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Selection: Stott:PA [3 articles] 

Publications by author Stott:PA.

Anthropogenic forcings and associated changes in fire risk in Western North America and Australia during 2015-2016

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society In Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective, Vol. 99, No. 1. (January 2018), pp. S60-S64,


Extreme vapor pressure deficits (VPD) have been associated with enhanced wildfire risk. Using one model, we found for 2015/16 that human influences quintupled the risk of extreme VPD for western North America and increased the risk for extratropical Australia. [Excerpt: Introduction] In 2016, about 3.6 million hectares of land burned in the United States and Canada (NIFC 2017; NFD 2017). In Canada, a wildfire southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, caused the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta’s history and destroyed 2400 homes ...


Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

Nature, Vol. 470, No. 7334. (17 February 2011), pp. 382-385,


Human emissions of greenhouse gasses  and related warming  have been shown to be an influence on global and regional warming and on broad-scale precipitation changes. But so far, assessing the human imprint on specific weather events has proven difficult. Now, publicly contributed climate simulations are used to show that increased greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence during the catastrophic 2000 England and Wales floods. ...


Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to human-induced climate change?

Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, No. 6. (28 March 2013), pp. 1177-1181,


This study applies the technique of event attribution to the East African rainy seasons preceding the drought of 2011. Using observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice conditions with a state-of-the-art atmosphere model, the precipitation totals during late 2010 (the “short rains”) and early 2011 (the “long rains”) were simulated hundreds of times to produce possible distributions of precipitation. Alternative distributions of precipitation were produced consistent with a world with neither anthropogenic forcings nor human influence on SSTs and sea ice. ...

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