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Selection: Thuiller:W [18 articles] 

Publications by author Thuiller:W.

Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure

Ecography, Vol. 40, No. 8. (1 August 2017), pp. 913-929,


Ecological data often show temporal, spatial, hierarchical (random effects), or phylogenetic structure. Modern statistical approaches are increasingly accounting for such dependencies. However, when performing cross-validation, these structures are regularly ignored, resulting in serious underestimation of predictive error. One cause for the poor performance of uncorrected (random) cross-validation, noted often by modellers, are dependence structures in the data that persist as dependence structures in model residuals, violating the assumption of independence. Even more concerning, because often overlooked, is that structured data also ...


Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1704-1711,


[Aim]  Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. [Location]  The Western Cape of South Africa. [Methods]  We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential ...


BIOMOD - A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

Ecography, Vol. 32, No. 3. (1 June 2009), pp. 369-373,


BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions ...


Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve-selection methods

Global Change Biology, Vol. 10, No. 9. (September 2004), pp. 1618-1626,


Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using ...


Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Science, Vol. 310, No. 5752. (25 November 2005), pp. 1333-1337,


Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, “surplus land” ...


Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 14, No. 1. (1 January 2005), pp. 17-30,


[Aim] One of the limitations to using species’ distribution atlases in conservation planning is their coarse resolution relative to the needs of local planners. In this study, a simple approach to downscale original species atlas distributions to a finer resolution is outlined. If such a procedure yielded accurate downscaled predictions, then it could be an aid to using available distribution atlases in real-world local conservation decisions. [Location]  Europe. [Methods]  An iterative procedure based on generalized additive modelling is used to downscale original ...


Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change

Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, No. 9. (1 September 2005), pp. 1504-1513,


Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate-change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for events that have not yet occurred. Resubstituition and data partitioning of present-day data sets are, therefore, commonly used to test the predictive ...


BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change

Global Change Biology, Vol. 9, No. 10. (1 October 2003), pp. 1353-1362,


A new computation framework (BIOMOD: BIOdiversity MODelling) is presented, which aims to maximize the predictive accuracy of current species distributions and the reliability of future potential distributions using different types of statistical modelling methods. BIOMOD capitalizes on the different techniques used in static modelling to provide spatial predictions. It computes, for each species and in the same package, the four most widely used modelling techniques in species predictions, namely Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Classification and Regression Tree ...


From introduction to the establishment of alien species: bioclimatic differences between presence and reproduction localities in the slider turtle

Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 15, No. 1. (January 2009), pp. 108-116,


[Aim]  Understanding the factors determining the transition from introduction of aliens to the establishment of invasive populations is a critical issue of the study of biological invasions, and has key implications for management. Differences in fitness among areas of introduction can define the zones where aliens become invasive. The American slider turtle Trachemys scripta has been introduced worldwide, and has negative effects on freshwater communities, but only a subset of introduced populations breed successfully. We used species distribution models to assess ...


Competitive interactions between forest trees are driven by species' trait hierarchy, not phylogenetic or functional similarity: implications for forest community assembly

Ecology Letters, Vol. 15, No. 8. (August 2012), pp. 831-840,


The relative importance of competition vs. environmental filtering in the assembly of communities is commonly inferred from their functional and phylogenetic structure, on the grounds that similar species compete most strongly for resources and are therefore less likely to coexist locally. This approach ignores the possibility that competitive effects can be determined by relative positions of species on a hierarchy of competitive ability. Using growth data, we estimated 275 interaction coefficients between tree species in the French mountains. We show that ...


Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability

Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 4. (August 2004), pp. 437-448,


Habitat suitability models can be generated using methods requiring information on species presence or species presence and absence. Knowledge of the predictive performance of such methods becomes a critical issue to establish their optimal scope of application for mapping current species distributions under different constraints. Here, we use breeding bird atlas data in Catalonia as a working example and attempt to analyse the relative performance of two methods: the Ecological Niche factor Analysis (ENFA) using presence data only and Generalised Linear ...


Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change-Range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 259, No. 11. (2010), pp. 2213-2222,


We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in ...


Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

Nature, Vol. 470, No. 7335. (24 February 2011), pp. 531-534,


Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes1, 2, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history3, 4, 5. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we ...


Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

by Tarekegn Abeku, Pamela Abuodha, Francis Adesina, Neil Adger, John Agard, Pramod Aggarwal, Maureen Agnew, Micheline Agoli-Agbo, Shardul Agrawala, Will Agricole, Qazi Ahmad, Rais Akhtar, Mozaharul Alam, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Jean Andrey, Oleg Anisimov, Yurij Anokhin, John Antle, Miguel Araujo, Julie Arblaster, Nigel Arnell, Jun Asanuma, Julius Atlhopheng, Samar Attaher, Shiv Attri, Walter Baethgen, Manzhu Bao, Chris Barlow, Bryson Bates, Punsalmaa Batima, Susanne Becken, Paul Beggs, Martin Beniston, Frans Berkhout, Richard Betts, Suruchi Bhadwal, Bonizella Biagini, Marco Bindi, Richard Black, Michel Boko, William Bond, Lahouari Bounoua, Keith Brander, Antoinette Brenkert, Lino Briguglio, Abigail Bristow, Michael Brklacich, Nick Brooks, Barbara Brown, Sarah Burch, Virginia Burkett, Ian Burton, Sandy Cairncross, Terry Callaghan, Josep Canadell, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Dan Cayan, Jean-Paul Ceron, Lynda Chambers, Netra Chhetri, Torben Christensen, Bernard Clot, Jorge Codignotto, Stewart Cohen, Anthony Coleman, Cecilia Conde, Ulisses Confalonieri, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Roman Corobov, Isabelle Côté, Patricia Craig, Judith Cranage, Rex V. Cruz, David Cruz Choque, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, Jacqueline de Chazal, John de Ronde, Mike Demuth, Fatima Denton, Sophie des Clers, Robert Devoy, Oagile Dikinya, Andrew F. Dlugolecki, Petra Döll, Thomas Downing, Pauline Dube, Ghislain Dubois, Matt Dunn, Mark Dyurgerov, William Easterling, Kristie Ebi, Martin Edwards, Seita Emori, Brenna Enright, Francisco Estrada, Nicole Estrella, Pete Falloon, Daidu Fan, Samuel Fankhauser, Christopher Field, Adam Finkel, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Donald Forbes, James Ford, Bernard Francou, Christopher Furgal, Hans-Martin Füssel, Carlos Gay Garcia, Christos Giannakopoulos, Simone Gigli, Juan C. Giménez, Andrew Githeko, Mukiri Githendu, Brij Gopal, Vivien Gornitz, Stefan Gossling, Phil Graham, Donna Green, Antoine Guisan, Dimitrios Gyalistras, Wilfreid Haeberli, Simon Hales, Jim Hall, Stephane Hallegatte, Alan Hamlet, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Nicholas Harvey, Maria Hauengue, John Hay, Deborah Hemming, Roderick Henderson, Kevin Hennessy, Anne Henshaw, Karim Hilmi, Alistair Hobday, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Yasushi Honda, Christopher Hope, Mark Howden, Terence Hughes, Lesley Hughes, Saleemul Huq, Guy Hutton, Ana Iglesias, Anton Imeson, Sirajul Islam, Mostafa Jafari, Tony Janetos, Erik Jeppesen, Simon Jetté-Nantel, Blanca E. Jimenez, Roger Jones, Gregory Jones, Hui Ju, Pavel Kabat, Lucka Kajfež-Bogataj, Milind Kandlikar, Manmohan Kapshe, David Karoly, Georg Kaser, Klaus Keller, Gavin Kenny, Wulf Killmann, Darren King, Andrei Kirilenko, Tord Kjellstrom, Richard Klein, Christian Körner, Paul Kovacs, Sari Kovats, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Petro Lakyda, Murari Lal, Joseph Lam, Rodel Lasco, Rik Leemans, Penehuro Lefale, Maria-Carmen Lemos, Nancy Lewis, Shuangcheng Li, Congxian Li, Tran V. Lien, Erda Lin, Chunzhen Liu, Diana Liverman, Irene Lorenzoni, Geoff Love, Jason Lowe, Xianfu Lu, Wolfgang Lucht, Nick Lunn, Zhuguo Ma, Dena Mac Mynowski, Terry Mader, Christopher Magadza, Graciela Magrin, David Major, Elizabeth Malone, Susan Mann, Harvey Marchant, José Marengo, Anil Markandya, Eric Martin, Michael Mastrandrea, Luis J. Mata, Glenn McGregor, Kathleen McInnes, Roger McLean, Linda Mearns, Mahmoud Medany, Bettina Menne, Annette Menzel, Guy Midgley, Kathleen Miller, Scott Mills, Evan Mills, Nobuo Mimura, Charles K. Minns, Monirul Q. Mirza, Alison Misselhorn, Patricia Morellato, Ana R. Moreno, José Moreno, John Morton, Linda Mortsch, Susanne Moser, Tushar Moulik, Robert Muir-Wood, Gustavo Nagy, Taito Nakalevu, Mark Nearing, Ron Neilson, Frederick Nelson, Peter Neofotis, Isabelle Niang, Robert Nicholls, Nguyen H. Ninh, Carlos Nobre, Belá Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Mark Nuttall, Anthony Nyong, Karen O’Brien, Brian O’Neill, Catherine O’Reilly, Imoh Obioh, Anthony Ogbonna, Taikan Oki, Jørgen Olesen, Michael Oppenheimer, Balgis Osman, Hubert N. Ouaga, Gianna Palmer, Jean Palutikof, Faizal Parish, Martin Parry, Anthony Patt, Anand Patwardhan, Jonathan Patz, Rolph Payet, Tristan Pearce, Martin Pêcheux, Guy Penny, Rosa Perez, Christopher Pfeiffer, Christian Pfister, Barrie Pittock, Jeff Price, Terry Prowse, Christel Prudhomme, Juan Pulhin, Roger Pulwarty, Sachooda Ragoonaden, Atiq Rahman, Samuel Rawlins, Tim Reeder, James Reist, Boris Revich, Richard Richels, John Robinson, Xavier Rodo, Rafael Rodriguez Acevedo, Patricia Romero Lankao, Terry Root, George Rose, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Mark Rounsevell, Steve Running, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Susanne Rupp-Armstrong, David Sailor, Yoshiki Saito, Jim Salinger, Mark Saunders, Josef Schmidhuber, Stephen Schneider, Roland Schulze, Michael Scott, Daniel Scott, Roger Sedjo, Bernard Seguin, Graham Sem, Serguei Semenov, Zekai Sen, Ashok Sharma, Igor Shiklomanov, Arun Shreshtha, Priyadarshi Shukla, Anatoly Shvidenko, Barry Smit, Kirk Smith, Joel Smith, William Solecki, Jean-Francois Soussana, Tim Sparks, Tom Spencer, John Stone, Kate Studd, Avelino Suarez, John Sweeney, Ramadjita Tabo, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Juan Tarazona, Anna Taylor, Claudia Tebaldi, Renoj Thayyen, Madeleine Thomson, Wilfred Thuiller, Christina Tirado, Alexander Todorov, Richard Tol, Ferenc Toth, Maria Travasso, Piotr Tryjanowski, Francesco Tubiello, Carol Turley, Nick van de Giesen, Jelle van Minnen, Henk van Schaik, Detlef van Vuuren, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Jef Vandenberghe, David Vaughan, Andrei Velichko, Marta Vicarelli, Hjalmar Vilhjalmsson, Alicia Villamizar, Katherine Vincent, David Viner, Coleen Vogel, John Walsh, Johanna Wandel, Rachel Warren, Richard Warrick, Richard Washington, Paul Watkiss, Ellen Wiegandt, Tom Wilbanks, Robert Wilby, Tanja Wolf, Johanna Wolf, Poh P. Wong, Colin Woodroffe, Rosalie Woodruff, Alistair Woodward, Fred Wrona, Qigang Wu, Shaohong Wu, Farhana Yamin, Pius Yanda, Gary Yohe, Ricardo Zapata-Marti, Qiaomin Zhang, Gina Ziervogel, Monika Zurek


Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of the impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of natural and human environments, and the potential for response through adaptation. The report: • evaluates evidence that recent observed changes in climate have already affected a variety of physical and biological systems and concludes that these effects can be attributed to global warming; • makes a detailed assessment of the impacts of future climate change and sea-level rise ...


Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

Ecology Letters, Vol. 8, No. 9. (1 September 2005), pp. 993-1009,


In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction ...


Do we need land-cover data to model species distributions in Europe?

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 31, No. 3. (1 March 2004), pp. 353-361,


Aim  To assess the influence of land cover and climate on species distributions across Europe. To quantify the importance of land cover to describe and predict species distributions after using climate as the main driver. Location  The study area is Europe. Methods  (1) A multivariate analysis was applied to describe land-cover distribution across Europe and assess if the land cover is determined by climate at large spatial scales. (2) To evaluate the importance of land cover to predict species distributions, we ...


Biodiversity: climate change and the ecologist

Nature, Vol. 448, No. 7153. (01 August 2007), pp. 550-552,


The evidence for rapid climate change now seems overwhelming. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 4 °C by 2100, with associated alterations in precipitation patterns. Assessing the consequences for biodiversity, and how they might be mitigated, is a Grand Challenge in ecology. ...


Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 102, No. 23. (07 June 2005), pp. 8245-8250,


Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. ...

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