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Selection: Allen:MR [3 articles] 

Publications by author Allen:MR.

Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5[thinsp][deg]C

Nature Geoscience, Vol. advance online publication (18 September 2017),


The Paris Agreement has opened debate on whether limiting warming to 1.5 °C is compatible with current emission pledges and warming of about 0.9 °C from the mid-nineteenth century to the present decade. We show that limiting cumulative post-2015 CO2 emissions to about 200 GtC would limit post-2015 warming to less than 0.6 °C in 66% of Earth system model members of the CMIP5 ensemble with no mitigation of other climate drivers, increasing to 240 GtC with ambitious non-CO2 mitigation. We combine a simple climate–carbon-cycle model ...


IPCC fifth assessment synthesis report - Climate Change 2014 synthesis report

(1 November 2014)


The Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides an overview of the state of knowledge concerning the science of climate change, emphasizing new results since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 (AR4). The SYR synthesizes the main findings of the AR5 (IPCC) based on contributions from Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change), plus two additional IPCC reports ...


Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000

Nature, Vol. 470, No. 7334. (17 February 2011), pp. 382-385,


Human emissions of greenhouse gasses  and related warming  have been shown to be an influence on global and regional warming and on broad-scale precipitation changes. But so far, assessing the human imprint on specific weather events has proven difficult. Now, publicly contributed climate simulations are used to show that increased greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence during the catastrophic 2000 England and Wales floods. ...

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