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Selection: Guisan:A [14 articles] 

Publications by author Guisan:A.
 

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

  
Ecography, Vol. 41, No. 6. (July 2018), pp. 982-995, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02990

Abstract

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage ...

 

Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1729-1749, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x

Abstract

Abstract Aim  This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location  State of Vaud, ...

 

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 38, No. 8. (August 2011), pp. 1433-1444, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02550.x

Abstract

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realized properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate the properties of assemblages. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single ‘spatially explicit species assemblage modelling’ (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant designations of initial species source pools for modelling, macroecological variables, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition ...

 

Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

  
Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (1 October 2006), pp. 1677-1688, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01584.x

Abstract

Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved ...

 

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions

  
Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 29, No. 5. (7 August 2014), pp. 260-269, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2014.02.009

Abstract

[Highlights] [::] We propose a unifying framework for assessing niche shifts from empirical data. [::] We base it on a review of studies of niche changes during biological invasions. [::] It decomposes niche changes and accounts for environmental availability and analogy. [::] This unifying framework allows proper comparison of existing and future niche studies. [::] It can also guide management under global change and the design of niche change experiments. [Summary] Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change ...

 

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

  
Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 24, No. 4. (1 July 2013), pp. 593-606, https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12002

Abstract

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence ...

 

Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  
(2008)
by Tarekegn Abeku, Pamela Abuodha, Francis Adesina, Neil Adger, John Agard, Pramod Aggarwal, Maureen Agnew, Micheline Agoli-Agbo, Shardul Agrawala, Will Agricole, Qazi Ahmad, Rais Akhtar, Mozaharul Alam, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Jean Andrey, Oleg Anisimov, Yurij Anokhin, John Antle, Miguel Araujo, Julie Arblaster, Nigel Arnell, Jun Asanuma, Julius Atlhopheng, Samar Attaher, Shiv Attri, Walter Baethgen, Manzhu Bao, Chris Barlow, Bryson Bates, Punsalmaa Batima, Susanne Becken, Paul Beggs, Martin Beniston, Frans Berkhout, Richard Betts, Suruchi Bhadwal, Bonizella Biagini, Marco Bindi, Richard Black, Michel Boko, William Bond, Lahouari Bounoua, Keith Brander, Antoinette Brenkert, Lino Briguglio, Abigail Bristow, Michael Brklacich, Nick Brooks, Barbara Brown, Sarah Burch, Virginia Burkett, Ian Burton, Sandy Cairncross, Terry Callaghan, Josep Canadell, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Dan Cayan, Jean-Paul Ceron, Lynda Chambers, Netra Chhetri, Torben Christensen, Bernard Clot, Jorge Codignotto, Stewart Cohen, Anthony Coleman, Cecilia Conde, Ulisses Confalonieri, Jan Corfee-Morlot, Roman Corobov, Isabelle Côté, Patricia Craig, Judith Cranage, Rex V. Cruz, David Cruz Choque, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, Jacqueline de Chazal, John de Ronde, Mike Demuth, Fatima Denton, Sophie des Clers, Robert Devoy, Oagile Dikinya, Andrew F. Dlugolecki, Petra Döll, Thomas Downing, Pauline Dube, Ghislain Dubois, Matt Dunn, Mark Dyurgerov, William Easterling, Kristie Ebi, Martin Edwards, Seita Emori, Brenna Enright, Francisco Estrada, Nicole Estrella, Pete Falloon, Daidu Fan, Samuel Fankhauser, Christopher Field, Adam Finkel, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris, Donald Forbes, James Ford, Bernard Francou, Christopher Furgal, Hans-Martin Füssel, Carlos Gay Garcia, Christos Giannakopoulos, Simone Gigli, Juan C. Giménez, Andrew Githeko, Mukiri Githendu, Brij Gopal, Vivien Gornitz, Stefan Gossling, Phil Graham, Donna Green, Antoine Guisan, Dimitrios Gyalistras, Wilfreid Haeberli, Simon Hales, Jim Hall, Stephane Hallegatte, Alan Hamlet, Clair Hanson, Hideo Harasawa, Nicholas Harvey, Maria Hauengue, John Hay, Deborah Hemming, Roderick Henderson, Kevin Hennessy, Anne Henshaw, Karim Hilmi, Alistair Hobday, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Yasushi Honda, Christopher Hope, Mark Howden, Terence Hughes, Lesley Hughes, Saleemul Huq, Guy Hutton, Ana Iglesias, Anton Imeson, Sirajul Islam, Mostafa Jafari, Tony Janetos, Erik Jeppesen, Simon Jetté-Nantel, Blanca E. Jimenez, Roger Jones, Gregory Jones, Hui Ju, Pavel Kabat, Lucka Kajfež-Bogataj, Milind Kandlikar, Manmohan Kapshe, David Karoly, Georg Kaser, Klaus Keller, Gavin Kenny, Wulf Killmann, Darren King, Andrei Kirilenko, Tord Kjellstrom, Richard Klein, Christian Körner, Paul Kovacs, Sari Kovats, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Petro Lakyda, Murari Lal, Joseph Lam, Rodel Lasco, Rik Leemans, Penehuro Lefale, Maria-Carmen Lemos, Nancy Lewis, Shuangcheng Li, Congxian Li, Tran V. Lien, Erda Lin, Chunzhen Liu, Diana Liverman, Irene Lorenzoni, Geoff Love, Jason Lowe, Xianfu Lu, Wolfgang Lucht, Nick Lunn, Zhuguo Ma, Dena Mac Mynowski, Terry Mader, Christopher Magadza, Graciela Magrin, David Major, Elizabeth Malone, Susan Mann, Harvey Marchant, José Marengo, Anil Markandya, Eric Martin, Michael Mastrandrea, Luis J. Mata, Glenn McGregor, Kathleen McInnes, Roger McLean, Linda Mearns, Mahmoud Medany, Bettina Menne, Annette Menzel, Guy Midgley, Kathleen Miller, Scott Mills, Evan Mills, Nobuo Mimura, Charles K. Minns, Monirul Q. Mirza, Alison Misselhorn, Patricia Morellato, Ana R. Moreno, José Moreno, John Morton, Linda Mortsch, Susanne Moser, Tushar Moulik, Robert Muir-Wood, Gustavo Nagy, Taito Nakalevu, Mark Nearing, Ron Neilson, Frederick Nelson, Peter Neofotis, Isabelle Niang, Robert Nicholls, Nguyen H. Ninh, Carlos Nobre, Belá Nováky, Leonard Nurse, Mark Nuttall, Anthony Nyong, Karen O’Brien, Brian O’Neill, Catherine O’Reilly, Imoh Obioh, Anthony Ogbonna, Taikan Oki, Jørgen Olesen, Michael Oppenheimer, Balgis Osman, Hubert N. Ouaga, Gianna Palmer, Jean Palutikof, Faizal Parish, Martin Parry, Anthony Patt, Anand Patwardhan, Jonathan Patz, Rolph Payet, Tristan Pearce, Martin Pêcheux, Guy Penny, Rosa Perez, Christopher Pfeiffer, Christian Pfister, Barrie Pittock, Jeff Price, Terry Prowse, Christel Prudhomme, Juan Pulhin, Roger Pulwarty, Sachooda Ragoonaden, Atiq Rahman, Samuel Rawlins, Tim Reeder, James Reist, Boris Revich, Richard Richels, John Robinson, Xavier Rodo, Rafael Rodriguez Acevedo, Patricia Romero Lankao, Terry Root, George Rose, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Mark Rounsevell, Steve Running, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Susanne Rupp-Armstrong, David Sailor, Yoshiki Saito, Jim Salinger, Mark Saunders, Josef Schmidhuber, Stephen Schneider, Roland Schulze, Michael Scott, Daniel Scott, Roger Sedjo, Bernard Seguin, Graham Sem, Serguei Semenov, Zekai Sen, Ashok Sharma, Igor Shiklomanov, Arun Shreshtha, Priyadarshi Shukla, Anatoly Shvidenko, Barry Smit, Kirk Smith, Joel Smith, William Solecki, Jean-Francois Soussana, Tim Sparks, Tom Spencer, John Stone, Kate Studd, Avelino Suarez, John Sweeney, Ramadjita Tabo, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Juan Tarazona, Anna Taylor, Claudia Tebaldi, Renoj Thayyen, Madeleine Thomson, Wilfred Thuiller, Christina Tirado, Alexander Todorov, Richard Tol, Ferenc Toth, Maria Travasso, Piotr Tryjanowski, Francesco Tubiello, Carol Turley, Nick van de Giesen, Jelle van Minnen, Henk van Schaik, Detlef van Vuuren, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Jef Vandenberghe, David Vaughan, Andrei Velichko, Marta Vicarelli, Hjalmar Vilhjalmsson, Alicia Villamizar, Katherine Vincent, David Viner, Coleen Vogel, John Walsh, Johanna Wandel, Rachel Warren, Richard Warrick, Richard Washington, Paul Watkiss, Ellen Wiegandt, Tom Wilbanks, Robert Wilby, Tanja Wolf, Johanna Wolf, Poh P. Wong, Colin Woodroffe, Rosalie Woodruff, Alistair Woodward, Fred Wrona, Qigang Wu, Shaohong Wu, Farhana Yamin, Pius Yanda, Gary Yohe, Ricardo Zapata-Marti, Qiaomin Zhang, Gina Ziervogel, Monika Zurek

Abstract

Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date scientific assessment of the impacts of climate change, the vulnerability of natural and human environments, and the potential for response through adaptation. The report: • evaluates evidence that recent observed changes in climate have already affected a variety of physical and biological systems and concludes that these effects can be attributed to global warming; • makes a detailed assessment of the impacts of future climate change and sea-level rise ...

 

Using Niche-Based Models to Improve the Sampling of Rare Species

  
Conservation Biology, Vol. 20, No. 2. (1 April 2006), pp. 501-511, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00354.x

Abstract

Because data on rare species usually are sparse, it is important to have efficient ways to sample additional data. Traditional sampling approaches are of limited value for rare species because a very large proportion of randomly chosen sampling sites are unlikely to shelter the species. For these species, spatial predictions from niche-based distribution models can be used to stratify the sampling and increase sampling efficiency. New data sampled are then used to improve the initial model. Applying this approach repeatedly is ...

 

Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology

  
Ecological Modelling, Vol. 135, No. 2-3. (5 December 2000), pp. 147-186, https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3800(00)00354-9

Abstract

With the rise of new powerful statistical techniques and GIS tools, the development of predictive habitat distribution models has rapidly increased in ecology. Such models are static and probabilistic in nature, since they statistically relate the geographical distribution of species or communities to their present environment. A wide array of models has been developed to cover aspects as diverse as biogeography, conservation biology, climate change research, and habitat or species management. In this paper, we present a review of predictive habitat ...

 

Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data

  
Ecography, Vol. 29, No. 2. (1 April 2006), pp. 129-151, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x

Abstract

Prediction of species’ distributions is central to diverse applications in ecology, evolution and conservation science. There is increasing electronic access to vast sets of occurrence records in museums and herbaria, yet little effective guidance on how best to use this information in the context of numerous approaches for modelling distributions. To meet this need, we compared 16 modelling methods over 226 species from 6 regions of the world, creating the most comprehensive set of model comparisons to date. We used presence-only ...

 

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

  
Ecology Letters, Vol. 8, No. 9. (1 September 2005), pp. 993-1009, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x

Abstract

In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction ...

 

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

  
Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 22, No. 3. (1 March 2013), pp. 302-317, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00767.x

Abstract

[Aim] Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. [Location]  Europe. [Methods]  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of ...

 

Response to Comment on “Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders”

  
Science, Vol. 338, No. 6104. (12 October 2012), pp. 193-193, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1226051

Abstract

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of ...

 

Climatic Niche Shifts Are Rare Among Terrestrial Plant Invaders

  
Science, Vol. 335, No. 6074. (16 March 2012), pp. 1344-1348, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215933

Abstract

The assumption that climatic niche requirements of invasive species are conserved between their native and invaded ranges is key to predicting the risk of invasion. However, this assumption has been challenged recently by evidence of niche shifts in some species. Here, we report the first large-scale test of niche conservatism for 50 terrestrial plant invaders between Eurasia, North America, and Australia. We show that when analog climates are compared between regions, fewer than 15% of species have more than 10% of ...

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