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Selection: Wintle:BA [4 articles] 

Publications by author Wintle:BA.
 

Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure

  
Ecography, Vol. 40, No. 8. (1 August 2017), pp. 913-929, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02881

Abstract

Ecological data often show temporal, spatial, hierarchical (random effects), or phylogenetic structure. Modern statistical approaches are increasingly accounting for such dependencies. However, when performing cross-validation, these structures are regularly ignored, resulting in serious underestimation of predictive error. One cause for the poor performance of uncorrected (random) cross-validation, noted often by modellers, are dependence structures in the data that persist as dependence structures in model residuals, violating the assumption of independence. Even more concerning, because often overlooked, is that structured data also ...

 

Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 24, No. 3. (February 2015), pp. 276-292, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12268

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to inform a range of ecological, biogeographical and conservation applications. However, users often underestimate the strong links between data type, model output and suitability for end-use. We synthesize current knowledge and provide a simple framework that summarizes how interactions between data type and the sampling process (i.e. imperfect detection and sampling bias) determine the quantity that is estimated by a SDM. We then draw upon the published literature and simulations to illustrate and evaluate the ...

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Allocating monitoring effort in the face of unknown unknowns

  
Ecology Letters, Vol. 13, No. 11. (1 November 2010), pp. 1325-1337, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01514.x

Abstract

Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 1325–1337 Abstract There is a growing view that to make efficient use of resources, ecological monitoring should be hypothesis-driven and targeted to address specific management questions. ‘Targeted’ monitoring has been contrasted with other approaches in which a range of quantities are monitored in case they exhibit an alarming trend or provide ad hoc ecological insights. The second form of monitoring, described as surveillance, has been criticized because it does not usually aim to discern between competing hypotheses, ...

 

Climate change, connectivity and conservation decision making: back to basics

  
Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol. 46, No. 5. (October 2009), pp. 964-969, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2009.01695.x

Abstract

The challenge of climate change forces us to re-examine the assumptions underlying conservation planning. [\n] Increasing ‘connectivity’ has emerged as the most favoured option for conservation in the face of climate change. [\n] We argue that the importance of connectivity is being overemphasized: quantifying the benefits of connectivity per se is plagued with uncertainty, and connectivity can be co-incidentally improved by targeting more concrete metrics: habitat area and habitat quality. [::Synthesis and applications] Before investing in connectivity projects, conservation practitioners should ...

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