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Selection: Millar:RJ [2 articles] 

Publications by author Millar:RJ.
 

The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

  
Nature, Vol. 558, No. 7708. (6 June 2018), pp. 41-49, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4

Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. ...

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

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