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Selection: Holmgren:M [4 articles] 

Publications by author Holmgren:M.
 

Fire forbids fifty-fifty forest

  
PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, No. 1. (19 January 2018), e0191027, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191027

Abstract

Recent studies have interpreted patterns of remotely sensed tree cover as evidence that forest with intermediate tree cover might be unstable in the tropics, as it will tip into either a closed forest or a more open savanna state. Here we show that across all continents the frequency of wildfires rises sharply as tree cover falls below ~40%. Using a simple empirical model, we hypothesize that the steepness of this pattern causes intermediate tree cover (30‒60%) to be unstable for a ...

 

Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: approaches and challenges

  
Journal of Ecology, Vol. 103, No. 1. (January 2015), pp. 5-15, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12337

Abstract

[::] Anthropogenic global change compromises forest resilience, with profound impacts to ecosystem functions and services. This synthesis paper reflects on the current understanding of forest resilience and potential tipping points under environmental change and explores challenges to assessing responses using experiments, observations and models. [::] Forests are changing over a wide range of spatio-temporal scales, but it is often unclear whether these changes reduce resilience or represent a tipping point. Tipping points may arise from interactions across scales, as processes such as ...

 

Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems

  
Science, Vol. 347, No. 6228. (20 March 2015), pp. 1317-1319, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa3769

Abstract

Although some ecosystem responses to climate change are gradual, many ecosystems react in highly nonlinear ways. They show little response until a threshold or tipping point is reached where even a small perturbation may trigger collapse into a state from which recovery is difficult (1). Increasing evidence shows that the critical climate level for such collapse may be altered by conditions that can be managed locally. These synergies between local stressors and climate change provide potential opportunities for proactive management. Although ...

 

Are drought and wildfires turning Mediterranean cork oak forests into persistent shrublands?

  
Agroforestry Systems In Agroforestry Systems, Vol. 76, No. 2. (2009), pp. 389-400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-008-9165-y

Abstract

In the Iberian Peninsula Mediterranean oak forests have been transformed into a mosaic landscape of four main patch-types: forests, savannas, shrublands and grasslands. We used aerial photographs over a period of 45 years (1958–2002) to quantify the persistence and rates of transitions between vegetation patch-types in southern Portugal, where cork oak is the dominant tree species. We used logistic regression to relate vegetation changes with topographical features and wildfire history. Over the 45 years, shrublands have been the most persistent patch-type (59%), and ...

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