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Selection: Svenning:J [11 articles] 

Publications by author Svenning:J.

Stay or go - How topographic complexity influences alpine plant population and community responses to climate change

Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics (November 2017),


In the face of climate change, populations have two survival options − they can remain in situ and tolerate the new climatic conditions (“stay”), or they can move to track their climatic niches (“go”). For sessile and small-stature organisms like alpine plants, staying requires broad climatic tolerances, realized niche shifts due to changing biotic interactions, acclimation through plasticity, or rapid genetic adaptation. Going, in contrast, requires good dispersal and colonization capacities. Neither the magnitude of climate change experienced locally nor the ...


Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe

Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 3. (June 2004), pp. 366-380,


The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible consequences of climate change on a representative sample of forest herbs in Europe. A fuzzy climatic envelope was used to predict the location of suitable climatic conditions under two climatic change scenarios. Expected consequences in terms of lost and gained range size and shift in distribution for 26 forest herbs were estimated. These results were combined in an Index of Predicted Range Change for each species. Finally, the effects of habitat ...


Predicting plant species richness in a managed forest

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 180, No. 1-3. (July 2003), pp. 583-593,


This paper describes an attempt to predict ground flora species richness under various forest management scenarios. The approach is based on a geographic information system (GIS) and uses three standard map layers of topography, soils and stands to derive environmental gradients of light, nutrients, water and disturbance. A simple floristic survey provides the data necessary to relate plant distribution with environmental variables. The potential distribution of 60 understorey plant species is modelled based on the four derived gradients. The sum of ...


Strong paleoclimatic legacies in current plant functional diversity patterns across Europe

Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, No. 10. (1 May 2016), pp. 3405-3416,


Numerous studies indicate that environmental changes during the late Quaternary have elicited long-term disequilibria between species diversity and environment. Despite its importance for ecosystem functioning, the importance of historical environmental conditions as determinants of FD (functional diversity) remains largely unstudied. We quantified the geographic distributions of plant FD (richness and dispersion) across Europe using distribution and functional trait information for 2702 plant species. We then compared the importance of historical and contemporary factors to determine the relevance of past conditions as ...


European Vegetation Archive (EVA): an integrated database of European vegetation plots

Applied Vegetation Science, Vol. 19, No. 1. (August 2015), pp. 173-180,
by Milan Chytrý, Stephan M. Hennekens, Borja Jiménez-Alfaro, Ilona Knollová, Jürgen Dengler, Florian Jansen, Flavia Landucci, Joop H. J. Schaminée, Svetlana Aćić, Emiliano Agrillo, Didem Ambarlı, Pierangela Angelini, Iva Apostolova, Fabio Attorre, Christian Berg, Erwin Bergmeier, Idoia Biurrun, Zoltán Botta-Dukát, Henry Brisse, Juan A. Campos, Luis Carlón, Andraž Čarni, Laura Casella, János Csiky, Renata Ćušterevska, Zora Dajić Stevanović, Jiří Danihelka, Els De Bie, Patrice de Ruffray, Michele De Sanctis, W. Bernhard Dickoré, Panayotis Dimopoulos, Dmytro Dubyna, Tetiana Dziuba, Rasmus Ejrnaes, Nikolai Ermakov, Jörg Ewald, Giuliano Fanelli, Federico Fernández-González, Úna FitzPatrick, Xavier Font, Itziar García-Mijangos, Rosario G. Gavilán, Valentin Golub, Riccardo Guarino, Rense Haveman, Adrian Indreica, Deniz Işık Gürsoy, Ute Jandt, John A. M. Janssen, Martin Jiroušek, Zygmunt Kącki, Ali Kavgacı, Martin Kleikamp, Vitaliy Kolomiychuk, Mirjana Krstivojević Ćuk, Daniel Krstonošić, Anna Kuzemko, Jonathan Lenoir, Tatiana Lysenko, Corrado Marcenò, Vassiliy Martynenko, Dana Michalcová, Jesper E. Moeslund, Viktor Onyshchenko, Hristo Pedashenko, Aaron Pérez-Haase, Tomáš Peterka, Vadim Prokhorov, Valerijus Rašomavičius, Maria P. Rodríguez-Rojo, John S. Rodwell, Tatiana Rogova, Eszter Ruprecht, Solvita Rūsiņa, Gunnar Seidler, Jozef Šibík, Urban Šilc, Željko Škvorc, Desislava Sopotlieva, Zvjezdana Stančić, Jens-Christian Svenning, Grzegorz Swacha, Ioannis Tsiripidis, Pavel D. Turtureanu, Emin Uğurlu, Domas Uogintas, Milan Valachovič, Yulia Vashenyak, Kiril Vassilev, Roberto Venanzoni, Risto Virtanen, Lynda Weekes, Wolfgang Willner, Thomas Wohlgemuth, Sergey Yamalov


The European Vegetation Archive (EVA) is a centralized database of European vegetation plots developed by the IAVS Working Group European Vegetation Survey. It has been in development since 2012 and first made available for use in research projects in 2014. It stores copies of national and regional vegetation- plot databases on a single software platform. Data storage in EVA does not affect on-going independent development of the contributing databases, which remain the property of the data contributors. EVA uses a prototype ...


Disequilibrium vegetation dynamics under future climate change

American Journal of Botany, Vol. 100, No. 7. (01 July 2013), pp. 1266-1286,


• Premise of the study: Near-future climate changes are likely to elicit major vegetation changes. Disequilibrium dynamics, which occur when vegetation comes out of equilibrium with climate, are potentially a key facet of these. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for making accurate predictions, informing conservation planning, and understanding likely changes in ecosystem function on time scales relevant to society. However, many predictive studies have instead focused on equilibrium end-points with little consideration of the transient trajectories. • Methods: We review what we ...


Strong upslope shifts in Chimborazo's vegetation over two centuries since Humboldt

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (14 September 2015), 201509938,


[Significance] Tropical regions harbor the majority of the world’s biodiversity, but there is debate about whether montane species here are able to track global warming at the same rate as in temperate regions. By following in Humboldt's footsteps and revisiting his pioneering documentation of vegetation elevation ranges, we show that the limit of plant growth has already been strongly pushed upslope. Although the rate of plant range shifts matches that found in other studies, the total magnitude of change in vegetation and ...

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Could the tree diversity pattern in Europe be generated by postglacial dispersal limitation?

Ecology Letters, Vol. 10, No. 6. (June 2007), pp. 453-460,


The relative importance of contemporary climate and history as controls of geographical diversity patterns is intensely debated. A key example is the controversy over the extent to which temperate tree distributions and diversity patterns reflect postglacial dispersal limitation. Here, we focus on Central and Northern Europe, and show that recent estimates of tree migration rates < 100 m year−1 imply that many species have probably not reached equilibrium with climate in this region. We then demonstrate that geographical accessibility from glacial refuges explains 78% ...


Ice age legacies in the geographical distribution of tree species richness in Europe

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 16, No. 2. (1 March 2007), pp. 234-245,
Keywords: abies-alba   abies-borisii-regis   abies-cephalonica   abies-pinsapo   alnus-cordata   alnus-glutinosa   alnus-incana   betula-pendula   betula-pubescens   carpinus-betulus   castanea-sativa   celtis-australis   climate-change   corylus-colurna   fagus-orientalis   fagus-sylvatica   forest-resources   juglans-regia   juniperus-drupacea   juniperus-excelsa   larix-decidua   laurus-nobilis   ostrya-carpinifolia   paleo-climate   picea-abies   picea-omorika   pinus-brutia   pinus-cembra   pinus-halepensis   pinus-heldreichii   pinus-nigra   pinus-peuce   pinus-pinaster   pinus-pinea   pinus-sylvestris   populus-alba   populus-nigra   populus-tremula   quercus-canariensis   quercus-cerris   quercus-faginea   quercus-frainetto   quercus-ilex   quercus-pedunculiflora   quercus-petraea   quercus-pubescens   quercus-pyrenaica   quercus-robur   quercus-rotundifolia   quercus-sicula   quercus-suber   salix-alba   salix-fragilis   taxus-baccata   ulmus-glabra   ulmus-laevis   ulmus-minor  


Aim  This study uses a high-resolution simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate to assess: (1) whether LGM climate still affects the geographical species richness patterns in the European tree flora and (2) the relative importance of modern and LGM climate as controls of tree species richness in Europe. Location  The parts of Europe that were unglaciated during the LGM. Methods  Atlas data on the distributions of 55 tree species were linked with data on modern and LGM climate and ...


Applications of species distribution modeling to paleobiology

Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 30, No. 21-22. (October 2011), pp. 2930-2947,


[Highlights] [::] Species distribution modeling (SDM) offers new possibilities for paleobiology. [::] Key methods issues include predictors, validation, and integration with genetics. [::] Many SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia. [::] SDM-based studies also address megafaunal extinctions and deep-time biogeography. [::] The equilibrium postulate and niche stability constitute important assumptions. [Abstract] Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for ...


Limited filling of the potential range in European tree species

Ecology Letters, Vol. 7, No. 7. (01 June 2004), pp. 565-573,


The relative roles of environment and history in controlling large-scale species distributions are important not only theoretically, but also for forecasting range responses to climatic change. Here, we use atlas data to examine the extent to which 55 tree species fill their climatically determined potential ranges in Europe. Quantifying range filling (R/P) as realized/potential range size ratios using bioclimatic envelope modelling we find mean R/P = 38.3% (±30.3% SD). Many European tree species naturalize extensively outside their native ranges, providing support for interpreting ...

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