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Selection: Flannigan:M [10 articles] 

Publications by author Flannigan:M.

A global index for mapping the exposure of water resources to wildfire

Forests, Vol. 7, No. 1. (13 January 2016), 22,


Wildfires are keystone components of natural disturbance regimes that maintain ecosystem structure and functions, such as the hydrological cycle, in many parts of the world. Consequently, critical surface freshwater resources can be exposed to post-fire effects disrupting their quantity, quality and regularity. Although well studied at the local scale, the potential extent of these effects has not been examined at the global scale. We take the first step toward a global assessment of the wildfire water risk (WWR) by presenting a ...


Forest fires in a changing climate and their impacts on air quality

Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 45, No. 31. (October 2011), pp. 5545-5553,


[Abstract] In a future climate scenario forest fire activity over Portugal will substantially increase and consequently area burned and forest fire emissions to the atmosphere are also expected to increase. This study investigated the impact of future forest fire emissions on air quality over Portugal under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Reference and future climate change scenarios were simulated using the MM5/CHIMERE air quality modelling system, which was applied over Europe and over Portugal, using nesting capabilities. The initial and boundary ...


Climate change and forest fires

Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 262, No. 3. (15 November 2000), pp. 221-229,


This paper addresses the impacts of climate change on forest fires and describes how this, in turn, will impact on the forests of the United States. In addition to reviewing existing studies on climate change and forest fires we have used two transient general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre and the Canadian GCMs, to estimate fire season severity in the middle of the next century. Ratios of 2×CO2 seasonal severity rating (SSR) over present day SSR were calculated for ...


A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada (1953-80)

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 27, No. 4. (1 April 1988), pp. 441-452,<0441:asotro>;2


The relation between meteorological variables and the monthly area burned by wildfire from May to August 1953–80 in nine Canadian “provinces” was investigated. A purely statistical approach to estimating the monthly provincial area burned, using meteorological variables as predictors, succeeded in explaining 30% of the variance west of Lake Nipigon and about 11% east of Lake Nipigon. [\n] Long sequences of days with less than 1.5 mm of rain or days with relative humidities less than 60% proved to have the highest ...


Climate, weather, and area burned

In Forest fires - Behavior and ecological effects (2001), pp. 351-373


[Excerpt: Introduction] Forest fires are strongly linked to weather and climate (Flannigan and Harrington, 1988; Johnson, 1992; Swetnam, 1993). Fire has been an integral ecological process since the arrival of vegetation on the landscape. For the purposes of this chapter, we will define weather as short-term processes that result in variations in the atmospheric conditions ranging from minutes to a fire season. Processes that influence the atmosphere over time periods longer than a fire season will be defined as climate. There are several factors that control the ...


Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming

Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 9, No. 4. (August 1998), pp. 469-476,


Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850), wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency. Simulations of present and future fire regimes, using daily outputs from the General Circulation Model (GCM), were in good agreement with recent trends observed ...


Climate change and wildfire in Canada

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 21, No. 1. (1 January 1991), pp. 66-72,


This study investigates the impact of postulated greenhouse warming on the severity of the forest fire season in Canada. Using CO2 levels that are double those of the present (2 × CO2), simulation results from three general circulation models (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Oregon State University) were used to calculate the seasonal severity ratings for six stations across Canada. Monthly anomalies from the 2 × CO2 simulation results were superimposed over historical sequences of daily weather. Then, seasonal severity ...


Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 17, No. 3. (2008), 328,


The relationships among the weather, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components, the monthly area burned, and the number of fire occurrences from 1980 to 2004 were investigated in 11 Portuguese districts that represent respectively 66% and 61% of the total area burned and number of fires in Portugal. A statistical approach was used to estimate the monthly area burned and the monthly number of fires per district, using meteorological variables and FWI System components as predictors. The approach succeeded ...


Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire

International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 18, No. 5. (2009), pp. 483-507,


Wildland fire is a global phenomenon, and a result of interactions between climate–weather, fuels and people. Our climate is changing rapidly primarily through the release of greenhouse gases that may have profound and possibly unexpected impacts on global fire activity. The present paper reviews the current understanding of what the future may bring with respect to wildland fire and discusses future options for research and management. To date, research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence but there ...


Climate change and forest disturbances

BioScience, Vol. 51, No. 9. (1 September 2001), pp. 723-734,[0723:ccafd];2


Climate change can affect forests by altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of fire, drought, introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, or landslides ...

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