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Selection: Nordhaus:W [2 articles] 

Publications by author Nordhaus:W.

Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (14 May 2018), 201713628,


[Significance] This study develops estimates of uncertainty in projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates through 2100, comparing estimates from expert forecasts and an econometric approach designed to analyze long-run trends and variability. Estimates from both methods indicate substantially higher uncertainty than is assumed in current studies of climate change impacts, damages, and adaptation. Results from this study suggest a greater than 35% probability that emissions concentrations will exceed those assumed in the most severe of the available climate change ...


Determining benefits and costs for future generations

Science, Vol. 341, No. 6144. (26 July 2013), pp. 349-350,


In economic project analysis, the rate at which future benefits and costs are discounted relative to current values often determines whether a project passes the benefit-cost test. This is especially true of projects with long time horizons, such as those to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Whether the benefits of climate policies, which can last for centuries, outweigh the costs, many of which are borne today, is especially sensitive to the rate at which future benefits are discounted. This is also ...

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