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Selection: Gutiérrez:JM [3 articles] 

Publications by author Gutiérrez:JM.

Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 202 (March 2015), pp. 11-25,


[Highlights] [::] We distinguish four regions with different fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula. [::] Statistical models (meteorology driven) are developed to reproduce burnt area series. [::] We check performances of RCMs simulating present climate burnt area distributions. [::] Different methods to correcting model biases are tested and applied to RCM outputs. [::] Our models project about 2–3 more times mean burnt area in Iberia around 2075. [Abstract] In this work we developed projections for future fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula using outputs from Regional Climate Model ...


Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling

Climatic Change, Vol. 120, No. 1-2. (2013), pp. 229-247,


The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical ...


Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

Climatic Change, Vol. 122, No. 1-2. (2014), pp. 185-199,


We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System—recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827–840, 2013)—we ...

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