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Selection: with tag climate-projections [68 articles] 

 

Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:tiewac>2.3.co;2

Abstract

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...

 

Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

  
Science In Science, Vol. 289, No. 5487. (22 September 2000), pp. 2068-2074, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

Abstract

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense ...

 

Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

  
Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 1-2. (2013), pp. 229-247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3

Abstract

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical ...

 

Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!

  
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 117, No. 1-2. (2014), pp. 113-122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0992-z

Abstract

Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction ...

 

Annex III: glossary

  
In Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013), pp. 1447-1465

Abstract

[Excerpt] This glossary defines some specific terms as the Lead Authors intend them to be interpreted in the context of this report. Red, italicized words indicate that the term is defined in the Glossary. [\n] [...] ...

 

Meteorological droughts in Europe: events and impacts - Past trends and future projections

  

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive Summary] Observational records from 1950 onwards and climate projections for the 21st century provide evidence that droughts are a recurrent climate feature in large parts of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean, but also in western, south-eastern and central Europe. Trends over the past 60 years show an increasing frequency, duration and intensity of droughts in these regions, while a negative trend has been observed in north-eastern Europe. With a changing climate, this tendency is likely to be reinforced during the 21st century, affecting a wide range of ...

 

Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises

  
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 5, No. 9. (November 2007), pp. 475-482, https://doi.org/10.1890/070037

Abstract

No-analog communities (communities that are compositionally unlike any found today) occurred frequently in the past and will develop in the greenhouse world of the future. The well documented no-analog plant communities of late-glacial North America are closely linked to “novel” climates also lacking modern analogs, characterized by high seasonality of temperature. In climate simulations for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 and B1 emission scenarios, novel climates arise by 2100 AD, primarily in tropical and subtropical regions. These future novel ...

 

Observational evidence for cloud cover enhancement over western European forests

  
Nature Communications, Vol. 8 (11 January 2017), 14065, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14065

Abstract

Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15 min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, ...

Visual summary

 

ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts - Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project

  
(2009)

Abstract

The climate projections generated in ENSEMBLES describe the world and Europe experiencing tangible, measurable climate change. As the century progresses the projected climate moves increasingly farther away from its current state, so that by 2100 the climate of Europe will be very different from today. Even under a mitigation scenario, the climate of Europe during the next few decades is still calculated to depart significantly from that of the present. [\n] ENSEMBLES results show how the impacts resulting from these climate changes, including changes in climate mean, ...

 

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

  
Ecological Processes In Ecological Processes, Vol. 1, No. 1. (2012), pp. 2-15, https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-1709-1-2

Abstract

[Introduction] Evaluating the environmental impacts of climate change on water resources and biological components of the landscape is an integral part of hydrologic and ecological investigations, and the resultant land and resource management in the twenty-first century. Impacts of both climate and simulated hydrologic parameters on ecological processes are relevant at scales that reflect the heterogeneity and complexity of landscapes. At present, simulations of climate change available from global climate models [GCMs] require downscaling for hydrologic or ecological applications. [Methods] Using statistically ...

 

Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2007)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] This Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science of climate change and continues to broaden the view of that science, following on from previous Working Group I assessments. The results presented here are based on the extensive scientific literature that has become available since completion of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, together with expanded data sets, new analyses, and more sophisticated climate modelling capabilities. [\n] This report has been prepared in accordance with rules and procedures ...

 

Uncertainties in projecting future changes in atmospheric rivers and their impacts on heavy precipitation over Europe

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, No. 18. (24 June 2016), pp. 6711-6726, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0088.1

Abstract

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multimodel ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large intermodel variability strongly correlated with the intermodel spread of historical near-surface westerly jet position. Under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), AR frequency is projected to increase significantly by the end of ...

 

Projected changes in intense precipitation over Europe at the daily and subdaily time scales

  
Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, No. 15. (19 May 2015), pp. 6193-6203, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00779.1

Abstract

Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency toward more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the subdaily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and subdaily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one representative ...

 

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

  
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 119, No. 22. (27 November 2014), pp. 12,500-12,512, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022098

Abstract

An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is ...

 

Special report on emissions scenarios

  
(2000)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations] In summary, the SRES scenarios [SRES is for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios] lead to the following findings: [::] Alternative combinations of driving forces can lead to similar levels and structure of energy and land-use patterns, as illustrated by different scenarios and groups. Hence, even for a given scenario outcome (e.g., in terms of GHG emissions) there are alternative combinations of driving forces and pathways that could lead to that outcome. For instance, significant global changes could ...

 

RCP 8.5 - A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 33-57, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y

Abstract

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE ...

 

Europe

  
In Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability - Part B: regional aspects - Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), pp. 1267-1326

Abstract

[Excerpt: Executive Summary] [::] Observed climate trends and future climate projections show regionally varying changes in temperature and rainfall in Europe (high confidence), 23.2.2 in agreement with Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) findings, with projected increases in temperature throughout Europe and increasing precipitation in Northern Europe and decreasing precipitation in Southern Europe. 23.2.2.2 Climate projections show a marked increase in high temperature extremes (high confidence), meteorological droughts (medium confidence), 23.2.3 and heavy precipitation events (high confidence), 23.2.2.3 with variations across Europe, and small or no changes ...

 

Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts and response strategies

  
(2008)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusion] This section summarizes the ways in which the parallel process for development of climate change scenarios described in this report relates to the six general questions introduced in Section I. [::1. Can new integrated scenarios that meet user needs be produced with the available resources and completed in time for consideration in a possible future IPCC assessment?] Earlier approaches to the use of scenarios in climate change science have followed the sequence of development of a complete set of emissions scenarios, development of the corresponding ...

 

Regional climate hindcast simulations within EURO-CORDEX: evaluation of a WRF multi-physics ensemble

  
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, No. 3. (16 March 2015), pp. 603-618, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-603-2015

Abstract

In the current work we present six hindcast WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) simulations for the EURO-CORDEX (European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) domain with different configurations in microphysics, convection and radiation for the time period 1990–2008. All regional model simulations are forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and have the same spatial resolution (0.44°). These simulations are evaluated for surface temperature, precipitation, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface and total cloud cover. The analysis of the WRF ensemble ...

 

Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

  
Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, No. 4. (10 July 2014), pp. 1297-1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014

Abstract

EURO-CORDEX is an international climate downscaling initiative that aims to provide high-resolution climate scenarios for Europe. Here an evaluation of the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble is presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatiotemporal patterns of the European climate for the period 1989–2008. Model evaluation focuses on near-surface air temperature and precipitation, and uses the E-OBS data set as observational reference. The ensemble consists of 17 simulations carried out by seven ...

 

The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project

  
Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, No. 9-10. (2013), pp. 2555-2575, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z
 

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 14, No. 2. (2014), pp. 563-578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

Abstract

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been ...

 

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

  
Nature, Vol. 502, No. 7470. (9 October 2013), pp. 183-187, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12540

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an ...

 

Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation

  
Energy Economics, Vol. 31 (21 December 2009), pp. S152-S162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.010

Abstract

In this article we explore several scenarios that aim at meeting radiative forcing targets at 4.5, 3.7, 2.9 and 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100. These scenarios are run under the assumption of participation of all countries by 2012 in climate policy and under the assumption of a significant delay in the participation of Russia and non-Annex I countries (up to 2030 and 2050). The study finds the lowest radiative forcing categories to be feasible under full participation, certainly if overshoot of ...

 

Increasing daily wildfire risk in the Acadian Forest Region of Nova Scotia, Canada, under future climate change

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 7. (2015), pp. 1447-1459, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0698-5

Abstract

A conceptual system dynamic model of the impact of future climate change on fire risk in the Nova Scotian Acadian Forest Region (NS AFR) was developed, clarifying the influence of positive and negative drivers of future fire risk. Weights of relative importance for seven wildfire risk drivers identified in the conceptual model were elicited through an analytical hierarchy process. Expert participants identified precipitation, temperature, and local tree species composition as the most important determinants of future fire risk. Fire weather variables ...

 

Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: evaluation on the present climate

  
Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, No. D16. (18 August 2011), https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd015934

Abstract

A statistical bias correction technique is applied to a set of high-resolution climate change simulations for Europe from 11 state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the project ENSEMBLES. Modeled and observed daily values of mean, minimum and maximum temperature and total precipitation are used to construct transfer functions for the period 1961–1990, which are then applied to the decade 1991–2000, where the results are evaluated. By using a large ensembles of model runs and a long construction period, we take into ...

 

Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: analysis of the climate change signal

  
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, No. D17. (16 September 2012), D17110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jd017968

Abstract

A statistical bias correction technique is applied to twelve high-resolution climate change simulations of temperature and precipitation over Europe, under the SRES A1B scenario, produced for the EU project ENSEMBLES. The bias correction technique is based on a transfer function, estimated on current climate, which affects the whole Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of variables, and which is assumed constant between the current and future climate. The impact of bias correction on 21st Century projections, their inter-model variability, and the climate change ...

 

Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations

  
Science, Vol. 312, No. 5782. (2006), pp. 1918-1921, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114722

Abstract

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, ...

 

The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers

  
Science, Vol. 336, No. 6079. (2012), pp. 310-314, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215828

Abstract

Himalayan glaciers are a focus of public and scientific debate. Prevailing uncertainties are of major concern because some projections of their future have serious implications for water resources. Most Himalayan glaciers are losing mass at rates similar to glaciers elsewhere, except for emerging indications of stability or mass gain in the Karakoram. A poor understanding of the processes affecting them, combined with the diversity of climatic conditions and the extremes of topographical relief within the region, makes projections speculative. Nevertheless, it ...

 

Climate science: where climate models fall short

  
Nature, Vol. 531, No. 7592. (2 March 2016), pp. 10-10, https://doi.org/10.1038/531010d

Abstract

Climate models tend to overestimate the extent to which climate change contributes to weather events such as extreme heat and rain. [\n] Omar Bellprat and Francisco Doblas-Reyes at the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences in Barcelona, Spain, used an idealized statistical model to compare the frequency of weather extremes in simulations [...] ...

 

Forest summer albedo is sensitive to species and thinning: how should we account for this in Earth system models?

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, No. 8. (29 April 2014), pp. 2411-2427, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2411-2014

Abstract

Although forest management is one of the instruments proposed to mitigate climate change, the relationship between forest management and canopy albedo has been ignored so far by climate models. Here we develop an approach that could be implemented in Earth system models. A stand-level forest gap model is combined with a canopy radiation transfer model and satellite-derived model parameters to quantify the effects of forest thinning on summertime canopy albedo. This approach reveals which parameter has the largest affect on summer ...

 

The role of regional climate projections in managing complex socio-ecological systems

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 15, No. 1. (2015), pp. 1-12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0631-y

Abstract

Climate is one of many factors to be considered in adapting systems to environmental and societal change and often it is not the most important factor. Moreover, given considerable model inadequacies, irreducible uncertainties, and poor accessibility to model output, we may legitimately ask whether or not regional climate projections ought to have a central role in guiding climate change adaptation decisions. This question is addressed by analysing the value of regional downscaled climate model output in the management of complex socio-ecological ...

Visual summary

 

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

  
Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 5-31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Abstract

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and ...

 

An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research

  
WIREs Clim Change, Vol. 6, No. 3. (1 March 2015), pp. 301-319, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.339

Abstract

The term ‘downscaling’ refers to the process of translating information from global climate model simulations to a finer spatial resolution. There are numerous methods by which this translation of information can occur. For users of downscaled information, it is important to have some understanding of the properties of different methods (in terms of their capabilities and limitations to convey the change signal, as simulated by the global model), as these dictate the type of applications that the downscaled information can be ...

 

Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis - Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2013)

Abstract

[Excerpt: Preface] The Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 and incorporates subsequent new findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, as well as from research published in the extensive ...

 

Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability - Part B: regional aspects - Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2014)

Abstract

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability is the second volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — Climate Change 2013/2014— and was prepared by its Working Group II. The volume focuses on why climate change matters and is organized into two parts, devoted respectively to human and natural systems and regional aspects, incorporating results from the reports of Working Groups I and III. The volume addresses impacts that have already occurred and ...

 

Guidelines for use of climate scenarios developed from statistical downscaling methods

  
(2004)

Abstract

[Excerpt: introduction] The climate change information required for many impact studies is of a spatial scale much finer than that provided by global or regional climate models. The ensuing problems for impact assessment have been recognised for a long time (Kim et al., 1984; Gates, 1985; Robinson and Finkelstein, 1989; Lamb, 1987; Smith and Tirpak, 1989; Cohen, 1990). Global climate models (GCMs) have resolutions of hundreds of kilometres whilst regional climate models (RCMs) may be as fine as tens of kilometres. However, many impact applications require ...

 

A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates

  
Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 4, No. 24. (December 2014), pp. 4798-4811, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1319

Abstract

[::] Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions. [::] We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate ...

 

IPCC fifth assessment synthesis report - Climate Change 2014 synthesis report

  
(1 November 2014)

Abstract

The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 (AR4). The SYR synthesizes the main findings of the AR5 (IPCC) based on contributions from Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change), plus two additional IPCC reports ...

 

Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100

  
Science, Vol. 287, No. 5459. (10 March 2000), pp. 1770-1774, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5459.1770

Abstract

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, ...

 

Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 16, No. 1. (2016), pp. 21-30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0621-0

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with ...

 

Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase

  
Nature Clim. Change, Vol. 4, No. 9. (20 September 2014), pp. 835-840, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2310

Abstract

The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with ...

 

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 24. (17 June 2014), pp. 8776-8781, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1314787111

Abstract

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations ...

 

Climate impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project

  
edited by J. C. Ciscar

Abstract

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison ...

References

  1. Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., Wei, T., 2012. Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in European Economies. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 959-968. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.06.005 .
  2. Alley, R.B., Whillans, I.M., 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254 (5034), 959–963. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.254.5034.959 .
  3. Anstey, J., Davini, P., Gray, L., Woollings, T., 2012. Multi-model analysis of winter blocking and tropospheric jet variability: The roles of horizontal and vertical resolution. Submitted to J.
 

(INRMM-MiD internal record) List of keywords of the INRMM meta-information database - part 7

  
(February 2014)
Keywords: chamaerops-humilis   change   change-factor   channel-network   chaos   characteristics   charcoal   charcoal-analysis   check-list   chemical-analisys   chemical-composition   chemical-control   chemicals   chemosystematics   chenopodium-spp   chernobyl   chestnut-disease   chile   chilopsis-linearis   chimborazo   china   chionosphaera-cuniculicola   chionosphaera-spp   chloroplast-dna   chlorosis   cholera   chorisia-speciosa   choristoneura-conflictana   choristoneura-fumiferana   choristoneura-spp   chorology   chosenia-arbutifolia   chromium   chrysomela-populi   chrysomela-scripta   chrysomela-tremulae   chrysophyllum-albidum   chrysoptharta-bimaculata   chytridiopsis-typographi   cinchona-pubescens   cinnamomum-camphora   circular-economy   cistus-spp   citation-errors   citation-metrics   citeulike   citizen-science   citizen-sensor   citrus-aurantium   classification   classification-trees   clc   clear-cutting   clematis-alpina   clematis-vitalba   cliamte-change   cliffs   climate   climate-change   climate-change-impacts   climate-change-velocity   climate-engineering   climate-equity   climate-extremes   climate-growth-relations   climate-history   climate-models   climate-policy   climate-projections   climate-signal   climate-zones   climatic-conditions   climatic-gradient   climatic-niche   climatic-niche-shift   clostera-anachoreta   clostera-anastomosis   cloud-condensation   cloud-formation   cloudiness   clusia-rosea   clustering   co-evolution   co2   coal   coastal-settlement   coastline   coccoloba-uvifera   cocos-nucifera   codelet   coeloides-bostrichorum   coffea-arabica   coffea-canephora   cognitive-biases   cognitive-breakdown   cognitive-complexity   cognitive-load   cognitive-structure   cold-tolerance   inrmm-list-of-tags  

Abstract

List of indexed keywords within the transdisciplinary set of domains which relate to the Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management (INRMM). In particular, the list of keywords maps the semantic tags in the INRMM Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD). [\n] The INRMM-MiD records providing this list are accessible by the special tag: inrmm-list-of-tags ( http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/inrmm-list-of-tags ). ...

 

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, No. 35. (27 August 2013), pp. 14162-14167, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1303365110

Abstract

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find ...

 

Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years

  
Nature Clim. Change, Vol. 3, No. 9. (28 September 2013), pp. 767-769, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1972

Abstract

Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability. ...

 

Climate science: Rising tide

  
Nature, Vol. 501, No. 7467. (18 September 2013), pp. 301-302, https://doi.org/10.1038/501300a

Abstract

Researchers struggle to project how fast, how high and how far the oceans will rise. ...

 

What are climate models missing?

  
Science, Vol. 340, No. 6136. (31 May 2013), pp. 1053-1054, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1237554

Abstract

Fifty years ago, Joseph Smagorinsky published a landmark paper (1) describing numerical experiments using the primitive equations (a set of fluid equations that describe global atmospheric flows). In so doing, he introduced what later became known as a General Circulation Model (GCM). GCMs have come to provide a compelling framework for coupling the atmospheric circulation to a great variety of processes. Although early GCMs could only consider a small subset of these processes, it was widely appreciated that a more comprehensive ...

 

Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming

  
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, No. 10. (26 May 2006), pp. n/a-n/a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl025540

Abstract

Historical evidence shows that atmospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantified this feedback for CO2 and CH4 by combining the mathematics of feedback with empirical ice-core information and general circulation model (GCM) climate ...

This page of the database may be cited as:
Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database. http://mfkp.org/INRMM/tag/climate-projections

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Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.