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Selection: with tag climate-change [at least 200 articles] 

 

Anthropogenic forcings and associated changes in fire risk in Western North America and Australia during 2015-2016

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective, Vol. 99, No. 1. (January 2018), pp. S60-S64, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0096.1

Abstract

Extreme vapor pressure deficits (VPD) have been associated with enhanced wildfire risk. Using one model, we found for 2015/16 that human influences quintupled the risk of extreme VPD for western North America and increased the risk for extratropical Australia. [Excerpt: Introduction] In 2016, about 3.6 million hectares of land burned in the United States and Canada (NIFC 2017; NFD 2017). In Canada, a wildfire southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, caused the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta’s history and destroyed 2400 homes ...

 

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

  
Ecology Letters (12 December 2017), https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12889

Abstract

Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi-regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post-fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from ...

 

Repeated wildfires alter forest recovery of mixed-conifer ecosystems

  
Ecological Applications, Vol. 26, No. 6. (September 2016), pp. 1842-1853, https://doi.org/10.1890/15-1521.1

Abstract

Most models project warmer and drier climates that will contribute to larger and more frequent wildfires. However, it remains unknown how repeated wildfires alter post-fire successional patterns and forest structure. Here, we test the hypothesis that the number of wildfires, as well as the order and severity of wildfire events interact to alter forest structure and vegetation recovery and implications for vegetation management. In 2014, we examined forest structure, composition, and tree regeneration in stands that burned 1–18 yr before a ...

 

Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 12. (04 December 2017), pp. 2125-2141, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017

Abstract

Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose ...

 

The real cost of energy

  
Nature, Vol. 553, No. 7682. (2017), pp. S145-S147, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-017-07510-3

Abstract

All energy production has environmental and societal effects. But calculating them — and pricing energy accordingly — is no easy task. [Excerpt] [...] Electricity production is rife with externalities. Mining for raw materials often causes water pollution, habitat destruction and socio-economic harm. Burning coal pollutes the air, sickening and killing people, and introduces toxic mercury into the aquatic food chain. Nuclear-power plants require the clean-up and maintenance of radioactive materials after decommissioning. Energy production uses water, sometimes at the expense of agriculture and ...

 

US natural resources and climate change: concepts and approaches for management adaptation

  
Environmental Management, Vol. 44, No. 6. (2009), pp. 1001-1021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-009-9345-1

Abstract

Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; ...

 

Less than 2 °C? An economic-environmental evaluation of the Paris Agreement

  
Ecological Economics, Vol. 146 (April 2018), pp. 69-84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.10.007

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] 188 countries' INDCs have been analysed from a policies, finance and emissions point of view. [::] Policies and finance are faced up with socio-economic and biophysical constraints. [::] Unilateralism and finance approach lead to mismatches between policies and global objectives. [::] Constraints and mismatches could explain the Paris Agreement ineffectiveness. [Abstract] The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies ...

 

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 47. (21 November 2017), pp. E10142-E10150, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708109114

Abstract

[Significance] Climate extremes are major drivers of long-term forest growth trends, but we still lack appropriate knowledge to anticipate their effects. Here, we apply a conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of Circum-Mediterranean Abies refugia in response to climate warming, droughts, and heat waves. Using a tree-ring network and a process-based model, we assess the future vulnerability of Mediterranean Abies forests. Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat ...

 

Warning signs for stabilizing global CO 2 emissions

  
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, No. 11. (01 November 2017), 110202, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9662

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions ...

 

Global carbon budget 2017

  
Earth System Science Data Discussions (13 November 2017), pp. 1-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production ...

 

Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 12. (13 November 2017), pp. 848-850, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. [\n] Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry did not change from 2014 to 2016, yet there was a record increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This apparent inconsistency is explained by the response of the natural carbon cycle to the 2015–2016 El Niño event, but it raises ...

 

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 46. (14 November 2017), pp. 12338-12343, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618308114

Abstract

[Significance] We investigate how future population growth is relevant to climate change policy. The answer depends importantly on ethical questions about whether our ultimate goal should be to increase the number of people who are happy or rather to increase the average level of people’s happiness. We calculate the best (optimal) emissions reduction pathway given each of these two different goals that society might have and calculate how much cheaper it would be to avoid dangerous interference with the climate given a ...

 

How population growth relates to climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 46. (14 November 2017), pp. 12103-12105, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717178114

Abstract

[Excerpt] Currently, around 7.5 billion people live on our planet and scenarios for the future show a plausible range from 8.5 to over 12 billion before the population will level off or start to decline, depending on the future course of fertility and mortality (1, 2). These people will also have to cope with the consequences of climate change that may be in the range of 1.5 °C to more than 3 °C, depending on the scale of mitigation efforts. The ...

 

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

  
Nature Geoscience (13 November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8

Abstract

Earth’s midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which ...

 

World’s carbon emissions set to spike by 2% in 2017

  
Nature, Vol. 551, No. 7680. (13 November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22995

Abstract

Increased coal use in China appears to be driving the first increase in global greenhouse-gas output since 2014. [Excerpt] [...] Humanity’s carbon emissions are likely to surge by 2% in 2017, driven mainly by increased coal consumption in China, scientists reported on 13 November. The unexpected rise would end a three-year period in which emissions have remained flat despite a growing global economy. [...] Several factors caused the world’s CO2 emissions to level out from 2014 to 2016, including an economic slowdown ...

 

Stay or go - How topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change

  
Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics (November 2017), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2017.09.008

Abstract

In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options − they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (“stay”), or they can move to track their climatic niches (“go”). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the ...

 

Spreading like wildfire

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 11. (November 2017), pp. 755-755, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3432

Abstract

The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come? [Excerpt] During January and February, Chile experienced what their president Michelle Bachelet called “The greatest forest disaster in our history”. The nation was not adequately equipped to tackle these fires, leading the government to enact a state of emergency and accept ...

 

Prepare for larger, longer wildfires

  

Abstract

Climate change makes land management more urgent than ever, says Kathie Dello. [Excerpt] [...] Scientists must walk a careful line when attributing specific events to climate change. Wildfires are part of a healthy ecosystem and a fact of life in the western United States. Many aspects of a landscape affect them, including past fire suppression, land use and human carelessness. [\n] But climate change increases the threat: fires that do start are larger and last longer. Warmer summer temperatures mean more evaporation. Overall, ...

 

Natural climate solutions

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 44. (31 October 2017), pp. 11645-11650, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Abstract

[Significance] Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize ...

 

The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

  
Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 67, No. 3-4. (June 2009), pp. 227-236, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.03.013

Abstract

Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in ...

 

Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 14, No. 1. (23 January 2014), pp. 143-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-143-2014

Abstract

Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean ...

 

How have past fire disturbances contributed to the current carbon balance of boreal ecosystems?

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, No. 3. (04 February 2016), pp. 675-690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-675-2016

Abstract

Boreal fires have immediate effects on regional carbon budgets by emitting CO2 into the atmosphere at the time of burning, but they also have legacy effects by initiating a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. Quantifying these different effects on the current-day pan-boreal (44–84° N) carbon balance and quantifying relative contributions of legacy sinks by past fires is important for understanding and predicting the carbon dynamics in this region. Here we used the global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE–SPITFIRE (Organising Carbon and ...

 

Climatological risk: wildfires

  
In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 294-305

Abstract

[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] There is a vast amount of information on wildfires at local, regional and global scales. However, problems remain at different scales in terms of harmonising or standardising practices for the assessment and management of wildfire risk. [\n] Resilience theory is providing a suitable framework by which to explain abrupt changes in socioecological systems. The importance of community participation and building social capital through collective learning and governance mechanisms has been highlighted as a required basis for building disaster resilience (Aldunce et al., 2015; Aldunce et al., 2016; Montiel and Kraus, 2010; O’Brien et al., ...

References

  1. SCION, 2009. Fire behavioiur app. https://www.scionresearch.com/research/forest-science/rural-fire-research/tools/fire-behaviour-smartphone-apps .
  2. NFPA, 2016 Firewise Communities Program. http://www.firewise.org/ .
  3. GOV.UK, n.d. LH1: Management of lowland heathlandhttps://www.gov.uk/countryside-stewardship-grants/management-of-lowland-heathland-lh1 .
  4. KWFW, 2014. Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA):NERC-funded scoping project with Forestry Commission. http://www.kfwf.org.uk/_assets/documents/Wildfire_Threat_Analysis_post-project_report.pdf .
  5. HM Tresaury, 2013. Orange book: management of risk - principles and concepts. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/orange-book .
  6. Cabinet Office, 2015. National Risk
 

General introduction and methodological overview

  
In Ph.D. Thesis: Integrating infra-specific variation of Mediterranean conifers in species distribution models - Applications for vulnerability assessment and conservation (2017), pp. 19-54

Abstract

[Excerpt] [:Forests ecosystems, climate change and conservation] [...] Despite their importance, we have lost approximately 1.3 % of the total forest area during the last decade, and although deforestation rates are decreasing, they are still high (data for the period 2000-2010 [...]). Nevertheless, fortunately, in some regions, such as Europe, we find an inverse trend with an increasing forest cover [...]. In Europe, 33 % of the total land area (215 million ha) are covered by forests from which more than half ...

References

  1. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. a., Wang, T., Curtis-McLane, S., 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95–111.
  2. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.H., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and
 

Well below 2 °C: mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 39. (26 September 2017), pp. 10315-10323, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618481114

Abstract

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 ...

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

 

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible

  
Nature (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2017.22627

Abstract

Analysis suggests that researchers have underestimated how much carbon humanity can emit before reaching this level of warming. [Excerpt] A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will ...

 

A new kind of drought: US record low windiness in 2015

  
IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 9 (2016), 1412470

Abstract

Widespread calming of the wind sapped U.S. wind energy power output in 2015, driven by the same weather patterns responsible for California’s severe drought. [Excerpt: Summary and conclusions] 2015 was a year of records: [::] It was the warmest year on record globally. [::] A highly anomalous ocean warming event in the northeast Pacific (NPM) strongly controlled the weather and climate over North America. [::] A high amplitude ridge of unparalleled strength and longevity over western North America dominated until April 2015. [::] Record low ...

 

Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 8. (24 July 2017), pp. 568-572, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3351

Abstract

The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 17) under a most likely emission scenario, we ...

 

An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, No. 4. (7 October 2011), pp. 485-498, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1

Abstract

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and ...

 

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

  
Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, No. 6. (June 2012), pp. 2041-2056, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02649.x

Abstract

Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area ...

 

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618765114

Abstract

[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...

 

Using n-dimensional hypervolumes for species distribution modelling: a response to Qiao et al.

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 26, No. 9. (September 2017), pp. 1071-1075, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12611

Abstract

Hypervolume approaches are used to quantify functional diversity and quantify environmental niches for species distribution modelling. Recently, Qiao et al. ([1]) criticized our geometrical kernel density estimation (KDE) method for measuring hypervolumes. They used a simulation analysis to argue that the method yields high error rates and makes biased estimates of fundamental niches. Here, we show that (a) KDE output depends in useful ways on dataset size and bias, (b) other species distribution modelling methods make equally stringent but different assumptions ...

 

How disturbance, competition and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

  
Global Change Biology (28 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13847

Abstract

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species’ ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically-based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed ...

 

Legal threat exposes gaps in climate-change planning

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7669. (29 August 2017), pp. 508-509, https://doi.org/10.1038/548508a

Abstract

Australian lawsuit highlights how difficult it is to turn global warming data into useful advice. [Excerpt] [...] Climate scientist Andy Pitman at the Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in Sydney, Australia, says that researchers have been warning companies and governments for years about the need to invest in climate modelling and the related field of climate services, which provides forecasts and other information to public and private users. [...] To be useful, he says, the forecasts would need to be ...

 

Fears rise for US climate report as Trump officials take reins

  
Nature, Vol. 548, No. 7665. (1 August 2017), pp. 15-16, https://doi.org/10.1038/548015a

Abstract

Officials at the US Environmental Protection Agency are consulting global-warming sceptics as they weigh up a technical review. ...

 

Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: a review of influence factors

  
Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 17, No. 5. (2017), pp. 1261-1277, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-1057-5

Abstract

A dietary shift towards reduced meat consumption is an efficient strategy for countering biodiversity loss and climate change in regions (developed and transition countries) where consumption is already at a very high level or is rapidly expanding (such as China). Biodiversity is being degraded and lost to a considerable extent, with 70 % of the world’s deforestation a result of stripping in order to grow animal feed. Furthermore, about 14.5 % of the world’s anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are calculated ...

 

Biodiversity conservation: the key is reducing meat consumption

  
Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 536 (December 2015), pp. 419-431, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.022

Abstract

The consumption of animal-sourced food products by humans is one of the most powerful negative forces affecting the conservation of terrestrial ecosystems and biological diversity. Livestock production is the single largest driver of habitat loss, and both livestock and feedstock production are increasing in developing tropical countries where the majority of biological diversity resides. Bushmeat consumption in Africa and southeastern Asia, as well as the high growth-rate of per capita livestock consumption in China are of special concern. The projected land ...

 

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

  
Nature Climate Change (31 July 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3352

Abstract

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya’s identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960–2010, including the UN’s probabilistic population projections for all countries2, 3, 4, we develop ...

 

Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: why do some plants survive while others succumb to drought?

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 178, No. 4. (1 June 2008), pp. 719-739, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x

Abstract

Severe droughts have been associated with regional-scale forest mortality worldwide. Climate change is expected to exacerbate regional mortality events; however, prediction remains difficult because the physiological mechanisms underlying drought survival and mortality are poorly understood. We developed a hydraulically based theory considering carbon balance and insect resistance that allowed development and examination of hypotheses regarding survival and mortality. Multiple mechanisms may cause mortality during drought. A common mechanism for plants with isohydric regulation of water status results from avoidance of drought-induced ...

 

Climate-driven tree mortality: insights from the piñon pine die-off in the United States

  
New Phytologist, Vol. 200, No. 2. (October 2013), pp. 301-303, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12464

Abstract

The global climate is changing, and a range of negative effects on plants has already been observed and will likely continue into the future. One of the most apparent consequences of climate change is widespread tree mortality (Fig. 1). Extensive tree die-offs resulting from recent climate change have been documented across a range of forest types on all forested continents (Allen et al., 2010). The exact physiological mechanisms causing this mortality are not yet well understood (e.g. McDowell, 2011), but they ...

 

Resistance and resilience to changing climate and fire regime depend on plant functional traits

  
Journal of Ecology, Vol. 102, No. 6. (November 2014), pp. 1572-1581, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12306

Abstract

[Summary] [::] Changing disturbance–climate interactions will drive shifts in plant communities: these effects are not adequately quantified by environmental niche models used to predict future species distributions. We quantified the effects of more frequent fire and lower rainfall – as projected to occur under a warming and drying climate – on population responses of shrub species in biodiverse Mediterranean-climate type shrublands near Eneabba, southwestern Australia. [::] Using experimental fires, we measured the density of all shrub species for four dominant plant functional groups ...

 

Little evidence for fire-adapted plant traits in Mediterranean climate regions

  
Trends in Plant Science, Vol. 16, No. 2. (20 February 2011), pp. 69-76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tplants.2010.10.007

Abstract

As climate change increases vegetation combustibility, humans are impacted by wildfires through loss of lives and property, leading to an increased emphasis on prescribed burning practices to reduce hazards. A key and pervading concept accepted by most environmental managers is that combustible ecosystems have traditionally burnt because plants are fire adapted. In this opinion article, we explore the concept of plant traits adapted to fire in Mediterranean climates. In the light of major threats to biodiversity conservation, we recommend caution in ...

 

Recurrent wildfires constrain long-term reproduction ability in Pinus halepensis Mill.

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 17, No. 5. (2008), 579, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf07078

Abstract

Increasing fire recurrence is a major problem threatening Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Moreover, this pattern is predicted to increase owing to global change. Although a reduction in the density and growth of post-fire regeneration is usually observed in recurrently burnt areas, the potential effects on reproductive ability have seldom been explored. The aim of the present study is to investigate whether structural changes induced by fire recurrence may constrain reproduction ability of Pinus halepensis forests. We conducted the current study in Catalonia (NE ...

 

Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change

  
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3. (1 March 2000), pp. 427-436, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:tiewac>2.3.co;2

Abstract

Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing ...

 

Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

  
Science In Science, Vol. 289, No. 5487. (22 September 2000), pp. 2068-2074, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5487.2068

Abstract

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense ...

 

Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula

  
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 202 (March 2015), pp. 11-25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] We distinguish four regions with different fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula. [::] Statistical models (meteorology driven) are developed to reproduce burnt area series. [::] We check performances of RCMs simulating present climate burnt area distributions. [::] Different methods to correcting model biases are tested and applied to RCM outputs. [::] Our models project about 2–3 more times mean burnt area in Iberia around 2075. [Abstract] In this work we developed projections for future fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula using outputs from Regional Climate Model ...

 

Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

  
Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 1-2. (2013), pp. 229-247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3

Abstract

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical ...

 

Projecting future drought in Mediterranean forests: bias correction of climate models matters!

  
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 117, No. 1-2. (2014), pp. 113-122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0992-z

Abstract

Global and regional climate models (GCM and RCM) are generally biased and cannot be used as forcing variables in ecological impact models without some form of prior bias correction. In this study, we investigated the influence of the bias correction method on drought projections in Mediterranean forests in southern France for the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). We used a water balance model with two different atmospheric climate forcings built from the same RCM simulations but using two different correction ...

 

Forest disturbances under climate change

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 6. (31 May 2017), pp. 395-402, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3303

Abstract

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are ...

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