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Selection: Dosio:A [10 articles] 

Publications by author Dosio:A.

Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

International Journal of Climatology (09 October 2017),


As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized ...


Mediterranean habitat loss under future climate conditions: assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Applied Geography, Vol. 75 (2016), pp. 83-92,


[Highlights] [::] The Mediterranean climate domain is projected to loss 11–25% of its current extent. [::] Projected losses of the Mediterranean climate are due to shifts of the arid domain. [::] The Mediterranean domain is projected to shift by 53–121% of its current size. [::] These changes are projected to affect 15–23% of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 sites. [Abstract] The Mediterranean basin is a global hotspot of biological diversity and the most rich biodiversity region in Europe. Nevertheless, climate-driven habitat loss is one of the most serious ...


Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 119, No. 22. (27 November 2014), pp. 12,500-12,512,


An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is ...


Projections of climate change indices of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of bias-adjusted high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate models

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 121, No. 10. (27 May 2016), pp. 2015JD024411-5511,


Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate ...


Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: evaluation on the present climate

Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, No. D16. (18 August 2011),


A statistical bias correction technique is applied to a set of high-resolution climate change simulations for Europe from 11 state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the project ENSEMBLES. Modeled and observed daily values of mean, minimum and maximum temperature and total precipitation are used to construct transfer functions for the period 1961–1990, which are then applied to the decade 1991–2000, where the results are evaluated. By using a large ensembles of model runs and a long construction period, we take into ...


Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: analysis of the climate change signal

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, No. D17. (16 September 2012), D17110,


A statistical bias correction technique is applied to twelve high-resolution climate change simulations of temperature and precipitation over Europe, under the SRES A1B scenario, produced for the EU project ENSEMBLES. The bias correction technique is based on a transfer function, estimated on current climate, which affects the whole Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of variables, and which is assumed constant between the current and future climate. The impact of bias correction on 21st Century projections, their inter-model variability, and the climate change ...


Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 16, No. 1. (2016), pp. 21-30,


This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with ...


Climate impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project

edited by J. C. Ciscar


The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison ...


  1. Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., Wei, T., 2012. Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in European Economies. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 959-968. .
  2. Alley, R.B., Whillans, I.M., 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254 (5034), 959–963. .
  3. Anstey, J., Davini, P., Gray, L., Woollings, T., 2012. Multi-model analysis of winter blocking and tropospheric jet variability: The roles of horizontal and vertical resolution. Submitted to J.

Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 118, No. 4. (December 2013), pp. 1732-1747,


In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected ...


Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment

In Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects (May 2013), pp. 87-96,


The JRC PESETA II study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic CGE model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure). The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across EU regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific ...


  1. Brown,S., Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A., Hinkel, J., Watkiss, P., 2011. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise in Europe and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation. Summary of Results from the EC RTD ClimateCost Project. In Watkiss, P., (Editor), 2011. The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. Published by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, 2011. ISBN 978-91-86125-35-6.
  2. Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2012. Modelling impacts of climate change on forest
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