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Selection: with tag climate-change [at least 200 articles] 

 

Prepare for larger, longer wildfires

  

Abstract

Climate change makes land management more urgent than ever, says Kathie Dello. [Excerpt] [...] Scientists must walk a careful line when attributing specific events to climate change. Wildfires are part of a healthy ecosystem and a fact of life in the western United States. Many aspects of a landscape affect them, including past fire suppression, land use and human carelessness. [\n] But climate change increases the threat: fires that do start are larger and last longer. Warmer summer temperatures mean more evaporation. Overall, ...

 

Natural climate solutions

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (16 October 2017), 201710465, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Abstract

[Significance] Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize ...

 

The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

  
Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 67, No. 3-4. (June 2009), pp. 227-236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.013

Abstract

Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in ...

 

Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 14, No. 1. (23 January 2014), pp. 143-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-143-2014

Abstract

Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean ...

 

How have past fire disturbances contributed to the current carbon balance of boreal ecosystems?

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, No. 3. (04 February 2016), pp. 675-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016

Abstract

Boreal fires have immediate effects on regional carbon budgets by emitting CO2 into the atmosphere at the time of burning, but they also have legacy effects by initiating a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. Quantifying these different effects on the current-day pan-boreal (44–84° N) carbon balance and quantifying relative contributions of legacy sinks by past fires is important for understanding and predicting the carbon dynamics in this region. Here we used the global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE–SPITFIRE (Organising Carbon and ...

 

Climatological risk: wildfires

  
In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 294-305

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] There is a vast amount of information on wildfires at local, regional and global scales. However, problems remain at different scales in terms of harmonising or standardising practices for the assessment and management of wildfire risk. [\n] Resilience theory is providing a suitable framework by which to explain abrupt changes in socioecological systems. The importance of community participation and building social capital through collective learning and governance mechanisms has been highlighted as a required basis for building disaster resilience (Aldunce et al., 2015; Aldunce et al., 2016; Montiel and Kraus, 2010; O’Brien et al., ...

References

  1. SCION, 2009. Fire behavioiur app. https://www.scionresearch.com/research/forest-science/rural-fire-research/tools/fire-behaviour-smartphone-apps .
  2. NFPA, 2016 Firewise Communities Program. http://www.firewise.org/ .
  3. GOV.UK, n.d. LH1: Management of lowland heathlandhttps://www.gov.uk/countryside-stewardship-grants/management-of-lowland-heathland-lh1 .
  4. KWFW, 2014. Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA):NERC-funded scoping project with Forestry Commission. http://www.kfwf.org.uk/_assets/documents/Wildfire_Threat_Analysis_post-project_report.pdf .
  5. HM Tresaury, 2013. Orange book: management of risk - principles and concepts. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/orange-book .
  6. Cabinet Office, 2015. National Risk
 

General introduction and methodological overview

  
In Ph.D. Thesis: Integrating infra-specific variation of Mediterranean conifers in species distribution models - Applications for vulnerability assessment and conservation (2017), pp. 19-54

Abstract

[Excerpt: Forests ecosystems, climate change and conservation] [...] Despite their importance, we have lost approximately 1.3 % of the total forest area during the last decade, and although deforestation rates are decreasing, they are still high (data for the period 2000-2010 [...]). Nevertheless, fortunately, in some regions, such as Europe, we find an inverse trend with an increasing forest cover [...]. In Europe, 33 % of the total land area (215 million ha) are covered by forests from which more than ...

References

  1. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. a., Wang, T., Curtis-McLane, S., 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95–111.
  2. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.H., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and
 

Well below 2 °C: mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 39. (26 September 2017), pp. 10315-10323, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618481114

Abstract

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 ...

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

 

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible

  
Nature (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22627

Abstract

Analysis suggests that researchers have underestimated how much carbon humanity can emit before reaching this level of warming. [Excerpt] A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will ...

 

A new kind of drought: US record low windiness in 2015

  
IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 9 (2016), 1412470

Abstract

Widespread calming of the wind sapped U.S. wind energy power output in 2015, driven by the same weather patterns responsible for California’s severe drought. [Excerpt: Summary and conclusions] 2015 was a year of records: [::] It was the warmest year on record globally. [::] A highly anomalous ocean warming event in the northeast Pacific (NPM) strongly controlled the weather and climate over North America. [::] A high amplitude ridge of unparalleled strength and longevity over western North America dominated until April 2015. [::] Record low ...

 

Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 8. (24 July 2017), pp. 568-572, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 17) under a most likely emission scenario, we ...

 

An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, No. 4. (7 October 2011), pp. 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1

Abstract

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and ...

 

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

  
Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, No. 6. (June 2012), pp. 2041-2056, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02649.x

Abstract

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area ...

 

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618765114

Abstract

[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...

 

Using n-dimensional hypervolumes for species distribution modelling: a response to Qiao et al.

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 26, No. 9. (September 2017), pp. 1071-1075, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12611

Abstract

Hypervolume approaches are used to quantify functional diversity and quantify environmental niches for species distribution modelling. Recently, Qiao et al. ([1]) criticized our geometrical kernel density estimation (KDE) method for measuring hypervolumes. They used a simulation analysis to argue that the method yields high error rates and makes biased estimates of fundamental niches. Here, we show that (a) KDE output depends in useful ways on dataset size and bias, (b) other species distribution modelling methods make equally stringent but different assumptions ...

 

How disturbance, competition and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

  
Global Change Biology (28 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13847

Abstract

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species’ ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically-based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed ...

 

Legal threat exposes gaps in climate-change planning

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7669. (29 August 2017), pp. 508-509, https://doi.org/10.1038/548508a

Abstract

Australian lawsuit highlights how difficult it is to turn global warming data into useful advice. [Excerpt] [...] Climate scientist Andy Pitman at the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in Sydney, Australia, says that researchers have been warning companies and governments for years about the need to invest in climate modelling and the related field of climate services, which provides forecasts and other information to public and private users. [...] To be useful, he says, the forecasts would need to be ...

 

Fears rise for US climate report as Trump officials take reins

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (1 August 2017), pp. 15-16, https://doi.org/10.1038/548015a

Abstract

Officials at the US Environmental Protection Agency are consulting global-warming sceptics as they weigh up a technical review. ...

 

Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: a review of influence factors

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 17, No. 5. (2017), pp. 1261-1277, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1057-5

Abstract

A dietary shift towards reduced meat consumption is an efficient strategy for countering biodiversity loss and climate change in regions (developed and transition countries) where consumption is already at a very high level or is rapidly expanding (such as China). Biodiversity is being degraded and lost to a considerable extent, with 70 % of the world’s deforestation a result of stripping in order to grow animal feed. Furthermore, about 14.5 % of the world’s anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are calculated ...

 

Biodiversity conservation: the key is reducing meat consumption

  
Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 536 (December 2015), pp. 419-431, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.022

Abstract

The consumption of animal-sourced food products by humans is one of the most powerful negative forces affecting the conservation of terrestrial ecosystems and biological diversity. Livestock production is the single largest driver of habitat loss, and both livestock and feedstock production are increasing in developing tropical countries where the majority of biological diversity resides. Bushmeat consumption in Africa and southeastern Asia, as well as the high growth-rate of per capita livestock consumption in China are of special concern. The projected land ...

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 178, No. 4. (1 June 2008), pp. 719-739, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x

Abstract

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced ...

 

Climate-driven tree mortality: insights from the piñon pine die-off in the United States

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 200, No. 2. (October 2013), pp. 301-303, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12464

Abstract

The global climate is changing, and a range of negative effects on plants has already been observed and will likely continue into the future. One of the most apparent consequences of climate change is widespread tree mortality (Fig. 1). Extensive tree die-offs resulting from recent climate change have been documented across a range of forest types on all forested continents (Allen et al., 2010). The exact physiological mechanisms causing this mortality are not yet well understood (e.g. McDowell, 2011), but they ...

 

Resistance and resilience to changing climate and fire regime depend on plant functional traits

  
Journal of Ecology, Vol. 102, No. 6. (November 2014), pp. 1572-1581, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12306

Abstract

[Summary] [::] Changing disturbance–climate interactions will drive shifts in plant communities: these effects are not adequately quantified by environmental niche models used to predict future species distributions. We quantified the effects of more frequent fire and lower rainfall – as projected to occur under a warming and drying climate – on population responses of shrub species in biodiverse Mediterranean-climate type shrublands near Eneabba, southwestern Australia. [::] Using experimental fires, we measured the density of all shrub species for four dominant plant functional groups ...

 

Little evidence for fire-adapted plant traits in Mediterranean climate regions

  
Trends in Plant Science, Vol. 16, No. 2. (20 February 2011), pp. 69-76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tplants.2010.10.007

Abstract

As climate change increases vegetation combustibility, humans are impacted by wildfires through loss of lives and property, leading to an increased emphasis on prescribed burning practices to reduce hazards. A key and pervading concept accepted by most environmental managers is that combustible ecosystems have traditionally burnt because plants are fire adapted. In this opinion article, we explore the concept of plant traits adapted to fire in Mediterranean climates. In the light of major threats to biodiversity conservation, we recommend caution in ...

 

Recurrent wildfires constrain long-term reproduction ability in Pinus halepensis Mill.

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 17, No. 5. (2008), 579, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf07078

Abstract

Increasing fire recurrence is a major problem threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Moreover, this pattern is predicted to increase owing to global change. Although a reduction in the density and growth of post-fire regeneration is usually observed in recurrently burnt areas, the potential effects on reproductive ability have seldom been explored. The aim of the present study is to investigate whether structural changes induced by fire recurrence may constrain reproduction ability of Pinus halepensis forests. We conducted the current study in Catalonia (NE ...

 

Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:tiewac>2.3.co;2

Abstract

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...

 

Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

  
Science In Science, Vol. 289, No. 5487. (22 September 2000), pp. 2068-2074, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

Abstract

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense ...

 

Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula

  
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 202 (March 2015), pp. 11-25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] We distinguish four regions with different fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula. [::] Statistical models (meteorology driven) are developed to reproduce burnt area series. [::] We check performances of RCMs simulating present climate burnt area distributions. [::] Different methods to correcting model biases are tested and applied to RCM outputs. [::] Our models project about 2–3 more times mean burnt area in Iberia around 2075. [Abstract] In this work we developed projections for future fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula using outputs from Regional Climate Model ...

 

Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

  
Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 1-2. (2013), pp. 229-247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3

Abstract

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical ...

 

Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!

  
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 117, No. 1-2. (2014), pp. 113-122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0992-z

Abstract

Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction ...

 

Forest disturbances under climate change

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 6. (31 May 2017), pp. 395-402, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3303

Abstract

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are ...

 

Three years to safeguard our climate

  
Nature, Vol. 546, No. 7660. (28 June 2017), pp. 593-595, https://doi.org/10.1038/546593a

Abstract

Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world’s carbon dioxide by 2020. [Excerpt] [...] According to an April report1 (prepared by Carbon Tracker in London, the Climate Action Tracker consortium, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut), should emissions continue to rise beyond 2020, or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable. The UN Sustainable Development Goals that were agreed ...

 

Global risk of deadly heat

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 7. (19 June 2017), pp. 501-506, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3322

Abstract

Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published ...

 

More rain, less soil: long-term changes in rainfall intensity with climate change

  
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Vol. 41, No. 4. (30 March 2016), pp. 563-566, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3868

Abstract

This commentary discusses the role of long-term climate change in driving increases in soil erosion. Assuming that land use and management remain effectively constant, we discuss changes in the ability of rainfall to cause erosion (erosivity), using long daily rainfall data sets from southeast England. An upward trend in mean rainfall per rain day is detected at the century-plus timescale. Implications for soil erosion and sediment delivery are discussed and evidence from other regions reviewed. We conclude that rates of soil ...

 

Divergence of species responses to climate change

  
Science Advances, Vol. 3, No. 5. (17 May 2017), e1603055, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1603055

Abstract

Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73%) than a poleward shift (62%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The ...

 

A climate policy pathway for near- and long-term benefits

  
Science, Vol. 356, No. 6337. (05 May 2017), pp. 493-494, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aak9521

Abstract

The Paris Climate Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) explicitly links the world's long-term climate and near-term sustainable development and poverty eradication agendas. Urgent action is needed, but there are many paths toward the agreement's long-term, end-of-century, 1.5° to 2°C climate target. We propose that reducing short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) enough to slow projected global warming by 0.5°C over the next 25 years be adopted as a near-term goal, with many potential benefits toward achieving Sustainable ...

 

Unmask temporal trade-offs in climate policy debates

  
Science, Vol. 356, No. 6337. (04 May 2017), pp. 492-493, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaj2350

Abstract

Global warming potentials (GWPs) have become an essential element of climate policy and are built into legal structures that regulate greenhouse gas emissions. This is in spite of a well-known shortcoming: GWP hides trade-offs between short- and long-term policy objectives inside a single time scale of 100 or 20 years (1). The most common form, GWP100, focuses on the climate impact of a pulse emission over 100 years, diluting near-term effects and misleadingly implying that short-lived climate pollutants exert forcings in ...

 

Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit

  
WIREs Clim Change, Vol. 8, No. 3. (1 May 2017), n/a, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.454

Abstract

Climate model projections are used to inform policy decisions and constitute a major focus of climate research. Confidence in climate projections relies on the adequacy of climate models for those projections. The question of how to argue for the adequacy of models for climate projections has not gotten sufficient attention in the climate modeling community. The most common way to evaluate a climate model is to assess in a quantitative way degrees of ‘model fit’; that is, how well model results ...

 

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change

  
Global Change Biology (March 2017), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13679

Abstract

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different ...

 

Statistical significance of seasonal warming/cooling trends

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 15. (11 April 2017), pp. E2998-E3003, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1700838114

Abstract

[Significance] The question whether a seasonal climatic trend (e.g., the increase of spring temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance because seasonal climatic trends may considerably affect ecological systems, agricultural yields, and human societies. Previous studies assumed that the seasonal records can be treated as independent and are characterized by short-term memory only. Here we show that both assumptions, which may lead to a considerable overestimation of the trend significance, do not ...

 

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

  
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 12. (01 December 2016), 124013, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124013

Abstract

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement ...

 

Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

  
Keywords: abies-alba   array-of-factors   artificial-neural-networks   bioclimatic-predictors   change-factor   climate-change   data-uncertainty   diversity   environmental-modelling   europe   extrapolation-uncertainty   featured-publication   forest-resources   free-scientific-knowledge   free-scientific-software   free-software   fuzzy   gdal   genetic-diversity   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integration-techniques   mastrave-modelling-library   maximum-habitat-suitability   modelling-uncertainty   multiplicity   peseta-series   python   regional-climate-models   relative-distance-similarity   robust-modelling   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   spatial-disaggregation   sres-a1b   supervised-training   unsupervised-training  

Abstract

[::] In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, their complex interaction with climate change is not yet well understood. [::] The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. [::] Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). [::] Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as case study: a main European tree ...

References

  1. European Commission, 2013. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest based sector. No. COM(2013) 659 final. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:52013DC0659 , INRMM-MiD:12642065 .
  2. European Commission, 2013. Commission staff working document accompanying the document: Communication from the commission to
 

Modeling the impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in Europe: sectorial results of the PESETA II Project

  

Abstract

This constitutes a sectorial analysis of the PESETA II project of the European Commission Joint Research Center in the area of wildfires. [\n] Wildfires are a serious threat to European forests, and climate is the most important driving factor affecting wildfire potential over time (Flannigan et al., 2000). Wildfires are an environmental, economic and social problem particularly in the southern European countries, where wildfires regularly burn thousands of hectares of forests and other lands. Changes in wildfire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystems stability, ...

 

Ecological limits to plant phenotypic plasticity

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 176, No. 4. (December 2007), pp. 749-763, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2007.02275.x

Abstract

Phenotypic plasticity is considered the major means by which plants cope with environmental heterogeneity. Although ubiquitous in nature, actual phenotypic plasticity is far from being maximal. This has been explained by the existence of internal limits to its expression. However, phenotypic plasticity takes place within an ecological context and plants are generally exposed to multifactor environments and to simultaneous interactions with many species. These external, ecological factors may limit phenotypic plasticity or curtail its adaptive value, but seldom have they been ...

 

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

  
Evolutionary Applications, Vol. 7, No. 1. (January 2014), pp. 123-139, https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.12112

Abstract

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, ...

 

Climate twins - An attempt to quantify climatological similarities

  
IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology In Environmental Software Systems. Frameworks of eEnvironment, Vol. 359 (2011), pp. 428-436, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22285-6_46

Abstract

As climate change appears, strategies and actions will be necessary to cope with its effects on environment and society in the coming decades. Current climate conditions can be observed everywhere in the world but future climate conditions can only be estimated through climate simulations which produce huge amounts of quantitative data. This data leads to statements like “temperature increase is expected to exceed 2.6°C” or similar and remain fuzzy to non-experts in climate research. The Climate Twins application is designed to ...

 

Genetic divergence in forest trees: understanding the consequences of climate change

  
Functional Ecology, Vol. 28, No. 1. (February 2014), pp. 22-36, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.12169

Abstract

[::] Predicted climate change is heading in many respects into untested environmental conditions for trees and to the reshuffling of species distributions. We explore the consequences that these changes are likely to have on population differentiation of adaptive traits. Superimposed on the spatial redistribution of the species, will there be a redistribution of their genetic variation? [::] We base our predictions on a conceptual framework, whose elements are the extant differentiation, and the predicted divergent evolution of populations along purposely chosen altitudinal/latitudinal ...

 

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, No. 1. (21 January 2016), pp. 239-253, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-239-2016

Abstract

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The ...

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