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Selection: Zimmermann:NE [17 articles] 

Publications by author Zimmermann:NE.
 

Range dynamics of mountain plants decrease with elevation

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 8. (20 February 2018), pp. 1848-1853, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1713936115

Abstract

[Significance] Shifts of upper range limits are a key response of mountain biota to climate change. However, assessing whether species profit or suffer from the changing climate requires the simultaneous evaluation of changes in species’ lower and upper range limits, optima, and abundances. Here, we provide an integrated assessment for 183 plant species of the European Alps. We demonstrate that, over recent decades, increases in abundance were more pronounced than range shifts, suggesting an in-filling process which decreases in intensity with increasing ...

 

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, No. 36. (05 September 2017), pp. 9647-9652, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618765114

Abstract

[Significance] Conventional greenhouse gas mitigation policies ignore the role of global wetlands in emitting methane (CH4) from feedbacks associated with changing climate. Here we investigate wetland feedbacks and whether, and to what degree, wetlands will exceed anthropogenic 21st century CH4 emissions using an ensemble of climate projections and a biogeochemical methane model with dynamic wetland area and permafrost. Our results reveal an emerging contribution of global wetland CH4 emissions due to processes mainly related to the sensitivity of methane emissions to temperature ...

 

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1729-1749, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x

Abstract

Abstract Aim  This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location  State of Vaud, ...

 

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

  
Scientific Data, Vol. 4 (Sep 2017), 170122, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122

Abstract

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. ...

 

CHELSA climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas (Version 1.1)

  

Abstract

CHELSA_v1.1 (http://chelsa-climate.org/) is a high resolution (30 arc sec, ~1 km) climate data set for the earth land surface areas. It includes monthly and annual mean temperature and precipitation patterns as well as derived bioclimatic and interannual parameters for the time period 1979-2013. CHELSA_v1.1 is based on a quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling of the ERA interim global circulation model (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim) with a GPCC (https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/gpcc/gpcc.html) and GHCN (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ghcnm/) bias correction. ...

 

Where, why and how? Explaining the low-temperature range limits of temperate tree species

  
Journal of Ecology, Vol. 104, No. 4. (July 2016), pp. 1076-1088, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12574

Abstract

Attempts at explaining range limits of temperate tree species still rest on correlations with climatic data that lack a physiological justification. Here, we present a synthesis of a multidisciplinary project that offers mechanistic explanations. Employing climatology, biogeography, dendrology, population and reproduction biology, stress physiology and phenology, we combine results from in situ elevational (Swiss Alps) and latitudinal (Alps vs. Scandinavia) comparisons, from reciprocal common garden and phytotron studies for eight European broadleaf tree species. [\n] We show that ...

 

Climate change and European forests: what do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

  
Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 146 (2014), pp. 69-83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Uncertainty is inherent to climate change impact assessments. [::] Extreme events are only weakly represented in many assessments. [::] The range of possible impacts has so far been underestimated in most studies. [::] Some general trends are common to all climate projections. [::] Guidance is needed to interpret state-of-the-art knowledge and give helpful advice. [Abstract] The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body ...

 

Plant functional traits have globally consistent effects on competition

  
Nature, Vol. 529, No. 7585. (14 January 2016), pp. 204-207, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16476

Abstract

[Headlines] Data from millions of trees in thousands of locations are used to show that certain key traits affect competitive ability in predictable ways, and that there are trade-offs between traits that favour growth with and without competition. [Abstract] Phenotypic traits and their associated trade-offs have been shown to have globally consistent effects on individual plant physiological functions, but how these effects scale up to influence competition, a key driver of community assembly in terrestrial vegetation, has remained unclear. Here we use growth data ...

 

Environmental portfolio of central European tree species (Appendix S1)

  
(2014)

Abstract

The PorTree project has generated a suite of species distribution (=habitat suitability) models (SDMs) for tree species of the European Alps. These encompass all major tree species of Switzerland, and include also some that can be expected to become suitable under climate change in the near or farther future. To do so, we compiled forest inventory data for the whole Alps, spanning the whole country area of Switzerland, Austria, and Slovenia, and including the parts the Alps and adjacent areas for ...

 

Climate change impacts on tree species, forest properties, and ecosystem services

  
In Toward Quantitative Scenarios of Climate Change Impacts in Switzerland (2014), pp. 79-88

Abstract

[::] Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. [::] Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful preci- pitation, but in the ...

 

Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, No. 3. (23 September 2012), pp. 203-207, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1687

Abstract

European forests, covering more than 2 million km2 or 32% of the land surface1, are to a large extent intensively managed and support an important timber industry. Climate change is expected to strongly affect tree species distribution within these forests2, 3. Climate and land use are undergoing rapid changes at present4, with initial range shifts already visible5. However, discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated on ecological issues6. Here we show that forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation may have severe ...

 

Competitive interactions between forest trees are driven by species' trait hierarchy, not phylogenetic or functional similarity: implications for forest community assembly

  
Ecology Letters, Vol. 15, No. 8. (August 2012), pp. 831-840, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01803.x

Abstract

The relative importance of competition vs. environmental filtering in the assembly of communities is commonly inferred from their functional and phylogenetic structure, on the grounds that similar species compete most strongly for resources and are therefore less likely to coexist locally. This approach ignores the possibility that competitive effects can be determined by relative positions of species on a hierarchy of competitive ability. Using growth data, we estimated 275 interaction coefficients between tree species in the French mountains. We show that ...

 

Climate change and European forests: what do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

  
Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 146 (December 2014), pp. 69-83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] Uncertainty is inherent to climate change impact assessments. [::] Extreme events are only weakly represented in many assessments. [::] The range of possible impacts has so far been underestimated in most studies. [::] Some general trends are common to all climate projections. [::] Guidance is needed to interpret state-of-the-art knowledge and give helpful advice. [Abstract] The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a ...

 

Using Niche-Based Models to Improve the Sampling of Rare Species

  
Conservation Biology, Vol. 20, No. 2. (1 April 2006), pp. 501-511, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00354.x

Abstract

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is ...

 

Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology

  
Ecological Modelling, Vol. 135, No. 2-3. (5 December 2000), pp. 147-186, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3800(00)00354-9

Abstract

With the rise of new powerful statistical techniques and GIS tools, the development of predictive habitat distribution models has rapidly increased in ecology. Such models are static and probabilistic in nature, since they statistically relate the geographical distribution of species or communities to their present environment. A wide array of models has been developed to cover aspects as diverse as biogeography, conservation biology, climate change research, and habitat or species management. In this paper, we present a review of predictive habitat ...

 

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

  
Ecography, Vol. 29, No. 2. (1 April 2006), pp. 129-151, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x

Abstract

Prediction of species’ distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only ...

 

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 22, No. 3. (1 March 2013), pp. 302-317, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00767.x

Abstract

[Aim] Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. [Location]  Europe. [Methods]  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of ...

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