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Selection: Schleussner:C [3 articles] 

Publications by author Schleussner:C.

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Nature, Vol. 558, No. 7708. (6 June 2018), pp. 41-49,


The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. ...


Climate impacts from a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions

Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, No. 2. (28 January 2018), pp. 1020-1029,


Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface ...


Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, No. 33. (16 August 2016), pp. 9216-9221,


[Significance] Ethnic divides play a major role in many armed conflicts around the world and might serve as predetermined conflict lines following rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. We find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalized countries. Although we find no indications that environmental disasters directly trigger armed conflicts, our results imply that disasters might act as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s ...

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