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Selection: Osborn:TJ [4 articles] 

Publications by author Osborn:TJ.
 

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, No. 24. (12 June 2018), pp. 6243-6248, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718945115

Abstract

[Significance] This study is a multigeneral circulation model, multiscenario modeling exercise developed to quantify the dengue-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5–2.0 °C above preindustrial levels in Latin America and the Caribbean. We estimate the impact of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases and provide insights about the regions and periods most likely affected by changes in the length of the transmission season. Here, we show that future climate change may amplify dengue ...

 

Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss

  
Nature Clim. Change, Vol. 3, No. 7. (12 July 2013), pp. 678-682, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1887

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have significant influences on terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. However, little is known about how mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could reduce biodiversity impacts, particularly amongst common and widespread species. Our global analysis of future climatic range change of common and widespread species shows that without mitigation, 57±6% of plants and 34±7% of animals are likely to lose ...

 

A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 8. (25 February 2014), pp. 2903-2908, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319238111

Abstract

[Significance] This paper describes the production and climatic interpretation of a tree-ring width chronology that is currently the longest, absolutely dated series produced for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and one of the longest in the world. The method of chronology construction enables comparison of variations in precipitation totals over long timescales as well as shorter periods. Precipitation in this region during the last 50 years has been historically high—likely higher than for any equivalent length period in at least 3,500 years, ...

 

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

  
Nature Clim. Change, Vol. 3, No. 5. (13 May 2013), pp. 512-519, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1793

Abstract

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here—which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2 °C temperature rise target—reduces impacts by 20–65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway which reaches 4 °C, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary between sectors and regions, and only a few ...

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