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Selection: Koutsias:N [7 articles] 

Publications by author Koutsias:N.
 

Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

  
Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 1-2. (2013), pp. 229-247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0787-3

Abstract

The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical ...

 

Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 14, No. 1. (03 January 2014), pp. 21-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-21-2014

Abstract

Historical fire records and meteorological observations spanning over one century (1894–2010) were assembled in a database to collect long-term fire and weather data in Greece. Positive/negative events of fire occurrence on an annual basis were considered as the years where the annual values of the examined parameters were above (positive values) or below (negative values) the 95% confidence limits around the trend line of the corresponding parameter. To analyse the association of positive/negative events of fire occurrence with meteorological extremes, we ...

 

Modelling long-term fire occurrence factors in Spain by accounting for local variations with geographically weighted regression

  
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 13, No. 2. (11 February 2013), pp. 311-327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-311-2013

Abstract

Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore ...

 

Landscape - wildfire interactions in southern Europe: Implications for landscape management

  
Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 92, No. 10. (October 2011), pp. 2389-2402, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.028

Abstract

[Abstract] Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with ...

 

On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894-2010)

  
International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 22, No. 4. (2013), 493, https://doi.org/10.1071/wf12003

Abstract

Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air ...

 

Decreasing fires in Mediterranean Europe

  
PLoS ONE, Vol. 11, No. 3. (16 March 2016), e0150663, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0150663

Abstract

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the ...

 

Modelling the eco-cultural niche of giant chestnut trees: new insights into land use history in southern Switzerland through distribution analysis of a living heritage

  
Journal of Historical Geography, Vol. 38, No. 4. (October 2012), pp. 372-386, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2012.01.018

Abstract

During the Middle Ages and the early modern period the cultivation of the chestnut tree became dominant in various mountain regions in Western Europe. Large numbers of giant chestnut trees have been reported throughout the continent that may be considered the living heritage of this period. In this paper we used a systematic inventory of giant chestnut trees in southern Switzerland for reconstructing the eco-cultural niche related to the long-term cultivation and conservation of such remarkable trees. To this purpose we ...

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