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Selection: Friedlingstein:P [8 articles] 

Publications by author Friedlingstein:P.
 

Global carbon budget 2017

  
Earth System Science Data Discussions (13 November 2017), pp. 1-79, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production ...

 

Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions

  
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, No. 12. (13 November 2017), pp. 848-850, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. [\n] Emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels and industry did not change from 2014 to 2016, yet there was a record increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This apparent inconsistency is explained by the response of the natural carbon cycle to the 2015–2016 El Niño event, but it raises ...

 

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

  
Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017), https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031

Abstract

The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...

 

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

  
Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, No. 11. (09 June 2016), pp. 3359-3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016

Abstract

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or ...

 

IPCC fifth assessment synthesis report - Climate Change 2014 synthesis report

  
(1 November 2014)

Abstract

The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 (AR4). The SYR synthesizes the main findings of the AR5 (IPCC) based on contributions from Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change), plus two additional IPCC reports ...

 

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

  
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 6. (10 January 2009), pp. 1704-1709, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106

Abstract

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly ...

 

Interactions of the carbon cycle, human activity, and the climate system: a research portfolio

  
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 2, No. 4. (October 2010), pp. 301-311, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2010.08.003

Abstract

There has never been a greater need for delivering timely and policy-relevant information on the magnitude and evolution of the human-disturbed carbon cycle. In this paper, we present the main thematic areas of an ongoing global research agenda and prioritize future needs based on relevance for the evolution of the carbon–climate–human system. These include firstly, the delivery of routine updates of global and regional carbon budgets, including its attribution of variability and trends to underlying drivers; secondly, the assessment of the ...

 

Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003

  
Nature, Vol. 437, No. 7058. (22 September 2005), pp. 529-533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972

Abstract

Future climate warming is expected to enhance plant growth in temperate ecosystems and to increase carbon sequestration1, 2. But although severe regional heatwaves may become more frequent in a changing climate3, 4, their impact on terrestrial carbon cycling is unclear. Here we report measurements of ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes, remotely sensed radiation absorbed by plants, and country-level crop yields taken during the European heatwave in 2003. We use a terrestrial biosphere simulation model5 to assess continental-scale changes in primary productivity during ...

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