From MFKP_wiki

Jump to: navigation, search


Modeling fire ignition patterns in Mediterranean urban interfaces

M. Elia, V. Giannico, R. Lafortezza, G. Sanesi

The rapid growth of built-up areas and infrastructure in the Mediterranean environment has resulted in the expansion of urban interfaces where fire can ignite and spread. Within this context, there is a need to understand spatial patterns of ignition distribution and the relative importance of influencing drivers. In response to this need we developed an analysis of fire ignition patterns using human and biophysical explanatory variables by firstly developing two different linear models to assess patterns of fire ignition points in terms of occurrence (presence/absence) and frequency (number of ignition points per area and secondly applying statistical tests to both models to evaluate the most important human and/or biophysical drivers influencing these patterns. The probability of ignition point occurrence and frequency were mapped using the predicted values of the two models in the Apulia region (southern Italy). Our findings revealed that dependent variables (fire ignition occurrence points and frequency) are negatively correlated with population density, but positively correlated for presence of urban areas with a significantly higher likelihood of ignition in cultivated (crop)land, forest, shrubland, grassland, and other natural spaces. The probability of ignition increased with elevation and slope. The maps show that the probability of ignition occurrence is relevant along the coast in the northern and southern parts of the region, especially in urban interfaces with a strong presence of shrubland and Mediterranean maquis. Ignition point frequency was predicted along the coast, particularly in the south and in some densely urbanized inland areas. By adopting the models, forest managers and decision makers may avail of the knowledge gained to design and promote sustainable fire management strategies in the Apulia region.


Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (17 May 2018), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1558-5 
Key: INRMM:14599046

Keywords

               

Article-Level Metrics (Altmetrics)
Digital Object Identifier


Available versions (may include free-access full text)

DOI, Pubget, PubMed (Search)

Versions of the publication are also available in Google Scholar.
Google Scholar code: GScluster:12441370150481497397

Works citing this publication (including grey literature)

An updated list of who cited this publication is available in Google Scholar.
Google Scholar code: GScites:12441370150481497397

Further search for available versions

Search in ResearchGate (or try with a fuzzier search in ResearchGate)
Search in Mendeley (or try with a fuzzier search in Mendeley)

Publication metadata

Bibtex, RIS, RSS/XML feed, Json, Dublin Core
Metadata search: CrossRef DOI, DataCite DOI

Digital preservation of this INRMM-MiD record

Internet Archive

Meta-information Database (INRMM-MiD).
This database integrates a dedicated meta-information database in CiteULike (the CiteULike INRMM Group) with the meta-information available in Google Scholar, CrossRef and DataCite. The Altmetric database with Article-Level Metrics is also harvested. Part of the provided semantic content (machine-readable) is made even human-readable thanks to the DCMI Dublin Core viewer. Digital preservation of the meta-information indexed within the INRMM-MiD publication records is implemented thanks to the Internet Archive.
The library of INRMM related pubblications may be quickly accessed with the following links.
Search within the whole INRMM meta-information database:
Search only within the INRMM-MiD publication records:
Full-text and abstracts of the publications indexed by the INRMM meta-information database are copyrighted by the respective publishers/authors. They are subject to all applicable copyright protection. The conditions of use of each indexed publication is defined by its copyright owner. Please, be aware that the indexed meta-information entirely relies on voluntary work and constitutes a quite incomplete and not homogeneous work-in-progress.
INRMM-MiD was experimentally established by the Maieutike Research Initiative in 2008 and then improved with the help of several volunteers (with a major technical upgrade in 2011). This new integrated interface is operational since 2014.