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Selection: van Vuuren:DP [5 articles] 

Publications by author van Vuuren:DP.

Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, No. 5. (13 April 2018), pp. 391-397,


Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, ...


Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 376, No. 2119. (13 April 2018), 20160457,


We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of ...


A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, No. 12. (01 December 2016), 124013,


We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement ...


Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation

Energy Economics, Vol. 31 (21 December 2009), pp. S152-S162,


In this article we explore several scenarios that aim at meeting radiative forcing targets at 4.5, 3.7, 2.9 and 2.6 W/m 2 by 2100. These scenarios are run under the assumption of participation of all countries by 2012 in climate policy and under the assumption of a significant delay in the participation of Russia and non-Annex I countries (up to 2030 and 2050). The study finds the lowest radiative forcing categories to be feasible under full participation, certainly if overshoot of ...


The representative concentration pathways: an overview

Climatic Change In Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 1-2. (1 November 2011), pp. 5-31,


This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m 2 . The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and ...

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