginning on p. 56). The science ...

 

Software uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: the role of semantics and open science

  
Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 15 (Nov 2013), 13292, https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.155701

Abstract

Computational aspects increasingly shape environmental sciences. Actually, transdisciplinary modelling of complex and uncertain environmental systems is challenging computational science (CS) and also the science-policy interface. Large spatial-scale problems falling within this category - i.e. wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) - often deal with factors for which deep-uncertainty may prevent usual statistical analysis of modelled quantities and need different ways for providing policy-making with science-based support. Here, practical recommendations are proposed for tempering a peculiar - not infrequently underestimated - source of uncertainty. Software errors in complex WSTMe may ...

Visual summary

 

Communicating complexity: Integrated assessment of trade-offs concerning soil fertility management within African farming systems to support innovation and development

  
Agricultural Systems, Vol. 104, No. 2. (17 February 2011), pp. 191-203, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2010.07.002

Abstract

African farming systems are highly heterogeneous: between agroecological and socioeconomic environments, in the wide variability in farmers’ resource endowments and in farm management. This means that single solutions (or ‘silver bullets’) for improving farm productivity do not exist. Yet to date few approaches to understand constraints and explore options for change have tackled the bewildering complexity of African farming systems. In this paper we describe the Nutrient Use in Animal and Cropping systems – Efficiencies and Scales (NUANCES) framework. NUANCES offers ...

 

Defining terms for integrated (multi-inter-trans-disciplinary) sustainability research

  
Sustainability, Vol. 3, No. 8. (26 July 2011), pp. 1090-1113, https://doi.org/10.3390/su3081090

Abstract

Our contemporary social and ecological problems, including climate change, peak oil and food security, necessitate solutions informed by multiple backgrounds that singular disciplines seem unable to provide, and possibly, are even incapable of providing. The increasing occurrence of multi-, inter- and transdisciplinary (MIT) research projects speak to the recognition of that necessity. But as the literature and our own experiences bear out, just calling a project “beyond disciplinary” or integrated does not necessarily yield the intended outcomes or make progress toward ...

 

Hot climates, high sensitivity

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 35. (27 August 2013), pp. 14118-14119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1313417110

Abstract

Climate sensitivity is the Holy Grail of climate science; because CO2 is one of the principal control knobs for climate, sensitivity to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration is of particular interest. This sensitivity is typically characterized by the change in global mean temperature per doubling of concentration. Because the determination of climate sensitivity is plagued by uncertainties about the operation of various feedbacks in the climate system—notably cloud feedback—it is natural to look to the past for clues about how well ...

 

Trapped between two tails: trading off scientific uncertainties via climate targets

  
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, No. 3. (01 September 2013), 034019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034019

Abstract

Climate change policies must trade off uncertainties about future warming, about the social and ecological impacts of warming, and about the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We show that laxer carbon targets produce broader distributions for climate damages, skewed towards severe outcomes. However, if potential low-carbon technologies fill overlapping niches, then more stringent carbon targets produce broader distributions for the cost of reducing emissions, skewed towards high-cost outcomes. We use the technology-rich GCAM integrated assessment model to assess the ...

 

Bootstrap tests: how many bootstraps?

  
Econometric Reviews, Vol. 19, No. 1. (1 January 2000), pp. 55-68, https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930008800459

Abstract

In practice, bootstrap tests must use a finite number of bootstrap samples. This means that the outcome of the test will depend on the sequence of random numbers used to generate the bootstrap samples, and it necessarily results in some loss of power. We examine the extent of this power loss and propose a simple pretest procedure for choosing the number of bootstrap samples so as to minimize experimental randomness. Simulation experiments suggest that this procedure will work very well in ...

 

Niche syndromes, species extinction risks, and management under climate change

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 28, No. 9. (September 2013), pp. 517-523, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.010

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Species can survive beyond the bounds of the fundamental niche. [::] The ‘tolerance niche’ informs extinction risk and management options. [::] Relations among the realized, fundamental, and tolerance niche can be examined. [::] These ‘niche syndromes’ have not previously been characterized. [::] Characterizing niche syndromes can advance basic and applied research goals. [Summary] The current distributions of species are often assumed to correspond with the total set of environmental conditions under which species can persist. When this assumption is incorrect, extinction risk estimated from species distribution ...

 

Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 119, No. 3-4. (2013), pp. 585-601, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0770-z

Abstract

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our uncertainty is actually prone to increase even though we learn more about the climate system. We term disconcerting learning this somewhat counter-intuitive process in which improved knowledge generates higher uncertainty. After recalling some ...

 

It's a myth that protection against disease is a strong and general service of biodiversity conservation: Response to Ostfeld and Keesing

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 28, No. 9. (September 2013), pp. 503-504, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.06.012

Abstract

[Excerpt] Ostfeld and Keesing's rebuttal [1] to our published review [2] does not question our overall synthesis that Lyme disease (LD) transmission is a complex balance between dilution and amplification. Ostfeld and Keesing do rebut some details, critique conclusions by authors cited in our review, question whether deer are important hosts for deer ticks, and cast aspersions on a paradigm that they themselves introduced into the literature (equating biodiversity with forestation). Ostfeld and Keesing confuse ‘reductio ad absurdum reasoning’ with a ...

 

Categorizing Ideas about Trees: A Tree of Trees

  
PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, No. 8. (7 August 2013), pp. e68814-e68814, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0068814

Abstract

The aim of this study is to explore whether matrices and MP trees used to produce systematic categories of organisms could be useful to produce categories of ideas in history of science. We study the history of the use of trees in systematics to represent the diversity of life from 1766 to 1991. We apply to those ideas a method inspired from coding homologous parts of organisms. We discretize conceptual parts of ideas, writings and drawings about trees contained in 41 ...

 

On the age of the sun’s heat

  
Macmillan's Magazine, Vol. 5 (March 1862), pp. 388-393

Abstract

The second great law of thermodynamics involves a certain principle of irreversible action in Nature. It is thus shown that, although mechanical energy is indestructible, there is a universal tendency to its dissipation, which produces gradual augmentation and diffusion of heat, cessation of motion, and exhaustion of potential energy through the material universe. [1] The result would inevitably be a state of universal rest and death, if the universe were finite and left to obey existing laws. But it is impossible ...

 

The evolution of error: error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 28, No. 8. (August 2013), pp. 474-481, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014

Abstract

Counterintuitively, biases can improve decision making. Numerous studies have identified biases as an effective way to manage errors. Given cognitive and evolutionary constraints, psychological biases can be adaptive. EMT has a wide scope of application for modern challenges. Counterintuitively, biases in behavior or cognition can improve decision making. Under conditions of uncertainty and asymmetric costs of ‘false-positive’ and ‘false-negative’ errors, biases can lead to mistakes in one direction but – in so doing – steer us away from more costly mistakes ...

 

Dynamic data driven ensemble for wildfire behaviour assessment: a case study

  
IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 413 (2013), pp. 11-22, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41151-9_2

Abstract

Wildfire information has long been collected in Europe, with particular focus on forest fires. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of the European Commission complements and harmonises the information collected by member countries and covers the forest fire management cycle. This latter ranges from forest fire preparedness to post-fire impact analysis. However, predicting and simulating fire event dynamics requires the integrated modelling of several sources of uncertainty. Here we present a case study of a novel conceptualization based on a Semantic ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/communicating-uncertainty

Result page: 1 2 Next

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.