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Selection: Caudullo:G [28 articles] 

Publications by author Caudullo:G.

Mediterranean habitat loss under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change projections - Assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Vol. 28547 EN (2017),


[Executive summary] This report describes the main findings of Task 10, Mediterranean habitat loss, of the Peseta III project (Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Europe, focusing on Extremes, Adaptation and the 2030s). Using an approach that integrates results from 11 sectors, the main objective of the Peseta III project is to make a consistent multi-sectorial assessment of the projected impacts of climate change in Europe. [\n] The Mediterranean region is one of the 36 global hotspots of biological diversity [1] and the most ...


Chorological maps for the main European woody species

Data in Brief, Vol. 12 (June 2017), pp. 662-666,


A novel chorological data compilation for the main European tree and shrub species is presented. This dataset was produced by combining numerous and heterogeneous data collected from 20th century atlas monographs providing complete species distribution maps, and from more recent national to regional atlases, occurrence geodatabases and scientific literature. The dataset is composed of numerous species distribution maps available in geographical information system (GIS) format, created by compiling, evaluating and synthesizing data of all collected sources. The geometry of the individual ...


Robust modelling of the impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of forest tree species

Keywords: abies-alba   array-of-factors   artificial-neural-networks   bioclimatic-predictors   change-factor   climate-change   data-uncertainty   diversity   environmental-modelling   europe   extrapolation-uncertainty   featured-publication   forest-resources   free-scientific-knowledge   free-scientific-software   free-software   fuzzy   gdal   genetic-diversity   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integration-techniques   mastrave-modelling-library   maximum-habitat-suitability   modelling-uncertainty   multiplicity   peseta-series   python   regional-climate-models   relative-distance-similarity   robust-modelling   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   spatial-disaggregation   sres-a1b   supervised-training   unsupervised-training  


[::] In Europe, forests play a strategic multifunctional role, serving economic, social and environmental purposes. However, their complex interaction with climate change is not yet well understood. [::] The JRC PESETA project series proposes a consistent multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change in Europe. [::] Within the PESETA II project, a robust methodology is introduced for modelling the habitat suitability of forest tree species (2071-2100 time horizon). [::] Abies alba (the silver fir) is selected as case study: a main European tree ...


  1. European Commission, 2013. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions - A new EU forest strategy: for forests and the forest based sector. No. COM(2013) 659 final. Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. , INRMM-MiD:12642065 .
  2. European Commission, 2013. Commission staff working document accompanying the document: Communication from the commission to

Mediterranean habitat loss under future climate conditions: assessing impacts on the Natura 2000 protected area network

Applied Geography, Vol. 75 (2016), pp. 83-92,


[Highlights] [::] The Mediterranean climate domain is projected to loss 11–25% of its current extent. [::] Projected losses of the Mediterranean climate are due to shifts of the arid domain. [::] The Mediterranean domain is projected to shift by 53–121% of its current size. [::] These changes are projected to affect 15–23% of the Mediterranean Natura 2000 sites. [Abstract] The Mediterranean basin is a global hotspot of biological diversity and the most rich biodiversity region in Europe. Nevertheless, climate-driven habitat loss is one of the most serious ...


European atlas of forest tree species

Keywords: bioeconomy   chorology   classification   climate   constrained-spatial-multi-frequency-analysis   data-heterogeneity   data-integration   data-uncertainty   disasters   disturbances   ecological-zones   ecology   ecosystem-services   europe   floods   forest-fires   forest-pests   forest-resources   free-software   geospatial   geospatial-semantic-array-programming   gis   gnu-bash   gnu-linux   gnu-octave   habitat-suitability   integrated-modelling   integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management   integration-techniques   knowledge-integration   landslides   mastrave-modelling-library   modelling-uncertainty   open-data   paleoecology   relative-distance-similarity   reproducible-research   review   science-policy-interface   science-society-interface   semantic-array-programming   semantic-constraints   semantics   semap   software-uncertainty   soil-erosion   soil-resources   species-distribution   tree-species   uncertainty   water-resources   windstorm  


[Excerpt] The European Atlas of Forest Tree Species is the first comprehensive publication of such a unique and essential environmental resource, that is, our trees. Leading scientists and forestry professionals have contributed in the many stages of the production of this atlas, through the collection of ground data on the location of tree species, elaboration of the distribution and suitability maps, production of the photographic material and compilation of the different chapters. The European Atlas of Forest Tree Species is both ...


European forest ecosystems - State and trends

Vol. 5/2016 (21 March 2016),


[Executive summary] The importance of forests with regard to supporting human needs is considerable. [\n] Forests are rich in biodiversity and valuable for recreation, water regulation and soil protection. [\n] As well as for providing timber and other non-wood forest products, forests are important for mitigating climate change and for the renewable energy sector. [\n] Forest ecosystems are exposed to a range of environmental, economic and social pressures that challenge their sustainability. The forest sector is influenced by the unprecedented pressures arising from climate change and the growing demands of society on natural resources. ...


  1. Agenda 21, 2016. , accessed 25 February 2016.
  2. Adams, M. A., 2013. Mega-fires, tipping points and ecosystem services: Managing forests and woodlands in an uncertain future. Forest Ecology and Management, 294, 250–261. .
  3. Aggestam, F., Weiss, G., 2011. An updated and further elaborated policy database and a tested prototype of policy analysis interface for ToSIA, EFI Technical Report 38, European Forest Institute, Joensuu.

State of Europe's forests 2015



The Summary for Policy Makers is a brief document based on information included in the “State of Europe’s Forests 2015”report. This document off ers a comprehensive overview of European forests, their current status, trends and policy responses related to them, as well as an insight into sustainable forest management (SFM) in Europe. [\n] The State of Europe’s Forests 2015 report will, along with other publications, serve as background information for political discussions on future opportunities and challenges, and the associated political responses. This report is focused on the current status and ...


  1. Alberdi, I., Michalak, R., Fischer, C., Gasparini, P., Brändli, U.-B., Tomter, S.M., Kuliesis, A., Snorrason, A., Redmond, J., Hernández, L., Cañellas, I., Lanz, A., Vidondo, A., Stoyanov, N., Stoyanova, M., Vestman, M., Barreiro, S., Vidal, C. (Submitted). A common FAWS definition is of major importance for the results of any simulation of the European Forest projections. Annals of Forest Science.
  2. Berg, A., Ehnström, B., Gustafsson, L., Hallingbäck, T., Jonsell, M., Weslien, J., 1994. Threatened

Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests: case studies on large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella) under present and future climate conditions in European forests

EPPO Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 2. (1 August 2015), pp. 273-281,


Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their negative effects could be exacerbated by climate change. This paper illustrates how species distribution modelling integrated with host tree species distribution data can be used to assess forest vulnerability to this threat. Two case studies are used: large pine weevil (Hylobius abietis L) and horse-chestnut leaf miner (Cameraria ohridella Deschka & Dimič) both at pan-European level. The proposed approach integrates information from different sources. Occurrence data of insect pests ...

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Applying Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for a reproducible set of bioclimatic indices in Europe

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 7, No. 2. (2014), 877975,


Bioclimate-driven regression analysis is a widely used approach for modelling ecological niches and zonation. Although the bioclimatic complexity of the European continent is high, a particular combination of 12 climatic and topographic covariates was recently found able to reliably reproduce the ecological zoning of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for forest resources assessment at pan-European scale, generating the first fuzzy similarity map of FAO ecozones in Europe. The reproducible procedure followed to derive this collection of ...

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Supplementary materials for: a proposal for an integrated modelling framework to characterise habitat pattern



In Estreguil et al. (Environ Modell Softw 52, 176-191, 2014), an integrated modelling framework is proposed to characterise habitat pattern. The modelling approach is there exemplified by deriving a set of twelve indices aggregated into four categories: general landscape composition, habitat morphology, edge interface and connectivity. The easy and reproducible computability is ensured with the integrated use of publicly available software (GUIDOS free-download software, Conefor free software) and of newly programmed tools. A statistical analysis is then conducted using classical linear ...


Assessing the potential distribution of insect pests under current and future climatic conditions in European forests using host data

In EFSA-EPPO Joint Workshop on Data collection and information sharing in plant health (April 2014), 16


In this study we propose a methodology for assessing forest vulnerability to insect pests at pan-European level. Two insect pests are used for testing and validating a methodology that could be extended to other forest insect pests. Our results highlight the strengths of the approach, facilitate information sharing with decision makers and discuss the limitations, including data availability of forests insect pests. Forest insect pests represent a serious threat to European forests and their effects could be exacerbated by warmer climatic conditions. ...


Connectivity of Natura 2000 forest sites in Europe

F1000Posters, Vol. 2014, No. 5. (Jun 2014), 485,


[Background/Purpose]: In the context of the European Biodiversity policy, the Green Infrastructure Strategy is one supporting tool to mitigate fragmentation, inter-alia to increase the spatial and functional connectivity between protected and unprotected areas. The Joint Research Centre has developed an integrated model to provide a macro-scale set of indices to evaluate the connectivity of Natura 2000 network, which forms the backbone of a Green Infrastructure for Europe. The model allows a wide assessment and comparison to be performed across country in terms ...


  1. Bennett, J., 2010. OpenStreetMap. Packt Publishing. ISBN: 978-1-84719-750-4
  2. Bennett, G., Bento Pais, R., Berry, P Didicescu, P. S., Fichter, M., Hlavᡠ, V., Hoellen, K., Jones-Walters, L., Miko, L., Onida, M., Plesník, J., Smith, D., Wakenhut, F., 2010. Green Infrastructure Implementation: Proceedings of the European Commission Conference 19 November 2010. (Ed: Karhu, J.). European Commission, 28 pp.
  3. de Rigo, D., 2012. Applying semantic constraints to array programming: the

Forest landscape pattern in a nutshell: local and continental applications of a four-families index set

In 16th International Symposium on Problems of Landscape Ecological Research - Landscape Ecology: From Theory to Practice (2012), pp. 12-13


[Excerpt] Measuring and monitoring landscape habitat fragmentation are an important first step to further study the relationship between pattern and ecological processes. This paper presents a standardised set of indices to characterise pattern and its application at varying spatial scales. A total of twelve indices is organised into four main families –general landscape composition, habitat morphology, edge interface mosaic context and connectivity –. Their implementation is based on three conceptual models which are partly revisited and combined (MSPA from GUIDOS software, Probability ...


Connectivity of Natura 2000 forest sites - Executive report

Reference Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. EUR – Scientific and Technical Research, Vol. 26087, No. JRC 83104. (2013)


The newly adopted Green Infrastructure Strategy is a key step in implementing targets of the European Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 (EBS). This study responds to policy needs for target 2 on ecosystems conditions and services, target 1 on implementing and enhancing coherence of the Natura 2000 network and sub-target 3b on integrating environmental concerns in forest management. Protected areas such as Natura 2000 sites form the backbone of Green Infrastructure. Their connectivity and integration in the unprotected landscape are essential to ...


  1. Bennet, J., 2010. OpenStreetMap: be your own cartographer. Birmingham, UK: PCKT. ISBN 978-1-847197-50-4
  2. Bennett, G., and Mulongoy, K.J., 2006. Review of experience with ecological networks, corridors and buffer zones. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal, Technical Series no. 23, 100 pages. ISBN: 92-9225-042-6
  3. Bergsten, A., Bodin, O., Ecke, F., 2013. Protected areas in a landscape dominated by logging – A connectivity analysis that integrates varying protection

Climate impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II project

edited by J. C. Ciscar


The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison ...


  1. Aaheim, A., Amundsen, H., Dokken, T., Wei, T., 2012. Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in European Economies. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 959-968. .
  2. Alley, R.B., Whillans, I.M., 1991. Changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 254 (5034), 959–963. .
  3. Anstey, J., Davini, P., Gray, L., Woollings, T., 2012. Multi-model analysis of winter blocking and tropospheric jet variability: The roles of horizontal and vertical resolution. Submitted to J.

Supporting EFSA assessment of the EU environmental suitability for exotic forestry pests: final report

EFSA Supporting Publications, Vol. 11, No. 3. (19 March 2014), 434E,


An updated series of distribution maps of more than 50 taxa, mainly of forest tree species, is presented along with the description of involved materials, inventory data and ancillary datasets, data-processing and modelling methods. Different methodologies are discussed and corresponding specific maps are presented for supporting the assessment on emerging plant pest risks. Updated maps of taxa habitat suitability are also presented. Maps, material and methods for supporting the risk assessment on Phytophthora ramorum for the European territory and for supporting ...


  1. Abelleira, A., Picoaga, A., Mansilla, J. P., Aguin, O., 2011. Detection of Bursaphelenchus Xylophilus, Causal Agent of Pine Wilt Disease on Pinus pinaster in Northwestern Spain. Plant Disease 95 (6), 776.
  2. Athar, M., Nasir, S. M., 2005. Taxonomic perspective of plant species yielding vegetable oils used in cosmetics and skin care products. African Journal of Biotechnology 4 (1) 36-44.
  3. Badal, E., 2001. La recolección de piñas durante

A proposal for an integrated modelling framework to characterise habitat pattern

Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 52 (February 2014), pp. 176-191,


[Highlights] [::] Habitat pattern characterisation as methodological guidance for fragmentation assessments (applied in Europe). [::] Reproducible integration of three landscape models with GIS and semantic array programming. [::] Four families indices: landscape composition, edge interface, habitat morphology and connectivity. [::] New indices: edge interface context of morphological shapes; Power Weighted Probability of Dispersal family for connectivity. [::] Nonlinear statistical correlation analysis based on Brownian Distance Correlation. [Abstract] Harmonized information on habitat pattern, fragmentation and connectivity is one among the reporting needs of the biodiversity policy agenda. This paper ...


Forest landscape in Europe: pattern, fragmentation and connectivity

Vol. 25717, No. JRC 77295. (2013),


The JRC demonstrated the feasibility to assess and report in a harmonized manner, forest landscape pattern and fragmentation in Europe, on the basis of an easily reproducible set of indices. Results were used in the Forest EUROPE, UN ECE and FAO joint ministerial reporting process on the protection of forests in Europe where data on forest pattern do not exist from national forest inventories. In the EU, 40% of the forest lands are within a 100m distance from other lands, thus ...


Continental-scale living forest biomass and carbon stock: a robust fuzzy ensemble of IPCC Tier 1 maps for Europe

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, Vol. 413 (2013), pp. 271-284,


Forest ecosystems play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon are therefore crucial for designing and implementing effective sustainable forest management options and forest related policies. In this contribution, we present European-wide maps of forest biomass and carbon stock spatially disaggregated at 1km x 1km. The maps originated from a spatialisation improvement of the IPCC methodology for estimating the forest biomass at IPCC Tier 1 level (IPCC-T1). [\n] Using a categorical ...

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Modelling the connectivity of Natura 2000 sites and their integration in the wider landscape

In GI_Forum 2013 – Creating the GISociety (2013), pp. 508-511,


Within the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2020 (EC 2011), the Green Infrastructure (GI) is introduced as one supporting tool to increase spatial and functional connectivity between natural protected and un-protected areas, and to improve landscape permeability (DG ENV. 2012). Natura 2000 (N2K) sites network, designated under the “Habitat” Directive (EC, 1992) and the “Bird” Directive (EC 2010), will form the backbone of GI. Connectivity is defined as a combined product of structural and functional connectivity, i.e. the effect of physical landscape ...


Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment

In Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects (May 2013), pp. 87-96,


The JRC PESETA II study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic CGE model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure). The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across EU regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific ...


  1. Brown,S., Nicholls, R.J., Vafeidis, A., Hinkel, J., Watkiss, P., 2011. The Impacts and Economic Costs of Sea Level Rise in Europe and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation. Summary of Results from the EC RTD ClimateCost Project. In Watkiss, P., (Editor), 2011. The ClimateCost Project. Final Report. Volume 1: Europe. Published by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, 2011. ISBN 978-91-86125-35-6.
  2. Camia, A., Libertà, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2012. Modelling impacts of climate change on forest

Integrated modeling of large scale forest patterns and connectivity of protected areas and relevance in the context of ecosystem services and climate change

In FORECOM: Forest cover changes in mountainous regions - drivers, trajectories and implications (2013)


The mitigation of ecosystem fragmentation is important in Target 2 of the new European Biodiversity strategy to 2020, aiming at the maintenance and enhancement of ecosystem services (e.g. habitat provision, disturbance regulation, climate change mitigation). Better knowledge on patterns, fragmentation processes and functional connectivity of focal ecosystem is needed within and between protected areas as well as in the wider country side. An overview of JRC activities is given on tools, models and applications for a European-wide improved and harmonised ...


A European map of living forest biomass and carbon stock

Reference Report by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. EUR - Scientific and Technical Research, Vol. 25730 (2012),


Forest ecosystems have a key role in the global carbon cycle and are considered large and persistent carbon sinks. The CO2 fixed by photosynthesis is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle, and forests play a determinant role in this process. Therefore, spatially explicit data and assessments of forest biomass and carbon is of paramount importance for the design and implementation of effective sustainable forest management options and forest related policies at the European level. The aim of ...


State of Europe's forests, 2011: status & trends in sustainable forest management in Europe



The State of Europe’s Forests 2011 report provides a comprehensive, up-to-date description of the status and trends of forests and forest management in Europe. The report aims to stimulate sound policy decisions on forests and forest-related issues in Europe by providing objective and harmonized data for FOREST EUROPE’s Signatories. This Summary for Policy Makers presents a compact and comprehensive overview of status and trends, as well as challenges and opportunities for forests, forest policy and forest management in Europe. The report is structured ...


Toward open science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for integrated environmental modelling

Geophysical Research Abstracts In European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2013, Vol. 15 (2013), 13245,


[Excerpt] Interfacing science and policy raises challenging issues when large spatial-scale (regional, continental, global) environmental problems need transdisciplinary integration within a context of modelling complexity and multiple sources of uncertainty. This is characteristic of science-based support for environmental policy at European scale, and key aspects have also long been investigated by European Commission transnational research. Approaches (either of computational science or of policy-making) suitable at a given domain-specific scale may not be appropriate for wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) and ...


Mapping European forest tree species distribution to support pest risk assessment

Bioforsk FOKUS In Advancing risk assessment models for invasive alien species in the food chain: contending with climate change, economics and uncertainty, Vol. 7, No. 10. (2012)


Establishment and spread of plant pests and diseases depends on many ecological factors among which the availability and distribution of host plants plays a key role. Therefore, accurate information on the distribution of forest tree species is crucial for risk assessment of forest pests and diseases. Our project focuses on mapping the distribution of over 200 tree species in Europe on the basis of data provided by the National Forest Inventories (NFIs) of European countries at 1 km spatial resolution. Data provided by ...


Ungulate damage and silviculture in the Cansiglio Forest (Veneto Prealps, NE Italy)

Journal for Nature Conservation, Vol. 10, No. 4. (January 2003), pp. 233-241,


The Cansiglio Forest, situated in the Veneto Prealps, is of particular naturalistic and landscape interest, going back to the times of the Most Serene Republic of Venice. Its long silvicultural tradition, which is now even more “near to nature”, remains unaltered. Over the last century there has been a considerable increase in the number of ungulates. This is partly due to prohibition of hunting since the beginning of the 20th century throughout the territory. It has therefore become necessary to survey ...


Reporting on European forest fragmentation: standardized indices and web map services

IEEE Earthzine, Vol. 5, No. 2. (2012), 384031


This paper responds to the need for improved reporting and methodology reproducibility on forest fragmentation as underlined in the biodiversity policy context. The fragmentation of a focal ecosystem is conceptualized from a landscape pattern characterization based on three publicly available landscape models (Morphological Spatial Pattern application of the GUIDOS free download software, Landscape Mosaic Pattern, Conefor Sensinode free open source software) that were partly combined. A set of indices were derived and organized into five main families: two indices on general landscape ...

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