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Selection: Araújo:MB [12 articles] 

Publications by author Araújo:MB.

The concept of potential natural vegetation: an epitaph?

Journal of Vegetation Science, Vol. 21, No. 6. (December 2010), pp. 1172-1178,


We discuss the usefulness of the concept of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV), which describes the expected state of mature vegetation in the absence of human intervention. We argue that it is impossible to model PNV because of (i) the methodological problems associated to its definition and (ii) the issues related to the ecosystems dynamics.We conclude that the approach to characterizing PNV is unrealistic and provides scenarios with limited predictive power. In places with a long-term human history, interpretations of PNV need ...


Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (October 2006), pp. 1704-1711,


[Aim]  Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications. [Location]  The Western Cape of South Africa. [Methods]  We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential ...


BIOMOD - A platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

Ecography, Vol. 32, No. 3. (1 June 2009), pp. 369-373,


BIOMOD is a computer platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, enabling the treatment of a range of methodological uncertainties in models and the examination of species-environment relationships. BIOMOD includes the ability to model species distributions with several techniques, test models with a wide range of approaches, project species distributions into different environmental conditions (e.g. climate or land use change scenarios) and dispersal functions. It allows assessing species temporal turnover, plot species response curves, and test the strength of species interactions ...


Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe

Science, Vol. 310, No. 5752. (25 November 2005), pp. 1333-1337,


Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, “surplus land” ...


Individualistic vs community modelling of species distributions under climate change

Ecography, Vol. 32, No. 1. (1 February 2009), pp. 55-65,


Studies investigating the consequences of future climate changes on species distributions usually start with the assumption that species respond to climate changes in an individualistic fashion. This assumption has led researchers to use bioclimate envelope models that use present climate-range relationships to characterize species’ limits of tolerance to climate, and then apply climate-change scenarios to enable projections of altered species distributions. However, there are techniques that combine climate variables together with information on the composition of assemblages to enable projections that ...


Validation of species–climate impact models under climate change

Global Change Biology, Vol. 11, No. 9. (1 September 2005), pp. 1504-1513,


Increasing concern over the implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of species–climate envelope models to project species extinction risk under climate-change scenarios. However, recent studies have demonstrated significant variability in model predictions and there remains a pressing need to validate models and to reduce uncertainties. Model validation is problematic as predictions are made for events that have not yet occurred. Resubstituition and data partitioning of present-day data sets are, therefore, commonly used to test the predictive ...


Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability

Ecography, Vol. 27, No. 4. (August 2004), pp. 437-448,


Habitat suitability models can be generated using methods requiring information on species presence or species presence and absence. Knowledge of the predictive performance of such methods becomes a critical issue to establish their optimal scope of application for mapping current species distributions under different constraints. Here, we use breeding bird atlas data in Catalonia as a working example and attempt to analyse the relative performance of two methods: the Ecological Niche factor Analysis (ENFA) using presence data only and Generalised Linear ...


Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 33, No. 10. (1 October 2006), pp. 1677-1688,


Species distribution modelling is central to both fundamental and applied research in biogeography. Despite widespread use of models, there are still important conceptual ambiguities as well as biotic and algorithmic uncertainties that need to be investigated in order to increase confidence in model results. We identify and discuss five areas of enquiry that are of high importance for species distribution modelling: (1) clarification of the niche concept; (2) improved designs for sampling data for building models; (3) improved parameterization; (4) improved ...


A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe

Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment In Scenario-Based Studies of Future Land Use in Europe, Vol. 114, No. 1. (May 2006), pp. 57-68,


This paper presents a range of future, spatially explicit, land use change scenarios for the EU15, Norway and Switzerland based on an interpretation of the global storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that are presented in the special report on emissions scenarios (SRES). The methodology is based on a qualitative interpretation of the SRES storylines for the European region, an estimation of the aggregate totals of land use change using various land use change models and the allocation ...


Do we need land-cover data to model species distributions in Europe?

Journal of Biogeography, Vol. 31, No. 3. (1 March 2004), pp. 353-361,


Aim  To assess the influence of land cover and climate on species distributions across Europe. To quantify the importance of land cover to describe and predict species distributions after using climate as the main driver. Location  The study area is Europe. Methods  (1) A multivariate analysis was applied to describe land-cover distribution across Europe and assess if the land cover is determined by climate at large spatial scales. (2) To evaluate the importance of land cover to predict species distributions, we ...


Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 102, No. 23. (07 June 2005), pp. 8245-8250,


Climate change has already triggered species distribution shifts in many parts of the world. Increasing impacts are expected for the future, yet few studies have aimed for a general understanding of the regional basis for species vulnerability. We projected late 21st century distributions for 1,350 European plants species under seven climate change scenarios. Application of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List criteria to our projections shows that many European plant species could become severely threatened. ...


How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?

Science, Vol. 313, No. 5792. (08 September 2006), pp. 1396-1397,


The most recent and complex bioclimate models excel at describing species' current distributions. Yet, it is unclear which models will best predict how climate change will affect their future distributions. ...

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Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management - Meta-information Database.újo:MB

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