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Selection: with tag climate-change [at least 200 articles] 


Attribution of recent temperature behaviour reassessed by a neural-network method

Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, No. 1. (15 December 2017),


Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a ...


Agricultural policy can reduce wildfires

Science, Vol. 359, No. 6379. (01 March 2018), pp. 1001.1-1001,


[Excerpt] [...] Agriculture is an important driver of European wildfires. It is a major source of fire ignitions [...]. Additionally, farmland abandonment and policies promoting forestry increase fire hazard, as they lead to vegetation growth and fuel build-up in the landscape [...]. However, agriculture is also part of the solution. Agricultural areas, such as crops, orchards, and grasslands, are much less fire-prone, particularly if they include irrigated crops [...]. The European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a powerful financial instrument ...


Why current negative-emissions strategies remain ‘magical thinking’

Nature, Vol. 554, No. 7693. (22 February 2018), pp. 404-404,


[Excerpt] Decarbonization of the world’s economy would bring colossal disruption of the status quo. It’s a desire to avoid that change — political, financial and otherwise — that drives many of the climate sceptics. Still, as this journal has noted numerous times, it’s clear that many policymakers who argue that emissions must be curbed, and fast, don’t seem to appreciate the scale of what’s required. [...] [\n] The 2015 Paris agreement gave politicians an answer: negative emissions. Technology to reduce the amount ...


Range dynamics of mountain plants decrease with elevation

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 8. (20 February 2018), pp. 1848-1853,


[Significance] Shifts of upper range limits are a key response of mountain biota to climate change. However, assessing whether species profit or suffer from the changing climate requires the simultaneous evaluation of changes in species’ lower and upper range limits, optima, and abundances. Here, we provide an integrated assessment for 183 plant species of the European Alps. We demonstrate that, over recent decades, increases in abundance were more pronounced than range shifts, suggesting an in-filling process which decreases in intensity with increasing ...


Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 18. (02 May 2017), pp. 4582-4590,


Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance ...


Humidity determines snowpack ablation under a warming climate

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 6. (06 January 2018), pp. 1215-1220,


[Significance] Changes in the amount and timing of snowmelt have large effects on water for society and ecosystems. Using long-term records from across the western United States, we demonstrate that atmospheric humidity is a major control on how seasonal snow responds to warming temperatures. Specifically, we observe an increase in the frequency and magnitude of episodic winter melt events under higher humidity that may alter the timing of water availability. In lower-humidity regions, however, warming is associated with increased sublimation and/or evaporation ...


Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (22 January 2018), 201704665,


[Significance] We increasingly rely on global models to project impacts of humans and climate on water resources. How reliable are these models? While past model intercomparison projects focused on water fluxes, we provide here the first comprehensive comparison of land total water storage trends from seven global models to trends from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, which have been likened to giant weighing scales in the sky. The models underestimate the large decadal (2002–2014) trends in water storage relative to ...



In Present and future probability of meteorological and hydrological hazards in Europe (2016), pp. 112-118


[Excerpt: Introduction] Uncontrolled forest fires impact both natural and built-up environments as well as humans. The occurrence of a forest fire requires the same basic elements as any fire: heat, oxygen and fuel. Preceding and prevailing weather conditions are crucial for setting conditions susceptible to fire in a forest. Drought, high temperatures and pronounced evaporation dry off organic material in forests, i.e. the fuel. Strong wind during/after ignition substantially intensifies spreading of the fire and raises the likelihood of the surface ...


Forest fire danger extremes in Europe under climate change: variability and uncertainty

Keywords: adaptation   array-of-factors   biodiversity   biodiversity-impacts   burnt-area   climate-change   climate-extremes   communicating-uncertainty   data-transformation-modelling   data-uncertainty   downscaling   droughts   dynamic-system   ecosystem-resilience   emergent-property   euro-cordex   europe   extreme-events   extreme-weather   fire-damage   fire-danger-rating   fire-management   fire-weather-index   forest-fires   forest-management   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-scientific-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   human-behaviour   humidity   ipcc-scenarios   mastrave-modelling-library   mitigation   modelling-uncertainty   no-analog-pattern   peseta-series   precipitation   rcp85   resilience   resilience-vs-resistance   review   robust-modelling   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   scientific-communication   semantic-array-programming   spatial-pattern   species-richness   species-specific-effects   temperature   vegetation-changes   wildfires   wind  


Forests cover over a third of the total land area of Europe. In recent years, large forest fires have repeatedly affected Europe, in particular the Mediterranean countries. Fire danger is influenced by weather in the short term, and by climate when considering longer time intervals. In this work, the emphasis is on the direct influence on fire danger of weather and climate. [\n] For climate analysis at the continental scale, a daily high-emission scenario (RCP 8.5) was considered up to the end ...


  1. de Rigo, D., Bosco, C., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Houston Durrant, T., Barredo, J. I., Strona, G., Caudullo, G., Di Leo, M., Boca, R., 2016. Forest resources in Europe: an integrated perspective on ecosystem services, disturbances and threats. In: San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Houston Durrant, T., Mauri, A. (Eds.), European Atlas of Forest Tree Species. Publ. Off. EU, Luxembourg, pp. e015b50+. .
  2. Alberdi Asensio, I., Baycheva-Merger, T., Bouvet, A., Bozzano,

Climate impacts from a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions

Geophys. Res. Lett. (24 January 2018), 2017GL076079,


Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface ...


Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections - Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Vol. 28547 EN (2017),


[Executive summary] This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the Peseta III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the Peseta III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe. [\n] The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most ...


Change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s - PESETA-3 project, final sector report on Task 9: Droughts

Vol. 28990 EN (2017),


[Executive summary] This document reports the results of the analyses performed within the framework of the PESETA3 project regarding the Task 9 - Droughts. The main objective of this task is to provide robust scientific-based information to stakeholders and decision makers on the possible impacts of future climate scenarios on the occurrence of drought events. [\n] This report is focused on the analysis of the variations of soil moisture on the European continent, as well as of a soil moisture-based drought severity indicator ...


Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

International Journal of Climatology (09 October 2017),


As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized ...


Seventh national communication and third biennial report from the European Union under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - Required under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

(December 2017)


[Executive summary] [::Introduction] The European Union (EU) and its Member States, both jointly and individually, have engaged in domestic and international action on climate change for a number of years and this has resulted in significant emission reductions. The staff working documents accompanying this report constitute the EU’s seventh national communication as required under Article 12 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Article 7 of the Kyoto Protocol, and its third biennial report as required under Decision 2/CP.17 of the ...


Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first time

Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7685. (2017), pp. 291-292,


Scientists take the bold step of saying phenomena wouldn’t have happened without global warming. [Excerpt] [...] Now, for the first time, climate researchers are reporting that some weather events would have been outright impossible without the warming influence of humanity’s greenhouse-gas emissions. [\n] This kind of confident assertion rarely makes its way into the scientific literature. Yet it appeared in three studies included in a special annual edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) dedicated to attributing the causes of ...


Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

Nature, Vol. 552, No. 7683. (6 December 2017), pp. 45-50,


Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget ...


Anthropogenic forcings and associated changes in fire risk in Western North America and Australia during 2015-2016

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective, Vol. 99, No. 1. (January 2018), pp. S60-S64,


Extreme vapor pressure deficits (VPD) have been associated with enhanced wildfire risk. Using one model, we found for 2015/16 that human influences quintupled the risk of extreme VPD for western North America and increased the risk for extratropical Australia. [Excerpt: Introduction] In 2016, about 3.6 million hectares of land burned in the United States and Canada (NIFC 2017; NFD 2017). In Canada, a wildfire southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, caused the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta’s history and destroyed 2400 homes ...


Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

Ecology Letters (12 December 2017),


Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi-regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post-fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from ...


Repeated wildfires alter forest recovery of mixed-conifer ecosystems

Ecological Applications, Vol. 26, No. 6. (September 2016), pp. 1842-1853,


Most models project warmer and drier climates that will contribute to larger and more frequent wildfires. However, it remains unknown how repeated wildfires alter post-fire successional patterns and forest structure. Here, we test the hypothesis that the number of wildfires, as well as the order and severity of wildfire events interact to alter forest structure and vegetation recovery and implications for vegetation management. In 2014, we examined forest structure, composition, and tree regeneration in stands that burned 1–18 yr before a ...


Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 12. (04 December 2017), pp. 2125-2141,


Currently a paradigm shift is made from global averaged to spatially variable sea level change (SLC) projections. Traditionally, the contribution from ice sheet mass loss to SLC is considered to be symmetrically distributed. However, several assessments suggest that the probability distribution of dynamical ice sheet mass loss is asymmetrically distributed towards higher SLC values. Here we show how asymmetric probability distributions of dynamical ice sheet mass loss impact the high-end uncertainties of regional SLC projections across the globe. For this purpose ...


The real cost of energy

Nature, Vol. 553, No. 7682. (2017), pp. S145-S147,


All energy production has environmental and societal effects. But calculating them — and pricing energy accordingly — is no easy task. [Excerpt] [...] Electricity production is rife with externalities. Mining for raw materials often causes water pollution, habitat destruction and socio-economic harm. Burning coal pollutes the air, sickening and killing people, and introduces toxic mercury into the aquatic food chain. Nuclear-power plants require the clean-up and maintenance of radioactive materials after decommissioning. Energy production uses water, sometimes at the expense of agriculture and ...


US natural resources and climate change: concepts and approaches for management adaptation

Environmental Management, Vol. 44, No. 6. (2009), pp. 1001-1021,


Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; ...


Less than 2 °C? An economic-environmental evaluation of the Paris Agreement

Ecological Economics, Vol. 146 (April 2018), pp. 69-84,


[Highlights] [::] 188 countries' INDCs have been analysed from a policies, finance and emissions point of view. [::] Policies and finance are faced up with socio-economic and biophysical constraints. [::] Unilateralism and finance approach lead to mismatches between policies and global objectives. [::] Constraints and mismatches could explain the Paris Agreement ineffectiveness. [Abstract] The literature dedicated to the analysis of the different climate agreements has usually focused on the effectiveness of the aims for emissions in the light of the advance in climate change. This article quantifies ...


Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 47. (21 November 2017), pp. E10142-E10150,


[Significance] Climate extremes are major drivers of long-term forest growth trends, but we still lack appropriate knowledge to anticipate their effects. Here, we apply a conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of Circum-Mediterranean Abies refugia in response to climate warming, droughts, and heat waves. Using a tree-ring network and a process-based model, we assess the future vulnerability of Mediterranean Abies forests. Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat ...


Warning signs for stabilizing global CO 2 emissions

Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, No. 11. (01 November 2017), 110202,


Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and industry comprise ~90% of all CO2 emissions from human activities. For the last three years, such emissions were stable, despite continuing growth in the global economy. Many positive trends contributed to this unique hiatus, including reduced coal use in China and elsewhere, continuing gains in energy efficiency, and a boom in low-carbon renewables such as wind and solar. However, the temporary hiatus appears to have ended in 2017. For 2017, we project emissions ...


Global carbon budget 2017

Earth System Science Data Discussions (13 November 2017), pp. 1-79,


Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production ...


Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 12. (13 November 2017), pp. 848-850,


The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. [\n] Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry did not change from 2014 to 2016, yet there was a record increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This apparent inconsistency is explained by the response of the natural carbon cycle to the 2015–2016 El Niño event, but it raises ...


Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 46. (14 November 2017), pp. 12338-12343,


[Significance] We investigate how future population growth is relevant to climate change policy. The answer depends importantly on ethical questions about whether our ultimate goal should be to increase the number of people who are happy or rather to increase the average level of people’s happiness. We calculate the best (optimal) emissions reduction pathway given each of these two different goals that society might have and calculate how much cheaper it would be to avoid dangerous interference with the climate given a ...


How population growth relates to climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 46. (14 November 2017), pp. 12103-12105,


[Excerpt] Currently, around 7.5 billion people live on our planet and scenarios for the future show a plausible range from 8.5 to over 12 billion before the population will level off or start to decline, depending on the future course of fertility and mortality (1, 2). These people will also have to cope with the consequences of climate change that may be in the range of 1.5 °C to more than 3 °C, depending on the scale of mitigation efforts. The ...


Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

Nature Geoscience (13 November 2017),


Earth’s midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which ...


World’s carbon emissions set to spike by 2% in 2017

Nature, Vol. 551, No. 7680. (13 November 2017),


Increased coal use in China appears to be driving the first increase in global greenhouse-gas output since 2014. [Excerpt] [...] Humanity’s carbon emissions are likely to surge by 2% in 2017, driven mainly by increased coal consumption in China, scientists reported on 13 November. The unexpected rise would end a three-year period in which emissions have remained flat despite a growing global economy. [...] Several factors caused the world’s CO2 emissions to level out from 2014 to 2016, including an economic slowdown ...


Stay or go - How topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change

Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics (November 2017),


In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options − they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (“stay”), or they can move to track their climatic niches (“go”). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the ...


Spreading like wildfire

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 11. (November 2017), pp. 755-755,


The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come? [Excerpt] During January and February, Chile experienced what their president Michelle Bachelet called “The greatest forest disaster in our history”. The nation was not adequately equipped to tackle these fires, leading the government to enact a state of emergency and accept ...


Prepare for larger, longer wildfires



Climate change makes land management more urgent than ever, says Kathie Dello. [Excerpt] [...] Scientists must walk a careful line when attributing specific events to climate change. Wildfires are part of a healthy ecosystem and a fact of life in the western United States. Many aspects of a landscape affect them, including past fire suppression, land use and human carelessness. [\n] But climate change increases the threat: fires that do start are larger and last longer. Warmer summer temperatures mean more evaporation. Overall, ...


Natural climate solutions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 44. (31 October 2017), pp. 11645-11650,


[Significance] Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize ...


The exceptionally hot summer of 2007 in Athens, Greece — A typical summer in the future climate?

Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 67, No. 3-4. (June 2009), pp. 227-236,


Summer 2007 was abnormally warm for many areas of southeastern Europe, the Balkan peninsula and parts of Asia Minor with departures from the seasonal means exceeding 4 °C in some areas but also distinct periods of extremely hot weather. Greece experienced very likely the warmest summer of its instrumental history with record breaking temperatures being observed at a number of stations. The historical air temperature record of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), extending back to the 19th century, was used in ...


Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 14, No. 1. (23 January 2014), pp. 143-153,


Current trends in the Mediterranean climate, and more specifically in Greece, indicate longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity is on the rise. In the present study, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is used in order to investigate the relationship between fire risk and meteorological conditions in Greece. FWI is a meteorologically based index designed in Canada and used worldwide, including the Mediterranean ...


How have past fire disturbances contributed to the current carbon balance of boreal ecosystems?

Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, No. 3. (04 February 2016), pp. 675-690,


Boreal fires have immediate effects on regional carbon budgets by emitting CO2 into the atmosphere at the time of burning, but they also have legacy effects by initiating a long-term carbon sink during post-fire vegetation recovery. Quantifying these different effects on the current-day pan-boreal (44–84° N) carbon balance and quantifying relative contributions of legacy sinks by past fires is important for understanding and predicting the carbon dynamics in this region. Here we used the global dynamic vegetation model ORCHIDEE–SPITFIRE (Organising Carbon and ...


Climatological risk: wildfires

In Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less, Vol. 28034 (2017), pp. 294-305


[Excerpt: Conclusions and key messages] There is a vast amount of information on wildfires at local, regional and global scales. However, problems remain at different scales in terms of harmonising or standardising practices for the assessment and management of wildfire risk. [\n] Resilience theory is providing a suitable framework by which to explain abrupt changes in socioecological systems. The importance of community participation and building social capital through collective learning and governance mechanisms has been highlighted as a required basis for building disaster resilience (Aldunce et al., 2015; Aldunce et al., 2016; Montiel and Kraus, 2010; O’Brien et al., ...


  1. SCION, 2009. Fire behavioiur app. .
  2. NFPA, 2016 Firewise Communities Program. .
  3. GOV.UK, n.d. LH1: Management of lowland heathland .
  4. KWFW, 2014. Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA):NERC-funded scoping project with Forestry Commission. .
  5. HM Tresaury, 2013. Orange book: management of risk - principles and concepts. .
  6. Cabinet Office, 2015. National Risk

General introduction and methodological overview

In Ph.D. Thesis: Integrating infra-specific variation of Mediterranean conifers in species distribution models - Applications for vulnerability assessment and conservation (2017), pp. 19-54


[Excerpt] [:Forests ecosystems, climate change and conservation] [...] Despite their importance, we have lost approximately 1.3 % of the total forest area during the last decade, and although deforestation rates are decreasing, they are still high (data for the period 2000-2010 [...]). Nevertheless, fortunately, in some regions, such as Europe, we find an inverse trend with an increasing forest cover [...]. In Europe, 33 % of the total land area (215 million ha) are covered by forests from which more than half ...


  1. Aitken, S.N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. a., Wang, T., Curtis-McLane, S., 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications, 1, 95–111.
  2. Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H. (Ted), Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.H., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N., 2010. A global overview of drought and

Well below 2 °C: mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 39. (26 September 2017), pp. 10315-10323,


The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 ...


Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017),


The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...


Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may still be possible

Nature (18 September 2017),


Analysis suggests that researchers have underestimated how much carbon humanity can emit before reaching this level of warming. [Excerpt] A team of climate scientists has delivered a rare bit of good news: it could be easier than previously thought to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as called for in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. But even if the team is right — and some researchers are already questioning the conclusions — heroic efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions will ...


A new kind of drought: US record low windiness in 2015

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 9 (2016), 1412470


Widespread calming of the wind sapped U.S. wind energy power output in 2015, driven by the same weather patterns responsible for California’s severe drought. [Excerpt: Summary and conclusions] 2015 was a year of records: [::] It was the warmest year on record globally. [::] A highly anomalous ocean warming event in the northeast Pacific (NPM) strongly controlled the weather and climate over North America. [::] A high amplitude ridge of unparalleled strength and longevity over western North America dominated until April 2015. [::] Record low ...


Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 8. (24 July 2017), pp. 568-572,


The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events—which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies—is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project’s Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. 17) under a most likely emission scenario, we ...


An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, No. 4. (7 October 2011), pp. 485-498,


The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and ...


Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence and its future trend under climate change in a boreal forest of Northeast China

Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, No. 6. (June 2012), pp. 2041-2056,


Understanding the spatial patterns of fire occurrence and its response to climate change is vital to fire risk mitigation and vegetation management. Focusing on boreal forests in Northeast China, we used spatial point pattern analysis to model fire occurrence reported from 1965 to 2009. Our objectives were to quantitate the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and human influences on patterns of fire occurrence and to map the spatial distribution of fire occurrence density (number of fires occurring over a given area ...


Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652,


[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...


Using n-dimensional hypervolumes for species distribution modelling: a response to Qiao et al.

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 26, No. 9. (September 2017), pp. 1071-1075,


Hypervolume approaches are used to quantify functional diversity and quantify environmental niches for species distribution modelling. Recently, Qiao et al. ([1]) criticized our geometrical kernel density estimation (KDE) method for measuring hypervolumes. They used a simulation analysis to argue that the method yields high error rates and makes biased estimates of fundamental niches. Here, we show that (a) KDE output depends in useful ways on dataset size and bias, (b) other species distribution modelling methods make equally stringent but different assumptions ...


How disturbance, competition and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Global Change Biology (28 July 2017),


Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species’ ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change, disturbance and competitive interactions to produce range shifts are poorly understood. We used a physiologically-based mechanistic landscape model to study these interactions in the northeastern United States. We designed ...

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Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
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Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.