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Selection: Seidl:R [11 articles] 

Publications by author Seidl:R.

To model or not to model, that is no longer the question for ecologists

Ecosystems, Vol. 20, No. 2. (2017), pp. 222-228,


Here, I argue that we should abandon the division between “field ecologists” and “modelers,” and embrace modeling and empirical research as two powerful and often complementary approaches in the toolbox of 21st century ecologists, to be deployed alone or in combination depending on the task at hand. As empirical research has the longer tradition in ecology, and modeling is the more recent addition to the methodological arsenal, I provide both practical and theoretical reasons for integrating modeling more deeply into ecosystem ...


Forest disturbances under climate change

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 6. (31 May 2017), pp. 395-402,


Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are ...


Unraveling the drivers of intensifying forest disturbance regimes in Europe

Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, No. 9. (September 2011), pp. 2842-2852,


Natural disturbances like wildfire, windthrow and insect outbreaks are critical drivers of composition, structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. They are strongly climate-sensitive, and are thus likely to be distinctly affected by climatic changes. Observations across Europe show that in recent decades, forest disturbance regimes have intensified markedly, resulting in a strong increase in damage from wind, bark beetles and wildfires. Climate change is frequently hypothesized as the main driving force behind this intensification, but changes in forest structure and composition ...


Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: tree-level heterogeneity matters

Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 51 (2014), pp. 1-11,


Abstract Wind is the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe's forest ecosystems. In recent years, disturbance frequency and severity have been increasing at continental scale, a trend that is expected to continue under future anthropogenic climate change. Disturbance management is thus increasingly important for sustainable stewardship of forests, and requires tools to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and climatic changes on disturbance risk and ecosystem services. We here present a process-based model of wind disturbance impacts on forest ecosystems, integrated ...


Climate change increases the drought risk in Central European forests: what are the options for adaptation?

Forestry Journal, Vol. 60, No. 1. (1 January 2014),


The paper presents information on the projected drought exposure of Central Europe, describes the anticipated dynamics of the regional forests, and identifies measures facilitating the adaptation of forests to climate change-induced drought risk. On the basis of an ensemble of climate change scenarios we expect substantial drying in southern Slovakia and Hungary, while such trends were found to be less pronounced for the Czech Republic and Austria. In response to these climate trajectories, a change in species composition towards a higher ...


Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management

Environmental Management In Environmental Management, Vol. 46, No. 6. (19 December 2010), pp. 850-861,


The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, ...


Impacts of climate change on European forests and options for adaptation



[Excerpt] This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe and reviews options for forests and forestry to adapt to climate change. It has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission as an initial exploration of this complex issue. Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. Adaptation ...


Climate change impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability of European forest ecosystems

Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 259, No. 4. (16 February 2010), pp. 698-709,


This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged drought, storms and floods. Sensitivity, potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to climate change are reviewed for European forests. The most important potential impacts of climate change on forest goods and services are ...


Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage

Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, No. 9. (3 August 2014), pp. 806-810,


Disturbances from wind, bark beetles and wildfires have increased in Europe’s forests throughout the twentieth century1. Climatic changes were identified as a key driver behind this increase2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe’s forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget3, 4, and are suggested to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe’s forests5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase ...


Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

Ecological Modelling, Vol. 222, No. 4. (26 February 2011), pp. 903-924,


Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework founded in disturbance ecology to analyze modelling approaches for drought, wind, forest fires, insect pests ...


Potential stocks and increments of woody biomass in the European Union under different management and climate scenarios

Carbon Balance and Management, Vol. 8, No. 1. (2013), 2,


[Background] Forests play an important role in the global carbon flow. They can store carbon and can also provide wood which can substitute other materials. In EU27 the standing biomass is steadily increasing. Increments and harvests seem to have reached a plateau between 2005 and 2010. One reason for reaching this plateau will be the circumstance that the forests are getting older. High ages have the advantage that they typical show high carbon concentration and the disadvantage that the increment rates are ...

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